Keynes' Cruisers Volume 2

[formion]

ITTL I seem to recall that Fester has the BP4Y Privateer MPA varient of the VLR Liberator already in serial production (OTL reached squadron service in 1944)

Indeed. These Liberators had reduced defensive armament and half the payload. So they are closer to VLR Liberators than to Privateers. Since we have seen them produced in (comparatively) great numbers and with specifications that made them unsuitable for bombing, it makes sense that they see very early introduction to Coastal Command squadrons. Bomber Command could not have claimed these aircraft at all. So, the needed number to close the Atlantic Gap, seems to be in place by Q3 1941, instead of Q2 1943.

But it was only a single 'plank' of the total aligning of elements that OTL won the battle in May 1943

Increased numbers of better escort vessels
Improvements of ASW weapons and methods of attack
Introduction of Escort Carriers
Application of computers to improve code breaking efforts
Generally improved intellegence apparatus and making use of same
Maturing of USN and RCN escort groups to near peer RN standards

Regarding CVEs, a significant butterfly in the timeline is the survival of HMS Audacity. Who knows how many merchantmen were saved because an Audacity stringbag was patroling around a convoy? Furthermore, the utility of escort carriers would have been demonstrated even more profoundly with Audacity participating in more convoys.

Another detail, is the survival of more RN CVs. While these CVs wouldn't cover regular cross-atlantic convoys ( perhaps they cover a few important arctic ones), just having more of them reduces the need to use CVEs in operations in the Mediterranean, as happened during Torch. Also, it seems that HMS Avenger was spared during Torch. In that case, there are 2 OTL CVEs more than OTL.

Lastly, we saw Bearn getting a refit in New Orleans (Septermber 1942). I m not sure how long it would take. Bearn would make an ideal aircraft transport and thus frees a CVE for escort duty.

I am not sure if and how much earlier the jeep carrier influx happens. I think there are indications for a rather earlier one, but I cannot recall specific posts.

 

[Driftless]

What are the comparative merchant shipping losses in this universe vs historic? I believe they are less, but by how much on a percentage basis? That should also mean that there would be a slow build up of various supplies getting through to the British Isles. So, if all of those suppositions are partly true, even a big push from the Wolfpacks should be less catastrophic? Costly and harrowing for all involved, but less of an existential threat.

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

Edit: As for what the Uboats do...what choice do they have - they have to keep going to their deaths fighting the convoys - failure to stop them ends in defeat for Germany.

As opposed to sinking the odd merchant ship, which still results in defeat for Germany.

 

[sloreck]

If the number of merchant sinkings is significantly down from the same time OTL, this has major implications for amphibious operations. Construction efforts devoted to replacing merchants can be used for amphibious transports as well as assigning Liberty ships to supply shipping in the Pacific. Similarly earlier escort carriers, as well as more RN fleet carriers still afloat, allows CVE/CVL type to be used for aircraft transport and amphibious support operations particularly in the Pacific. While you still need larger carriers for some assaults and often for the initial assault in some cases, if there is not a significant threat from IJN carriers or land based aviation, CVE/CVL types can provide air support for island hopping quite nicely. Every merchant not sunk is one that does not need to be replaced and therefore construction materials and labor that can go to building amphibious directed shipping. The tonnage of an LST (the ship not the load) was roughly half of that of the standard Liberty ship, with the differences in equipment needs and so forth this means you might expect to be able to get 1.5 LSTs for every Liberty you don't need to build as replacements for sunken merchants...

 

[fester]

Orleans, France March 16, 1943


Another pistol shot rang out. Another body slumped to the ground. Another French spy was marched into the courtyard.


The German counterintelligence officer barely noticed the background noise. He licked his fingers before he pulled another file out of the cabinet. The Paris ring investigation was closed. A few loose ends had to be left hanging. There had been a leak somewhere in the transportation divisions but that had been a dead end. There were fifteen suspects who were officially authorized to have the information that had been recovered, and then once the organization had been placed under surveillance, another four or five dozen people including some French clerical staff would have had access to the information that had been discovered on the French courier. There was another leak somewhere in inland waterway transportation and electricity generation sections that he could not discover the leaker either. Re-assignments and tighter operational procedures would probably close the information holes.


He would have preferred a watch and wait operation to roll up the entire ring. But the border guards had screwed up the initiation, so some of the ring had been able to go to ground. It was a reasonably well compartmentalized group. He knew he got the middle layer of transport and organization as well as a few low level direct informants and assets. They were all valuable spies for the French Resistance and their British controllers but he had hit brick walls going up the chain as well as down some limbs.


By mid-afternoon, the Farmer Ring had been eliminated. He now had to work on another set of leaks that seemed to be coming out of Loire Valley barge crews.

 

[fester]

What are the comparative merchant shipping losses in this universe vs historic? I believe they are less, but by how much on a percentage basis? That should also mean that there would be a slow build up of various supplies getting through to the British Isles. So, if all of those suppositions are partly true, even a big push from the Wolfpacks should be less catastrophic? Costly and harrowing for all involved, but less of an existential threat.

Globally, Allied shipping losses are probably running 15% to 20% better than OTL. In the Mediterranean, far ahead, in SE Asia, far ahead as there were far fewer ships captured in the first two months of the war and the Japanese bombers could not run wild. Arctic convoys are running 10% ahead, and North Atlantic is running 12-15% ahead.

 

[Driftless]

Globally, Allied shipping losses are probably running 15% to 20% better than OTL. In the Mediterranean, far ahead, in SE Asia, far ahead as there were far fewer ships captured in the first two months of the war and the Japanese bombers could not run wild. Arctic convoys are running 10% ahead, and North Atlantic is running 12-15% ahead.

That difference would have a huge impact, going along with my note of more supplies getting through earlier being useful and Slorek's comments on the double impact on shipbuilding: less need for replacement of merchants means other ships (LST and ???) can be built

 

[fester]

Southern Russia March 17, 1943

The submachine gunner switched magazines. Bullets whizzed by him. One of the grenadiers threw another grenade in the general direction of the rifle shots that sought him out. A moment later, he squeezed the trigger and another half a dozen 9 millimeter rounds slammed into sandbags. One struck the barrel of a rifle dinging and damaging it. Even as the metal ting reverberated, the grenade exploded and the assault squad moved forward. Two Soviet soldiers had been wounded, another four were standing up and firing at the rapidly sprinting Germans. Some had bayonets levelled, while he and another man both emptied their magazines again. One defender was hit, another two went to find cover, no choice was a good choice.


Another grenade exploded, and the German squad was safe so far. Five men jumped into the hasty defensive position. Rifle butts and bayonets were being swung strongly and the attackers used their numbers to find exposed flanks. A few pistol shots rang out and then the submachine gunners and follow-on wave with shotguns cleared. Two wounded German soldiers were quickly bandaged up and sent to the rear. There were no prisoners as more than a panzer regiment pressed forward along the road that was now open for another five miles.

 

[vl100butch]

That difference would have a huge impact, going along with my note of more supplies getting through earlier being useful and Slorek's comments on the double impact on shipbuilding: less need for replacement of merchants means other ships (LST and ???) can be built

AND the impact on escort production...how would this impact the Destroyer Escort program and which classes would actually be built?

Fester, a couple of questions when you have some time to contemplate...the Altoona class escorts. were they adopted as the standard ASW escort ITL? Does the RN get some of these through Lend Lease thereby reducing the need for corvettes and sloops? I'm having a bit of a senior moment (and probably jumping back and forth between you, Zheng, and galveston bay) but did the destroyers for bases deal go down ITL?

 

[fester]

AND the impact on escort production...how would this impact the Destroyer Escort program and which classes would actually be built?

Fester, a couple of questions when you have some time to contemplate...the Altoona class escorts. were they adopted as the standard ASW escort ITL? Does the RN get some of these through Lend Lease thereby reducing the need for corvettes and sloops? I'm having a bit of a senior moment (and probably jumping back and forth between you, Zheng, and galveston bay) but did the destroyers for bases deal go down ITL?

Destroyers for Bases went down fundamentally the same as it did OTL but with the US 4 Stackers being in better material shape.

Altoonas are the basis for the British Destroyer Escort Order which will become the Captain class frigate. The USN has ordered more of the Altoonas as well as some of the original design DEs for industrial constraint optimization.

As I've hinted, the better naval war is having some impact on escort allocation and construction priorities. I have not worked out the entire implications but some ships ordered OTL will never be completed TTL (some won't ever be laid down). Black Swans, Hunts, and River classes probably won't be significantly changed. Modified Flowers and Loch/Bay classes will see fewer ships built.

 

[Crowbar Six]

Orleans, France March 16, 1943


Another pistol shot rang out. Another body slumped to the ground. Another French spy was marched into the courtyard.


The German counterintelligence officer barely noticed the background noise. He licked his fingers before he pulled another file out of the cabinet. The Paris ring investigation was closed. A few loose ends had to be left hanging. There had been a leak somewhere in the transportation divisions but that had been a dead end. There were fifteen suspects who were officially authorized to have the information that had been recovered, and then once the organization had been placed under surveillance, another four or five dozen people including some French clerical staff would have had access to the information that had been discovered on the French courier. There was another leak somewhere in inland waterway transportation and electricity generation sections that he could not discover the leaker either. Re-assignments and tighter operational procedures would probably close the information holes.


He would have preferred a watch and wait operation to roll up the entire ring. But the border guards had screwed up the initiation, so some of the ring had been able to go to ground. It was a reasonably well compartmentalized group. He knew he got the middle layer of transport and organization as well as a few low level direct informants and assets. They were all valuable spies for the French Resistance and their British controllers but he had hit brick walls going up the chain as well as down some limbs.


By mid-afternoon, the Farmer Ring had been eliminated. He now had to work on another set of leaks that seemed to be coming out of Loire Valley barge crews.

She made it out alive??

 

[fester]

She made it out alive??

Anna Marie is one of the loose ends that he had to be content to leave hanging. The information distribution layer had been destroyed and there were too many potential leakers in the railroad office to chase down with limited resources for limited gain.

She got lucky as hell.

 

[Driftless]

Anna Marie is one of the loose ends that he had to be content to leave hanging. The information distribution layer had been destroyed and there were too many potential leakers in the railroad office to chase down with limited resources for limited gain.

She got lucky as hell.

She may still have some serious "splainin" to do if her brother survives long enough to come home.

 

[fester]

She may still have some serious "splainin" to do if her brother survives long enough to come home.

Oh definitely, there will be family drama conditional on mutual survival.

 

[fester]

North Atlantic March 17, 1943


HMCS Trillium sped back up. The ASDIC operator lost contact with a probable submarine. Two dozen depth charges had kept the contact down for the last four hours of darkness. The convoy had not been attacked from this quarter. Three ships were torpedoed overnight. Two were already written off, and the last one was barely able to keep pace with the other slow ships. The escorts had run down the torpedo tracks of the last attack and between depth charging and a Hedgehog attack, they had claimed a kill. Two German sailors were taken prisoner.

The North Atlantic sun was rising. The corvette was rolling worse than the town drunk after payday as waves were picking up. A storm had come off the New England coast and it was beginning to stir up trouble even thousands of miles away. The small warship had twenty miles to run before she could take the backside of the convoy. The escort force would be down a ship for another three hours.

By the time the corvette resumed her station as the last escort on the port side of the convoy, a Labrador based Privateer had flown over her. The big lumbering patrol bomber waggled its wings. It was fast and it was light. All depth charges had been dropped on an unsuspecting surfaced U-boat fifty five miles in front of the convoy. The aircraft was claiming a clean kill. A replacement for the bomber was already airborne and would be overhead after lunch.

Closer to the convoy, a pair of Swordfish and a single rocket armed Martlet fluttered and flittered around the path of advance. HMS Biter was in the center column. She was protected by four rows of merchant ships on each side of her and several ships in front and astern of her. The reinforcements had arrived just before dawn. One Swordfish had already dropped on a waiting submarine. HMS Pathfinder sat atop of the contact while the frigate Berry was setting up another attack.

The convoy continued to steam east north east at a steady eight knots. Flags to zig and zag were sent out randomly. The convoy commander had decided that speed was more important than unpredictability so instead of a turn several times an hour, he kept the convoy closer to its base course with only some variation every hour or so. There were now enough escorts to battle back against any prowling seawolves.


Night was getting close before the next contact. A small 2,500 ton Panamanian tramp freighter blew up. Two destroyers and a corvette sent over one hundred depth charges into the sea before U-638 was crushed by the immense pressure of the lightless water. The battered boat exploded when she went past five hundred feet deep. No one survived. The crew died quickly.


The convoy continued east as the escorts prepared to pass through another patrol and attack line during the night.

 

[Logan2879]

Hello @fester its been months since I posted here. What a timeline you have here. The battle of Makassar Strait was really good to bad USS South Dakota was scuttled but now the Iowa class would enter and deal the Yamato class. I would have prefer Admiral Harlsey and not Fletcher but well that was your decision. The Russian front is doing good for the German but I feel things are going to go backwards. Anne Marie ha survived so far and it looks like she will make it out of the war. The allies army are doing good even the french. A early Dragoon could happen if you have that in mind. A while back (I think a year or more) I asked about someone who is famous and that she died in the concentration camps: Anne Franke. What happen in the Netherland, is she involved or is she going to die the same way in the real time. Other then that you have a really great timeline here and I am voting again.

Sincerly

ALEX ROMERO HERNÁNDEZ

 

[mudhead]

Southern Russia March 17, 1943


...One of the grenediers through another grenade in the general direction of the rifle shots that sought him out. A moment later, he squeezed the trigger and sent another half a dozen 9 millimeter rounds slammed into sandbags...

...There were no prisoners as more than panzer regiment pressed forward along the road that was now open for another five miles...

Typos

The small warship had twenty miles to run before she could take the backside of the convoy. The escort force would be down a ship for another three hours.

This was a continuing problem with corvettes - when prosecuting a contact, or rescuing survivors, they were too slow to quickly catch up with their convoys (some never did).

 

[Cryhavoc101]

As opposed to sinking the odd merchant ship, which still results in defeat for Germany.

Same is true of fighting and killing Russians - still resutls in defeat for Germany

 

[Crowbar Six]

Hello @fester its been months since I posted here. What a timeline you have here. The battle of Makassar Strait was really good to bad USS South Dakota was scuttled but now the Iowa class would enter and deal the Yamato class. I would have prefer Admiral Harlsey and not Fletcher but well that was your decision. The Russian front is doing good for the German but I feel things are going to go backwards. Anne Marie ha survived so far and it looks like she will make it out of the war. The allies army are doing good even the french. A early Dragoon could happen if you have that in mind. A while back (I think a year or more) I asked about someone who is famous and that she died in the concentration camps: Anne Franke. What happen in the Netherland, is she involved or is she going to die the same way in the real time. Other then that you have a really great timeline here and I am voting again.

Sincerly

ALEX ROMERO HERNÁNDEZ

I suspect that if Fester wants to be ironic Anne Marie would find herself getting shot by the Nazi's in retaliation for resistance activity.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

Looks like Black March will be OTLs Black May for the U-boats in this TL

Great work Fester