Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles

Interesting developments. We have (or will have) a minor civil war in Albania but the National Army will probably win, since all the neighbouring countries will be non communist.
Which is just as well, especially with how Hoxha basically set up a regime which was "more Maoist than Mao" (literally splitting over his detente with Nixon) as well.
 
On top of what others have said:

-In addition to how the Québec conference went the snippets of Constantinople we got look good for the Greeks. The Soviet presence on the European side of the straits is being described as ''a handful of troops'' and the decision of members of different demographics in terms of which shore they want to be on both improve the Greeks' odds of a successful referendum for Enosis as well as indicate that the Constantinopolitans themselves are expecting the old city to be Greek once more in the short term.
-The Soviets not even trying in Finland is another factor that is likely to shorten the amount of time it will take for the Americans to sour on them and adopt Churchill's view when it comes to the Kremlin (unlike what is commonly thought FDR was actually very much moving toward the ''The bastards are betraying their word!'' side of things in his last days before his death, it wasn't just Truman having a different take).
-The soviets do some to have some presence in Bulgaria beyond just Varna now but it also noted that most of their forces in the sector are still pushing westwards. With the WAllies themselves pushing northward the situation is fuzzy in that sector. More to see later I guess.
-There does seem to be chances for an early breakthrough in Italy. Fingers crossed.
-With the Soviets actually feeling obligated to send help to the Home Army, and the fact that them still being swinging means that the Red Army is starting to loose increasingly precious time staying put, I am starting to think they might actually survive this time around. That would be interesting...
 
-The Soviets not even trying in Finland is another factor that is likely to shorten the amount of time it will take for the Americans to sour on them and adopt Churchill's view when it comes to the Kremlin (unlike what is commonly thought FDR was actually very much moving toward the ''The bastards are betraying their word!'' side of things in his last days before his death, it wasn't just Truman having a different take).
On that note, I could see the Soviet-installed regimes in Hungary and East Germany be more explicitly socialist by being outright revivals of the short-lived Hungarian Soviet Republic and the Free Socialist Republic of Germany (which the Spartakists did proclaim) after WW1 instead of forming the "Hungarian People's Republic" (or initially proclaiming the "(Second) Hungarian Republic") or "German Democratic Republic" with the example of not even pretending in Finland in mind.
 
On that note, I could see the Soviet-installed regimes in Hungary and East Germany be more explicitly socialist by being outright revivals of the short-lived Hungarian Soviet Republic and the Free Socialist Republic of Germany (which the Spartakists did proclaim) after WW1 instead of forming the "Hungarian People's Republic" (or initially proclaiming the "(Second) Hungarian Republic") or "German Democratic Republic" with the example of not even pretending in Finland in mind.
I can see where you are coming from but IMO Finland has more political and emotional importance for Stalin, hence why he made a mistake there he probably won't elsewhere. The Winter War made him look like a fool on the world stage, and while nobody was crazy enough to point it out inside Russia you can be sure he was aware of that... To end things, or at least so he thinks, by putting in power the very puppet he was planning to install four years ago is a way to symbolically overwrite that and emotionally put it behind him. Its similar to how, both OTL and ITTL, he was being way less subtle then usual when it came to the Poles: he was a commissar on the front during the Miracle of the Vistula so he had a chip on his shoulder...

In comparaison he has no reason to be as emotionally invested with the Spartakists and Bela Kun. If anything they were Trotsky's boys and girls...
 
Britain, September 10th, 1944

Testing of the new Supermarine Spiteful, a heavily modified Spitfire with a laminar flow wing and a Griffon engine capable of reaching 777 km/h continued, the aircraft had made its first flight back in March. If all went well the first production Spiteful would fly in the coming January and Spitfire production lines would gradually convert to the newer variant afterwards.
Would the Seafang variant also see action with the BPF? Maybe alongeside the Firebrand?
 
Its similar to how, both OTL and ITTL, he was being way less subtle then usual when it came to the Poles: he was a commissar on the front during the Miracle of the Vistula so he had a chip on his shoulder...
And even in Poland, the Lublin Government still nominally had a non-communist Prime Minister even if Bierut was a Communist, unlike here in Finland.
 
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And even in Poland, the Lublin Government still nominally had a non-communist Prime Minister even if Bierut was a Communist, unlike here in Finland.
Yep, although I was thinking more about the behavior of Russia during the Warsaw Uprising, but Stalin has arguably an even greater chip on his shoulder in Finland due to the mess of the Winter War being fully is...

In OTL he swallowed Finlandisation because the resources needed to get to Helsinki would have cost too much elsewhere but in ITTL he had a better general to command that front at hand...
 
Considering that this provisional government by Finland is explicitly run by a Communist, the Cold War is going to start even quicker than OTL, isn’t it? Keep in mind that even IOTL, the initial governments of Hungary, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Bulgaria, and Romania were ostensibly headed by non-communists before full Sovietization occurred (Yugoslavia and Albania were explicitly headed by Communists but that was because they had their own native revolutions going on).
Finland is I think a bit of a special case here. If for no other reason who exactly in the Finnish political class does not look compromised from the point of view of Moscow in 1944? Not the socialists, certainly not the centrist and right wing parties.
Are British getting Bremen like Americans did OTL?
Possibly.
Well that’s about as good a deals as Finland was gonna get so I’m not gonna complain. I’m interested to see what happens on the minorities front. Hopefully it’s equally good for Finland
Why someone could potentially propose union of the Karelian SSR with the Democratic Republic. Given the 4 years of war that transpired it is unlikely. Still potentially the Karelian SSR is not folded back into Russia in 1956?
Please no Market Garden, please no Market Garden, please no Market Garden …
I'm of two minds about it but it looks to me that you can't just put squarely the blame on Montgomery and claim O'Connor would not launch it. Particularly given the amount of political pressure apparently existing to do something with the airborne forces.
I really wouldn’t be surprised if the National Army cooked up some False Flag attack by the LNC. None of her neighbors want the communists in charge so I can’t see them investigating much before supporting them.
Well for a different point of view the National army has at the moment about 15,000 men, the LNC about 40,000, Legalitari about 8,000. And then you have about 22,000 Ballists in Albania proper with another 9,000 in Kosovo and 5,000 in Tetovo, the Germans and Italians had a field day recruiting in Greek North Epirus TTL which explains the higher overall numbers. Now you could argue the Ballists join forces with the National army/Legalitati (Security battalions cough, cough). Only... the central tenet of their ideology is opposition to Greeks and Serbs and large numbers of its men are Greek and Yugoslav subjects not entirely welcome back to either country...
Even if having Kuusinen be the formal leader of the whole thing instead of being headed nominally by a non-communist (like Bela Miklos in Hungary, Benes in Czechoslovakia, or Georgiev in Bulgaria) is bound to be quite provocative.
Benes was more than a non-entity till 1948. Colonel-coup on the other hand... But leaving aside all other issues would would be a viable alternative in Finland? Kekkonen? Paasikivi despite being conservative, anticommunist and connected to the Lapua movement?
And it is not as if Churchill would encourage bavarian separatism, right ? It is not that he loves Germany so much that he wants more Germanies.
I don't know if I would go that far, although there was strong support for separatism within Bavaria, but Churchill would certainly be less willing to suppress monarchists.
Kuusinen means the Finish Democratic Republic set up during the Winter War is coming back which might have some interesting effects on historiography. It's notable that the Soviets aren't even pretending about the nature of the new government and have installed someone who left Finland in 1919.
It's not as if they have much better options arguably. Now as mentioned I do wonder what happens to the Karelian SSR a decade down the line...
Good to see that Constantinople is Greek held and interesting that ethnic sorting is already occurring.
Not Greek held per se but Western controlled for certain.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Soviets, when they take Hungary, explicitly proclaim a revival of the Hungarian Soviet Republic instead of keeping around the Second Hungarian Republic for a few years with the Finnish precedent in mind.
They could but this ups the ante even more...
Interesting developments. We have (or will have) a minor civil war in Albania but the National Army will probably win, since all the neighbouring countries will be non communist.
Concerning Constantinople, since Americans won the debate on the German occupation zones, it is fair to assume that the British arguments won in the case of Constantinople, which is good for Greece.
Probably... though it's still 1944. :angel:
Glad to see the Greek Army playing a significant part in the liberation of Yugoslavia.
Finally, Finland got a better than hoped for agreement in territorial terms BUT there will be a fully communist government. Oh boy, we are going to have a not so Cold War in the Baltic.
Time to look at the technical feasibility of these nuclear submarines the Swedes were designing in the 1950s... must have been the smallest SSNs ever designed.
Which is just as well, especially with how Hoxha basically set up a regime which was "more Maoist than Mao" (literally splitting over his detente with Nixon) as well.
That's true but I wouldn't count Xoxha out just yet.
On top of what others have said:

-In addition to how the Québec conference went the snippets of Constantinople we got look good for the Greeks. The Soviet presence on the European side of the straits is being described as ''a handful of troops'' and the decision of members of different demographics in terms of which shore they want to be on both improve the Greeks' odds of a successful referendum for Enosis as well as indicate that the Constantinopolitans themselves are expecting the old city to be Greek once more in the short term.
To a limited degree this was also happening in 1922-41, the Asian side being controlled by the Italians and the European side having at times even a Greek governor general. Post thay you had four VERY bad years for inter-communal relations. If you are Turkish do you want to take your chances with a likely Greek administration that may well be vindictive? On the reverse if you are Greek, after four years away from your house in the Asian shore you want to trust... the NKVD to protect you? When the Soviet government appears to have found some short of accommodation with the Turkish one?
-The Soviets not even trying in Finland is another factor that is likely to shorten the amount of time it will take for the Americans to sour on them and adopt Churchill's view when it comes to the Kremlin (unlike what is commonly thought FDR was actually very much moving toward the ''The bastards are betraying their word!'' side of things in his last days before his death, it wasn't just Truman having a different take).
-The soviets do some to have some presence in Bulgaria beyond just Varna now but it also noted that most of their forces in the sector are still pushing westwards. With the WAllies themselves pushing northward the situation is fuzzy in that sector. More to see later I guess.
There is that. Then there is that napkin Churchill and Stalin agreed over in Tehran. Which I'll note neither side has really broken yet.
-There does seem to be chances for an early breakthrough in Italy. Fingers crossed.
-With the Soviets actually feeling obligated to send help to the Home Army, and the fact that them still being swinging means that the Red Army is starting to loose increasingly precious time staying put, I am starting to think they might actually survive this time around. That would be interesting...
They did send help in the same timeframe in OTL so I wouldn't be making any big conclusions from this...

I can see where you are coming from but IMO Finland has more political and emotional importance for Stalin, hence why he made a mistake there he probably won't elsewhere. The Winter War made him look like a fool on the world stage, and while nobody was crazy enough to point it out inside Russia you can be sure he was aware of that... To end things, or at least so he thinks, by putting in power the very puppet he was planning to install four years ago is a way to symbolically overwrite that and emotionally put it behind him. Its similar to how, both OTL and ITTL, he was being way less subtle then usual when it came to the Poles: he was a commissar on the front during the Miracle of the Vistula so he had a chip on his shoulder...

In comparaison he has no reason to be as emotionally invested with the Spartakists and Bela Kun. If anything they were Trotsky's boys and girls...
Which if you are a communist in late 1944 is NOT a good thing. Hell in the battle of Athens at the very time they were fighting the British and Greek non-communists the communists still spent effort hunting down and killing... Trotskyists. Who were not even involved in the fighting.
Would the Seafang variant also see action with the BPF? Maybe alongeside the Firebrand?
Probably. My thoughts is that with Spiteful ready to enter production by the end of 1944, it takes the place in the production lines of Spitfire Mk 22 and Mk 24 with Mk 21 being the last Spitfire Griffon variant. Which means a production run of 360 Spitefuls. In the same fashion you could expect Seafire Mk 45/46/47 replaced by Seafang. Which means 195 Seafangs overall.

Yep, although I was thinking more about the behavior of Russia during the Warsaw Uprising, but Stalin has arguably an even greater chip on his shoulder in Finland due to the mess of the Winter War being fully is...

In OTL he swallowed Finlandisation because the resources needed to get to Helsinki would have cost too much elsewhere but in ITTL he had a better general to command that front at hand...
The Finns stopped his army OTL. Here much to my surprise when I start simulating the battles they did not, as ironically the delay of the offensive in the Karelian isthmus meant the Finns could not shift forces in time from the east to the west of lake Ladoga and ironically ended facing a somewhat stronger enemy...
 
Why someone could potentially propose union of the Karelian SSR with the Democratic Republic. Given the 4 years of war that transpired it is unlikely. Still potentially the Karelian SSR is not folded back into Russia in 1956?
Well, if Stalin's dead and the next head of the USSR wanted to stabilise Finland they could it to placate the Finnish people.
Not Greek held per se but Western controlled for certain.
To a limited degree this was also happening in 1922-41, the Asian side being controlled by the Italians and the European side having at times even a Greek governor general. Post thay you had four VERY bad years for inter-communal relations. If you are Turkish do you want to take your chances with a likely Greek administration that may well be vindictive? On the reverse if you are Greek, after four years away from your house in the Asian shore you want to trust... the NKVD to protect you? When the Soviet government appears to have found some short of accommodation with the Turkish one?
tbf if the old City is controlled by the West it is practically Greek to the eyes of the Turks, as Greek administration would be already spreading their roots and the turks would not trust the West to prefer them, a nation who had fought a war to gain full control over Constantinople and have killed ppl to skew the numbers to their favour, rather than the greeks, who have fought with them through the whole war.
There is that. Then there is that napkin Churchill and Stalin agreed over in Tehran. Which I'll note neither side has really broken yet.
but Stalin did break other napkin agreements and the such. Like I think FDR would at least be a little cautious at this point.
 
The Finns stopped his army OTL. Here much to my surprise when I start simulating the battles they did not, as ironically the delay of the offensive in the Karelian isthmus meant the Finns could not shift forces in time from the east to the west of lake Ladoga and ironically ended facing a somewhat stronger enemy...
Out of curiosity, what is your process for simulating battles?
 
Why someone could potentially propose union of the Karelian SSR with the Democratic Republic. Given the 4 years of war that transpired it is unlikely. Still potentially the Karelian SSR is not folded back into Russia in 1956?

It's not as if they have much better options arguably. Now as mentioned I do wonder what happens to the Karelian SSR a decade down the line...

I can see that going several different ways depending on what post war Relations with Finland are. Maybe it’s given to Finland as a reward for staying loyal, or a bribe to continue staying loyal. But that seems unlikely to happen soon as you said. If the Karelian SSR gets downgraded again I could see at least the land lost in the Winter War being given back if relations are warm, if A union is out of the question. Maybe some other areas with Karelian Majority. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Soviets try to prop it up as something like a sister Republic for Finland, to help repair relations though either. Honestly anything could happen so I’m interested to see what happens.

Well for a different point of view the National army has at the moment about 15,000 men, the LNC about 40,000, Legalitari about 8,000. And then you have about 22,000 Ballists in Albania proper with another 9,000 in Kosovo and 5,000 in Tetovo, the Germans and Italians had a field day recruiting in Greek North Epirus TTL which explains the higher overall numbers. Now you could argue the Ballists join forces with the National army/Legalitati (Security battalions cough, cough). Only... the central tenet of their ideology is opposition to Greeks and Serbs and large numbers of its men are Greek and Yugoslav subjects not entirely welcome back to either country...

This does make me wonder if there’s any truth to those “rumors” about recruiting though, for both groups. There’s certainly going to be Ballist members and groups more interested in saving their skin then in ideology. The Nationalists are likely the group more inclined to recruit as they’re low on manpower, but the the LNC are likely to be anti-Greek and anti-Serb seeing as they’re currently not communist so they might be the more attractive option. I know the Ballists were also anti communist but it likely comes down to the individual what ideology is important and what is flexible. For the groups fighting for their independence from Serbia in Kosovo and Tetovo, I imagine they’re more interested in getting support for their cause than supporting anyone else. The whole situation is messy.

I'm of two minds about it but it looks to me that you can't just put squarely the blame on Montgomery and claim O'Connor would not launch it. Particularly given the amount of political pressure apparently existing to do something with the airborne forces.

True, But Market Garden was Mongomory’s plan. This is the same guy who thought operation Comet was a good idea. I can’t see O’Conner coming up with the same thing, or planning it quite as badly. There’s a lot of evidence that people tried to tell Montgomery it was a bad idea. A smaller push towards the Ruhr while focusing on clearing the Scheldt estuary before the Germans can dig in seems like the best plan.

There are the political pressure to use the airborne though. I can’t see that changing at all. And they might be what dooms it (or something similar) to occur regardless of O’Conner plans. If it’s the same exact plan as OTL, if all of the Airborne drop day one and the 508th have clear orders on when to attack the Nijmegen bridge on day one you could possibly save the operation though. If the British airborne have more strength on day one they can probably Accomplish their goals faster and with fewer casualties, leading to them holding the bridge longer And if the Nijmegen bridge is already captured the XXX Corps saves an essential day and possibly gets to Arnhem fast enough to reinforce the bridgehead. It’s still bloody and costly but it might not be a complete fiasco like OTL

but Stalin did break other napkin agreements and the such. Like I think FDR would at least be a little cautious at this point.

I mean Stalin technically hasn’t crossed any lines yet. He might not have met the spirit of certain agreements (such as airdropping behind the Greeks in Biga) but he has met the letter. I do think that the WAllies have to be getting tired of him doing so though. Like that landing in Bulgaria can’t make FDR feel warm and fuzzy inside when he thinks about it hard. Sure they’re allies but it’s not a good sign when your ally repeatedly place troops in locations to assure your compliance. Honestly I wonder if after seeing it happen in Biga and Varna the WAllies don’t come up with some weird plan of attacking Sakhalin early to avoid another case of Soviet “claim jumping”. Probably not but it would be interesting.
 
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Out of curiosity, what is your process for simulating battles?
Very roughly. Take OTL battle/war that fits situation. Use Lanchester's square law to get OTL results modeled and have the general efficiency of both sides in the given situation. Take again Lanchester's square law with the results and input the altered forces involved. Et voila, the casualties of both sides. Little bit of tweaking and the formula can be used to produce casualties after x days of combat and rate of advance for same period calibrated from OTL results.

Perfect? Hardly so. But I'd think reasonably good for the purpose and certainly much better than inventing results out of thin air.
 
I can see that going several different ways depending on what post war Relations with Finland are. Maybe it’s given to Finland as a reward for staying loyal, or a bribe to continue staying loyal. But that seems unlikely to happen soon as you said. If the Karelian SSR gets downgraded again I could see at least the land lost in the Winter War being given back if relations are warm, if A union is out of the question. Maybe some other areas with Karelian Majority. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Soviets try to prop it up as something like a sister Republic for Finland, to help repair relations though either. Honestly anything could happen so I’m interested to see what happens.
Yeah exactly, I think not folding the Karelian republic in with the Russian SSR would be something the Finns would want wholeheartedly, to the point where I think they'd work with the Soviets for it. The Russians prob would make an enclave inside just to fuck things up via stuff like forcing the locals to vote to stay in the Russian SSR, but that's for another discussion.
I mean Stalin technically hasn’t crossed any lines yet. He might not have met the spirit of certain agreements (such as airdropping behind the Greeks in Biga) but he has met the letter. I do think that the WAllies have to be getting tired of him doing so though. Like that landing in Bulgaria can’t make FDR feel warm and fuzzy inside when he thinks about it hard. Sure they’re allies but it’s not a good sign when your ally repeatedly place troops in locations to assure your compliance. Honestly I wonder if after seeing it happen in Biga and Varna the WAllies don’t come up with some weird plan of attacking Sakhalin early to avoid another case of Soviet “claim jumping”. Probably not but it would be interesting.
Yeah the Kurils and Shakalin may not be given to the Soviets due to their actions in Turkey which would be interesting, but I do think the reason why they were given to the USSR was so that Japan knew that they couldn't accede to the soviets as everyone important was united against them. not to mention the icky justification for keeping

I do think that the Japanese would still surrender after the nukes tho, they would know the next nukes would be coming straight for Tokyo and Kyoto.
 
Yeah exactly, I think not folding the Karelian republic in with the Russian SSR would be something the Finns would want wholeheartedly, to the point where I think they'd work with the Soviets for it. The Russians prob would make an enclave inside just to fuck things up via stuff like forcing the locals to vote to stay in the Russian SSR, but that's for another discussion.

Yeah the Kurils and Shakalin may not be given to the Soviets due to their actions in Turkey which would be interesting, but I do think the reason why they were given to the USSR was so that Japan knew that they couldn't accede to the soviets as everyone important was united against them. not to mention the icky justification for keeping

I do think that the Japanese would still surrender after the nukes tho, they would know the next nukes would be coming straight for Tokyo and Kyoto.
A japanese surrender with no Soviett entry will depend on whether the ATL Hatanaka coup success. Wothout fear of sovietizarion some court members might support the Hatanaka attempt.
 
A japanese surrender with no Soviett entry will depend on whether the ATL Hatanaka coup success. Wothout fear of sovietizarion some court members might support the Hatanaka attempt.
that's true. I do think the high command would know that they're practically screwed at that point...
 
They could but this ups the ante even more...
On that note, it could also depend on the ferocity of the Hungarian resistance against the Soviets or if anything like Bela Miklos going over to the Soviets after Operation Panzerfaust or a similar operation still happens, now you mentioned it. If the Hungarians resist particularly fiercely and no Bela Miklos figure is found, I could see the possibility that, much like in Finland, the Soviets don't bother with a transitional Hungarian Republic or installing a non-communist figurehead at first and go directly to a revived Hungarian Soviet Republic.
 
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