You’re welcome. I’ve got to say though, this discussion has been very stimulating to me, but I think it’s bungled up the thread enough
. I doubt that most other posters would enjoy seeing such a long back-and-forth in the thread as much as I.
.
Fair comment. I'll park most of this discussion (with a few minor exceptions I've taken up below since I think that they are of more general interest) for a PM discussion. That won't be particularly soon; I've been rather flat out with life things the last few weeks (even ITWP has seen only a couple of sporadic updates).
It’s an elephant in the room I’ve been avoiding thus far
. But yes, rural industry was an important prelude to the Industrial Revolution, and a key instigator of overall economic growth, without which the Industrial Revolution would not have even happened.
What happens with the Hunter (or at least the broad outline) will probably be known after at most half a dozen more updates. It's just that with most of my writing time spent on ITWP (and less writing time), that may take a while. Without wanting to give too much away, I can say that the Hunter doesn't wreck everything. Whether in conquest or failure, he has never been aiming for destruction for the sake of it. Which is not to say that some things can't be destroyed by accident or resistance, but he won't be imposing a Carthaginian peace on his enemies.
The problem with Aotearoa then would be whether they can keep up production to a degree which would bear a growing industry in Aururia? Of course, the Nuttana hold influence there, but so do the French.
I'm mostly commenting on the foreign policy aspects here (leaving the rest to any future PM discussions). Aotearoa is a potentially great source of raw materials such as New Zealand flax and other suitable production. NZ flax grows abundantly, and while it has plenty of domestic uses (their main fibre for clothing, amongst much else), there's enough for export. In the past their exports were limited by their own relatively small shipping, and their small export markets. With the broader world opened up, their production potential is huge.
It's unlikely that Aotearoa will ever be fully united - not until a nineteenth-century level of technology, at least - and so there will be plenty of scope for different powers to play for influence and raw material production. Even if the Nuttana have access to the raw material export production of, say, a third of Aotearoa, that would be an order of magnitude higher than anything they would be likely to be able to set up in Patagonia. At least for a while. So Aotearoa will continue to be one of their prime areas for seeking semi-colonial influence.
To specify, what you describe as silk mechanization leading to an industrial revolution is not what an industrial revolution is. An industrial revolution is a movement operationalised in terms of macro-inventions and micro-inventions. A movement, in essence, of technological innovation revolutionizing several industries with macro-inventions, with a series of micro-inventions representing trends in technological innovation, leading to the development of an "engineering industry".
A full-scale industrial revolution would naturally spread to encompass more than just one industry segment, sure. Silk mechanisation alone does not an industrial revolution make. But things have to start somewhere. In OTL, it was essentially the shift of textile production from small-scale cottage industries to a factory system. Once the idea of a factory system is there, and the associated techniques, it can spread to all sorts of other areas, but textiles appears to be one of the main ways of getting things started. (With one exception that I'll take up via PM, it's a bit distracting here).
My view is that in the right circumstances, any of several textiles would be possible to get things started. Cotton offered the highest rates of return and price elasticity of demand, and also had certain other peculiarities within England in terms of the laws for the forms in which it could be imported, which helped. But I believe that other fibres, in the right circumstances, could also lead to the virtuous circle of increasing returns which made it viable to convert to a factory system. Not as
fast as cotton, but fast enough.
Wool and silk both have potential to do so. (Flax/linen, less so, but not impossible). Even in OTL, things came awfully close to having the full factory system with silk in England before cotton textiles really took off in factories. (The Derby silk mill is arguably using the factory system already).
That's the OTL definition, certainly. (Or the mainstream one, at least.)
The shortcoming of silk in itself is, as I said before, the price elasticity of demand. More price-responsive markets sustain the engineering industry (and thus sustain an industrial revolution). Compared to cotton, silk was quite small. It did manage to spawn some marvelous machines of its own, the Jacquard loom and the Vaucanson loom for example, which, unlike machines made for the cotton industry, never revolutionized much at all. Silk as an industry never had the same level of growth that cotton did, silk knitting was simply not much of a global industry.
The question I'm looking at is not whether silk could have as good a level of growth as cotton; it couldn't. I'm looking at whether, in the right circumstances, it was feasible for it to become the driving part of an indigenous industrial revolution that proceeded without external inspiration. There needs to be several factors coming together, but some of the various examples in OTL (the Derby Silk Mill, the French silk industry, etc) suggest to me that it's possible to have something like that develop to the point where it could be argued ATL (with a straight face) to be an example of an industrial revolution, or more precisely where one started.
So that leaves more room for pastoralism to grow rather than agriculture. I think too that hunter-gatherers could evolve into pastoralist nomads, and they would have the time. It’d probably be for centuries that inland Aururians would be free of outside influence, even from the Aururian civilizations, let alone Europeans. The demographic changes would be immense, one group, whichever it is, successfully become pastoralists might end up expanding where possible, and either absorb hunter-gathers or push them aside entirely. If the nomadic pastoralists pick up iron-working then that would give them an even greater technological advantage.
Pastoralism is only really possible where there's enough water for the herds. Which leads to the problems of drought. Much of Aururia is far too dry and subject to year-long droughts which will whack the populations of both the herds and the herders. The Yalatji/Butjupa survive this via artesian water, and because they are in the generally higher rainfall areas.
Camels are an exception, but I don't know if a pastoralist society is possible based on camels alone. Cattle are generally better, since they give milk as well as meat.
So this would essentially mean pastoralism around the wetter fringes: as you noted, the Top End (Arnhem Land) and to a lesser degree the Kimberleys (northwestern WA).
Cattle-based pastoralism would be limited to good grazing lands, and would, like for Camel-based pastoralism, should have plenty of time to evolve on its own. I just took a quick look at an Australian biome map and it seems that the rangelands of the Northern Territory and Northern Western Australia seem the obvious place where cattle-based pastoralism would develop considering that that’s where cattle would’ve first started spreading (from the Portuguese, IIRC? Even if the Yalatji-Butjupa are more adamant at curtailing the spread of feral herds). Where and when would you say cattle herds could spread far enough for hunter-gatherers to develop pastoralism?
The situation with the Yalatji-Butjupa is that they collect any feral herds and use them themselves. It's not that they don't are trying to prevent cattle spreading, just that they see feral cattle as a cheap way to boost their herds.
It's hard to say exactly how fast cattle would spread along the Top End, but maybe 1750-1780 or so.
The feral camel distribution in Australia is pretty much most dense in the red heart.
Feral camels are densest there because that's where they were released first, and until relatively recent culling, that's where they were allowed to spread from.
Camel pastoralism in the Sahara is centered in areas where rainfall is moderate (in terms of the Sahara, of course), such as the areas of the Tuareg. Potential expansion of camel-herding through larger areas of the outback is possible, but I think the center for camel pastoralism might be Central Australia. Another reason hunter-gatherers might take up the camels is the devastation camels bring upon traditional food sources.
Certainly drier and worse-off regions have been home to some camel herding, like the Gobi.
Camels can certainly survive in the outback. The harder question to answer is whether the droughts are bad enough to stop a pastoralist culture developing. Good years would be very good, but bad years could lead to collapses in population of both camel herds and herders.
In OTL, in the Gobi, even camels need to drink. Admittedly there they do it for much of the year by eating snow instead, but at least that's snow which is there predictably for years.
What I'd like to work out is whether the Gobi's rainfall (though low) is better distributed from year to year. What average rainfall charts of Australia tend not to show is how much the rainfall varies from year to year. An average rainfall of 250mm per year doesn't sound too bad until you realise that it might be 1250 mm one year, dumped in a couple of storms, and then 0mm for the next four years.
I don't know whether the Gobi is the same, or if the rainfall is more regular.
Would the possible spread of nomads to places where deposits are help or hinder efforts of outsiders to either discover or exploit said deposits? When it comes to those like Argyle, it would require some technology to mine which I don’t think the nomads would have, and even if the place is surveyed, I don’t think the people who live there would want outsiders coming in to set up operations without a fight.
I'd say that on the whole nomads would make things worse. Nomads would have more inclination to drive out any visitors, since nomads have historically tended to look down on settled people. Even setting that aside, though, discovering and exploiting the northern resources (gold, diamonds etc) probably requires at least a nineteenth if not twentieth century level of technology. Especially large-scale engineering.
Speaking of charcoal, how good are wattles for charcoal production? Could this lead to Iberia, Sicily, or North Africa getting more of an industrial base?
Wattles do produce wood, but they're not the best for the scale of charcoal production which would be needed to allow an industrial base in Sicily or North Africa. Some of the fast-growing eucalypts are better, since they just produce much more timber.
Wattles are important because it means there's enough wood available for cooking and food preservation, which means that smoking meat is viable, and which has its implications for cuisine. (One of the posts I'm working on will develop that topic further.)
Could this lead to a Mfecane-type situation in any part of Aururia, or
will this be more of a "peaceful" expansion and displacement of various groups?
The closest comparison to the Mfecane would probably the Hunter's rise, more than anything else. For other circumstances, such as say the Kiyungu expansion along the Queensland coast, it's more steady displacement than the sort of spread of warfare and rapid disruption which created the Mfecane.
I'm not sure how much time has passed TL wise since the last time I asked about this, but how are things going in *Indonesia these days? I gather that the superior spices from Aururia have done a number on the economies up there, and given the greater wealth of VOC has colonisation there gone faster? Actually more generally what sort of date are we up to in the world outside Aururia?
In general terms, the timeline is up to about 1710-1720. I haven't covered *Indonesia or much of the rest of the world in any detail for a while, because in Act II I'm deliberately going for an Aururian focus with the rest of the world only being seen as Aururia sees it: i.e. through occasional travellers reports and rumours.
In very general terms, in *Indonesia the greater wealth flowing into the European trading companies (i.e. the VOC and a couple of smaller outliers) has seen more colonial influence and in some cases direct conquest than at the same stage as in OTL.
The other effect is that competition from Aururian spices, specifically sweet peppers, has killed much of the export market for true peppers. (More on this below). This has consequences for the pepper-growing regions of Indonesia. On the one hand loss of export income and ability to trade for weapons, but on the other hand less motivation for the VOC to expand into those areas too.
There are other effects on the local societies too, but that would need to wait until I'm able to find the time to research and write an instalment on Indonesia (unless someone with a greater knowledge of Indonesia in this era could assist).
Superior spices? Aururian spices fill a different range of tastes than Moluccan ones, and it's all up to a matter of taste which flavors are better, so you can't really judge them in terms of relative quality. The superiority within a wide variety of spices is that you can meet the precise preferences of more people, and thus secure more reliable sales.
I was generalising, but the Aururian Sweet Pepper is simply a stronger spice than ordinary Black Pepper, far and away one of the most important spices out of Indonesia. It's easier to transport it to Europe as the same quantity is worth more. Of course this doesn't mean the total end to the spice trade elsewhere, but it would cause a very noticeable shift in relative wealth.
I've eaten them before since they will grow in the bay area and someone or some organization will plant them out one in a blue moon. They aren't like piper spp. in taste really, they have the kick but not the same pungency with a different burn and minor tingle and a hint of sweetness along with myrtle like undertone.
It's unique enough to have it stand out on its own, but I could see it being perceived as an 'inferior' pepper to buyers much like the wonderful tasting Grain of Paradise being perceived as a cheap black pepper substitute.
I personally prefer the Aururian pepper (at least Tasmannia lanceolata, I've never had any other ones) to regular pepper. But cuisine seems to be a very variable thing as to how it evolved, so I see no reason why it couldn't find plenty of uses in any culture's cuisine. I know from experience you can make most any recipe better/more unique if you add Aururian pepper to it.
An interesting discussion of alternate cuisine.
It's hard to predict everything about how tastes for alternate spices will go. As Revachah noted, grains of paradise were popular in Europe for a while (at times as much or more so than pepper), but then interest waned for a variety of factors. They came to be seen first as a cheaper pepper substitute, then mostly for medicinal uses, then mostly not used at all.
However, generalising from the biggest other example of introduction of new spices that we know of (the Americas), it's possible to say that there are times when new spices simply supplement existing spices, and times when they
replace existing spices.
Despite contributing many crops to world cuisine, the Americas did not actually introduce many new spices for export. But they had a few, and a couple of examples are interesting. Vanilla simply became an (expensive) new flavouring which was added to cuisine. Chilli peppers, on the other hand, spread and also killed an existing spice.
Long peppers (which have been mentioned before in LoRaG, though a while ago) were an important spice pre-1492, being hotter than regular peppers. Chilli peppers more or less killed their export market to Europe, and to a lesser degree some other regions.
Of course, this comparison is in terms of export markets. In the areas around where the spices are actually grown, it's a different story. Long peppers are still used in Indian, Indonesian and Malaysian cuisine (amongst several other places). But they are an extremely minor part of the cuisine of Europe, which was once a major export market.
So for the purposes of this TL, I've gone with the assumption that sweet peppers will displace most (though not all) of the export market for true peppers, at least in terms of Europe and European colonies in the Americas. In *Indonesia and India, they will be a supplement to the cuisine, not a replacement for existing peppers. (I'm not sure how this will play out in other areas such as China and Japan).
All of those regions are right out for an industrial revolution, but when industrialization does reach there it would be interesting to see them adopting Aururian charcoal production technology.
The best candidate seems to be Sicily, as Jared noted, it had an agricultural revolution. Unlike Spain, Sicily doesn't have much mineral coal. Industrialization would most likely take a while to reach there, however.
I don't see Sicily having an indigenous industrial revolution, but it may be an early adopter.
I'd assume wattles would cause an agricultural revolution wherever they were imported, and they'd be taken up faster than potatoes since they wouldn't be as "weird" to European sensibilities. Since wattles OTL are invasive in Mediterranean climates, I'd be guessing the whole population of that area will increase by quite a bit.
The only real limitation on wattles is that their seeds are quite oily. This may be less appealing to some cultures. Southern Portugal is an exception, since their cusine already tends to the oily, and they will probably be the first European adopters of wattles.
Red yams help there too; they take longer to be adopted in some cultures than wattles, but will cause an even greater increase in population once adopted.
Spain has coal in Asturias and Léon, and will no doubt see its population recover from the Aururian plagues faster because of the favourable conditions for Aururian crops. Could Spain be one of the early places industrialisation spreads to?
For similar reasons to what Cochlea pointed out, I'd say not the earliest place. Institutions need to change too, not just crops. There is potential for greater industrialisation than in OTL, but probably not extremely early industrialisation.