Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles
- Thread starter Lascaris
- Start date
North Japan is Best Japan! (It helps South Japan is an irradiated mess, to put it mildly, but still)
On that account the Soviets are likely better off they have troops on the Asiatic side of the Dardanelles and would be rather unlikely to leave willingly. That said even if they controlled both sides they'd still be in trouble any fleet coming out of the straits still has to go past Lemnos and the archipelago. Which means past the Greek navy and air force hiding between the islands and USN 6th fleet coming it to support them.
I short of suspect TTL US will be pressing the Greeks to extend their territorial waters to 12 NM as soon as the law of the seas allows it to make Soviet life more difficult.
Part 158
Baltic States, September 14th, 1944
Over 1.5 million Soviet soldiers with 3,000 tanks and more than 2,600 aircraft attacked to clear Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia of German forces. With the Germans outnumbered between 4 and 5 to 1 the only question was how fast the three Baltic countries would be occupied once more by the Soviets.
Peleliu, September 15th, 1944
The US III Amphibious Corps begun landing on the island. The Japanese defenders would hold out for more than two months inflicting over 8,000 casualties on the Americans. Out of about 11,000 Japanese only 300 would be captured alive.
Italy, September 17th, 1944
The Greek 5th Infantry Regiment was the first to enter Bologna. The soldiers of the five nations making up the US 5th Army had finally broken through the Apennines. The same day Albert Kesserling would order German army in Italy to pull back behind the Po river.
South Netherlands. September 17th, 1944
Operation Meteor begun with multiple Allied airdrops to seize bridges on the way to Arnhem. Further south the British 2nd Army spearheaded by the XXX Corps was simultaneously launching operation Comet to link with the Allied airborne forces. General O'Connor the commander of the 21st Army Group was not happy with the operation. But political pressure to use the airborne forces and coupled with support for the operation from Eisenhower had overcome his misgivings. Still with the decision taken to proceed O'Connor was doing his best for the operation to succeed and the first news from the front were promising. By nighttime the US 101st Airborne division had seized all its objectives on the Maas river including the important Nijmegen bridge. Further to the south the US 82nd Airborne had secured three out of the five bridges in was aimed at. Furthest to the north the British 1st Airborne Division, with only half its units airlifted in the first day had failed to capture the Arhnem bridge. The initial success though would be quickly met by German counterattacks spearheaded by heavy armor to which the paratroopers, lacking armored support of their own, were quite vulnerable.
Warsaw, September 18th, 1944
107 USAAF B-17s escorted by 137 P-51s came in to drop supplies on the resisting home army forces. It was the largest supply mission performed since the beginning of the uprising. But out of 1284 supply containers dropped only 512 would be recovered by the fighting Poles. And the Americans would not be back for a second mission. Meanwhile other western aircraft and Soviet Po-2s would continue delivering a trickle of supplies as the Poles fought on.
Serbia, September 19th, 1944
Kragujevac was liberated by the British 6th Armoured Division. The previous day Valjevo had been taken by the Partizans 1st Proleatarian Corps. The next day Arandelovac would be liberated by Chetnik units. With Allied divisions advancing both from the south and the east towards Belgrade and Serbia in revolt the German Army Group E was in full retreat with the Allied advance hindered more by supply problems than anything else.
South Netherlands. September 21st, 1944
Advance elements of the British XXX Corps linked up with the Polish airborne troops fighting around Arnhem. Over the following few days the Allies would fail to secure any significant crossing over the Rhine in the face of fierce German resistance. While the more optimistic German hopes of destroying the British 1st Airborne at Arnhem would be dashed the battle was still a German success overall.
Montenegro, September 21st, 1944
Podgorica was liberated by the advancing Greek army and Yugoslav resistance forces. The Allies were steadily gaining ground in Montenegro but at a slow pace particularly given the difficulties in moving supplies through Albania where bad roads and non existent railroads were coupled with continuing fighting between the resistance forces and the Balli Kombetar which was still estimated to have about 20,000 fighting men available within the Albanian borders. And to make things worse Albania was also in the receiving end of thousands of refugees from Kosovo, Tetovo and Epirus connected in one way or another to the Italian and German occupation.
France, September 22nd, 1944
Boulogne was liberated by the 3rd Canadian Division. Three days earlier the Allies had captured Brest taking three German divisions and 38,000 men prisoner. The Canadians would move on to attack Calais which would fall by the end of the month. This still left 115,000 Germans holding several fortified pockets in the French coasts. Spanish and French FFI troops, lacking mobility but with ample artillery would be designated by SHAEF to reduce them.
Serbia September 22nd, 1944
The Soviet 57th Army stormed into Voivodina driving down the Tamis river valley towards Pancevo and Belgrade. Further east the Soviets had already linked with the Greek A Infantry Corps attacking out of Vidin in the aftermath of the Bulgarian armistice, along the Danube. The Greeks and British had refused the Soviet offer to help south of the Danube, citing supply issues. The Soviets had not insisted with the Danube delimiting the areas of operation of the Allied Armies of the Orient and the 3rd and 2nd Ukrainian fronts.
Italy, September 24th, 1944
La Spezia was liberated by American forces. The Allied forces continued advancing all along the front.
Rovaniemi, September 25th, 1944
The divisions in the southern flank of the German 20th Mountain army successfully completed the first phase of their retreat from Soviet territory. It hadn't been a small accomplishment in four weeks they had managed to retreat for over 400 km over little roads and bad weather. But already the second phase of the retreat had begun with the Germans retreating north towards the German border. Of course if the German forces in Norway failed to hold back the Swedish army and the Norwegian ports fell to the Swedes what the 20th Mountain army managed or did not manage to do would prove irrelevant. But so far the Swedish army was advancing towards Oslo slowly and carefully, Its men while well trained were green in comparison to their German opponents and the Swedish high command was trying to minimize casualties and play it safe. But the Germans could not count on this continuing indefinitely as the Swedish soldiers and officers were quickly gaining experience in actual combat....
Caserta, Italy, September 26th, 1944
Five days earlier Josip Tito had flown to Moscow were he had met Stalin. What had transpired between them was unknown but now AVNOJ and the royal government in exile had finally come to agreement setting up a provisional government of Yugoslavia with Ivan Subasic as the new prime minister and Tito and Slobodan Jovanovic, the prime minister of the government in exile as deputy prime ministers. How the deal would work out, if it would work out remained to be seen, for the time being each side's army would remain seperate "for operational reasons". But at least they would not be killing each other any more. At least for a while.
Belgrade, September 29th, 1944
The tanks of the Yugoslav 2nd Cavalry Division under Draza Mihailovic became the first Allied unit to enter Belgrade. The Western forces were first almost at the nick of time, the Soviet 4th Mechanized Corps was already in Pancevo, a mere 20km to the north of Belgrade...
Over 1.5 million Soviet soldiers with 3,000 tanks and more than 2,600 aircraft attacked to clear Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia of German forces. With the Germans outnumbered between 4 and 5 to 1 the only question was how fast the three Baltic countries would be occupied once more by the Soviets.
Peleliu, September 15th, 1944
The US III Amphibious Corps begun landing on the island. The Japanese defenders would hold out for more than two months inflicting over 8,000 casualties on the Americans. Out of about 11,000 Japanese only 300 would be captured alive.
Italy, September 17th, 1944
The Greek 5th Infantry Regiment was the first to enter Bologna. The soldiers of the five nations making up the US 5th Army had finally broken through the Apennines. The same day Albert Kesserling would order German army in Italy to pull back behind the Po river.
South Netherlands. September 17th, 1944
Operation Meteor begun with multiple Allied airdrops to seize bridges on the way to Arnhem. Further south the British 2nd Army spearheaded by the XXX Corps was simultaneously launching operation Comet to link with the Allied airborne forces. General O'Connor the commander of the 21st Army Group was not happy with the operation. But political pressure to use the airborne forces and coupled with support for the operation from Eisenhower had overcome his misgivings. Still with the decision taken to proceed O'Connor was doing his best for the operation to succeed and the first news from the front were promising. By nighttime the US 101st Airborne division had seized all its objectives on the Maas river including the important Nijmegen bridge. Further to the south the US 82nd Airborne had secured three out of the five bridges in was aimed at. Furthest to the north the British 1st Airborne Division, with only half its units airlifted in the first day had failed to capture the Arhnem bridge. The initial success though would be quickly met by German counterattacks spearheaded by heavy armor to which the paratroopers, lacking armored support of their own, were quite vulnerable.
Warsaw, September 18th, 1944
107 USAAF B-17s escorted by 137 P-51s came in to drop supplies on the resisting home army forces. It was the largest supply mission performed since the beginning of the uprising. But out of 1284 supply containers dropped only 512 would be recovered by the fighting Poles. And the Americans would not be back for a second mission. Meanwhile other western aircraft and Soviet Po-2s would continue delivering a trickle of supplies as the Poles fought on.
Serbia, September 19th, 1944
Kragujevac was liberated by the British 6th Armoured Division. The previous day Valjevo had been taken by the Partizans 1st Proleatarian Corps. The next day Arandelovac would be liberated by Chetnik units. With Allied divisions advancing both from the south and the east towards Belgrade and Serbia in revolt the German Army Group E was in full retreat with the Allied advance hindered more by supply problems than anything else.
South Netherlands. September 21st, 1944
Advance elements of the British XXX Corps linked up with the Polish airborne troops fighting around Arnhem. Over the following few days the Allies would fail to secure any significant crossing over the Rhine in the face of fierce German resistance. While the more optimistic German hopes of destroying the British 1st Airborne at Arnhem would be dashed the battle was still a German success overall.
Montenegro, September 21st, 1944
Podgorica was liberated by the advancing Greek army and Yugoslav resistance forces. The Allies were steadily gaining ground in Montenegro but at a slow pace particularly given the difficulties in moving supplies through Albania where bad roads and non existent railroads were coupled with continuing fighting between the resistance forces and the Balli Kombetar which was still estimated to have about 20,000 fighting men available within the Albanian borders. And to make things worse Albania was also in the receiving end of thousands of refugees from Kosovo, Tetovo and Epirus connected in one way or another to the Italian and German occupation.
France, September 22nd, 1944
Boulogne was liberated by the 3rd Canadian Division. Three days earlier the Allies had captured Brest taking three German divisions and 38,000 men prisoner. The Canadians would move on to attack Calais which would fall by the end of the month. This still left 115,000 Germans holding several fortified pockets in the French coasts. Spanish and French FFI troops, lacking mobility but with ample artillery would be designated by SHAEF to reduce them.
Serbia September 22nd, 1944
The Soviet 57th Army stormed into Voivodina driving down the Tamis river valley towards Pancevo and Belgrade. Further east the Soviets had already linked with the Greek A Infantry Corps attacking out of Vidin in the aftermath of the Bulgarian armistice, along the Danube. The Greeks and British had refused the Soviet offer to help south of the Danube, citing supply issues. The Soviets had not insisted with the Danube delimiting the areas of operation of the Allied Armies of the Orient and the 3rd and 2nd Ukrainian fronts.
Italy, September 24th, 1944
La Spezia was liberated by American forces. The Allied forces continued advancing all along the front.
Rovaniemi, September 25th, 1944
The divisions in the southern flank of the German 20th Mountain army successfully completed the first phase of their retreat from Soviet territory. It hadn't been a small accomplishment in four weeks they had managed to retreat for over 400 km over little roads and bad weather. But already the second phase of the retreat had begun with the Germans retreating north towards the German border. Of course if the German forces in Norway failed to hold back the Swedish army and the Norwegian ports fell to the Swedes what the 20th Mountain army managed or did not manage to do would prove irrelevant. But so far the Swedish army was advancing towards Oslo slowly and carefully, Its men while well trained were green in comparison to their German opponents and the Swedish high command was trying to minimize casualties and play it safe. But the Germans could not count on this continuing indefinitely as the Swedish soldiers and officers were quickly gaining experience in actual combat....
Caserta, Italy, September 26th, 1944
Five days earlier Josip Tito had flown to Moscow were he had met Stalin. What had transpired between them was unknown but now AVNOJ and the royal government in exile had finally come to agreement setting up a provisional government of Yugoslavia with Ivan Subasic as the new prime minister and Tito and Slobodan Jovanovic, the prime minister of the government in exile as deputy prime ministers. How the deal would work out, if it would work out remained to be seen, for the time being each side's army would remain seperate "for operational reasons". But at least they would not be killing each other any more. At least for a while.
Belgrade, September 29th, 1944
The tanks of the Yugoslav 2nd Cavalry Division under Draza Mihailovic became the first Allied unit to enter Belgrade. The Western forces were first almost at the nick of time, the Soviet 4th Mechanized Corps was already in Pancevo, a mere 20km to the north of Belgrade...
I wonder if either the Allies and particularly the US, would see Norway and the possibility to help the Swedes and cutting out the German division withdrawing to Germany. And, to use their (even if stretched out) still enormous amphibian landing capacity and sent the Marines across the North Atlantic to Norway.
Also, if the British would think about or decide that, providing that would be enough time (as for to plan it and deploy) and if combat worthy to reach out to the Norwegian resistance and the Swedish government. Raising the possibility to send, (among others, I'd guess) the 1st Airborne to Norway to link up with the advancing Swedish Army...
Or, if perhaps, the Allies, would, if considered worth enough, the possibility to trap there those veterans Germans divisions, as for perhaps, they'd contemplate, to combine the two above mentioned hypotheticals operations in an Allied operation in Norway...
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So Meteor is a failure, but no where near as costly a one as OTL Market Garden. All things considered that’s likely the best probable outcome. It’s good to see that the British 1st airborne and the Polish airborne weren’t completely gutted. That could have ramifications going forward.
The Danube being the border would have interesting effects if it more than just most of Bulgaria and and Serbia. I don’t think it’ll go farther than that though.
The Danube being the border would have interesting effects if it more than just most of Bulgaria and and Serbia. I don’t think it’ll go farther than that though.
pls don't ban me
Monthly Donor
so the Danube is the agreed future iron curtain? does this mean Bulgaria will seize the entire Dobruja region or what?
also Vojvodina will stay to communist hungary?
also Vojvodina will stay to communist hungary?
On that note, guess Yugoslavia would be TTL's equivalent to Greece, with that in mind, now you mentioned it.
Honestly I wouldn't put too much stock in the Danube meaning anything outside of a strictly Yugoslavian context-IIRC, Soviet troops are already in Bulgaria.
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pls don't ban me
Monthly Donor
yes and no.
soviets are in Bulgaria but only on the black sea. the Wallies have occupied central-west Bulgaria and already said no to soviet troops entering said area.
they also control belgrade now. unless a korea happens to Bulgaria.
I mean, the trade-off might be "the USSR retreats from controlled areas in Yugoslavia, Bulgaria and West Constantinople, in exchange of which the US retreats back to the agreed-upon occupation borders in Germany".
pls don't ban me
Monthly Donor
i guess so.
i also think that Bulgaria would still be able to flex and meme about being the only losing country ever to gain stuff after the war. a bit more then otl? since they get the entire dobruja region instead of the southern part.
Honestly idk if the Americans would take that, German territory is a lot more useful than Balkan territory, no matter what the greeks think about it...
I do like how the conflict between the partisans and Chetniks are still very much fighting each other, and post WWII they would fight each other easily post war. As we know from otl the USSR probably has political feelers in Bulgaria and co too. It may be better (and easier) writing off Bulgaria as (at most) a neutral ally, and keeping more of Germany so if WWIII is to be fought they could move through Poland quicker.
For me Dobrujas fate is the biggest question mark here? I wouldn’t be surprised if Dobruja was used as a carrot to get the Bulgarians to align themselves with the West instead of being neutral. Alternatively maybe a Western Rump Romania would be preferred if Bulgaria looks like it might fall to communism soon or if they’re firm on their neutrality. All of this also assumes that the Soviets leave it and the Bulgarian coast. Which is going to take a big carrot in my mind. The Soviets aren’t gonna want to have another western leaning Navy in the Black Sea if they don’t have to. Especially with how western dominated the Baltic is going to be. The Allies would have to make a big and fast push into Germany to have enough territory that the Soviets would be willing to give up what they have.
If Dobruja is given in its entirety to Bulgaria I can see it setting of a series of ethnic cleansings. Dobrujan Romanians get settled in Transylvania, Hungarian Transylvanians get sent to Hungarian Vojvodina, and anybody who doesn’t want to be a Hungarian gets pushed into Yugoslavia.
I can’t see Bulgaria getting all of Dobruja and remaining neutral. Either out of gratitude or from the West making it a requirement of getting the territory.
The Danube also would split Hungary in half if we kept following it north which seems unlikely to me. Particularly if Bulgaria is going to be neutral and not western aligned. If I’m the Soviets I’m not a fan of using the Danube as a border anymore than I have to. I would like controlling so much off he Black Sea coast directly or through my puppets. And I’m not gonna want to give up half of Hungary.
Frankly I see things going like otl with Dobruja split between Romania and Bulgaria, both sides liked the split and if Romania is communist and Bulgaria is neutral I really don't see why the us and the USSR would change things. At most America would push for Romanian Dobruja to be Bulgarian so that Bulgaria would be more indebted to it but it doesn't sound like something fdr would do.
Like even though Romania gained all of Dobruja post WWII the treaty that gave Southern Dobruja to Bulgaria was well received by the Romanian public unlike the treaty that gave parts of Transylvania to Hungary.
Yeah I think the USSR/ittl Warsaw pact (it may not be signed in Warsaw) won't use the Danube, I think they'd rather ensure that the Balkans will be dominated by the ussr as much as possible.
Like I think ittl war plans would be focused on how to keep the Balkan theatre in the Balkans/prevent a breakthrough from either side, as American war plans would be to occupy as much of the Soviets' time there (much like how Europe's last two big wars had a breakthrough there) and the Soviets plan to crush the Greeks and co.
I get the vibe this one is more of an in-between update, with most of its content being either OTL or logical continuation of the butterflies. The except to that is, of course, the WAllies beating the Soviets into Belgrade.
Usually, that would be mostly it, as who got to what first was the most important factor for where the Iron Curtain will be drawn and the Soviets simply don't hold enough of Yugoslavia to create their version of it. At most, they could try to somehow get enough of Bosnia and/or Croatia to turn these into Soviet puppets but even that strikes me as unlikely. The one caveat is that we are talking about the Chetniks and Tito here... ITTL the former were utterly outmaneuvered by the latter and even in a scenario where the Brits would have liberated Belgrade I could see them being able to snatch defeat from the jaws of history... Here they seem to be better organized and lead to some extent, although I get the sense there is still a clear gap to their disadvantage in that regard.
How it will all end up remain to be seen. If I had to guess I'd say Pierre II and the Chetniks will wound up being ITTL equivalent of the Greek Kingdom during the Greek Civil War: objectively pretty suboptimal, to say the least, proxies for the Western Bloc to have to work through, at least at first and until they became better organized, but not bad enough to bottle it despite holding most of the cards due to the WAllies getting there first. I could see a scenario where Tito find a way though...
Usually, that would be mostly it, as who got to what first was the most important factor for where the Iron Curtain will be drawn and the Soviets simply don't hold enough of Yugoslavia to create their version of it. At most, they could try to somehow get enough of Bosnia and/or Croatia to turn these into Soviet puppets but even that strikes me as unlikely. The one caveat is that we are talking about the Chetniks and Tito here... ITTL the former were utterly outmaneuvered by the latter and even in a scenario where the Brits would have liberated Belgrade I could see them being able to snatch defeat from the jaws of history... Here they seem to be better organized and lead to some extent, although I get the sense there is still a clear gap to their disadvantage in that regard.
How it will all end up remain to be seen. If I had to guess I'd say Pierre II and the Chetniks will wound up being ITTL equivalent of the Greek Kingdom during the Greek Civil War: objectively pretty suboptimal, to say the least, proxies for the Western Bloc to have to work through, at least at first and until they became better organized, but not bad enough to bottle it despite holding most of the cards due to the WAllies getting there first. I could see a scenario where Tito find a way though...