Let Them Pass

[Derek Pullem]

1 - still they have dealt with France in less than a month so they will be high on their own success and the temptation after this to redraw the map of Europe can be too strong for Willy and co. as frankly if they want there is nobody that can stop them. Frankly they can just adapt the Septemberprogramm and go with it. Oh they have more important thing than the Flanders, Belgium neutrality has become a joke, any british analyst will thought that Bruxelles capitulated only with the slightest German pressure when there were also France to consider, but now with Germany the only game in town there is no way that they resisist when Berlin demand something, hell they don't need military power just the economic one.

2 - the problem is that in this situation, Germany can get away with everything they want, France is down and the British don't have any mean to relief them, Serbia will be soon over and Russia is on the same road...the other big power in Europe are allied with her, so it's covered. Belgium will be a little nice boy and do what mama Germany say, there are already German troops there and anyone understand that the Belgian army is not a factor plus permitting the Germans passage had burn a lot of diplomatic bridge and being surrounded by now dominant reich will do the rest

You are drawing a Hitler or Napoleon on to Wilhelm.. There is no monomaniac tendency from Wilhelm - yes he would like to be a more absolute monarch but even then he recognises he is one of several monarch all with an equal right to exist. Not the supreme leader of Aryan civilization as Hitler saw himself. There is no divided France in front of him and a fig leaf of liberation philosophy to justify occupying swathes of France as Napoleon did to Germany.

After the long peace of the 19th century we have again what used to be called a "cabinet war" - a quick war fought to established diplomatic preeminence. Yes German has had to fight France twice in 50 years - this is normal for a European rivalry. Just look to GB vs France in the 18th century. Wilhelm knows full well he can't destroy every other power in Europe. There is no "war to end all wars" meme in existence yet. The peace treaty will seek to economically and diplomatically secure Germany as the preeminent power in Europe - at least for a decade or two. it won't be a naked power grab. Germany will be preparing for the next war as soon as this one ends.

 

[Riain]

I thought it was 2nd and 3rd armies surrounding Paris and Klucks 1st Army was on the front lines. 1st Army can't be everywhere.

Also 2nd Army's commander Von Bulow was a general staff officer whereas Kluck and Hausen were not and was given operational control of 1st and 3rd Armys during the first few weeks of the offensive. It would make sense if he was in charge of the siege of Paris and making these surrender offers as the senior officer.

 

[Monitor]

The French peace will be mostly economical. I can see the germans asking the Belgians if they would want land as a gift, but they would accept the Belgian decision. Now, to bind Belgium more to them, they would likely give them a small part of the reparations (to excuse any accidents that might have befell them because of the French declaration of war), which is a significantly less problematic proposition.

The Russian peace can easily be brutal, but will mostly create puppets and not add land to Germany. They already have enough problems with minorities and really do not want to gain the issues the Austrians have

 

[lukedalton]

You are drawing a Hitler or Napoleon on to Wilhelm.. There is no monomaniac tendency from Wilhelm - yes he would like to be a more absolute monarch but even then he recognises he is one of several monarch all with an equal right to exist. Not the supreme leader of Aryan civilization as Hitler saw himself. There is no divided France in front of him and a fig leaf of liberation philosophy to justify occupying swathes of France as Napoleon did to Germany.

I don't draw Hitler or Napoleon in Wilhem and frankly we are talking about the entire german and austro-hungarian enstablishment not only of Willy...but ehy, this is a blitzgrieg that basically humiliated their enemy that's at their mercy,a total success and we can say many many thing of the general leaderships of the time but not that they had a lot of long term thinking or even realistic thinking unless they are hit by reality in full force or we have forgot how the war has gone OTL?
Now in this scenario you think that there will be moderation? In this age? As the war lasted an year or two yes, as everyone will be tired enough that even getting something and end the massacre will have been accetable but with this flawless victory? Naked power grab will be the order of the day, because? Because there is nobody that can say anything about it and Germany can simply do as she please.

I expect the annexation of B-L and Luxemburg, demilitarization of the frontier and crippling reparation for France; Belgium will be puppetized, sure with nice word and compensation but everyone will know who really give order and with just that we can give a big goodbye kiss to any counter to Germany in the west. Russia, well Brest-Litivosk here we come and everybody say hello to Mitteleuropa and A-H will take control of Serbia/Montenegro and Albania. The other neutral will probably understand how the things will go from now on and will sign in peacefully.

In this situation, not even the British can keep Germany blockaded for an indefinite time, not with her in control of France and not with the war lost...as i doubt that the USA will accept this and even neutral like Spain and Italy will begin to act as German intermediary if necessary (if not for the money to kiss up the new boss)

 

[Derek Pullem]

I don't draw Hitler or Napoleon in Wilhem and frankly we are talking about the entire german and austro-hungarian enstablishment not only of Willy...but ehy, this is a blitzgrieg that basically humiliated their enemy that's at their mercy,a total success and we can say many many thing of the general leaderships of the time but not that they had a lot of long term thinking or even realistic thinking unless they are hit by reality in full force or we have forgot how the war has gone OTL?
Now in this scenario you think that there will be moderation? In this age? As the war lasted an year or two yes, as everyone will be tired enough that even getting something and end the massacre will have been accetable but with this flawless victory? Naked power grab will be the order of the day, because? Because there is nobody that can say anything about it and Germany can simply do as she please.

I expect the annexation of B-L and Luxemburg, demilitarization of the frontier and crippling reparation for France; Belgium will be puppetized, sure with nice word and compensation but everyone will know who really give order and with just that we can give a big goodbye kiss to any counter to Germany in the west. Russia, well Brest-Litivosk here we come and everybody say hello to Mitteleuropa and A-H will take control of Serbia/Montenegro and Albania. The other neutral will probably understand how the things will go from now on and will sign in peacefully.

In this situation, not even the British can keep Germany blockaded for an indefinite time, not with her in control of France and not with the war lost...as i doubt that the USA will accept this and even neutral like Spain and Italy will begin to act as German intermediary if necessary (if not for the money to kiss up the new boss)

No. Just no.

Russia currently occupies chunks of Galicia and A-H has been bounced out of Serbia. To get a Brest-Litovsk treaty in the East will probably require two years of war - and for what? More ethnic tension in A-H and the destabilising example of nationalistic pseudo independent statelets on Germany's Eastern border giving her issues with her minorities?

Whereas now Germany can kick France hard in the (economic) guts to make a two front war unlikely for the next two decades. And glower at Russia across the (pre-war) border in the East and wait for it to fall apart due to its inherent instabilities - there was a revolution after the Russo-Japanese War and it reasonable to expect a lot of discontent and maybe even revolution after this one. in which case Germany might step in to preserve the peace (at least in the Baltic states and Poland ). Meanwhile the Balkans become a German and A-H economic hegemony and the Berlin-Baghdad railway ties the Ottomans and their oil in to the net as well.

 

[Sarthak]

No. Just no.

Russia currently occupies chunks of Galicia and has been bounced out of Serbia. To get a Brest-Litovsk treaty in the East will probably require two years of war - and for what? More ethnic tension in A-H and the destabilising example of nationalistic pseudo independent statelets on Germany's Eastern border giving her issues with her minorities?

Whereas now Germany can kick France hard in the (economic) guts to make a two front war unlikely for the next two decades. And glower at Russia across the (pre-war) border in the East and wait for it to fall apart due to its inherent instabilities - there was a revolution after the Russo-Japanese War and it reasonable to expect a lot of discontent and maybe even revolution after this one. in which case Germany might step in to preserve the peace (at least in the Baltic states and Poland ). Meanwhile the Balkans become a German and A-H economic hegemony and the Berlin-Baghdad railway ties the Ottomans and their oil in to the net as well.

While i agree largely, just nitpicking the Russian part.
The start of the war saw massive patriotism on part of the Russian people towards the government and historically it was only the Bolsheviks who did not show such enthusiasm for war. Most of the political spectrum supported it as well. In the Russo-Japanese War, Russian land and influence in Manchuria was lost and Port Arthur was lost. However if the pre-war borders were kept in ITTL, the people won't really have a revolution. It would be Status Quo Antebellum which would be acceptable on the large part.....for everyone besides the Mensheviks and Bolsheviks, however those two wouldn't reach a majority until 1916 OTL, i doubt they will ITTL. The Russian Empire most likely in this ITTL is much better off.

Also the Ottoman Oil won't be beneficial until the 1940s at best, and unless the Ottomans annex Nejd, the amount of Iraqi oil they can pump out isn't going to reach the amounts we know today until the 1950s. Not exactly a viable investment until the late 1930s at least.

 

[Derek Pullem]

I can see where you are coming from but a quarter of a million casualties (killed, wounded and captured) by the end of September (less than a month of war) is twice that of the entire Russo-Japanese conflict. Land may not be lost but tens of thousands of Russian families will be seeing their sons lost in some unmarked grave in Prussia.

As for oil, without the break up of the Ottoman Empire and the associated delays caused by the war, the German backed Turkish Petroleum Company is very likely to be exporting significant quantities of oil from the Kirkuk area by 1930 at the latest. Even in OTL they managed 4 million tonnes a year pre WW2 - thats more than the entire annual German synthetic oil production in OTL WW2

 

[VoidStalker]

I don't draw Hitler or Napoleon in Wilhem and frankly we are talking about the entire german and austro-hungarian enstablishment not only of Willy...but ehy, this is a blitzgrieg that basically humiliated their enemy that's at their mercy,a total success and we can say many many thing of the general leaderships of the time but not that they had a lot of long term thinking or even realistic thinking unless they are hit by reality in full force or we have forgot how the war has gone OTL?
Now in this scenario you think that there will be moderation? In this age? As the war lasted an year or two yes, as everyone will be tired enough that even getting something and end the massacre will have been accetable but with this flawless victory? Naked power grab will be the order of the day, because? Because there is nobody that can say anything about it and Germany can simply do as she please.

I expect the annexation of B-L and Luxemburg, demilitarization of the frontier and crippling reparation for France; Belgium will be puppetized, sure with nice word and compensation but everyone will know who really give order and with just that we can give a big goodbye kiss to any counter to Germany in the west. Russia, well Brest-Litivosk here we come and everybody say hello to Mitteleuropa and A-H will take control of Serbia/Montenegro and Albania. The other neutral will probably understand how the things will go from now on and will sign in peacefully.

In this situation, not even the British can keep Germany blockaded for an indefinite time, not with her in control of France and not with the war lost...as i doubt that the USA will accept this and even neutral like Spain and Italy will begin to act as German intermediary if necessary (if not for the money to kiss up the new boss)

Saying we are going straight to Brest-Litivosk in the East is going a bit far as the initial terms offered to Kresenky were less, it was only after the rejection of those terms and the failed offensive did the terms expand to Brest-Litivosk.

At this point Russia is not a spent force so If we see peace in the coming weeks 1914 I expect Poland and maybe the Baltics to be separated from Russia. B-L and Luxemborg in the West plus reparations and colonial acquisitions and possibly asking the Belgians if they want any territory.

The biggest question is does France fight on into 1915 or do they fold now? At this point I don't think the Ottomans are even in the war.

 

[Azureora]

Unlike France, didn’t Germany want to attack Russia and dismember it before it properly industrialized? Status Quo accomplishes none of that, and pisses off everyone in Germany because they literally fought a war for nothing.

 

[ferdi254]

Maybe a bit too late but Russia could still propose status quo ante with the little clause that France will not get its money back.

Germany and Austria may demand acceptance to whatever they do to Serbia plus minor borde corrections, Russia agrees. The alternative would be to fight down Russia but everybody in Germany knows how that went for France 1812.

Easy for anybody to argue with hindsight how Russia could be beaten but the Germans would most likely more think about how the grand army came back from Russia and how many hundreds of thousand Germans died in 1812 in Russia.

France as I stated above. And that early in the war no one had had any actual plans what to achieve (underlining Wilhelm‘s incompetence in strategy) so a big happyness will mitigate matters.

 

[Derek Pullem]

Unlike France, didn’t Germany want to attack Russia and dismember it before it properly industrialized? Status Quo accomplishes none of that, and pisses off everyone in Germany because they literally fought a war for nothing.

That is true - but "victory disease" works here. "We beat them in a month this time and we'll beat them again if they come".

Brest-Litovsk is so extreme no one will be imagining it. And stripping Poland and the Baltics(maximum win case pre war) won't impact Russian industrialisation that much.

 

[Geon]

Chapter 31: Toward an Armistice​

September 1, 1914; Paris: At 2 p.m. a group of 3 French soldiers approach the German lines on the outskirts of Paris holding a white flag. They are quickly received and pass on a letter to be delivered to General von Kluck. The letter is from General Joffre and it requests a meeting between the two generals to discuss terms for the surrender of the city of Paris.

General von Kluck has already received another truce delegation from Lyons. At noon word arrived that President Poincare’ wishes to discuss terms of an armistice. Both letters will be hurriedly sent on to the German General Staff.

London: While the letters are arriving in von Kluck’s camp a telegram is sent by Poincare’ to Asquith. The telegram simply says that Poincare’ is asking for an armistice. This prompts an immediate emergency meeting of the War Cabinet.

If France decides to withdraw from the war England will be left in an awkward situation. With France out of the war England might still be able to fight in the “peripheries” but for all intents and purposes save for the naval war the fight would be done.

Hawks such as Churchill urge Asquith to “fight on”. But Asquith never really wanted to see this war come in the first place. And the acceptance of the war by the British public has been half-hearted at best. If enlistments are a guide to the public mood, they are far below expectations. And the recent losses of the BEF are not likely to improve the public’s view of the war.

Therefore at 7 p.m. that night Asquith sends a telegram via the Swedish embassy to Germany. Britain too is interested in an armistice.

 

[Jaenera Targaryen]

Well, if nothing else, and even if they don't know it, Albert's decision not only saved Belgium from destruction, but millions of lives from the hell of trench warfare.

 

[Derek Pullem]

Well, if nothing else, and even if they don't know it, Albert's decision not only saved Belgium from destruction, but millions of lives from the hell of trench warfare.

For now.

 

[VoidStalker]

A short war to be sure. Will be interesting to see how peace works out. Most of the countries that were in the War have not even joined at this point, right now we have what, Germany, AH, Russia, France, UK+dominions, Japan(or did they join later in 1914) and I assume Luxemborg. And the Death toll is going to be quite low, plus I don't see Russia fighting on if France and UK have asked for an armistice.

 

[Derek Pullem]

​

London: While the letters are arriving in von Kluck’s camp a telegram is sent by Poincare’ to Asquith. The telegram simply says that Poincare’ is asking for an armistice. This prompts an immediate emergency meeting of the War Cabinet.

You wonder what message he is sending to Russia? They could pre-empt the Masurian Lakes or Russia could be in a whole heap of pain in a weeks time.

 

[Skulduggery]

A short war to be sure. Will be interesting to see how peace works out. Most of the countries that were in the War have not even joined at this point, right now we have what, Germany, AH, Russia, France, UK+dominions, Japan(or did they join later in 1914) and I assume Luxemborg. And the Death toll is going to be quite low, plus I don't see Russia fighting on if France and UK have asked for an armistice.

especially not with the "terror of God" that Rasputin has put into the Czar...no way he's risking his, and his country's, future on his own

 

[Geon]

Just a head's up. This will probably be the last day by day entry for this TL. I'll be switching to a more general narrative covering a larger period of time for the rest of it. Also note a bit of foreshadowing here.

----------
Chapter 32: Surrender and Chivalry​

September 2, 1914; Rome: In the midst of the Entente planning an Armistice with the Central Powers there is a series of demonstrations in Rome and throughout Italy. Benito Mussolini’s editorial in Il Populo d’ Italia has kindled the fires of nationalism among many in Italy. Even as, plans are set in motion to begin talks for an armistice there are demonstrations throughout Italy demanding Italian entry into the war on the side of the Central Powers.

The demonstrations will have no effect on the Armistice talks. But they will effectively begin to undermine the present Italian government. Many will see the brief First World War as a missed opportunity and will blame the “timidity” of the present government.

One foreign correspondent watching the demonstration writes later; I could only wonder as I watched these demonstrations occurring even as the present war was winding down if I were not actually seeing the seeds planted for the war to come.

Fontainebleau: At 5 p.m. a car carrying General Joffre and his senior staff under a white flag enters the town of Fontainebleau, HQ of the German 1st army. As they enter the town and pass the German troops there the troops are ordered to their feet stand at attention and salute the passing vehicle and its German escort.

At von Kluck’s HQ General Joffre is ushered into the main office of General von Kluck. With Kluck are the generals of the 2nd and 3rd German Armies, Von Bulow and Hansen.

After preliminary greetings General Joffre is invited to look at the terms for the surrender of Paris. They are surprisingly reasonable.

• All French troops will immediately evacuate the city of Paris. They will not be taken prisoner and may keep their small arms. But all artillery pieces must remain in the city.
• The French constabulary of Paris shall be responsible for maintaining order during the occupation of Paris by the German Imperial Army.
• Trains carrying non-military supplies of food and medical supplies shall be allowed to enter Paris, subject to search by German troops before entering and during distribution.
• As in Belgium the Imperial German Army pledges to conduct itself with the utmost propriety. Any violation of French property or harassment of French citizens shall fully be punished of German military regulations. Likewise, any harassment of German troops by French civilians shall also be dealt with appropriately according to German military regulations.
• The landmarks of the city of Paris shall have their safety guaranteed by the Imperial German Army.
• The city of Paris shall remain under German occupation until a satisfactory Armistice has been negotiated.

Joffre is surprised by the mildness of the surrender terms. He had feared he would be in a prisoner of war camp by the end of the day. After several minutes of studying the terms he agrees and signs the formal surrender of Paris. His troops will evacuate the city beginning tomorrow morning at 10 a.m.

As the negotiations end and Joffre prepares to leave von Bulow cannot help but approach the man. As von Bulow will write later, I saw in the face of the General a look of utter despair mixed with relief. (from Reflections on the First European War; Karl Wilhelm Paul von Bulow, 1918)

As he comes near Joffre turns and von Bulow offers his hand. Joffre shakes von Bulow’s hand as von Bulow says in a voice so no one else can hear. “We are both military men you and me. We know how the fortunes of war may turn from one day to the next even with the finest planning. Who knows, if the Belgians had not granted us access right now, we might still be fighting and countless brave men French and German would be dying? War is a fickle thing my friend. Today we march into Paris. But, it could have just as easily been you marching into Berlin.”

Joffre nods. He is even able to smile slightly as he leaves the meeting to return to Paris and prepare his men to march out of the city. Joffre will write later. “I came expecting humiliation, imprisonment, and a vengeful foe. I left able to keep a part of my dignity, my freedom, and discovering that vengeful foe could be a chivalrous warrior.” (from Personal Memoirs; General Joseph Joffre, 1920)

 

[Coulsdon Eagle]

Mitteleuropa here we come.

Honestly i seriously doubt that after a such quick victory, anyone in Germany will limit themselfs to some bit (even if important) and go home as nothing happened; between the nationalistic jingoism and the frenzy of an easy victory plus the example of the last time they give France a lenient peace.
At the moment Germany is on the crisp of getting his place on the sun and becoming the dominant nation in the continet, so i doubt that they will not use this occasion for gutting any possible continental rival.

Belgium will probably get some piece of French land...even if they don't want as frankly their opinion doesn't matter and Germany in exchange will get some base there to protect the little brave nation from the British again Belgium opinion is irrilevant, they know that by now Germany can simply do what they want and there is no help coming from anywhere.

Not necessarily. Germany did not enter the war with the aim of aggrandizement. You could argue the French did (seize A-L) but in fact it was to protect their security by not allowing their ally Russia from being detached from their treaty and defeated in a 2-on-1 conflict.

On paper Germany was supporting Austria Hungary's "right" to intervene in Serbia. I'm not aware of any serious war aims in 1914 Berlin, Vienna or St. Petersburg that involved seizure of another great power's territory. Some may have thought it but pretty certain no-one declared war for that reason.

If it is a short, sharp war, then Germany could play the diplomatic card with a white peace except that the Habsburgs have a free rein in Belgrade.

Possible that all parties might just stop without thoughts of revenge later, no property having swapped hands. Wilhelm may wake up that morning as the Great Peacemaker and not the Supreme Warlord.

Just an idle thought... The masses may not have gone for it in 1914, but if they knew what was coming...

 

[duckie]

That is true - but "victory disease" works here. "We beat them in a month this time and we'll beat them again if they come".

Brest-Litovsk is so extreme no one will be imagining it. And stripping Poland and the Baltics(maximum win case pre war) won't impact Russian industrialisation that much.

I don't think that "Victory Disease" will be an problem, We are talking about the German General Staff. The logistic people will also have a word about the reality of an modern war (Ammo comsumption / resupply issues etc.). Also they have now reports how many casulties the French suffered in the counter attacks. Also how many casulties does the german army have