No GNW (or “Peter goes South”)

Everybody has fun
367. Everybody has fun
We are having fun!”
‘Kindergarten cop
“The Chinese people have only family and clan solidarity, they do not have national spirit… they are just a heap of loose sand.”

Sun Yat-sen
“Yuan Shikai thought that it was human nature to tremble before a flashing knife and to go crazy for yellow gold. Both of these weapons he used to rule the empire.
Liang Qichao
“…must be impartial in thought as well as in action, must put a curb upon our sentiments as well as upon every transaction that might be construed as a preference of one party to the struggle before another.”
Woodrow Wilson
Between France and England the best thing is English Channel.”
Douglas Jerrold
“English is just poorly pronounced French.”
Clemenceau
We have no quarrel with the German nation,
One would not quarrel with a flock of sheep.
But, generation after generation,
They throw up leaders who disturb our sleep
.”
Alan Herbert​

China.
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The political events in China were somewhat similar to those in Russia. President Yuan Shikai was obliged to conduct the elections to the National Assembly in February 1913 and they ended up with a victory of KMT – "Chinese Nationalist Party". Song Jiaoren, an appointee of the party leader Sun Yat-sen, proved to be a good organizer and KMT won 269 of 596 seats in the House of Representatives and 123 of 274 seats in the Senate. Song Jiaoren became a most probably candidate to the PM position and his proclaimed goal, unsurprisingly, was to limit the powers of the president’s position. Which, also unsurprisingly, was going contrary to the Yuan’s own ideas on this specific subject. It was, of course, a pure coincidence that Song had been shot by a lone gunman, which probably qualified as “self-inflicted wound”. A deadly one - some people simply don’t take a serious care of their own health. There was probably some kind of a minor epidemics as a result of which all people investigated either died or mysteriously disappeared (these viruses can be quite weird).
But learning on other’s experiences is not always working and after arriving in Peking, the elected Parliament attempted to gain control over Yuan, to develop a permanent constitution, and to hold a legitimate, open presidential election. These guys were also critical of Yuan’s handling of a national budget (he managed to authorize $100,000,000 “reconstruction loan” just before the Barmalei War started and before newly-elected Woodrow Wilson cancelled financial policy of his predecessor). To sum it up, the KMT was just looking for trouble and got it. Yuan successfully cracked on KMT y suppressing or bribing the parliamentarians and replacing pro-KMT governors with the loyal ones.
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Sun Yat-sen behaved in his usual way: fled to Japan in August 1913, and from there called for a Second Revolution. Yuan Shikai also behaved in his usual way: used the army to dissolve the national and provincial assemblies and replace them with the newly formed "Council of State", with Duan Qirui, his trusted Beiyang lieutenant, as prime minister. Finally, Yuan had himself elected president to a five-year term, publicly labelled the KMT a seditious organization, ordered the KMT's dissolution, and evicted all its members from Parliament. The KMT's "Second Revolution" ended in failure as Yuan's troops achieved complete victory over revolutionary uprisings. In January 1914, China's Parliament was formally dissolved and Yuan got practically unlimited powers over China's military, finances, foreign policy, and the rights of China's citizens. Yuan justified these reforms by stating that representative democracy had been proven inefficient by political infighting. Probably not too smart move was to supply the provinces with the military governors, each with his own army but this worked for the time being.

Actually, with the “reconstruction loan” being provided not only by the neutral Russia and Japan but also by France, Britain and Germany, Yuan could expect that, no matter which side wins, loan from the losing one probably could be shrugged off and that the winner is going to be too busy with other issues to press the unpleasant parts of the loan conditions. Which, of course, still was leaving Russia and Japan and, while Russia already grabbed pretty much everything it wanted and was mostly interested in holding it, Japan’s appetite was seemingly on the initial stages of its development and the main hope was that the US with its current open doors policy may put enough pressure to keep Japanese demands within some reasonable limits. Anyway, as of now, China had certain degree of freedom of actions. “Within the reasonable limits”.
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Barmalei War.

East Africa.

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Going a little bit back in time for a broader picture.

Simultaneously with the British IEF “B”, which landed at Tonga with the intention to crush the German forces in the East Africa (see, earlier chapter), force “C” of approximately 4,000 mostly Indian troops landed in Mombasa as part of a two-pronged invasion of the German colony. This second prong would attack the German defences at Longido in the north around Kilimanjaro, then swing south and seize Neu Moshi, the western terminus of the Usambara or Northern Railroad. “The objective for the capture of Longido was to squeeze the German Schutztruppe in the upper end of a two-hundred-mile pincer."
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As the plans go, this one was just as good as any other plan and, as with any other plan, but “no battle plan ever survives the first encounter with the enemy” [1]. Anyway, IMO, all these multi-prong plans require either (a) a complete idiot as an enemy, or (b) a “fail proof” huge advantage in strength or (c) a great skill of the leadership. The British commander, Major General Arthur Aitken, and his staff were not idiotic enough to have serious illusions regarding (a) or (c) but they sincerely expected to have (b). Well, they proved to be right on the (a) and (c) accounts and wrong on (b). Having it right on two out of three probably gives them reasonably high marks as the military planners [2]. Well, anyway, both him in charge of the Southern prong and Major Steward in the charge of the Northern one, regardless their planning abilities, definitely failed as the tacticians. The consolation prize for Major Stewart was that his superior lost a battle having 8:1 (or 10:1) numeric advantage while he achieved the same result with only 2:1 advantage.
To get to the point, the “C” force of 4,000 expected to met only 200 German troops but in a reality there were also 600 askaris and the colonial volunteers of 8th Schützenkompagnie [rifle company] of 86 young Germans on horseback. Totally, a whooping 886 opponents. A prudent commander would immediately order a retreat after getting news about this but Stewart, with more bravery than a common sense kept advancing loosing somewhere more than a half of his force in a process. Probably, these units also had been forming the prongs of their own or were implementing some other tricky maneuver. Anyway, “some 1,500 Punjabis of the British force came up the slope at night near Longido and, at daylight in the morning fog, were caught in the crossfire of a strong German defensive position. The large force of Indian infantry fought well when counterattacked, however, during the day the British attackers made no headway, but suffered substantial casualties.”
While they were fighting, a mounted patrol of the German 8th Rifle Company ambushed a British supply column; roughly 100 mules carrying water for the troops were stampeded away by the German horsemen. Some of the carriers in the column panicked and dropped their loads leaving food, ammunition and equipment behind. The British officers with their now widely scattered troops waited until darkness, determined their situation to be untenable, pulled out and down the mountain and marched back to British East Africa having accomplished nothing and losing over 300 vs. German 100. The German askari troops even had enough time to arrive by the train to the Battle of. Tanga.

Most of the “C” force managed to get to Mombasa and get the hell out of Africa before the French and German forces pretty much cut the colony out of the coast. The rest, remained inland but a double defeat by the much smaller forces cooled enthusiasm for war, especially among the British colonial volunteers most of whom had been Hindu colonists (there were more of them than the British settlers).

After securing the coast the Germans and French had been, for a while, just holding the perimeter waiting for the arrival of reinforcements and expecting the renewed British attempts to land in the area. On the far western end, Lake Tanganyika was dominated by the French and German small craft and even few airplanes had been present: the Germans had there 2 steamers, 1 ferry and some dhow boats, the French - 1 steamer, 1 armed boat, 1 armed barge and 4 planes against 2 British steamers, both of which had been eventually sunk.

Communication with Sudan was still possible from Uganda by the White Nile but this was not a big help in a long run because Sudan also was cut off the coast (and, anyway, both ends of the Red Sea were controlled by the Entente) and even put together these colonies/protectorates were not fully self-sufficient in the terms of maintaining colonial rule in a long run.

For the British government this situation posed a serious dilemma: just abandoning the region would be a major loss of the face and may have a serious negative domino effect upon other parts of the empire. OTOH, a successful relief effort would require a very serious naval redeployment involving assignment of at least 4 - 5 of the most modern battlecruisers or even the Queen Elizabeth battleships: no major relocation could pass unnoticed and the French had an advantage of a much shorter travel from the Med through Suez and the Red Sea and both German battle cruisers had been stationed in Batavia while the British squadron would have to sail all the way along the African coast. This was posing at least two problems:
  • Serious weakening of the Grand Fleet based in Scapa Flow may encourage the Germans to attack if not the base itself then at least the coastal cities.
  • The squadron will be looking for a trip 22 - 25,000 nautical miles. Taking into an account that a range of a Lion-class battlecruiser was approximately 5,600 nautical miles and of a battleship of Queen Elizabeth class 5,000, this meant numerous refuelings. Both new battlecruisers and new battleships had been using oil and Britain did not have the big oil supply bases down the Atlantic. The biggest one was on the Falklands, which was adding an extra hundreds miles to the route. As an alternative, the squadron could be followed by one or few tankers but this meant a much lower speed and a greater vulnerability along the route making protection of the tankers the main task of the squadron. The next problem was obvious: what’s the next? Even assuming that the squadron successfully accomplishes de blockade of the East Africa, how is it going to operate afterwards? Capacity of the tankers was not unlimited and the only available refinery was in Abadan on the Ottoman-Persian border. Which implied a need to sail even further, etc. And this also involved a need to have ammunition supplies and many other things, which could be hardly obtained even in India. Winston Churchill, the 1st Lord of the Admiralty, still was full of enthusiasm but the professionals were not too much so and so far the idea was not going anywhere drowning in the bottomless swamp of the planning and consultations. Running the supply convoys to South-Eastern Africa and across the Atlantic already was stretching resources of the cruisers and destroyers and adding to these convoys the tankers to provide an adequate oil storages on Madagascar or British Mozambique would stretch them even more, not to mentioning a need to create the necessary infrastructure.
South East Africa.
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Operations there reached standstill. With the exception of few forts, the British troops evacuated territory to the South of Limpopo River due to the shortage of the supplies. On the opposite side the problem was pretty much the same: with the British dominance on the Atlantic the supplies had to come in what was a convoluted route for the Dutch: by land across France and then via the Med and Red Sea by the Indian Ocean using the route which was not completely safe from the British cruisers. As a result, both sides had been limiting themselves to the occasional cavalry raids.
The German incursions into Bechuanaland Protectorate were of no serious significance due to the small numbers involved, huge distances and generally pro-British King Khama III.

It was looking like that the conflict which triggered the whole war is dying out by the natural reasons and, if it was not a small part of a greater game, the sides directly involved, probably could come to a mutual agreement even if it was absolutely unclear what such an agreement could look like because giving the British immigrants the equal rights would quite soon remove the Boers from power by aa sheer force of the numbers. OTOH, due to a general absence of Boers’ interest to anything but farming and hunting, pretty much all technical activities were conducted by these British immigrants who, even during the war, had been running the railroads, mines, etc.

Mesopotamian theater.
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The British troops (mostly IDF “D”) under command of general Townshend kept advancing pretty much into a vacuum with an ambitious plan to take Baghdad [3] while the Ottomans had been forming the army and moving it into the theater. Eventually, the forces met each other at Ctesiphon on the Western bank of the Tigris River in the barren Iraqi desert, about 380 miles (610 km) upstream from Basra, 40 miles (64 km) and 16 miles (26 km) south-east of Baghdad.

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The Ottoman forces had formed a well-camouflaged and formidable line of trenches crossing the river. There were two lines of trenches; there was also a 20-foot-high (6.1 m) ancient wall 3 miles (4.8 km) south of the main line, used for observation by the Ottoman forces under command of Lieutenant General Nureddin. The Ottoman amy consisted of approximately 18,000 men and 52 guns.

The British force consisted of the 6th (Poona) Division, at a strength of around 11,000 men. Some British troops had been left behind to garrison the recently captured town and river junction of Kut. Townshend's plan of attack was to separate his force into four columns. Three infantry columns, designated columns A, B, and C, were scheduled for a frontal attack on different points of the Ottoman lines. The other column, referred to as the flying column, was made up of a mix of cavalry and infantry, and was supposed to swing around the left flank of the Ottoman lines. [4] The attack was to be supported by two river boats, a gunboat and HMS Firefly.
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Nureddin had 55 days to prepare his defenses and did it well. Townshend ordered a night attack, which happened on schedule but due to poor ground conditions on the west bank the British ended up attacking the much stronger east bank positions. [5] The advance was supposed to be supported by river gunboats, however two things prevented the gun boats from becoming a factor in the battle: the Ottoman artillery fired on them and the Tigris was mined. What a barbaric and uncivilized thing to do!
Probably to confuse the enemy, Townshend named his columns not A, B, C from right to left or left to right but C, A, B from left to right. This was definitely a neat tactical trick that would put any civilized opponent into a confusion but the Ottomans were too uneducated to bite. Anyway, A and C did not even reach the trenches. B took the 1st line and advanced to the 2nd but was stopped by Ottoman division brought from reserve.

Townshend then ordered C-Column to fall back, and try and exploit the breakthrough. This movement was rather complicated and the task was made difficult by Ottoman forces firing into their flank. Meanwhile, the flying column bogged down in inconclusive fighting against Turkish and Arab Cavalry. Here again Nureddin committed his reserves, in this case the 51st Division, to great effect, halting Townshend's flanking attack.

The next day Townshend repeated attacks without success after which the Ottomans counter-attacked, also without success. On the third day both generals ordered a retreat due to the high losses but when Nureddin realized that the British were retreating, he turned his army around and sent it in pursuit of the British-Indian forces. The Brits lost 4,600 and claimed that the Ottomans lost between 6,200 and 9,500. Townshend decided a retreat back towards Kut was necessary to rebuild the strength of his army. It is not quite clear how exactly he was planning to achieve this while sitting in Kut but this became unimportant because Nureddin advanced and besieged Kut.

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__________
[1] This quote sometimes attributed to C.Powell but Field Marshal Helmuth Carl Bernard von Moltke said it much earlier: “No plan of operations extends with certainty beyond the first encounter with the enemy’s main strength.”
[2] Definitely a higher mark than, say, general von Weyrother whose plan for Austerlitz battle was heavily relying upon (a) and (c). Or Varro, who at the Cannae relied exclusively on what he thought will be (b) (to think about it, perhaps Varro also was somewhat right regarding (a) and (c)? I got caught in my own logic). 😂
[3] Taking into an account that the primary goal was to protect Abadan refinery and that the British force was slightly more than a single division, wisdom of that strategy can be questioned unless it was heavily based upon (a)-factor (see above).
[4] “The 1st column is marching, the 2nd column is marching….” Weyrother would be proud.
[5] Doing a reconnaissance before preparing a plan would remove all fun from the following activities.
[6] The golden rule formulated by Suvorov is “never by shy about claiming the Turkish losses”.
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Maybe China might be at peace for 3 years, hopefully.

The Ottomans are doing as well as they can against the British, though I do wonder when the war will end.
 
Question
Maybe China might be at peace for 3 years, hopefully.
In OTL it was in peace, more or less, for few years but nothing good came out of it: it was going in a wrong direction strengthening the provincial warlords and not having any good way to deal with the growing Japanese economic and territorial aggressiveness: letting Japan to take the German colony only made things worse.
The Ottomans are doing as well as they can against the British, though I do wonder when the war will end.
So far this is practically the OTL but ITTL OE is in a much better position because Mesopotamia is its only front and it can account upon the help from Germany and France and to buy needed stuff from Russia as well while Britain is much worse logistically (no Suez and problematic travel around Africa).

As for the end of fighting, there are (so far) 3 basic scenarios:

1. The peace comes with the exhaustion of both sides: as of now, both the US and RE are going to remain neutral; but this may change (especially if there are compelling arguments). OTOH, a peace conference looks as a nice idea, especially if accompanied by an agreement regarding control of the armaments, which all signatories will start ignoring as soon as the ink dries out. 😉

2. The Brits may do something stupid: in OTL they were confiscating cargo of the American ships going to Germany but paid for it and WW was pretending that this is OK. ITTL, this can be accompanied by some nasty accident producing a very bad PR and shift of the public opinion in the US. Then, there would be no need to go to war, just to cut the credits and shipments.

3. One side manages to loose really bad in a critically important area. I find this rather unlikely on the British side, short of a massive successful uprising in British India (probably with the ASBs landing near Delhi), and on the Entente side what could it be? Even a major defeat on the sea is not cutting their land-based supply lines and a complete annihilation of both French and German navies is also extremely unlikely. At least not with the OTL personages in charge on both sides.


Actually, this is a question to everybody: which scenario do you prefer?
 
Actually, this is a question to everybody: which scenario do you prefer

Can I have option 4, "fair" to all?

How about a repeated wave of the epidemic, most likely from China (revenge is theirs!), or perhaps "something" ugly from Africa, or perhaps both...
Great powers don't bleed to death in war, they simply lose interest in war as God's wrath mows down their populations across social classes...
 
Option #2: The US cutting off funding after some sort of scandal and the British getting a slightly unfavourable peace deal that topples them off their superpower status is a novel idea to me. I don’t see a reason for the US or Russia to go to war with Britain here when they can just watch the Entente do the work for them. Also it’s not like the Brits would be out of the game, they can get up to their shenanigans even though they’re not the top dog anymore.
 
Option #2: The US cutting off funding after some sort of scandal and the British getting a slightly unfavourable peace deal that topples them off their superpower status is a novel idea to me. I don’t see a reason for the US or Russia to go to war with Britain here when they can just watch the Entente do the work for them. Also it’s not like the Brits would be out of the game, they can get up to their shenanigans even though they’re not the top dog anymore.
The obvious question is what amounts to a realistic “slightly unfavorable peace deal”?

1. South Eastern Africa. Obviously, Britain is not getting the Boer republics and the British settlers are not getting the full citizen rights but the Brits retain their businesses by a simple reason of the Boers not being interested in anything but the revenues. But there could be some ownership shifts in de Beers and world-wide diamond market.
2. Territories wise, I’m not sure if it is realistic for Britain to lose something noticeable. Malta may become independent thus removing Brits from the Med and they can lose base in Aden but it would take a de facto conquest to move them from Sudan or East Africa. Perhaps some islands in the Indian Ocean? (Seychelles, Chagos Archipelago, Maldives, etc.).
3. Oil in Persian Gulf - APOC expelled from the OE, the Gulf rulers are forced to denounce their agreements with Britain so there is an “open door policy” (the US would like it), the Persian-British treaty is cancelled, etc. Britain is mostly squeezed out of the oil production market with the main beneficiaries being the US, Russia, Germany.
4. What to do about the naval supremacy and commercial fleet? Crippling physical damage is not too realistic. Just financial inability to maintain a huge navy? Or some international naval control treaty like in OTL but with the different breakdown?


Basically, all active participants may end up with (a) huge foreign debts and (b) big number of the expensive floating junk for which there is not too much use and which is quite costly to maintain.

Some other ideas?
 
From my understanding the British colonies in West Africa are small and surrounded by French and German ones, so those ones would probably be relatively easy for the Entente to take. I suppose the Indian and Pacific Oceans have lots of little islands? Botswana and the strip of land between the Boer Republics and the Indian Ocean maybe? Though I don’t know if the Entente can actually conquer those parts of South East Africa.
 
From my understanding the British colonies in West Africa are small and surrounded by French and German ones, so those ones would probably be relatively easy for the Entente to take. I suppose the Indian and Pacific Oceans have lots of little islands? Botswana and the strip of land between the Boer Republics and the Indian Ocean maybe? Though I don’t know if the Entente can actually conquer those parts of South East Africa.
Botswana (IIRC) was a German colony but the rest is worth considering.
 
How about the Brits losing a craptonne of destroyers but winning the capital ships battle? Entente subs would realistically mean the end for the Empire, so they basically do the "the destroyers for bases" many years earlier but it has a steeper cost due to the PR difference. The Entente, basically assured of victory before that is so demoralised by the prospect of a longer war with the additional cost of rebuilding the big ships, come to the table for a white peace. They don't know the US destroyers are crap.

The US wins big, there is a bloody nose for everyone involved and no ground slogging shit fest but only naval battle (as you originally intended if I remember correctly)
 
How about the Brits losing a craptonne of destroyers but winning the capital ships battle? Entente subs would realistically mean the end for the Empire, so they basically do the "the destroyers for bases" many years earlier but it has a steeper cost due to the PR difference. The Entente, basically assured of victory before that is so demoralised by the prospect of a longer war with the additional cost of rebuilding the big ships, come to the table for a white peace. They don't know the US destroyers are crap.

The US wins big, there is a bloody nose for everyone involved and no ground slogging shit fest but only naval battle (as you originally intended if I remember correctly)
You are so bloodthirsty that sometimes it scares me. 😂
 
Botswana (IIRC) was a German colony but the rest is worth considering.
I thought Botswana was British because of this: ”The German incursions into Bechuanaland Protectorate were of no serious significance due to the small numbers involved, huge distances and generally pro-British King Khama”
 
Mesopotamia and other places
368. Mesopotamia and other places
"Here is a dead land whence, if he die not, [the traveller] shall bring home nothing but a perpetual weariness in his bones."
Charles Doughty, ‘Travels in Arabia Deserta
“Are we prepared to surrender control of the Persian Gulf and divide that of the Indian Ocean?”
Lord Curzon, Viceroy of India, 1899
"The great Revolution of 1908 is the work of…Young Turks and in particular young officers. Most of them were in their 30s or even younger…They were the saviors of the fatherland."
Von der Holtz about the Revolution of 1908
"This article written by our Honorable Master should be repeatedly read by all soldiers from field marshal to lieutenant … it always should be read ... and should be taken as a guide in all our efforts and initiatives. … I assure you, Honorable Master … that we shall stick exactly to your advice and we shall regard it as our guide."
Major Ali Fuad, an answer to Von der Holtz​



Historic background. In the late 18th Century and throughout the 19th, Britain's primary imperial concern was to protect her trade-routes to the East, especially to India. And so over 150 years she was led into a steady and, as she believed, defensive extension of imperial control from the Persian mainland to the Arabian shore of the Gulf and thence, by degrees, round the whole Arabian coast. The pattern of British activity in this region thus established in the closing years of the 18th Century. British control was maritime, not territorial - a girdle of sea power round the eastern extremities of the Arab world. Where territorial control of some kind was deemed essential, it was achieved by the traditional British method of indirect influence, rather than direct rule. This process was working in two directions: from the West by British government (attempts to establish the British preeminence on the Mediterranean and the Red Sea) and from the East (Persia and Arabian coast) by the government of British India. In both cases administration simply extended its system of protective overlordships from the native states of the sub-continent itself to the petty coastal rulers of Arabia and the Gulf. Apart from the maintenance 'of a territorial sphere ' of influence in southern Persia, nothing more was required so long as the defence of India and Britain's seaborne trade remained the centre of imperial policy. Arabia was, anyway, a notoriously hostile territory with zero material advantage inland. As long as the surrounding seas were free and other powers were kept at arm's length from India, the imperial duty was done. The only exception was around the port of Aden, a meager 75 square miles, did the British assume the responsibility of colonial rule in these Middle Eastern extensions of the Raj. Elsewhere, they took some 40 or 50 independent principalities into a variety of treaty relationships that made them what Lord Curzon called "loyal feudatories." Rulers of these principalities ceded to Britain a right of the foreign relations while retaining freedom of the internal actions and a right to fight with each other. Britain may or may not act as an arbiter in these quarrels. The end result was that the rival powers were formally barred from the Gulf, from Kuwait to Muscat, without Britain's being committed to any greater physical presence.
On the map below all that rainbow coloring along the Arabian coast are the British protectorates or dependencies except for Aden, which is dependency of … British India (Bombay Province).

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Then the priorities shifted. On May 21, 1901 the Shah of Persia signed an agreement on the oil concession with the Englishman called William Knox D'Arcy. Seven years elapsed before D'Arcy got any returns, and his directors had actually sent a cable cancelling further exploration when the news arrived in London in 1908 of an oil strike at Masjid i-Suleiman in southern Persia. In the next year the Anglo-Persian Oil Company was formed with a capital of £2 millIon supplied by a group of British and Dutch financiers. D'Arcy was bought out and work began on the first Middle Eastern oil refinery at Abadan, in the Gulf.
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At that time the Royal Navy was just completing its conversion from coal- to oil-fired ships and Winston Churchill at the Admiralty persuaded the government to safeguard the Navy's future by acquiring a majority holding in the new oil company. The discovery prompted other countries to seek oil concessions in the area; and in 1914 Anglo-Persian joined with Royal Dutch Shell and a German company to prospect for oil in northern Mesopotamia. At the same time, the British hurried to plug possible loopholes in their screen around the Gulf by signing yet another series of agreements with all the Arab states, from Bahrain and Kuwait to the Trucial Coast and Muscat, giving Britain the exclusive right to oil concessions in their territories. They were the first indication that Britain would soon switch her policy from maritime containment in the interests of India to territorial engagement for economic gain.
So the ongoing Mesopotamian campaign was an attempt to implement a great strategic goal of providing Britain (and especially the RN) with the reliable oil supply. Of course, to achieve this goal Britain had to maintain a permanent naval superiority in the region and to be successful on land. Neither was a trivial task.

1914.
Mesopotamia.
To a great Ottoman’s disappointment mobilization of their army accomplished under the supervision of the War Minister (and wannabe dictator) Enver Pasha, was taking more time than expected and the troops were not armed as well as expected.
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Part of the reason was in the fact that, by more than a little bit overestimating his own abilities and the Ottoman resources, Enver Pasha was initially not too eager to accept the German help and gave in only in a face of the early British successes in Mesopotamia. Cherry on a cake in this case was the call for Fieldmarshal Von der Goltz to be put in charge of the field army. Fieldmarshal was something of a “father figure” for the young Ottoman officers who passed through his military school and enormously popular among the Ottoman military. Which, understandably, was somewhat hurting Enver’s feelings and military ambitions. However, he had to submit to the pressure, especially because Wilhelm offered a package deal: Von der Holtz plus £5,000,000 in gold to equip the army, plus up to 18,000 German troops (if needed), German staff and artillery officers, a number of the flying units and a big amount of all types of military equipment. Of course, 18,000 Germans were not needed and what was called “Pasha 1 Expedition” included:
  • Infantry Battalion 701
  • Infantry support gun sections 701, 702, 703
  • Machine gun company 701
  • Asia Korps Cavalry squadron
  • Pioneer detachment 701
  • Pioneer company 205 (from the Hessian 11th Pioneer Battalion)
  • Flying detachment (Fliegerabteilung) 300 ("Pasha")
  • Mountain Signal detachment 27
  • Survey section 27
  • Medical section

Formally, Von der Holtz was already in charge by the time of a Battle of Ctesiphon (and, as a result, sometimes was given a credit for this battle even if he was not actually present) but he was still moving into the area with a bulk of the army so it was Nureddin who, with his troops, besieged Townshed and his troops in Kut.
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The siege itself proved to be almost 4 months long affair during which the Brits made two failed attempts to relieve a garrison with a total loss of approximately 30,000 vs. 10,000 Ottoman losses. With Von der Holtz and his main force arrived the heavy Krupp artillery and the German airplanes and a serious bombardment of the city began. The besieged garrison was suffering from the shortage of the vital necessities: “we were smoking anything that would smoke, and green leaves (dried over a fire), tea leaves and sawdust mixed, ginger cut into small lumps.” Of course, following the law of the predictable consequences, smoking the tea leaves resulted in a shortage of tea and the besieged had to drink ginger crushed and steeped in boiling water. One can only imagine (personally, I can’t but perhaps some of you have a better developed imagination) what would happen when they run out of ginger but there was seemingly an ample supply of it. Anyway, the first things come first and Townshend was busy sending out a series of messages on the radio asking for a promotion from major-general to colonel-general on the account of his success advancing the Tigris.
On the 4th month the Indian troops had been forced to abandon the vegetarian diet of their religion and eat horse meat. Of course, it probably made sense in the terms of getting rid of the vegetarian competitors but, if they switched to a high protein diet, wouldn’t it make sense to start with their British commanders? Their meat was almost definitely softer. Well, anyway, with all other ideas failing, the British government sent to Istanbul the negotiators with an offer of £2 million for letting Townshend’s troops go with a promise they would not fight the Ottoman troops again. Enver Pasha at first pretended to negotiate in good faith, then publicized and rejected the offer as a final humiliation to the British.
When the all negotiation means had been exhausted Townshend surrendered. His soldiers “resembled animated skeletons hung about with filthy rags” but he was doing just fine.
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Shortly before Townshend’s capitulation, Von der Holtz died (one may argue that the German depiction of his appearance on the Heaven does not closely fit any specific religious doctrine but after watching the last season of “Lucifer” I’m not going to start nitpicking; anyway, hookah [1] and Turkish coffee in a Paradise, while rather surprising, are not worse than the harps and chorus singing as far as having a good time goes).
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After his death command passed to Halil Pasha (on the photo above sitting next to Townshend) who, used the situation to march on Basra, which was easily recaptured, and then to send expedition across the border to destroy refinery at Abadan or at least to do as much damage as possible. It was on the Persian territory but who cared if it was British.
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Of course, it was almost impossible for a relatively small force to do a complete destruction of a big refinery in a short period of time but enough had been done to it and to a pipeline to put it out of a circulation for quite a while, especially taking into an account that equipment and the pipes had to be brought from Britain. However, the British “defensive belt” on the Arabian coast was not destroyed except for the very important port of Aden and, while the Ottoman recapture of Basra and a threat of invasion forced Emir of Kuwait to claim his loyalty to the Ottoman Empire, everybody knew quite well that it is going to last only until one more British expeditionary force arrives. Well, if it arrives, which at that point was a big “IF” because a loss of the tens thousands Indian troops in a less than a year seriously impacted the enthusiasm on subcontinent and the government in Delhi started getting worried if the obvious incompetence of the British commanders may generate some wrong ideas among the natives.


Atlantic Ocean - both sides
Now, even the Admiralty had to at least somewhat reconsider its strategy and send a strong squadron into the Indian Ocean regardless all related complications. After all, the Grand Fleet will remain a dominant force on the North Sea without some of its battlecruisers. However, taking into an account the involved logistics, a proper planning and assembling the necessary resources would take some time.

In a meantime, the British warships patrolling the Atlantic routes started getting engaged in a traditional British activity: stopping the neutral ships sailing to the Entente’s and sometimes even neutral ports and confiscating the goods which could be consider strategic. Not to have too much complaints from the US, the goods confiscated from the American ships had been paid for. Other nations were not that lucky and there were even few incidents with arrest of the neutral ships sailing to the neutral ports.

The Baltic League protested and had been ignored. As a result, all British ships stuck in the Baltic and Black Sea ports had been confiscated together with their cargo. British trade with the Baltic League was stopped until situation is resolved.

Well, of course, the other side were not the angels either and the few French and German light cruisers had been also operating on the sea routes not always fully following the international laws. Especially, when they had been lucky to catch a tanker going to Britain (how are you expected to confiscate its cargo?).

On the Western side of the Atlantic those involved in trade had not been amused: the goods could be paid for but a resulting breach of a contract was not a very good thing and neither was a growing cost of the insurance. With the resulting reorientation of the merchandise flow from the East to the West coast, the major Atlantic ports had been suffering because Britain alone could not replace the broader European market. And when the important people on the East coast are getting unhappy, POTUS, especially one from the East coast, must pay attention.

Woodrow Wilson, President of the US, and Nicholas II, the Emperor of Russia (also speaking for the Baltic League) started discussions (thanks to the modern technology, travel was not needed) regarding a satisfactory resolution of the Atlantic trade problem, of a broader issue of forcing the quarreling parties to start peace talks (under the Russian-American aegis, of course) and of an international conference that will put end to the crazy naval race by regulating it to everybody’s satisfaction. To a mutual pleasant surprise, both of them found [2] that they just love international peace conferences so this could be a beginning of a beautiful friendship which will shove the brave new peaceful world down everybody’s throat.
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[1] Personally, I do not support smoking but at least that hookah thing implies silence and relaxation, which can’t be said about a mass singing and playing the musical instruments by the (former) people most of whom never had any talent in any of these areas.
[2] To be precise, first the Russian Foreign Minister and American State Secretary found this and only then their masters found this as well but excitement on the top level is the only thing that matters so that we can skip the intermediaries including the telegraph operators, clerks, undersecretaries, etc. Even if each of them also had been pleasantly surprised. 😉
 
I thought Botswana was British because of this: ”The German incursions into Bechuanaland Protectorate were of no serious significance due to the small numbers involved, huge distances and generally pro-British King Khama”
Sorry, confused it with Burundi. Botswana (Bechuanaland Protectorate) is too big a piece and a pretty useless one at that time (the diamonds, as I understand, were found much later). With a big British force still being operational in the South East Africa such a demand would be unrealistic.
 
IMO - Britain loses. The entire coast from Schleswig to Gascony is hostile. Most of the RN is pinned down in the North Sea and Channel to protect against possible invasion. With Denmark, Sweden, Russia, Austria, Italy, Spain, and Portugal all neutral, and with France controlling Suez, blockade is not possible, and British's immense merchant fleet is exposed to raiders.

The British army is likewise pinned down at home. The army is already heavily stretched in South Africa. Now they also have to defend against invasion, fight in East Africa, West Africa, the East Indies, and the West Indies. And Mesopotamia.

Britain is not a "superpower", like the post-WW II US. It doesn't have the muscle. It punched above its weight by concentrating on naval domination.

In this scenario, that isn't there, and Britain can't withstand the collective challenge... IMO.
 
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