No GNW (or “Peter goes South”)

What if we go with 4, but instead of keeping it, they just make it a puppet state. I'm sure there are plenty of people who would more than happy to take the job.
Pull a japanese and let the Qing rule themselves in a puppet Manchuria while laughing at the face of a Republican China and, ironically, Japan?
 
Pull a japanese and let the Qing rule themselves in a puppet Manchuria while laughing at the face of a Republican China and, ironically, Japan?
Pretty much. I can't imagine the current Qing rulers will be happy, but there is probably more than a few cousins willing to take on the job. Purely for the lifestyle and security as there would probably be a lot of concessions to make.
 
3 bis: Take the most defensible part of Heilongjiang with the most possible Manchu and in general not Chinese population and convert it in a satellite state.
Impose some type of "constitution" that makes compulsory Manchu language in education and administration. Put the more realistic Manchu elites in charge with the advice that any danger of Chinese takeover or massive immigration will cause Russia involvement.
Add agriculture reform to get land from "Chinese" landholders and lease land plots to reasonably "Manchu" peasants and friendly landholders." That way "Manchu" peasants will have a great incentive to be as "Manchu" as possible.
 
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First response: I'm with Hastings.

Second response: how about 3, but the mines in Manchuria are "leased" to Russia for as long as it takes to repay? There are 8 nations involved, so everyone gets 10% except Russia that keeps 30% because of the oversight? Wouldn't that work?
 
Can in any possible scenario the locals be left alone?

Realistically, no. It is just a matter of which imperialist power is going to grab what in one form or another.
Because if there is Im all for upsetting all of the above as much as possible

This would be OTL. 😜
As long the russians keep a policy of not screwing the manchurians I vote 4

Not screwing them is an extremely low probability scenario by two main reasons:
  1. The whole purpose of the colonialism is screwing the natives in one form or another.
  2. In this specific case said natives created a perfect scenario of self-inflicted wounds. In one of the earlier chapters I quoted contemporary report on Chinese in Vladivostok region (outside China) and in Manchuria during and after Boxer Rebellion it was even worse. Why do you think the Russians hold 100,000 troops there? Then, look at the whole history of the East China RR and a general mess caused by the Chinese Revolution.


Make the (other) imperialists suffer!
 
This needs a much earlier revolution in China.
True
  1. The whole purpose of the colonialism is screwing the natives in one form or another
Realistically, no. It is just a matter of which imperialist power is going to grab what in one form or another.
Sadly true :/
Besides, already had been used in (at least) one crappy book.
I need that book! Its good for taking a crap!
 
I've supported Heilongjiang before. I'd recommend the Lalin River which basically forms the modern-day Heilongjiang-Jilin border though. The Songhua includes some lands reasonably populated even then just north of Jilin city.

The idea was to have a reasonably big river as a border and Sungari goes almost all the way to the Korean border while Lalin leaves a considerable land space. Previous border-marking experiences with China would teach the Russians that an area of possible misunderstandings must be minimized and they would not care too much about existing provincial borders. Territorial difference is not too big so probably the population difference is not going to be critical.
Basically my thought is Russia takes what is modern-day Heilongjiang, Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture, and Hulunbuir, basically the area along and north of the Trans-Manchurian Railroad.
ITTL there is no TransManchurian RR and no need to get a piece of the Great Khingan Mountains: they can be “generously” left to China creating a salient useful for a future blackmail.

Population of this area would have been about 2 million in 1900, most, but not all of them, Chinese. I think you are too pessimistic about Russian ability to manage Chinese populations. Yes they may be a pain, but Russia managed to prevent any demographically meaningful number of Chinese settling in Outer Manchuria.

OK, I’m convinced but the same would go for Sungari border.
It isn't going to make Russia a fortune, but I think it will be very helpful in the long run. Outer Manchuria has never had the population to really be a viable economic engine and so was a sink. Heilongjiang has a *lot* of good arable land, about the same amount as Kazakhstan which managed to get 6 million European settlers by 1959. Manchuria won't get quite as many as it is further, but still a lot can be done. Get enough people, form an economic engine that interacts with the neighborhood and Far East will get much more fun after a few decades for Russia.
Yes, there seems to be a big soy bean production area within Sungary “triangle” and the future Harbin, with the reasonable RRs, will be a good transit point for their (and other stuff) transportation southward from the China-held area to the north from “triangle”.

I don't think all of Manchuria is a good idea.

I don’t think exactly the same thing and OTL proved that we are correct.😉
Will be a challenging puppet in long run, and *way* to many people to annex, Manchuria south of the Songhua would have about 10 million people at this point. Also, that large population closer to the Chinese core, also means that any Chinese regime will be much more motivated to take it. I think northern Manchuria could easily end up much like Outer Mongolia or Outer Manchuria given it still has a relatively low and recent population in 1900, yes the Chinese can be a bit salty about it, but not like they really expect or plan to reabsorb it.

With Japan controlling Southern Manchuria this turns into almost complete impossibility.
I think Russia should generously offer Japan a free hand in Southern Manchuria to annex or puppet as they see fit.

Yes, actually something of the kind took place after RJW and both sides seemingly lived reasonably happy until 1917.

Not only does that remove Japan from the list of countries that might throw a fit (and make Japan the worse guy here giving they are taking a bigger slice while not even being European)),

Which means that the last thing Japan needs is to spoil relations with Russian Empire.

but also means Japan and China are unlikely to ever ally against Russia and provides a nice buffer between Russia and China.

Exactly.
Also of course be open to the French or Germans taking some treaty ports or Heinan or Taiwan.

View attachment 825687
View attachment 825687
 
Sungari river wouldn't add *too* many people, probably a couple hundred thousand, much denser than most of the areas further north, very strong north-south population gradient at this point. Don't know exactly how large, sources I have are not that granular, they may well exist but I can't read Chinese. Just thought that might be better because you seemed very reluctant to have Russia absorb a lot of Chinese.

Also, I think you want to include the Great Khingan Mountains in Russia's portion. For one thing it runs counter to your idea of a clear, undisputed border. Also, you will want to run a Trans-Manchurian Railroad and it is simpler if that is all in de jure Russia. The thing is the Trans-Manchurian Railroad is where you would want a railroad to Vladivostok. The northern route was forced by the vagaries of where the border was, but the southern route is both meaningfully shorter and runs through more populated areas. Most of the population in the area is Mongol anyway. Doesn't do Russia a whole lot of good, but not a whole lot of harm easier. Basically, I think leaving in Chinese control just adds unnecessary complications. Also given Mongolia controls Inner Mongolia if Japan is to get the rest of southern Manchuria, it would be a bit farcical for China to be supposed to rule that area.
 
So I am a tad confused. Are we talking about red to Russia, yellow to Japan? (Image taken from Wiki about the Songhua)
LocationSonghua.png


That would still mean a river border (Songhua, Nen, Hailar), a safe railroad to Vladivostok, easy trade access to the Japanese and a boarder you can defence in depth.
 
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More like this since Mongolia already has Inner Mongolia.
Thanks I forgot about that completely. So revised:
1681667709198.png

Blue Mongolia, Red/Orange Russia and Yellow Japan. I would be disappointed as Japan I think. Mongolia already being a Russian satellite, and that rather hefty annexation, its a big deal.

I'm also not sure the other nations would accept that. On the flip side, not sure what they can realistically do about it.
 
Even keeping in mind that Japan already has the Liaodong peninsula, Japan will be gaining an area with a population larger than that of Russia's gains and Mongolia combined. The population of Manchuria is very skewed at this point toward the southern-most part. Jilin and Heilongjiang combined would not match Liaoning's population until about 1950. Combining 1895 and 1900 gains, Russia's portion has maybe 2, 2.5 million people, this greater Mongolia similar or a bit less, while Japan's has 10 million or so plus the more mineral-rich part. On paper Japan is getting the much better end of the deal. In a long-run view not so much as there is a lot of good farmland in the north and it is much more plausible to make a solid part of the metropole.

Certainly no reason for Japan to be salty. This is pretty similar to the situation OTL post-Russo-Japanese War which Japan seemed pretty fine with. Just de jure, not just de facto control for both.
 
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Fist for justice and harmony #5
331. Fist for justice and harmony #5
“Gentelmen, I came to inform you about extremely unpleasant news”
N.Gogol, ‘The Inspector General’
“…Riot, senseless and merciless” [1]
Pushkin, ‘Captain’s daughter’
“We didn't make a scandal, we missed the leader! There are few really violent ones, so there are no leaders!”
V. Vysotsky, ‘Letter from a mental institution’
“Apparently, there are rebels who want to die, and there are others who want to kill.”
Albert Camus, ‘A rebellious man’
“Sometimes someone, completely exhausted by rioting, rests in a seat of power.”
Stanislav Jerzy Lec, ‘Uncombed thoughts’
The riot was wildly cheerful until they were all hanged
Unknown author​


China.
So far, the anti-western faction controlling the government of China was quite optimistic:
  • Of course, the news about capture of the Taku forts were unpleasant but OTOH the foreign aggression helped Prince Duan and his cronies to legitimize the rebellion and start using the government troops against the foreigners.
  • The invaders seemingly had serious problems with putting their act together. There was still only 9,000 of them and Tientsin was still in the hands of the imperial forces strengthened by many thousands Boxers: an official declaration of war and the foreign invasion forced Niè Shìchéng, one of the most capable Chinese generals, to stop beating the Boxers and join them at Tientsin.
  • Destruction of the railroads made invaders’ operations quite difficult and Seymour’s expedition instead of relieving embassies in Pekin was besieged far away from it.
  • The Embassies were under blockade providing the government with a potentially valuable bargain chip.
  • On the North, the rebels and loyal provincial governors had been controlling most of Manchuria and the critically important central provinces (dotted areas on map below).
1681658624720.jpeg


International coalition had, so far, as its main (and only) goal liberation of the embassies in Pekin but this does not mean that none of the coalition members had other goals of the equal or perhaps higher priority. When the rebellion spread to Manchuria, Japan and Russia had their priorities shifted. Probably Japan to a greater degree because Liaodong was under the direct threat and it was of a much greater value than lives of few diplomates (in the worst case scenario, they’ll die for their country as the heroes and will be revenged). Obviously, a passive defense was not the best way to deal with the problem and the whole area must be thoroughly cleansed. However, to deal with this task alone would be rather difficult because the area was huge and a military simple operation would require a lot of troops just to cover it effectively. On this subject the government of Japan found a complete understanding in Russia because it had the same problem. It did not take too long to come with a mutually convenient plan by which the Japanese troops will be advancing from Liaodong northward toward Mukden and the Russians will go to the same rendezvous point from the North with both of them exterminating any opposition, obvious or potential, in front of them. After this is being done, the future course of action will be decided depending upon the circumstances.

As a side notice, neither Japan nor Russia had serious commercial interests in Tientsin-Pekin area. The Brits had a much greater presence followed by the French even if the main British involvement was much more to the South in Shanghai and Canton - Hong-Kong areas and the French even further South, all the way to Vietnam border. Missionary activities were another issue: France had cathedrals and monasteries both in Tientsin and Pekin and a lot of the churches elsewhere and the British missionaries also were quite active in the Central China. So for both Russia and China the Taku and Tientsin adventures were just something needed to qualify as the “good guys” and, logically, each of them could get committed “Austrian style”: there was a joke that Austria sent very few troops with a huge flag that could cover all its contingent. However, being geographically close, they were expected to contribute more, which they did.

Intermission. In OTL NII had much more troops committed in the Central China, probably in expectation to be considered a good guy. The results were not exactly as expected (but rather as they had to be expected): no mutual love with the Brits (and seemingly the USians as well) was achieved and as soon as the dust settled Britain was helping Japan to get armed for the war against Russia. Neither refusal to take part in Pekin’s looting helped to win sympathies of the Chinese: the honghuzi had been quite active and during RJW actively cooperated with Japan while the government of China, presumably an ally, pretended that it is not there.
1681667614701.jpeg

1681667685738.jpeg

So, while the allied forces still had been hanging at Taku and outside Tientsin receiving tiny reinforcements and waiting for more, the much bigger Russian and Japanese forces hd been marching toward Mukden cleaning territory from the rebels and generally having a good time: it did not take too long for the governors of Manchurian provinces to figure out whom they have to fear more and they started behaving accordingly. As a result, most of the resistance was coming from the ill-armed and generally incompetently led Boxers who had a change to find out that their exercises in martial arts are not very helpful against the magazine rifles and machine guns.
1681668136334.png


1681668163314.jpeg

These activities were pretty much overlooked both by the allied leadership in Taku and by the world’s press. Of course, “leadership” should not be taken literally because actually there was none. So far, it amounted to a council of the naval commanders of whom one with the highest ranks was something of a chairman with mostly procedural powers. The coming reinforcements had been staying near Tongku railroad station waiting for enough of them to get together for a reasonably safe march to Tientsin and some commander with a high rank, preferably in the army, willing to take charge and the other troops commanders expressing willingness to follow his orders.

Discussions regarding the future top commanders of the whole operation had been conducted on the governmental level and so far did not produce any consensus due to the seemingly irreconcilable differences. The Brits and Americans had been refusing to accept a Japanese candidate (thus killing any possibility to get serious reinforcements from Japan) or the Russian one (just as a matter of principle). The Russians and Japanese reciprocated pointing out that the Brits already had their chance with Seymour who now has to be rescued (the Americans prudently did not propose candidate of their own). The French were not eager to send a big number of troops and a high-ranking officer, Austria did not even asked for the honor, Italy did not mind but nobody was supporting this idea. Which left Germany supported by Russia and Japan. Britain had to concede. Wilhelm was pleased and, to beat any competition, promised to send the whole field marshal. Obviously, it would take time for him to get there so for a while the international force was going to limit itself to the task of taking Tientsin.

Well, an saving Seymour’s expedition as well: there was clear international interest in that.
1681670607538.jpeg

It started well. The troops had been loaded on five trains and the first day travelled unopposed because Chinese general in the area, Nie Shicheng, got from his superior, general Ronglu [2], the orders telling him not to interfere. Later, his troops gloriously defeated few bands of the Boxers armed with swords, spears and matchlocks [3]. Finally, on June 5th (18th) at Langfang they encountered general Dong Fuxiang at the head of 5,000 regular Chinese Muslim troops and the Boxers with modern weapons and after an intensive fight had to start a retreat.
The wiki-cited accounts are being a little bit on a dramatic side with the numbers of Chinese growing to 7 and even 10,000.
The less dramatic account (admittedly based upon the hearsay):
The fighting began at 11 o'clock in the morning. The Chinese cavalry, having infantry and artillery in the rear, quickly moved to the station, but was met by volleys of Russian sailors and also quickly turned the rear. The cavalry did not get confused and made a workaround past a neighboring village to attack the landing on the right; but here she suddenly came across the Germans who opened fire. The Chinese cavalry had no choice but to reverse prudently, which it did right away. Chinese infantry opened fire behind her and boxers rushed. But the Chinese, in turn, came under the shots of our sailors and Germans, as well as under fire from a German machine gun standing on a tower [of the railroad station near which the fighting happened] and shooting over our heads. Chinese rifles has been aimed too high, thanks to which only the European reserve was damaged, and our half-company in front remained almost unharmed. Chinese troops and boxers soon retreated and, hiding in the nearest groves, were no longer shown. Of our officers, midshipman Selheim was wounded by a bullet. It ended at 1 p.m.”

Intermission. The losses according to the western side were 7 killed and 57 wounded (or less). Seymour reported that at least 400 opponents had been killed. Not that I do mind but a naive question is how did he counted these losses if the battle ended with his troops boarding the trains and going back?
Anyway, the retreat started on the trains but it turned out that the bridge across the Hai River is destroyed and there were two options: to go along the railroad or to go down the river by barges. Carrying the wounded would incapacitate several hundred people. Admiral Seymour gathered a council. The commanders of the detachments unanimously decided that it was impossible to walk and carry the wounded, so it is necessary to retreat along the Peiho River on barges. Five barges were taken. One housed Russians and Germans. In two Englishmen. In the other two - all the others. The trains were abandoned to their fate. The Boxers did not hesitate to rush to the cars that were burned in sight of the retreating expedition. Since the Peiho River had no more water than in the ditch, the barges had to move very slowly, bumping into strands and waiting for more water. On the first day, about 4 versts were made. The movement stopped for the night. The first night on the barges went smoothly. The glow of burning trains could be seen in the distance. The banks of the Peiho River, very narrow and winding, and dotted with villages where rebels were gathering. Civilians fled. Part of the expedition sailed on barges; the other part walked along the river and took each village with a fight, expelling Boxers and capturing abandoned food: rice and cattle.
1681679685039.jpeg

Along the route the column suffered more casualties including a near fatal wound of Captain Jellicoe [4]. Taking into an account that they started expedition with the minimal food supplies and ammunition, the retreating column was in a really terrible situation aggravated by the fact that water of the Peiho was full of the “presents” going downstream from Pekin and other cities. On June 10 (23) in the morning, the expedition, pursued by Chinese troops and boxers, came so close to Tientsin that it was shot at from Chinese forts. It was impossible to go further down the river. The barges were abandoned. The wounded were taken on the stretchers, and the expedition, under the cover of the nearest groves and hills, moved to Tientsin. The movement of European forces was noticed by the Chinese from the Xiku Northern Arsenal in the vicinity of Tientsin. Chinese troops, which had previously pursued troops and those that retreated from Tientsin, opened strong fire on the approaching column. The situation of the Europeans was critical. Then Admiral Seymour decided to take a very bold step: he ordered his Marines to storm the nearest Chinese arsenal of Xiku. The British fulfilled their task with honor: at 3 p.m. the arsenal was taken. The Chinese who occupied this fortification were partly killed, partly fled. The Europeans found several very good guns and a large supply of rifles and ammunition in Xiku. The next day, about 1,000 poods of rice were found here. The entire expedition was placed in the stone buildings of the arsenal. A Chinese servant of the British slipped through to Tientsin and requested rescue for Seymour. A force of 2,000 soldiers marched out of the city to the arsenal on 13 (25) June, and escorted Seymour's men back to Tientsin the next day [5].
1681675864986.jpeg

Seymour lost 62 dead and 232 wounded and was advanced to Knight Grand Cross of the Order of the Bath (GCB) on 9 November 1900; in 1901 he was promoted to the full admiral.

In his letter to the Russian admiral, the English admiral expressed his sincere hope that "this expedition, although insignificant and short-lived, will help to consolidate between Russia and England the mutual respect and trust that, fortunately, exists between our August Lords and which, especially towards China, is now so desirable in the best sense of civilization and progress.”


This proved to be somewhat optimistic
__________
[1] Quoted out of context: he was writing about Pugachev’s riot. But definition fits Boxer Rebellion just fine.
[2] Ronglu was an enemy of the anti-Western party and pretty much sabotaged the effort to take the embassies by storm.
[3] AFAIK, the Boxers generally despised the firearms as being “western” but the matchlocks probably were ancient enough to be considered truly Chinese.
[4] Jellicoe and Beatty … I’m wondering if the RN would be better off during WWI with the Chinese aiming better… But perhaps I’m unjust an the realistic alternatives … well, never mind. 😉
[5] The rescue force had been led by the Russian colonel and the biggest detachment was Russian so Wiki is silent on these unnecessary details. 😉
 
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