If we assume that Germany attacks Poland at roughly the same time as in OTL, what effect would this have on Spain if the Civil War was still going on? Would Spain be dragged into WW2? The republican government would clearly have an interest in this, as it might mean military help from the allied powers (probably only weapons to begin with, as British and French military forces would be busy elsewhere). I am not sure what would be the latest possible POD for the republican forces to keep going into WW2. Even if the republican government fell some time during the early war, I would assume that a phalangist government would not survive the fall of Germany (which, if Germany still attacks the Soviet Union, would probably be inevitable).
Longer Spanish Civil War
- Thread starter Eivind
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- spain world war 2 ww2
Intervention will occur to 'clean up the Iberian mess'. No need to speculate on who wins that. Such intervention would be most likely in the late summer/autum of 1940, & would reduce the threat against Britain. It could also reduce the strength against the USSR in 1941, or butterfly away Italian war with Greece and the Balkans wars in general, at least for another year or two.
A sequence might be: BoB reduced, August - September 1940.
Intervention in Spain August - November 1940. Includes major Italian elements which eliminated possibility of Greek war.
Decision to attack the USSR taken as OTL.
German assistance to italians in Africa Spring 1941
Attack in the east June 1941. Exact strength depends on trade losses from a Iberian campaign, the BoB, & if there is no Balkans campaign.
German DoW on US latter 1941.
A sequence might be: BoB reduced, August - September 1940.
Intervention in Spain August - November 1940. Includes major Italian elements which eliminated possibility of Greek war.
Decision to attack the USSR taken as OTL.
German assistance to italians in Africa Spring 1941
Attack in the east June 1941. Exact strength depends on trade losses from a Iberian campaign, the BoB, & if there is no Balkans campaign.
German DoW on US latter 1941.
The reason Negrin resisted surrender in 1939 (until he was overthrown) was that he hoped to hold out long enough for a second world war to save the Spanish Republic. But of course he didn't anticipate the Hitler-Stalin pact or the quick German conquest of France, which would obviously doom any slender hopes the Republic had of surviving.
It would get Spain directly involved in the war, and Spain would be an absolute drag on the Axis given the nation is even more wartorn than OTL and short on food and most resources. They'll get invaded at some point, probably related to Gibraltar and the need to keep the Mediterranean open.
After the war the Republic will be restored (or maybe there will be a referendum on it like in Italy) and Franco executed
After the war the Republic will be restored (or maybe there will be a referendum on it like in Italy) and Franco executed
I left this a bit open in the OP. As other points out, in the short run, a victory for Franco seems most likely, but if Hitler still attacks the Soviet Union (which he would most likely still do, given his madness), the allied forces would win the war also in this time line. In this case, bye bye Franco.
If the republic had survived until the German conquest of France, that would mean that it had survived until WW2, and most likely it would be dragged into the war.
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Why? Do you think the Soviets, with all the trouble they're facing, would insist on supporting the Republican faction? Couldn't Franco also join the allies at some point if he's coming on top?
Franco already received military help from Germany and Italy. If the civil war had lasted into WW2 (that is, the Republican government were still undefeated at the beginning of WW2), the presence of German and Italian forces helping Franco would imply that he would be their allied, and the Republican government would receive help from the west. Of course, the interesting question would be when is the POD? The earlier the POD, the more it might lead to butterflies that might influence the situation in other countries.
Well, if you buy the notion that by 1939 the Spanish Republic was a puppet of the USSR (which I think oversimplified) then presumably if Stalin after his pact with Hitler wanted the republic to stay neutral it would stay neutral...
Puppet of Spain? They did receive some help from the Russians, but that doesn´t make them a puppet. The republic would have welcomed whatever help it could have received, be it from countries like Britain and France, or from the Soviet Union. If the civil war had still been going on by the time WW2 broke out (I assume here that the war would not be butterflied), France and Britain would have had an interest in supporting the republic, as the Germans and Italians were supporting Franco. The republicans prime interest would be its own survival. Whether military help came from the Soviet Union or countries like Britain and France, would matter less. Actually, since transportation from the latter two would be easier than from the Soviet Union, help from the western allies would be preferable.
One gets the impression that the British and French governments would have sided openly with Franco if they weren't worried about their electorates.
However, if a few battles go the Republic's way and Franco still hasn't sealed the deal by September 1939, there are a number of implications.
1. This would likely be a negotiating point with the Nazi-Soviet Pact. The likeliest point of agreement would be that both sides withdraw support from their respective factions. Generally, Spain would be put in the Nazi sphere, but Stalin would likely extract the concession of no more German aid for Franco, and Hitler would agree since those resources would be needed for his war.
2. The British and the French continuing to let Germany ship aid to its allies in Spain would be a bit ridiculous once they are war with Germany.
3. Italy, as a neutral country and not a party to the Nazi-Soviet Pact, could continue to expand its role in Spain and probably would. But this might leave them less prepared to fight Britain.
4. Things get interesting after the fall of France. If Franco still hasn't defeated the Republic, his meeting with Hitler goes very differently. Hitler could offer help, including army and air force, to defeat the remaining republicans, and make it clear that he would do the job anyway if Franco refused the help. There would be no questions of concessions to Spain. Franco would not have to declare war on Britain, but would have to let the Nazis take Gibraltar. With Churchill in power, this likely results in a British declaration of war on Spain anyway as Franco doubtless new. Also, if Franco didn't agree he could be replaced by a real fascist dictator.
5. Increased Italian military efforts in Spain will probably butterfly the invasion of Greece. With Spain to play in, Mussolini doesn't need the prestige and even he should realize he can't do both. Probably by April 1941 the Italian and German forces are mopping up in Spain and securing Gibraltar. Unlike IOTL, the republican forces take to guerilla activity and this time there is the Special Operations Executive in London to support them.
6. The Nazis taking Gibraltar also starts having butterflies.
7. Iberia gets to be a theater of World War 2 if for some reason the Axis attacks Portugal. Churchill would probably love to see this happen and would do what he can to make it happen.
8. If Hitler avoids getting further involved in Iberia, such as attacking Portugal, he benefits on the whole by holding Gibraltar and no Balkan campaign, I'm not sure if enough to make a difference.
9. IOTL, the Spanish shipped minerals to Germany, troops to the Eastern Front, and provided help for the u-boats, so I don't know if Spain could really do more than this. Probably not enough to justify the increased economic assistance.
10. One way or another, the North African campaign is seriously downgraded. The logistics are still impossible for Rommel, but with no Mediterranean convoys, or worse, an active theater in Iberia, the British are only going to do a holding effort. This also means Rommel can't take supplies from his overexposed opponents, so that cancels out his own convoys getting through easier. The Afrika Korps may not even be formed in this timeline. Malta is toast however. Also there is not going to be Torch.
However, if a few battles go the Republic's way and Franco still hasn't sealed the deal by September 1939, there are a number of implications.
1. This would likely be a negotiating point with the Nazi-Soviet Pact. The likeliest point of agreement would be that both sides withdraw support from their respective factions. Generally, Spain would be put in the Nazi sphere, but Stalin would likely extract the concession of no more German aid for Franco, and Hitler would agree since those resources would be needed for his war.
2. The British and the French continuing to let Germany ship aid to its allies in Spain would be a bit ridiculous once they are war with Germany.
3. Italy, as a neutral country and not a party to the Nazi-Soviet Pact, could continue to expand its role in Spain and probably would. But this might leave them less prepared to fight Britain.
4. Things get interesting after the fall of France. If Franco still hasn't defeated the Republic, his meeting with Hitler goes very differently. Hitler could offer help, including army and air force, to defeat the remaining republicans, and make it clear that he would do the job anyway if Franco refused the help. There would be no questions of concessions to Spain. Franco would not have to declare war on Britain, but would have to let the Nazis take Gibraltar. With Churchill in power, this likely results in a British declaration of war on Spain anyway as Franco doubtless new. Also, if Franco didn't agree he could be replaced by a real fascist dictator.
5. Increased Italian military efforts in Spain will probably butterfly the invasion of Greece. With Spain to play in, Mussolini doesn't need the prestige and even he should realize he can't do both. Probably by April 1941 the Italian and German forces are mopping up in Spain and securing Gibraltar. Unlike IOTL, the republican forces take to guerilla activity and this time there is the Special Operations Executive in London to support them.
6. The Nazis taking Gibraltar also starts having butterflies.
7. Iberia gets to be a theater of World War 2 if for some reason the Axis attacks Portugal. Churchill would probably love to see this happen and would do what he can to make it happen.
8. If Hitler avoids getting further involved in Iberia, such as attacking Portugal, he benefits on the whole by holding Gibraltar and no Balkan campaign, I'm not sure if enough to make a difference.
9. IOTL, the Spanish shipped minerals to Germany, troops to the Eastern Front, and provided help for the u-boats, so I don't know if Spain could really do more than this. Probably not enough to justify the increased economic assistance.
10. One way or another, the North African campaign is seriously downgraded. The logistics are still impossible for Rommel, but with no Mediterranean convoys, or worse, an active theater in Iberia, the British are only going to do a holding effort. This also means Rommel can't take supplies from his overexposed opponents, so that cancels out his own convoys getting through easier. The Afrika Korps may not even be formed in this timeline. Malta is toast however. Also there is not going to be Torch.
ar-pharazon
Banned
I have thought of this and do think it interesting-the Spanish civil war continuing for at least part of WW2.
Maybe the republic does better middle and late in the war and its a continuing stalemate. More enthusiastic Soviet support perhaps? A chance for the red army and Air Force to get experience?
It would make allied or axis intervention in Spain all the more likely and I suspect you might even see both sides intervening to shore up their proxies.
I could also see fierce republican infighting-if the Soviets and WAllies are both supporting them then would be supporting different factions and parts of the government potentially leading to another civil war in an alt Cold War-democratic liberals and moderate socialists vs Soviet aligned communists?
I could see the Italians and Germans also competing for influence in the fascist government and perhaps supporting different paramilitaries.
If the British or Americans invade say from the Azores or Atlantic then it would divert forces needed for an invasion of France but the Francoist government would fall pretty quickly and any independent communist centers would be crushed as they were in Greece and Italy.
Maybe the republic does better middle and late in the war and its a continuing stalemate. More enthusiastic Soviet support perhaps? A chance for the red army and Air Force to get experience?
It would make allied or axis intervention in Spain all the more likely and I suspect you might even see both sides intervening to shore up their proxies.
I could also see fierce republican infighting-if the Soviets and WAllies are both supporting them then would be supporting different factions and parts of the government potentially leading to another civil war in an alt Cold War-democratic liberals and moderate socialists vs Soviet aligned communists?
I could see the Italians and Germans also competing for influence in the fascist government and perhaps supporting different paramilitaries.
If the British or Americans invade say from the Azores or Atlantic then it would divert forces needed for an invasion of France but the Francoist government would fall pretty quickly and any independent communist centers would be crushed as they were in Greece and Italy.