So basically this: If the Belgian Revolution never happened and the United Kingdom of the Netherlands stays alive, would WW1 still happen, or wouldn’t it because of the butterflies?
If the Belgian Revolution never happened, would WW1 still happen?
- Thread starter Friedrich der Große
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You probably still see a major European war at some point as that was practically inevitable. But it would not be the OTL war, or likely resemble the OTL conflict. Indeed you may see a war started by France who demanded the French speaking portions of Belgium returned to them, with the UKoN, a Germany analogue and the British empire fighting against a France/Russia alliance.
WWI as we know it wouldn't happen if numerous events hadn't occurred (German unification at French expense, Ottoman decline causing the Austrians to attempt to move in as the new overlord, Germany seeking a place in the sun and building up its navy as a result). What the Belgian Revolution did in this context was to weaken a buffer state between France and Prussia, and London's guarantee of Belgium gave them a commitment on the Continent that in part led to the Western Front.
It totally depends about treaties and alliance systems. And as great power Britain is involved with some way. The Great War is going to be very different from outs. Mihgt be even unrecognsible.
Without Belgium the unification of Germany will be very different. A major event that happened before the Franco-Prussian war, the Luxemburg crisis, will not happen for example. Luxemburg was officialy in personal union with the Netherlands and part of the German confederation, but it was effectively an integral part of the Netherlands and treated as such. OTL after the Belgian revolution Luxemburg (halved in sized) was no longer connected to the rest of the Netherlands, so it slowly drifted away from the Netherlands. So it made sense for the king of the Netherlands to sell it to France. With Luxemburg an integral part of the Netherlands, that would never happen. Which also means less tention between France and Germany.
That said, with Luxemburg an integral part of the Netherlands, it might to officialy want to annex it to the Netherlands. Kind of like what Denmark wanted to do with Schlesswick-Holstein. If something similar happened, the German states might actualy attack the Netherlands, just like they did with Denmark. This would certainly shift the balance of power in Europe. The Netherlands was always somewhat pro-Germany. This would place them solidly in the French camp. And probably Britain too, since Anglo-Dutch relation would probably be pretty good and Britain would not want the Netherlands (including Flanders and Antwerp) to become German.
No doubt you can easily think of a couple of other examples of what would or could change.
Basicly a surviving united kingdom of the Netherlands would completely shift the balance of power in Europe. You can not speak about World War one like it happened OTL with a POD almost 100 years earlier.
That said, with Luxemburg an integral part of the Netherlands, it might to officialy want to annex it to the Netherlands. Kind of like what Denmark wanted to do with Schlesswick-Holstein. If something similar happened, the German states might actualy attack the Netherlands, just like they did with Denmark. This would certainly shift the balance of power in Europe. The Netherlands was always somewhat pro-Germany. This would place them solidly in the French camp. And probably Britain too, since Anglo-Dutch relation would probably be pretty good and Britain would not want the Netherlands (including Flanders and Antwerp) to become German.
No doubt you can easily think of a couple of other examples of what would or could change.
Basicly a surviving united kingdom of the Netherlands would completely shift the balance of power in Europe. You can not speak about World War one like it happened OTL with a POD almost 100 years earlier.
Europe was a powder keg which had several smaller wars in the period after the Napoleonic wars. These conflicts led to even greater tensions, and a web of complex alliances grew which ensured that each war became increasingly horrible. In a world with a larger Netherlands I would see a similar situation to that growing.
Actualy, the period after the Napoleonic wars is often seen as one of the largest peaceful periods in European history, comparable to the post WWII or post coldwar period.
And yet it is fairly full of conflict. Several Spanish civil wars, wars of German and Italian unification, Prussia's wars with France, Denmark, and Austria, the Crimean war, multiple Russo-Turkish wars, the Belgian revolution, the revolutions of 48, Greek war of independence, and thats just in Europe and I am certainly missing a few. Many of these conflicts were fairly large and bloody affairs which led to significant tensions on the continent.
So actually the century was not terribly peaceful for anyone unless you are a modern historian looking at things from the British perspective.
probably. More importantly though, Franz Joseph has been born already (just a few days before the revolution!) so unless 1848 is prevented entirely his reign is likely still going to happen.
I agree but Wilhelm II is more important I think? Without him Bismarck would stay in power, so no anti-German europe, so no WW1? So if he would be butterflied away, we wouldn’t have WW1 I think?
This would make for an excellent POD, for a number of reasons... but 80+ years is way too long to predict if a Great War would break out around 1914 for similar reasons as in OTL...
Thinking about it... a United Netherlands retaining Belgium would be more than a buffer state, it would be one of the major powers of Europe - combining the commercial economy of the Netherlands proper with the industrial might and resources of the "Southern Provinces" , plus the Dutch colonial empire. Militarily, it could afford a much more muscular presence in continental European affairs.
If Germany unites "on schedule" , the Schlieffen Plan may not even exist, for one... hell, the Franco-Prussian War might not even happen.
This Megadutch state may not influence Balkan affairs very much, so the "powder keg" may still explode, but the consequences may remain confined to the East... again, 80 years is a long time...
Africa would most likely look way different by 1914, as with no Belgium, it's unlikely that a minor Saxon Prince will set out to carve out his own Empire on the Congo - thus setting off the Scramble.
The more I think about it, the more I like this.... There are really near-infinite possibilities
Thinking about it... a United Netherlands retaining Belgium would be more than a buffer state, it would be one of the major powers of Europe - combining the commercial economy of the Netherlands proper with the industrial might and resources of the "Southern Provinces" , plus the Dutch colonial empire. Militarily, it could afford a much more muscular presence in continental European affairs.
If Germany unites "on schedule" , the Schlieffen Plan may not even exist, for one... hell, the Franco-Prussian War might not even happen.
This Megadutch state may not influence Balkan affairs very much, so the "powder keg" may still explode, but the consequences may remain confined to the East... again, 80 years is a long time...
Africa would most likely look way different by 1914, as with no Belgium, it's unlikely that a minor Saxon Prince will set out to carve out his own Empire on the Congo - thus setting off the Scramble.
The more I think about it, the more I like this.... There are really near-infinite possibilities
If you compare it to the 16th-18th century it was in fact relatively peaceful. But yeah, relatively peaceful does not mean completely peaceful. Just like there is now a war in Ukraine, yet the rest of Europe is peaceful. Or in the 90's the wars in former Yugoslavia, yet the rest of Europe was fine. It was a peaceful decade. Unless you were at the wrong spot.
The first question which comes to mind is why the belgian revolution fails. It is very unlikely that the Powers find a common ground to enforce again the provisions of the congress of Vienna. Equally unlikely that Prussia and/or Austria intervene with troops, and that is even truer for Russia. This leaves a better performance of Dutch troops to repress the insurrection or the compromise proposed to the insurgents is accepted (and Louis Philippe blinks, which is likely enough).
The future history of Europe will be significantly affected by which of these events happens.
The future history of Europe will be significantly affected by which of these events happens.