I guess the Russian government might try harder to make the CIS more tightly integrated ITTL?
I have it in an outline that some of those nations will be more resistant towards the idea of Russia starting a new Cold War given that they just broke apart from the USSR 10 years prior.
I would say that the strategic aim of Indonesia is not merely neutrality but also independence in its foreign policy ie. actively going after its own goals instead of merely playing both sides against the other. However, recognizing the limits of its powers, it’s attempting to get the other Southeast Asians on board so that they can move as a bloc politically.And regardless Indonesia becoming seen as more important in foreign capitals only encourages foreign powers to jockey to win it over. If any place would benefit from geopolitical neutrality it would be Indonesia.
ITTL Japan has Koichi Kato as its Prime Minister at the moment. Ideologically similar to Koizumi but foreign policy wise tends to be pro-China. Though Japanese Prime Ministers never seem to last long.Methinks Japan would be an interesting partner with Indonesia in all of this...
Vietnam’s trajectory is similar to OTL. In OTL, under Le Kha Phieu, Vietnam was getting too close to China which is quite something because Vietnam doesn’t really trust and can be hostile towards China (despite the fact that they’re communists). But they decisively make the jump into ITTL world with the decision to listen to China’s request to delay the VCP National Congress (more on this in the Northeast Asia update).Yooo Vietnam is in for interesting times. A coup might be in the cards with how blatant that attempt is. ASEAN as a whole really is getting tugged from all direction huh?
Would be interesting to see what impact a long-serving PM would have on this. Even leaving this aside though, Indonesia could grow in importance enough to make it necessary for even the most pro-China or pro-American PM to have them in the equation.ITTL Japan has Koichi Kato as its Prime Minister at the moment. Ideologically similar to Koizumi but foreign policy wise tends to be pro-China. Though Japanese Prime Ministers never seem to last long.