Well, the cricumstances and precedents that caused the appearance of communism are still all there...and the workers of industrial Europe are still oppressed and probably angry...so, something similar would appear anyway.
Miranda's Dream. ¡Por una Latino América fuerte!.- A Gran Colombia TL
- Thread starter Red_Galiray
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Yeah. I think two different corrients of a labor-oriented ideology competing is also interesting. Laborism could flourish in Latin America, France and Italy, but it would probably flounder and crash in the US, Britain and Germany. Next update is about Brazil and La Plata, then Mexico and finally Europe, so I'll have plenty of time to research.
Your affirmation is also a myth, many modern historian start to have a better opinion of Napoleon III, He never put too much stress on the french finance, like you could see with the fact that the french gouvernment could pay France's war indemnity of five billion francs so easily (Prussian were really surprised that France can pay so quickly). Recent study show that under Napoleon III France experienced a great economic growth. And the plebiscite made several months before the war show that he was still really popular.
Also the third republic was also an warmonger, it was under the third republic that France colonized so many territories, personally i found interessing to see the second empire to survive because it could have lead to a socialist empire, Napoleon III was socialist ( and considered as such by other socialists like Prudhon). If the third republic would be lead by the labourist it would not change as much, the third republic would stay conservative, french population was really conservative in this period and would elect conservative people and in any case this third republic would be unstable with weak leader because republican didn't want strong leader (they want to avoid a new Napoleon III) it was for that the french president under the third republic were just figurehead, and with the fact that this France would be more pluralistic, you could merge the problme of the third and fourth republic together, it woud look like a mess (between bonapartist, Legitimist, Legalist, labourist, Republican, liberal, ...)
If you want a stronger parliament you could have a regence that will remove a lot of the powers to the emperor to the benefit of parliament.
Yeah, the Third Republic was just as Imperialist but I think it knew how to pick its battles better. What will happen with France is still an open question. Whether a Republic or a Regency, whatever gives me a stronger France. Napoleon III is considered a laborist ITTL and has implemented a lot of labor and industry reforms that have created a stronger French industry and workforce. And butterflies have made the French population slightly more liberal. Also, ITTL there hasn't been a Second Republic, it jumped straight from Louis-Philippe to Nappy, and since Nappy came to power thanks to an admittedly unstable alliance between Bonapartists and Laborists, his powers are really limited compared to OTL.
Yeah because OTl France lose the Franco-Prussian war, they know that they have lost in term on the continental theater and decided to reaffirm their prestige by making colonial war, it was the simplest decision (and suited the ideology of a civilizing nation) here this third republic will be really less humble and more warlike especially without Franco-Prussian trauma, in fact many the parliament blocked the modernization of the French army before the war, i just wanted to say that the third republic learned of Franco-Prussian mistake without this they would have surely made the same mistakes. France needed to loose a big war to modernize and to become aware of their problem besides the third republic (OTL) suffered from many problems with their army and navy. Yeah i know that Laborist are still more popular, but i don't think that it will be enough to govern alone and they will need to collaborate with the other ideological current, which risks generating a lot of instability.
And that's why I'm so torn about what to do with France. The Franco-Prussian War and the resulting trauma of the lost arguably both helped France by forcing them to address their inherent problems and derailed her. I think that France would still go out and conquer half of Africa even without a loss though, but as you say a defeat is necessary to prevent hubris and stagnation. Perhaps a smaller, not so catastrophic loss? Here, by the way, the French Army is slightly better because it has kept Napoleonic principles such as a more flexible chain of command and has not neglected modernization, but the Germans are poised for overtaking them if they don't take measures. Finally, the Laborist in France are closely aligned with the Republicans and Liberals, all are Républicains-Sociaux, so perhaps they could take command.
Yeah a smaller lose, would be enough, a less conservative france could have accepted some reform, especially after a french victory in Mexico (boosting Napoleon III and the warmonger) not enough to beat the prussian but enough to avoid the diaster and maybe kept Alsace (they have a lot of raw ressource that would be really useful for France especially the potash mine that will be really important for the french agriculture sector). After yes they could and i though about something if napoleon III and his son died in the war they could serve as martyr and the army could support Napoléon-Jérôme Bonaparte, bonapartist will slipt between him and Victor Napoléon bonaparte, and you would see two force, the conservative one that will collapse because their internal strife (just ask them what dynasty they want for ruler would be enough) and since Plon Plon he's well liked by the armies (he could have their support) also is geniously socialist, i would see him accept the birth of a third republic and would work to avoid the birth of a weak republic), it would be nice to see him be elected twice president and refused to present himself a third time to protect the republic interest. Also an alliance between labourist, Republican, Liberals and Red Bonapartist could be really interesting to see.
They could also loose the war but with a lesser defeat the second empire could survive barely pushing France to modernize just lose against Prussia in a war would be enough to shock France.
Alsace-Lorraine will remain French ITTL, no matter what. And the idea of Napoleon III and his son as martyrs is interesting. Thank you very much for your input and ideas, I'll surely use some of them. President Jéróme Bonaparte as a kind of French Washington is especially intriguing.
Oh yeah it's really an interesting character, he did military studies and particpate in the Crimean and Italian war, he didn't play a big role, but showed some skill, he was not loved by all the millitary (while the nickname "Craint-Plomb" ("Afraid-of-Lead") was given to him by the army due to his absence from the Battle of Solferino.) but a good part have some respect for him and would likely join his side, also he was aware of French military problems.
By the way " In 1869, a foreign general, Mierolavski, had invented a mobile protective gear, for the infantry, during the fight. The Prince, thinking that this idea should be taken into consideration, presented Mierolavski to Marshal Niel, Minister of War, but the General Staff and the Infantry Committee did not retain the project. Without being discouraged, the Prince obtained from the Emperor that serious experiments were resumed but the Franco-German war broke out and they were abandoned."
Also he had many good ideas during the war against Prussia which can allow him to be well seen :
"The Prince immediately drew up a plan which consisted in leaving the same evening for St. Cloud with two battalions of the Guard and one of the Marine Infantry. The Council of Ministers would be summoned, the dictatorship would be asked of the Legislative Body and, if it did not want it for the Emperor, for its son with the institution of a regency. The army of Chalons, under the orders of MacMahon, would retreat to the capital. Such were the conceptions of the Prince. Unfortunately, the regent and the government, strongly disapproved of this plan and affirmed to the Emperor that his return to Paris, after the defeats, would provoke a revolution. Napoleon III bowed and Trochu left alone for Paris; we know how he deceived the confidence of the sovereign by making a deal with the rioters on September 4th."
during the second republic he sat on the extreme left, he was a "montagnard" and republican He embodies the left wing - anticlerical and democratic - of the Bonapartist movement against a conservative right wing and authoritarian, he was also Ministry of Algeria and the Colonies during one decade, he defends the workers whom he helps to organize collectively, frequent the most beautiful minds of the moment, from George Sand to Gustave Flaubert, from Proudhon to Alexandre, he was also hated by a good part of the country for his behavior, anticléricalism, and his expensive travel craziness. (even if with his own fund he was a hardliner skinflint)
It's really an interesting character with his dawdling between his convictions and the defense of the second empire, his excesses, his political commitment.
By the way " In 1869, a foreign general, Mierolavski, had invented a mobile protective gear, for the infantry, during the fight. The Prince, thinking that this idea should be taken into consideration, presented Mierolavski to Marshal Niel, Minister of War, but the General Staff and the Infantry Committee did not retain the project. Without being discouraged, the Prince obtained from the Emperor that serious experiments were resumed but the Franco-German war broke out and they were abandoned."
Also he had many good ideas during the war against Prussia which can allow him to be well seen :
"The Prince immediately drew up a plan which consisted in leaving the same evening for St. Cloud with two battalions of the Guard and one of the Marine Infantry. The Council of Ministers would be summoned, the dictatorship would be asked of the Legislative Body and, if it did not want it for the Emperor, for its son with the institution of a regency. The army of Chalons, under the orders of MacMahon, would retreat to the capital. Such were the conceptions of the Prince. Unfortunately, the regent and the government, strongly disapproved of this plan and affirmed to the Emperor that his return to Paris, after the defeats, would provoke a revolution. Napoleon III bowed and Trochu left alone for Paris; we know how he deceived the confidence of the sovereign by making a deal with the rioters on September 4th."
during the second republic he sat on the extreme left, he was a "montagnard" and republican He embodies the left wing - anticlerical and democratic - of the Bonapartist movement against a conservative right wing and authoritarian, he was also Ministry of Algeria and the Colonies during one decade, he defends the workers whom he helps to organize collectively, frequent the most beautiful minds of the moment, from George Sand to Gustave Flaubert, from Proudhon to Alexandre, he was also hated by a good part of the country for his behavior, anticléricalism, and his expensive travel craziness. (even if with his own fund he was a hardliner skinflint)
It's really an interesting character with his dawdling between his convictions and the defense of the second empire, his excesses, his political commitment.
He seems like the right man to lead a Republican France or a Liberal Second Empire. A French Washington... hmmm, I'll have to look more into this but I think I have an idea...
Chapter 47: The Southern Cross shines
The decade of the 1850’s was radically different for La Plata and Brazil. The decade in Colombia was characterized by progress and party squabbles; in Mexico, it was defined by the war and its aftermath. But the situations of the Northern Empire and the Republic had one element in common with those of the Confederation and the Southern Empire: the search for a national identity. What does it mean to be Colombian, Platinean, Mexican or Brazilian? Were the mestizo, indigenous and black masses part of these nations, nations dominated by Criollos descended from the former colonial masters? These four countries all tried to answer these questions, all shook by different events. In the case of La Plata and Brazil, the defining event was the Triple War.
The Triple War, a messy and bloody event, was even more politically destructive. La Plata had succumbed to divisions and a civil war started between Orientales and Porteños, ending with the victory of the Porteño Rosas, who became a dictator. In Brazil the situation wasn’t much better. Emperor Pedro II had resigned after a failed military coup, and that forced the Duke of Caxias to actually step in and take over the government. Soon enough, he abandoned the post and was replaced with the Marques de Sousa, who signed the Treaty of Corrientes that accepted Platinean ownership of the Banda Oriental and the Independence of Rio Grande do Sul.
Yet Sousa was only a reluctant ruler. He was a monarchist who wanted the Empire to continue and despised the military fanatics that had forced the hand of Dom Pedro. But the former Emperor was not willing to return, despite calls to do so from the people and the government. By that time the Army had been heavily discredited, the veterans furious with the commanders that had led them to disaster and humiliation. The coup attempt was widely seen as a grave mistake. Even though it bothered him, with letters and speeches revealing his troubled feelings, Sousa decided to put all the blame on the Duke of Caxias, who accepted it if it was necessary to save the Empire. This allowed the Sousa faction of the Army to take command. Soon enough, a purge of the officers that instigated the coup took place and Sousa called for elections.
The Brazilian elections of 1852 took place under a climate of uncertainty and fear. What would become of Brazil? Was it still an Empire? How could it be, when there was no Emperor and no Regent? Sousa had proclaimed an Estado Novo, a new Brazil that would leave the embers of war and a collapsing economy behind and advance together into the future. Yet there was no clear vision of how this would be achieved. And that was a problem that had always plagued Brazil – the lack of a clear vision of Brazil’s destiny. Colombia and her block were aligned with Britain, in France Mexico found a protector. La Plata was rebuilding its ties with both Great Powers. And although they stumbled, all those countries had made paths for themselves: Colombia and its future of industry and progress, Mexico and its imperial glory that blinded even the United States, and La Plata with a destiny to be found in the Patagonia and compromise. What was Brazil’s destiny?
Marques de Sousa
The elections would be a referendum on this. The main competitors were the Republicans, the Conservative Monarchists and hard-right or even reactionary Imperial Monarchists. The latter were the choice of the army and special interests, while the Republicans were the main representatives of the Brazilian left. But both factions alienated significant sections of the population. The Imperial Monarchists were seen as extremists and a threat to democracy and popular government; the Republicans were anathema to Brazilian liberals who still supported the Monarchy. This allowed the Conservatives to achieve a crushing victory in the Parliamentary elections (the Upper House was appointed by the Emperor and had almost no powers, and since there was no Emperor it remained out of session). Sousa using the faction of the Army loyal to him and the former Emperor to suppress the vote of his opponents also helped.
Sousa interpreted this government as a mandate from the people, ignoring accusations of cheating. But there was a problem: Brazil was an Empire without a ruler. Consequently, Sousa set out to find a new Emperor. Or Empress.
Princess Isabel of the House of Braganza, the eldest daughter of Dom Pedro II would solve many of Sousa’s problems. Being Brazilian born and raised until her father took her to Portugal, and also a direct continuation of the previous rulers and thus a legitimate heir in the eyes of the people, Isabel was the top candidate. However, she was but a child of six years. No problem, said Sousa, after all Dom Pedro II himself had only been a child when he assumed the throne. Some expressed concerns because that was what led Dom Pedro to indecisiveness and passiveness, and hating his post as Emperor. To solve this Sousa raised the age for assuming the throne to 21 years and made it clear that the future Empress wouldn’t have to concern herself with governance if she so desired.
Conservatives opposed this, the main question being whether a woman would be able to lead the Empire at such a pivotal time. Nonsense, answered the Monarchists. After all, the ruler of the British Empire was a woman. And Isabel wouldn’t be the government, just like in Britain she would be merely a figurehead. The second question was her age. A regency would be installed, and Sousa began courting Isabel’s mother, Teresa Cristina. Teresa was the wife of Dom Pedro II, and though the couple respected each other, they never developed a romantic relationship. Teresa was kind and intelligent, if reserved and conservative. The people adored her, calling her the Mother of Brazilians.
Teresa Cristina
With the almost unanimous approval of Parliament, Sousa offered the crown to Isabel and invited Teresa to be the Regent. Teresa was reluctant at first, while Dom Pedro showed cold indifference to the matter. He still loved his people, but he wanted to distance himself from Brazil and instead remain in Portugal. However, he ultimately pushed Teresa to accept, conscious that Brazil needed leadership. Teresa and Isabel were overjoyed to return to their beloved land and people, and in September 16th, 1853, the Braganzas returned to Brazil after almost three years. Preparations for the official crowning of Isabel as Empress and Teresa as Regent took slightly more than a year. The ceremony was attended by British and French representatives, the President of Colombia Luis Bonifaz and Princess Maria of Mexico (Emperor Agustin II’s second daughter).
In the three years before the Braganzas returned, Sousa concerned himself with the economy. The lost of Rio Grande had been a serious hit for the Empire. A significant part of Brazil’s foreign immigrants, agricultural production and industry was focused on the area. The new Riograndese republic had been devastated from the war, which saw its territory as a main battlefield. Rio Grande soon fell under Colombian influence and became part of the Colombian block, with Colombian companies and investors pouring money to spark an economic recuperation. The Colombian crash of 1852 derailed these efforts, but by 1854 Rio Grande was on the way to recovery and stability. Silva remained in power, but popular discontentment made him promise to step down and hold elections in 1855. Reform-oriented Liberals won the elections and Antônio de Sousa Neto, an abolitionist who took part in the Farrapos War as a general, won a single 6-year term, without reelection.
Sousa decided to pursue the “high road” with the Riograndeses. In 1852 the newly-elected Parliament approved a Treaty of Friendship and Commerce, that normalized relations between the two nations though Sousa failed to get “most privileged nation” status for Brazil. That honor instead went to Colombia, which imported leather, wine and meat while flooding Rio Grande with arms, textiles and other industrial products. Still, Sousa declared peace and friendship, which helped to pacify the chaotic border and the restive Gauchos. Soon enough Rio Grande was recognized by the European Powers, Mexico, and the United States. Immigration and industrial investment, especially of Colombians and British in cattle ranches and plantations, resumed.
As for Brazil’s own relationship with other powers, Sousa believed that Brazil’s lackluster relations with Europe had helped to the defeat. Brazil had refused to align itself either with the British or the French, and as a result it was alone. Though La Plata’s alignment with France wasn’t worth much either due to political intrigues in both countries, Mexico’s alliance with France had allowed it to fight against the Gringos. Decided to court Europe, Sousa quickly found a willing lady in Britannia. The British welcomed the chance for bigger control in Latin America, especially in the face of Colombia’s economic crisis and political problems.
When it came to Colombia and Brazil’s relationship with her, Sousa faced several problems. Resentment against Colombia was high, especially after Cruz’s infamous “Oriental Mission” that supplied arms and vital war materiel to Rio Grande and Paraguay. There was also backlash against Simon Bolivar’s participation as commander of Paraguay’s forces. Though Bolivar’s actions weren’t sanctioned by the Colombian government, Bolivar was still a Colombian man. Colombia’s grandeur delusions didn’t help matters.
Empress Isabel of Brazil
Many people within the government believed that Colombia was a threat that had to be addressed. Especially worrying was how, despite the economic crisis, Colombia still could build its own Ironclad. The ARC Hispaniola, funded with the French loan the Bonifaz administration took, was completely made in Colombia, using Hispaniola timber, Andean iron worked by the Caracas Iron Works, and cannons of the Colombian Arms Company. The Ironclad was of questionable quality, a British observer even reportedly being surprised that it could float at all, but it represented an achievement nonetheless. And since Brazil’s once powerful navy had been weakened by continuous war around the Rio de la Plata, and Brazil had no capacity whatsoever to build Ironclads or Battleships by herself, this was seen as a threat. Despite this, Sousa still accepted President Bonifaz’s friendly overtures.
Brazil, like most of Latin America, was still agricultural. Unlike the other countries of the region, however, it was dependent on slavery for the production of tropical goods such as sugar and tobacco. Industry was small and foreign owned, and most of Brazil’s capital wasn’t correctly administered or re-invested. A new model had to be followed, that was clear. Inspired by reforms in Colombia, the US and the new Mexican reforms under Salazar, Brazil started to reform, hoping to modernize and become a real power in the region.
After the return of the Braganzas, Sousa and Regent Teresa worked on a new constitution. Following trends of reform and liberalism that were overtaking Latin America during the period of the so called Semi-Centennial Revolutions, the new Constitution allowed universal male voting, increased Federalism within the Empire, personal liberties, and a stable and powerful Parliament that would be elected every 5 years. Elections were called for 1855 and, unsurprisingly, Sousa’s Monarchist Party achieved yet another smashing victory. Sousa was elected as Prime Minister and he set off for creating a new Brazil. Though the Triple War had been disastrous and the aftermath dark, it seemed that Brazil was back on track and ready to accomplish more.
Meanwhile, in Paraguay, the situation was simply confusing. Francia, el Supremo, had dominated the country so thoroughly that most of the military establishment that won the war wasn’t sure the people were ready or even wanted democracy. Bolivar was the most influential of them, but the aging Libertador was suffering of homesickness. By then Bolivar had become something of a romantic world hero, known for his exploits in the Independence Wars and now the Triple War, yet he had failed to become President of Colombia as he dreamed of. By then an old man of almost 70 years, Bolivar wanted to return to his home. He wrote a constitution for Paraguay and then set sail from Rio Grande in 1851, arriving in Caracas to great celebrations.
Though some old Colombian Federalists and colleagues still felt resentment for his coup attempt against Santander, his letter from Asuncion that helped put down Flores’ revolt was warmly remembered and the National Conservative Party governments of Cruz and Diaz helped to rehabilitate his image as a hero and a Patriot. President Diaz himself went to meet Bolivar, and there were celebrations in Santafe and Quito. Happy to see his dream of a powerful and united Colombia, even if some details were different, Bolivar settled down. A year later he died, the poet Alberto Ortiz reportedly saying that his old heart only kept on with the hope of seeing his homeland once more (“su Viejo Corazón siguió latiendo, motivado solo por el anhelo, de un día a su patria volver”). He was the last of the big Libertadores of Colombia, dying after Miranda, Nariño, and Santander. Only Manuela Saenz and O’Leary survived from those times of yesteryear.
The Death of Bolivar
Bolivar’s constitution reflected much of Bolivar’s views, views many considered to be of a bygone era of state-building. He and other Libertadores developed those ideas when they had to make new states from scratch. Now those states existed and the fight wasn’t between a mano dura (autocratic) and mano guiadora (democratic) approach to government, but the struggle to create a nation for the state. Paraguay was, however, less affected by the reforming-wave that overwhelmed Latin America during the 1850’s and caused Medina’s Revolution in Peru, Political reform in Chile, the Return of the Braganzas in Brazil, the Young Colombia movement in Colombia, revolts in Cuba and Puerto Rico, and a Liberal wave in Mexico.
Paraguay, under Bolivar’s constitution, would have a Congress of two houses, a lower House elected by the people and an Upper House appointed by the President to lifelong posts. The President would be elected by Congress every 7 years, and elections for the Lower House would take place every four. The Constitution didn’t introduce real democracy or reform, but it pledged to protect individual liberties and rights. It was, all together, an important baby step. Charkas was also taking baby steps of its own, with the Colombian-sponsored dictatorship there thawing into a Colombian-supported pseudo-democracy after the Pacific War.
La Plata also underwent important changes during the 1850’s. Like Brazil, the Triple War was disastrous, especially for the Orientales. By the end of the war the Orientales and the Porteños, led by Rosas, were basically fighting two separate wars and then one civil war against each other. The Oriental Provinces weren’t happy about being under the autocratic Rosas, who also did away with the Platinean Parliament, judging it to be useless. He started the National Reorganization Process (Proceso de Reorganización Nacional) an attempt to create a unitary Platinean state, instead of squabbling little States. Yet, the provinces resisted these efforts, especially Oriental Provinces and Corrientes.
These two provinces were the main fronts of the war, a war which destroyed many plantations and wrecked their economy. The result was weakness, while the still wealthy and, aside from naval shelling and blockades, relatively unscathed Buenos Aires took the initiative. Rosas’ foreign policies, however, were often inept and drew the fury of other states, especially France and the UK. The point of conflict was the Rio de la Plata and navigation rights. In the Treaty of Corrientes that ended the war, Rosas begrudgingly accepted granting navigation rights to Paraguay and Rio Grande, but he refused to grant them to Brazil or other countries. The European powers decided to start a joint blockade of Buenos Aires. The Platinean Navy, destroyed after years of conflict with Brazil, was unable to do much. Protests soon erupted in the capital against Rosas and his government, and he signed the Treaty of Buenos Aires with both powers, granting free navigation of the river system to Europe, Colombia, Brazil, Mexico and the US.
This unified the opposition to Rosas, and, together with waves of intellectualism and reform desire as a result of the Semi-Centennial Revolutions, set the stage for a Platinean Revolution. The Revolution came with the alzamiento of Corrientes in 1853 under the General Justo José de Urquiza. The Oriental Provinces soon joined Urquiza, demanding the creation of a Republic under federalist and liberal principles. Rosas still enjoyed the support of some Unitarios from Buenos Aires, but a lot of conservatives deserted his ranks due to the non-existent economic recovery and the humiliating Treaty of Buenos Aires.
Justo José de Urquiza
Soon enough most provinces of La Plata joined Urquiza in opposing Rosas and the Unitarios. The Ejército Grande (Great Army) of Urquiza attacked Rosas, who led his own Ejército Nacional (National Army) to try and crush the Corrientes insurrection. Urquiza was successful, winning the battle of Curuzú Cuatiá, and following this with a victory in the siege of Montevideo. Rosas’ hold in power was quickly slipping and it finally disappeared with the Battle of Caseros, a decisive victory for the provinces. Rosas stepped down as ruler of La Plata, and revolutionaries took control of Buenos Aires. Soon enough, Urquiza called for elections to a Constitutional Congress in Santa Fe.
The resulting Platinean Constitution of 1855 created a Federal and Liberal Republic where all the states enjoyed equality, whether Federal or Unitario, Porteño or Oriental. The Platinean Republic, or República del Rio de la Plata, would also protect individual properties and rights, such as voting, and support education, immigration and modernization. Most of the caudillos of the different provinces would remain in power, but in due time their power was reduced in favor of the Federal government. Like the events in Brazil, the Platinean Revolution answered to an intense yearning of modernization and being allowed to play a part in the world stage. The Constitutional Congress also approved what became known as the Federal Compromise (Compromiso Federal), which secured the union of all the provinces. Under the compromise, the Presidency would switch between the Porteños and the Orientales every election.
The first election took place in 1856, with Urquiza winning, though whether these elections can be called democratic is contested. Elections for the President and Senators, would take place every six years, for Congressmen, every four. The Federal Compromise finally quieted down the desire for independence in Corrientes and Oriental Provinces, and inaugurated a new political era, characterized by the government changing between the conservative Nationalist Party (Partido Nacionalista) from Buenos Aires and the liberal and reformist Federal Party (Partido Federal).
The Semi-Centennial Revolutions toppled the military governments of La Plata, Brazil, Paraguay and Rio Grande, and opened the way for greater progress and prosperity in the future, as every nation in the South Cone left the Triple War behind and stepped confidently into the future. The search for a national identity and destiny was not over, but now there was a clear path of progress, that would eventually bring wealth, stability and real democracy to an area once hit by war, famine and civil conflicts.
The Triple War, a messy and bloody event, was even more politically destructive. La Plata had succumbed to divisions and a civil war started between Orientales and Porteños, ending with the victory of the Porteño Rosas, who became a dictator. In Brazil the situation wasn’t much better. Emperor Pedro II had resigned after a failed military coup, and that forced the Duke of Caxias to actually step in and take over the government. Soon enough, he abandoned the post and was replaced with the Marques de Sousa, who signed the Treaty of Corrientes that accepted Platinean ownership of the Banda Oriental and the Independence of Rio Grande do Sul.
Yet Sousa was only a reluctant ruler. He was a monarchist who wanted the Empire to continue and despised the military fanatics that had forced the hand of Dom Pedro. But the former Emperor was not willing to return, despite calls to do so from the people and the government. By that time the Army had been heavily discredited, the veterans furious with the commanders that had led them to disaster and humiliation. The coup attempt was widely seen as a grave mistake. Even though it bothered him, with letters and speeches revealing his troubled feelings, Sousa decided to put all the blame on the Duke of Caxias, who accepted it if it was necessary to save the Empire. This allowed the Sousa faction of the Army to take command. Soon enough, a purge of the officers that instigated the coup took place and Sousa called for elections.
The Brazilian elections of 1852 took place under a climate of uncertainty and fear. What would become of Brazil? Was it still an Empire? How could it be, when there was no Emperor and no Regent? Sousa had proclaimed an Estado Novo, a new Brazil that would leave the embers of war and a collapsing economy behind and advance together into the future. Yet there was no clear vision of how this would be achieved. And that was a problem that had always plagued Brazil – the lack of a clear vision of Brazil’s destiny. Colombia and her block were aligned with Britain, in France Mexico found a protector. La Plata was rebuilding its ties with both Great Powers. And although they stumbled, all those countries had made paths for themselves: Colombia and its future of industry and progress, Mexico and its imperial glory that blinded even the United States, and La Plata with a destiny to be found in the Patagonia and compromise. What was Brazil’s destiny?
Marques de Sousa
Sousa interpreted this government as a mandate from the people, ignoring accusations of cheating. But there was a problem: Brazil was an Empire without a ruler. Consequently, Sousa set out to find a new Emperor. Or Empress.
Princess Isabel of the House of Braganza, the eldest daughter of Dom Pedro II would solve many of Sousa’s problems. Being Brazilian born and raised until her father took her to Portugal, and also a direct continuation of the previous rulers and thus a legitimate heir in the eyes of the people, Isabel was the top candidate. However, she was but a child of six years. No problem, said Sousa, after all Dom Pedro II himself had only been a child when he assumed the throne. Some expressed concerns because that was what led Dom Pedro to indecisiveness and passiveness, and hating his post as Emperor. To solve this Sousa raised the age for assuming the throne to 21 years and made it clear that the future Empress wouldn’t have to concern herself with governance if she so desired.
Conservatives opposed this, the main question being whether a woman would be able to lead the Empire at such a pivotal time. Nonsense, answered the Monarchists. After all, the ruler of the British Empire was a woman. And Isabel wouldn’t be the government, just like in Britain she would be merely a figurehead. The second question was her age. A regency would be installed, and Sousa began courting Isabel’s mother, Teresa Cristina. Teresa was the wife of Dom Pedro II, and though the couple respected each other, they never developed a romantic relationship. Teresa was kind and intelligent, if reserved and conservative. The people adored her, calling her the Mother of Brazilians.
Teresa Cristina
With the almost unanimous approval of Parliament, Sousa offered the crown to Isabel and invited Teresa to be the Regent. Teresa was reluctant at first, while Dom Pedro showed cold indifference to the matter. He still loved his people, but he wanted to distance himself from Brazil and instead remain in Portugal. However, he ultimately pushed Teresa to accept, conscious that Brazil needed leadership. Teresa and Isabel were overjoyed to return to their beloved land and people, and in September 16th, 1853, the Braganzas returned to Brazil after almost three years. Preparations for the official crowning of Isabel as Empress and Teresa as Regent took slightly more than a year. The ceremony was attended by British and French representatives, the President of Colombia Luis Bonifaz and Princess Maria of Mexico (Emperor Agustin II’s second daughter).
In the three years before the Braganzas returned, Sousa concerned himself with the economy. The lost of Rio Grande had been a serious hit for the Empire. A significant part of Brazil’s foreign immigrants, agricultural production and industry was focused on the area. The new Riograndese republic had been devastated from the war, which saw its territory as a main battlefield. Rio Grande soon fell under Colombian influence and became part of the Colombian block, with Colombian companies and investors pouring money to spark an economic recuperation. The Colombian crash of 1852 derailed these efforts, but by 1854 Rio Grande was on the way to recovery and stability. Silva remained in power, but popular discontentment made him promise to step down and hold elections in 1855. Reform-oriented Liberals won the elections and Antônio de Sousa Neto, an abolitionist who took part in the Farrapos War as a general, won a single 6-year term, without reelection.
Sousa decided to pursue the “high road” with the Riograndeses. In 1852 the newly-elected Parliament approved a Treaty of Friendship and Commerce, that normalized relations between the two nations though Sousa failed to get “most privileged nation” status for Brazil. That honor instead went to Colombia, which imported leather, wine and meat while flooding Rio Grande with arms, textiles and other industrial products. Still, Sousa declared peace and friendship, which helped to pacify the chaotic border and the restive Gauchos. Soon enough Rio Grande was recognized by the European Powers, Mexico, and the United States. Immigration and industrial investment, especially of Colombians and British in cattle ranches and plantations, resumed.
As for Brazil’s own relationship with other powers, Sousa believed that Brazil’s lackluster relations with Europe had helped to the defeat. Brazil had refused to align itself either with the British or the French, and as a result it was alone. Though La Plata’s alignment with France wasn’t worth much either due to political intrigues in both countries, Mexico’s alliance with France had allowed it to fight against the Gringos. Decided to court Europe, Sousa quickly found a willing lady in Britannia. The British welcomed the chance for bigger control in Latin America, especially in the face of Colombia’s economic crisis and political problems.
When it came to Colombia and Brazil’s relationship with her, Sousa faced several problems. Resentment against Colombia was high, especially after Cruz’s infamous “Oriental Mission” that supplied arms and vital war materiel to Rio Grande and Paraguay. There was also backlash against Simon Bolivar’s participation as commander of Paraguay’s forces. Though Bolivar’s actions weren’t sanctioned by the Colombian government, Bolivar was still a Colombian man. Colombia’s grandeur delusions didn’t help matters.
Empress Isabel of Brazil
Many people within the government believed that Colombia was a threat that had to be addressed. Especially worrying was how, despite the economic crisis, Colombia still could build its own Ironclad. The ARC Hispaniola, funded with the French loan the Bonifaz administration took, was completely made in Colombia, using Hispaniola timber, Andean iron worked by the Caracas Iron Works, and cannons of the Colombian Arms Company. The Ironclad was of questionable quality, a British observer even reportedly being surprised that it could float at all, but it represented an achievement nonetheless. And since Brazil’s once powerful navy had been weakened by continuous war around the Rio de la Plata, and Brazil had no capacity whatsoever to build Ironclads or Battleships by herself, this was seen as a threat. Despite this, Sousa still accepted President Bonifaz’s friendly overtures.
Brazil, like most of Latin America, was still agricultural. Unlike the other countries of the region, however, it was dependent on slavery for the production of tropical goods such as sugar and tobacco. Industry was small and foreign owned, and most of Brazil’s capital wasn’t correctly administered or re-invested. A new model had to be followed, that was clear. Inspired by reforms in Colombia, the US and the new Mexican reforms under Salazar, Brazil started to reform, hoping to modernize and become a real power in the region.
After the return of the Braganzas, Sousa and Regent Teresa worked on a new constitution. Following trends of reform and liberalism that were overtaking Latin America during the period of the so called Semi-Centennial Revolutions, the new Constitution allowed universal male voting, increased Federalism within the Empire, personal liberties, and a stable and powerful Parliament that would be elected every 5 years. Elections were called for 1855 and, unsurprisingly, Sousa’s Monarchist Party achieved yet another smashing victory. Sousa was elected as Prime Minister and he set off for creating a new Brazil. Though the Triple War had been disastrous and the aftermath dark, it seemed that Brazil was back on track and ready to accomplish more.
Meanwhile, in Paraguay, the situation was simply confusing. Francia, el Supremo, had dominated the country so thoroughly that most of the military establishment that won the war wasn’t sure the people were ready or even wanted democracy. Bolivar was the most influential of them, but the aging Libertador was suffering of homesickness. By then Bolivar had become something of a romantic world hero, known for his exploits in the Independence Wars and now the Triple War, yet he had failed to become President of Colombia as he dreamed of. By then an old man of almost 70 years, Bolivar wanted to return to his home. He wrote a constitution for Paraguay and then set sail from Rio Grande in 1851, arriving in Caracas to great celebrations.
Though some old Colombian Federalists and colleagues still felt resentment for his coup attempt against Santander, his letter from Asuncion that helped put down Flores’ revolt was warmly remembered and the National Conservative Party governments of Cruz and Diaz helped to rehabilitate his image as a hero and a Patriot. President Diaz himself went to meet Bolivar, and there were celebrations in Santafe and Quito. Happy to see his dream of a powerful and united Colombia, even if some details were different, Bolivar settled down. A year later he died, the poet Alberto Ortiz reportedly saying that his old heart only kept on with the hope of seeing his homeland once more (“su Viejo Corazón siguió latiendo, motivado solo por el anhelo, de un día a su patria volver”). He was the last of the big Libertadores of Colombia, dying after Miranda, Nariño, and Santander. Only Manuela Saenz and O’Leary survived from those times of yesteryear.
The Death of Bolivar
Bolivar’s constitution reflected much of Bolivar’s views, views many considered to be of a bygone era of state-building. He and other Libertadores developed those ideas when they had to make new states from scratch. Now those states existed and the fight wasn’t between a mano dura (autocratic) and mano guiadora (democratic) approach to government, but the struggle to create a nation for the state. Paraguay was, however, less affected by the reforming-wave that overwhelmed Latin America during the 1850’s and caused Medina’s Revolution in Peru, Political reform in Chile, the Return of the Braganzas in Brazil, the Young Colombia movement in Colombia, revolts in Cuba and Puerto Rico, and a Liberal wave in Mexico.
Paraguay, under Bolivar’s constitution, would have a Congress of two houses, a lower House elected by the people and an Upper House appointed by the President to lifelong posts. The President would be elected by Congress every 7 years, and elections for the Lower House would take place every four. The Constitution didn’t introduce real democracy or reform, but it pledged to protect individual liberties and rights. It was, all together, an important baby step. Charkas was also taking baby steps of its own, with the Colombian-sponsored dictatorship there thawing into a Colombian-supported pseudo-democracy after the Pacific War.
La Plata also underwent important changes during the 1850’s. Like Brazil, the Triple War was disastrous, especially for the Orientales. By the end of the war the Orientales and the Porteños, led by Rosas, were basically fighting two separate wars and then one civil war against each other. The Oriental Provinces weren’t happy about being under the autocratic Rosas, who also did away with the Platinean Parliament, judging it to be useless. He started the National Reorganization Process (Proceso de Reorganización Nacional) an attempt to create a unitary Platinean state, instead of squabbling little States. Yet, the provinces resisted these efforts, especially Oriental Provinces and Corrientes.
These two provinces were the main fronts of the war, a war which destroyed many plantations and wrecked their economy. The result was weakness, while the still wealthy and, aside from naval shelling and blockades, relatively unscathed Buenos Aires took the initiative. Rosas’ foreign policies, however, were often inept and drew the fury of other states, especially France and the UK. The point of conflict was the Rio de la Plata and navigation rights. In the Treaty of Corrientes that ended the war, Rosas begrudgingly accepted granting navigation rights to Paraguay and Rio Grande, but he refused to grant them to Brazil or other countries. The European powers decided to start a joint blockade of Buenos Aires. The Platinean Navy, destroyed after years of conflict with Brazil, was unable to do much. Protests soon erupted in the capital against Rosas and his government, and he signed the Treaty of Buenos Aires with both powers, granting free navigation of the river system to Europe, Colombia, Brazil, Mexico and the US.
This unified the opposition to Rosas, and, together with waves of intellectualism and reform desire as a result of the Semi-Centennial Revolutions, set the stage for a Platinean Revolution. The Revolution came with the alzamiento of Corrientes in 1853 under the General Justo José de Urquiza. The Oriental Provinces soon joined Urquiza, demanding the creation of a Republic under federalist and liberal principles. Rosas still enjoyed the support of some Unitarios from Buenos Aires, but a lot of conservatives deserted his ranks due to the non-existent economic recovery and the humiliating Treaty of Buenos Aires.
Justo José de Urquiza
Soon enough most provinces of La Plata joined Urquiza in opposing Rosas and the Unitarios. The Ejército Grande (Great Army) of Urquiza attacked Rosas, who led his own Ejército Nacional (National Army) to try and crush the Corrientes insurrection. Urquiza was successful, winning the battle of Curuzú Cuatiá, and following this with a victory in the siege of Montevideo. Rosas’ hold in power was quickly slipping and it finally disappeared with the Battle of Caseros, a decisive victory for the provinces. Rosas stepped down as ruler of La Plata, and revolutionaries took control of Buenos Aires. Soon enough, Urquiza called for elections to a Constitutional Congress in Santa Fe.
The resulting Platinean Constitution of 1855 created a Federal and Liberal Republic where all the states enjoyed equality, whether Federal or Unitario, Porteño or Oriental. The Platinean Republic, or República del Rio de la Plata, would also protect individual properties and rights, such as voting, and support education, immigration and modernization. Most of the caudillos of the different provinces would remain in power, but in due time their power was reduced in favor of the Federal government. Like the events in Brazil, the Platinean Revolution answered to an intense yearning of modernization and being allowed to play a part in the world stage. The Constitutional Congress also approved what became known as the Federal Compromise (Compromiso Federal), which secured the union of all the provinces. Under the compromise, the Presidency would switch between the Porteños and the Orientales every election.
The first election took place in 1856, with Urquiza winning, though whether these elections can be called democratic is contested. Elections for the President and Senators, would take place every six years, for Congressmen, every four. The Federal Compromise finally quieted down the desire for independence in Corrientes and Oriental Provinces, and inaugurated a new political era, characterized by the government changing between the conservative Nationalist Party (Partido Nacionalista) from Buenos Aires and the liberal and reformist Federal Party (Partido Federal).
The Semi-Centennial Revolutions toppled the military governments of La Plata, Brazil, Paraguay and Rio Grande, and opened the way for greater progress and prosperity in the future, as every nation in the South Cone left the Triple War behind and stepped confidently into the future. The search for a national identity and destiny was not over, but now there was a clear path of progress, that would eventually bring wealth, stability and real democracy to an area once hit by war, famine and civil conflicts.
I just wanted to say that I came to this timeline relatively late - really only in the past few weeks - and so I'm playing catch up on figuring out all that is going on (I'm going to have to give it a read through from the beginning). That being said, this was a great update and I'm really enjoying what I've read so far. Latin America isn't a region that I know nearly as much about as I should, and so I'm looking at this as an opportunity to learn more. Keep up the great job!
Thank you very much! There's a re-cap of the first 20 chapters or so that can help you, and I plan to write another recap soon.
Anyway, what do you guys think about the update? Please, comment with any sugerences and like the update so I know you're still reading! Let me know how to improve.
Nice update. I have a question--compeletely irrelevant to the topic of this update: with manifest destiny while not halted, at least blunted, does America direct her expansionism elsewhere? Northwards to Canada seems rather pointless, and useless to the expansionist Southern states; southwards to Cuba meets the Spanish, but I can't imagine Colombia would be exactly happy with so great an American presence in the Caribbean. Perhaps Africa?
Canada is indeed pointless, and there probably won't be any more officially sanctioned excursions into Mexico. But, that doesn't stop the filibusters, who are probably going to try to take Central America and Cuba. Try is the keyword here. Colombia indeed won't be happy about this... As for Africa, well, Liberia still exists but the objective of American expansionism is either more land for whites or more land for slavery, not resources. So Africa is most likely not an option.
It's a good end for him. I have already said it here, and I'll say it again: I don't like Bolivar, and I think he's completely to blame for the failure of Gran Colombia. However, I still respect him and applaud him for the good he did to Latin America.
I do loved how you dealt with Bolívar. Complicated guy indeed, as so many others in the history of our nations.
How is the current situation in Asia and Africa, same as IOTL? If so, it's time for the Sepoy Mutiny? Also, Spain did retain the Philippines, right? And finally, is the Crimean War is also happening this time?
How is the current situation in Asia and Africa, same as IOTL? If so, it's time for the Sepoy Mutiny? Also, Spain did retain the Philippines, right? And finally, is the Crimean War is also happening this time?
Thanks. I see him as a tragic figure.
France is way more involved in Japan and Egypt ITTL, which will have ramifications. Sepoy Mutiny will take place very soon. Spain does have the Philippines, but like always they don't do much with them. Colombia is eyeing them though. No Crimean War yet, though tensions are in the rise.
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