The Bubonic Death - Spread and mortality
Bubonic Death
or the Second Plague Pandemic
The Bubonic Death (also known as the Genoan Plague, the Mongol Plague, the Second Plague Pandemic or the Persian Plague) was a series of major outbreaks of the bubonic plague across the Afro-Eurasian continent between 1345 and 1354. It was the most fatal pandemic in recorded human history, causing the death of 100-350 million people. Likely originating from the area between the Tian Shan mountains and the Tarim Basin, the plague quickly spread via the silk road to Crimea and from there to the rest of the Middle East, Europe, Africa and Asia.
Spread
The first likely mention of what would eventually evolve into becoming the Bubonic Death comes from Issyk-Kul, where Nestorian graves, dating from 1338-1339, describe plague-like symptoms. From there the plague was likely carried west via the vast trans-continental silk road, to cities in Central Asia and further into Crimea; towards Europe and across the Caucasus; towards the Levant. Another major vector of transmission was in the form of Central Asian mercenaries travelling towards India to serve in the retinue of the Delhi Sultan, leading to outbreaks in northern India as early as 1344.
The plague reached Crimea in 1345, via Italian merchants, it spread from there to Constantinople and onwards to Italy, Egypt, Al-Andalus and North Africa. Further yet into Syria and Mecca through the Hajj caravans and into Sudan, Yemen, Abyssinia Iraq, Oman, Persia, Zangistan and the Deccan through trade routes. By 1352 the spread of the plague stretched from Mali to Majapahit and from Kilwa to Kazan. The outbreak reached full circle when, in 1354, a strain of the plague, likely originating from Malacca, ravaged eastern China.
Outbreaks in Europe across the Alps, southern France and the Balkans are scarce and far between. A minor outbreak in Lubeck was recorded in June 1350 and another in Erfurt in September the same year, though mortality rates remain relatively low across all of these cases.
Consequences
The total estimated death toll of the Bubonic Death lies between 100 and 350 million people.
Estimates for the death tolls vary significantly across geographical regions. Rural areas such as those in Central Asia and steppe regions were relatively lightly hit compared to large urban centres such as those in the Levant and the Ganges delta. These aforementioned regions lost approximately two-thirds of their population, all cities were reduced in size and some were even abandoned entirely. Ibn Battuta, the Moorish traveller and merchant, describes travelling through abandoned towns and cities throughout al-Andalusia and Sudan.
Socioeconomic effects
The swift population decline brought on by the plague led to sweeping changes socioeconomic changes throughout Europe, Asia and Africa. After the plague swept through the levant the survivors found themselves returning to vacant fields, homes and estates. Along the Nile, labour-saving innovations in agriculture were developed and the conditions and wages of the remaining farmers increased across the board.
Though the urban populations throughout the affected areas wouldn’t recover in size until the 15th or 17th century, in some cases, the Bubonic Death would usher in the Second Islamic Golden Age. With Baghdad still reeling from the Mongol invasion a couple of years earlier coupled with the plague, Cairo and Isfahan became the new centres of the Islamic world.
Along the Zangistani coast, the Muslim power base in the urban centres of Kilwa and Zanzibar declined and raids from the interior became more and more frequent and effective. Abandonment of the East African trade ports led to a decline in trade around these parts of the Indian ocean throughout the late middle ages. The Omani and Persian reconquests of Zangistan in 1533, spurred by a bullion famine, were launched to rekindle the Zangistani gold trade.
Persecutions
Jews and particularly Christians were taken as scapegoats and faced a new wave of persecution throughout the Muslim world during and immediately after the outbreaks. In Baghdad, it is said that after the plague had passed, the surviving Christians were driven to the river Tigris. In Cairo, it is said that Jews were thrown from tall towers and buildings, and in al-Andalus, a Rabbi muses the three fates for an Iberian Jew “the plague, the Moorish blade or France”.
Meanwhile, the Sultanate of Delhi, due to increased persecution and taxing towards the Dhimmi, faced several Hindu peasant revolts. These revolts culminated in the Princes’ and Peasants’ revolt in 1374, which toppled the Tughlaq dynasty of sultans.
A interesting aspect of this is that the global cooling which followed the Black Death would result in surplus population in Northern and Central Europe moving East and South.
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