Hope, Change, and Nutmeg - A US political timeline
- Thread starter Seleucus
- Start date
The dynamics propelling both men to the nomination are the same.
McCain is the only real compromise candidate. Even more so than IOTL, as the only plausible alternative was Romney, whose bid flamed out here thanks to butterflies and random chance. Giuliani would lose a third of the party due to social issues; Romney is seen as a waffling flip-flopper who'll say anything he can to be elected ITTL; Huckabee only really appeals to social conservatives and rural voters. The best Huckabee can hope for is a brokered convention at this point, but going for that will destroy his relations with the Republican establishment due to how destructive it would be for the party.
Democrats were looking for a more liberal-sounding alternative than Hillary, and Obama was the only plausible contender in that role. Edwards almost filled it at first IOTL, but then, well.... you don't think that he *really* quit thanks to his wife's cancer and a desire for unity, do you?
Given how different the two presidential races have been, the aftermath will be pretty different as well. Hillary never went hard negative on Obama here, as she did after Super Tuesday IOTL for instance, because by the time she realized that he had the upper hand it was too late. And she didn't realize how much Warner staying in the race hurt her disproportionately in the delegate math because her campaign people didn't understand the delegate math (true story!)
Meanwhile, McCain is feeling extremely fed up and jilted with the Republican base and conservatives after the way they went nuclear on him with the robocalls (which was a very nasty trick used IOTL in 2006 by Republicans.) IOTL, Huckabee and him were pretty friendly and even seen as allies since the competition never got really negative - Huckabee was perceived as splitting the conservative vote from Romney, and never had a real chance at the nomination. Here, Huckabee is fighting harder and out to win it (though who knows what he'll decide after Super Tuesday), so the two campaigns definitely aren't on good terms anymore.
ITTL, there might have been some blackmail involved, with the person doing it telling Edwwrds that in his case, "the withdrawal method is the only viable alternative." That quote was from the original House of Cards, btw.
I can imagine the talking heads have Clinton on their shortlists for Obama's VP ITTL moreso than IOTL due to the relative lack of animosity there. I really would like to see that for several reasons. I'd love to see her impact on health care, given her history with the subject. I'd love to see her, as a New York politician, take on financial reform. I'd love to see an alternate foreign policy with her out of state. And for fun I'd love to see Bill as Second Husband.
I still understand, though, that the party is going to push for a white man on the ticket, and they're going to push hard. It'll be a battle between the "conventional wisdom" apparatchiks and the pollster apparatchiks, is my guess.
I still understand, though, that the party is going to push for a white man on the ticket, and they're going to push hard. It'll be a battle between the "conventional wisdom" apparatchiks and the pollster apparatchiks, is my guess.
....Let's just say that if you think Edwards stepped out willingly, I have a bridge to sell you in Brooklyn. Hope I made that *reasonably* clear in my TL with the events that preceded it.
Interesting speculation here. It's a bit fun to see how reader's expectations swing around based on the political news events. The analogy I want to make is to how the media overreacts to each and every political news story in this 24/7 hr media cycle.
I knew my plan for the 2008 campaign at the start of this timeline; some of the details have changed around quite a bit, but the overall structure remains the same.
I don't think he stepped out willingly. There was an exodus of campaign members beforehand. They probably told him they would go to the press and ruin him.
Part 2.9: Feb 6-8, 2008
Obama sweeps Super Tuesday - wins 3/4 of contests, solid 55% majority of pledged delegates!
Huckabee sweeps South - it's McCain's race to lose, but Huckabee is giving him a fight!
In his speech, the former Governor pledged to take the fight to McCain and ensure that Republicans in the remaining primaries will have the chance to make their vote count. Although analysts find it doubtful that Huckabee could snag the nomination, a strong showing could keep him a contender for in case the McCain campaign collapses, or to influence the Republican platform.
Paul sweeps caucuses!
Although the Texas congressman is far behind in third place, he is doing far better than anyone expected.
It's McCain with an edge - but can he secure a lead in pledged delegates?
The Arizona Senator is just below a majority in the pledged delegates that have been allocated thus far.
Mark Warner withdraws!
The former Virginia governor had hoped for a strong showing in the South after Edwards withdrew, but only managed to pick up Oklahoma. The other Southern states were swept by Senator Obama, who enjoyed strong support from African-American voters.
Hillary Clinton will stay in race
Despite a poor showing in Super Tuesday, especially in the delegate count, Senator Clinton has promised to stay in the presidential race, but vowed to keep it clean and fair.
Panic in Wall Street as markets plunge!
The S&P dropped by 3.2% the previous day on fears of recession. This follows four previous days of consecutive decreases.
SUV sales continue to plunge as oil prices surge
This development adds to US auto manufacturing woes.
Common Cents Issues expands operations - begins alleged anti-McCain push-polling!
The controversial robocall operations have also continued to the next few primaries - Kansas, Louisiana, Washington State, Virginia, Maryland, and the District of Columbia.
Food prices continue surge as US wheat stockpiles hit 60-year low!
Senators Obama, McCain, and Clinton make unprecedented joint press conference to denounce unethical campaign tactics
The conference is believed to be directed at Common Cents Polling, an independent organization that has recently directed a salvo of what outside observers call 'vicious' and 'ungentlemanly' phone attacks at Senator McCain, the current Republican frontrunner. According to leaks of their planned remarks, the three presidential candidates plan to call for civility in political debate, and the possibility of public financing or other reform to cut down upon such tactics.
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Part 2.10: Economics interlude
Senate passes economic stimulus!
The bill provides a mix of tax cuts, tax incentives, a loan limit package meant curb the subprime mortgage crisis, and infrastructure investment added by Congressional Democrats. The bill was originally expected to be much smaller before being expanded by Democrats seeking to pre-empt the expected recession. The total 2008 cost of the bill is expected to be around $300 billion, of which a third is infrastructure spending.
Real interest rates dropping rapidly - now turn negative!
Inflation-adjusted interest rates for US 5-year treasuries are now below zero. This means that the government is now effectively being paid to lend money by bond-holders. It is believed that the US Congress acquiesced to a much larger stimulus than expected in part because of this development.
When asked about the expansion of the stimulus package, one Democratic staffer stated that "The US Treasury market follows the principles of supply and demand, and with rates so low, people are telling us that they want to lend us money, they want us to take out loans. Should we have denied the free market instead?"
Despite the plunging interest rates, the last US Treasury auction was ten times oversubscribed.
Oil prices surge at market open!
The price of oil surged higher as the markets opened on Monday, jumping by $10 to the new price of $120/barrel. Analysts believe that the unexpectedly large size of the US stimulus package contributed to the price surge, as it's expected to raise demand for oil in the nation.
John Crowley announces Senate run in New Jersey!
The biotech millionaire will face former Rep Dick Zimmer in the Republican primary.
Bush threatens to veto jobless benefits extension bill!
In his threat, the president drew attention to a new bill making its way through the House committees that would automatically extend unemployment benefits for as long as the national unemployment rate - determined by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics - is higher than 6%. The bill is supported by many Keynesian economists who see it as a good automatic stabilizer in times of recession, but has received little support from Republicans due to concern over the removal of the minimum work requirement.
According to Rep Kevin Brady (R-TX), "This measure is well-intended. There's no question about it." But "this bill abandons the minimum work requirement that has in the past prevented the unscrupulous from gaming the system."
In its veto threat, the White House labeled the bill as "ill-targeted and costly." Still, administration officials offered a compromise, saying they could support a proposal to offer a six-month extension of benefits in high-unemployment states. Those states are defined in the legislation as states where the unemployment rate exceeds 6 percent.
The economic stimulus bill is twice the size as IOTL (OTL's didn't include any infrastructure stuff.) Also IOTL, unemployment insurance extensions weren't discussed until in June, after the May jobs report.
What congress proposed in IOTL's June was one of the typical ad-hoc emergency unemployment benefits extensions that we've seen with a 13-week extension. The Bush veto threat was essentially what was displayed in his TL, except they offered less. 49 Republicans voted with Democrats for the bill in the House, but they weren't able to overturn the veto with 2/3. The bill eventually went through in late November after the presidential election when it was utterly clear how bad the situation had already gotten.
What we're starting to see here is that the combination of the Lamont victory, the strong showing of Edwards and likely coronation of Obama as the Democratic nominee, and nasty Republican campaign is seriously encouraging Congressional Democrats, especially progressives. IOTL's stimulus bill passed 82-16 in the Senate, for instance, so there was a lot of room from pushing the boundaries here. As a result, we're seeing a much stronger Congressional response to the threat of recession, but that's having effects of its own as well - as seen by the surge in oil prices.
Crowley considered running IOTL, but didn't. The open seat is definitely tempting though. It's hard to find his views on health care, but given that he also considered running for Senate as a Republican in 2012, my assumption is that he opposed Obamacare.
What congress proposed in IOTL's June was one of the typical ad-hoc emergency unemployment benefits extensions that we've seen with a 13-week extension. The Bush veto threat was essentially what was displayed in his TL, except they offered less. 49 Republicans voted with Democrats for the bill in the House, but they weren't able to overturn the veto with 2/3. The bill eventually went through in late November after the presidential election when it was utterly clear how bad the situation had already gotten.
What we're starting to see here is that the combination of the Lamont victory, the strong showing of Edwards and likely coronation of Obama as the Democratic nominee, and nasty Republican campaign is seriously encouraging Congressional Democrats, especially progressives. IOTL's stimulus bill passed 82-16 in the Senate, for instance, so there was a lot of room from pushing the boundaries here. As a result, we're seeing a much stronger Congressional response to the threat of recession, but that's having effects of its own as well - as seen by the surge in oil prices.
Crowley considered running IOTL, but didn't. The open seat is definitely tempting though. It's hard to find his views on health care, but given that he also considered running for Senate as a Republican in 2012, my assumption is that he opposed Obamacare.
I would imagine you're right, as he's working in a "free market" health care business of sorts. Still, I'd be interested to know his stance on health care issues that bleed into the culture war. Stem cells, for one example. That's one of many places where he's not a party line Republican.
Part 2.12: Legislation interlude
Just a note as to what the President is doing ITTL...
Bush denounces "Pork Barrel" additions to stimulus bill!
In a statement, the White House denounced what it characterized as "wasteful" "pork barrel" spending added to his stimulus bill by Congressional Democrats. The items, which bill supporters call infrastructure investment, make up $100 billion in total. This is in addition to the $150 billion tax cuts requested by the President which Congress expanded to $200 billion, also at the urging of Congressional Democrats.
In response, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid pointed to a report by the American Society of Civil Engineers, which states that infrastructure deficiencies already cost the US an estimated $110 billion yearly in the cost of operating vehicles and travel delays. According to the ASCE report, “If investments in surface transportation infrastructure are not made soon, these costs are expected to grow exponentially." According to a Democratic congressional statement, "With real interest rates as low as they are, it is fiscal mismanagement to *not* spend the money on revitalizing our nation's decaying roads, bridges, railroads, and transit systems."
Although the White House has threatened to veto the legislation in question, the bill passed by a vote of 70-23 in the Senate and 330-64 in the House - more than enough to defeat any veto attempt.
US House fails to override SCHIP expansion veto!
Although 44 Republicans voted with all 230 of the present Democrats, the final tally was 277 - 138, just two votes short of the 2/3 majority necessary to override President Bush's veto. The failure came despite impassioned pleas by Democrats for the bill as a way to alleviate hardship caused by the nation’s economic woes.
In contrast, Republicans cited the economic woes as a reason not to approve it. “We just passed a $300 billion economic stimulus package to get us out of a recession,” said Representative Phil Gingrey, Republican of Georgia. “We need the money for that. We don’t want to be squandering money to provide health insurance for those who can afford to do it for themselves.”
In his latest veto message, Mr. Bush said the bill would “result in government health care for approximately two million children who already have private health care coverage,” from employers or other sources.
Bush vows veto of mortgage relief bill!
The New York Times: Siding with banks and lenders, the President threatened to veto a bill being offered by Senate Democrats that would give more bargaining power to homeowners who face foreclosure.
The bill would allow bankruptcy court judges to modify the terms of a mortgage as part of the restructuring of a debt in a bankruptcy filing. Supporters of the legislation say it could prevent as many as 600,000 home foreclosures affecting people who took out tickler or other complicated mortgages and now face steep increases in interest rates and monthly payments.
In a statement issued Tuesday afternoon, the White House said the bill would “undermine existing contracts” and lead to tighter credit. According to President Bush at a later press conference, "The Senate is considering legislation that would do more to bail out lenders and speculators than to help homeowners keep their homes. The Senate bill would actually prolong the time it takes for the housing market to adjust and recover, and it would lead to higher interest rates."
When asked about the prospect of recession at the same conference, the president stated that "I don't think we're headed to a recession." When asked about further economic stimulus proposals from Congressional Democrats - including an unemployment insurance extension and and their failed expansion of SCHIP, he responded "Why don't we let stimulus package one (sic) have a chance to kick in?" He also called for keeping his tax cuts permanent to help consumers hurt financially and facing the prospect of $4/gallon gasoline.
Bush denounces "Pork Barrel" additions to stimulus bill!
In a statement, the White House denounced what it characterized as "wasteful" "pork barrel" spending added to his stimulus bill by Congressional Democrats. The items, which bill supporters call infrastructure investment, make up $100 billion in total. This is in addition to the $150 billion tax cuts requested by the President which Congress expanded to $200 billion, also at the urging of Congressional Democrats.
In response, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid pointed to a report by the American Society of Civil Engineers, which states that infrastructure deficiencies already cost the US an estimated $110 billion yearly in the cost of operating vehicles and travel delays. According to the ASCE report, “If investments in surface transportation infrastructure are not made soon, these costs are expected to grow exponentially." According to a Democratic congressional statement, "With real interest rates as low as they are, it is fiscal mismanagement to *not* spend the money on revitalizing our nation's decaying roads, bridges, railroads, and transit systems."
Although the White House has threatened to veto the legislation in question, the bill passed by a vote of 70-23 in the Senate and 330-64 in the House - more than enough to defeat any veto attempt.
US House fails to override SCHIP expansion veto!
Although 44 Republicans voted with all 230 of the present Democrats, the final tally was 277 - 138, just two votes short of the 2/3 majority necessary to override President Bush's veto. The failure came despite impassioned pleas by Democrats for the bill as a way to alleviate hardship caused by the nation’s economic woes.
In contrast, Republicans cited the economic woes as a reason not to approve it. “We just passed a $300 billion economic stimulus package to get us out of a recession,” said Representative Phil Gingrey, Republican of Georgia. “We need the money for that. We don’t want to be squandering money to provide health insurance for those who can afford to do it for themselves.”
In his latest veto message, Mr. Bush said the bill would “result in government health care for approximately two million children who already have private health care coverage,” from employers or other sources.
Bush vows veto of mortgage relief bill!
The New York Times: Siding with banks and lenders, the President threatened to veto a bill being offered by Senate Democrats that would give more bargaining power to homeowners who face foreclosure.
The bill would allow bankruptcy court judges to modify the terms of a mortgage as part of the restructuring of a debt in a bankruptcy filing. Supporters of the legislation say it could prevent as many as 600,000 home foreclosures affecting people who took out tickler or other complicated mortgages and now face steep increases in interest rates and monthly payments.
In a statement issued Tuesday afternoon, the White House said the bill would “undermine existing contracts” and lead to tighter credit. According to President Bush at a later press conference, "The Senate is considering legislation that would do more to bail out lenders and speculators than to help homeowners keep their homes. The Senate bill would actually prolong the time it takes for the housing market to adjust and recover, and it would lead to higher interest rates."
When asked about the prospect of recession at the same conference, the president stated that "I don't think we're headed to a recession." When asked about further economic stimulus proposals from Congressional Democrats - including an unemployment insurance extension and and their failed expansion of SCHIP, he responded "Why don't we let stimulus package one (sic) have a chance to kick in?" He also called for keeping his tax cuts permanent to help consumers hurt financially and facing the prospect of $4/gallon gasoline.
Orville_third
Banned
I don't think the Democrats would be as supportive of the mortgage help, even with Senator Lamont. Look at what they did OTL.
A few things that could change things:
-Barr and McKinney are still running, right?
-Will the two party nominees make the Texas ballot deadline, unlike OTL? If not, will Texas enforce its laws and keep them off the ballot?
A few things that could change things:
-Barr and McKinney are still running, right?
-Will the two party nominees make the Texas ballot deadline, unlike OTL? If not, will Texas enforce its laws and keep them off the ballot?
The mortgage relief attempt (and Bush's veto threat) is completely from OTL. Here's the NYT on it. (I find it interesting that the parts I take from OTL are occasionally considered unrealistic, but the things I do change and feel unsure about, nobody has really criticized yet.)
Bob Barr hasn't said anything publicly about the presidency, but the grassroots are trying to draft him. Other Libertarians are trying to get a Ron Paul candidacy, prompted by how well he's doing in the primaries.
Cynthia McKinney announced her presidential campaign in late 2007 and has been running proudly as a Green.
The Texas ballot deadline is August 26. It's still quite a few months away. *
* I've been debating doing something with it though, but it's not like Barr had much of a chance with the Texas Supreme Court.
Bob Barr hasn't said anything publicly about the presidency, but the grassroots are trying to draft him. Other Libertarians are trying to get a Ron Paul candidacy, prompted by how well he's doing in the primaries.
Cynthia McKinney announced her presidential campaign in late 2007 and has been running proudly as a Green.
The Texas ballot deadline is August 26. It's still quite a few months away. *
* I've been debating doing something with it though, but it's not like Barr had much of a chance with the Texas Supreme Court.
Part 2.13: Feb 9-13, 2008
Huckabee wins Kansas and Louisiana; Paul wins Washington!
McCain was shut out completely in a vote that saw the Arkansas governor pick up all 56 of the delegates allocated
Kansas:
Huckabee: 14,516 (61.21%)
Paul: 4,992 (21.05%)
McCain: 3,498 (14.75%)
Louisiana:
Huckabee: 98,234 (53.05%)
McCain: 50,300 (27.18%)
Paul: 30,095 (16.25%)
Washington:
Paul: 7,779 (47.41%)
Huckabee: 4,758 (29.00%)
McCain: 2,168 (13.21%)
Obama sweeps Louisiana, Washington, Nebraska, and the Virgin Islands!
Senator Clinton was a good sport, graciously conceding defeat in the four contests
Louisiana:
Obama: 232,246 (55.68%)
Clinton: 161,267 (38.66%)
Washington:
Obama: 20,589 (62.48%)
Clinton: 11,713 (35.55%)
Nebraska:
Obama: 22,862 (63.04%)
Clinton: 12,972 (35.77%)
Virgin Islands:
Obama: 1,424 (72.31%)
Clinton: 489 (24.83%)
Obama carries Maine!
Caucus results (state delegates):
Obama - 1,831 (56.38%)
Clinton - 1,358 (41.82%)
Congress shifts tack - moves back to Medicare price negotiations
Over the past week, Republicans have blocked several key pieces of Democratic legislation with veto threats and filibusters, all with the rationale of being fiscally responsible. Now, Democrats aim to use their words against them, by taking up the cause of Medicare price negotiation once more. The resurrected Senate bill will permit the Secretary of Health and Human Services to negotiate drug prices at their discretion.
According to Majority Leader Harry Reid, “The Department of Veterans Affairs is able to negotiate for lower-priced drugs. H.M.O.’s can negotiate. Wal-Mart can negotiate. Why in the world shouldn't Medicare be able to do that?”
But the Congressional Budget office concluded that the bill "would have a negligible effect on federal spending." According to their report, "Without the authority to establish a formulary or other tools to reduce drug prices, we believe that the secretary would not obtain significant discounts from drug manufacturers across a broad range of drugs."
Obama sweeps Potomac primaries!
Results:
District of Columbia:
Obama: 84,489 (66.09%)
Clinton: 41,038 (32.10%)
Maryland:
Obama: 530,704 (56.80%)
Clinton: 371,404 (39.75%)
Virginia:
Obama: 621,753 (60.45%)
Clinton: 384,641 (37.62%)
Democrats Abroad:
Obama: 13,361 (60.45%)
Clinton: 8,223 (37.21%)
McCain regains stride with Potomac Primaries - takes DC and Maryland!
DC:
McCain: 3,989 (49.08%)
Paul: 2,055 (25.29%)
Huckabee: 1,786 (21.98%)
Delegates: McCain - 16
Maryland:
McCain: 146,701 (37.58%)
Huckabee: 138,661 (35.52%)
Paul: 74,293 (18.60%)
Delegates: McCain - 19, Huckabee - 15,
Virginia:
Huckabee: 259,132 (43.32%)
McCain: 239,250 (40.00%)
Paul: 79,260 (13.25%)
Delegates: Huckabee - 60
McCain: 3,989 (49.08%)
Paul: 2,055 (25.29%)
Huckabee: 1,786 (21.98%)
Delegates: McCain - 16
Maryland:
McCain: 146,701 (37.58%)
Huckabee: 138,661 (35.52%)
Paul: 74,293 (18.60%)
Delegates: McCain - 19, Huckabee - 15,
Virginia:
Huckabee: 259,132 (43.32%)
McCain: 239,250 (40.00%)
Paul: 79,260 (13.25%)
Delegates: Huckabee - 60
Republican base strikes back?
9-term Congressman Wayne Gilchrest primaried out; Andy Harris will be the Republican nominee.
Democratic base flexes muscles!
Sitting Congressman Albert Wynn lost his primary in a landslide to Donna Edwards.
Congressman Eric Massa announces resignment!
The Congressman cited his declining health and an ongoing ethics investigation as reasons for his resignation. Reports indicate that the House Ethics committee has been investigating allegations of sexual misconduct as a result of a complaint filed by a senior member of Massa's staff. At a press conference, Massa characterized his language and demeanor as "salty" and stated that "There is no doubt in my mind that I did in fact, use language in the privacy of my own home and in my inner office that, after 24 years in the navy, might make a Chief Petty Officer feel uncomfortable. In fact, there is no doubt that this ethics issue is my fault and mine alone."
McCain having trouble locking down nomination?
The current delegate tally:
McCain - 633 (43.30%)
Huckabee - 447 (30.57%)
Allocated at state conventions - 283 (19.36%)
Paul - 53 (3.63%)
Romney - 47 (3.21%)
Republican presidential polling numbers dropping fast - nasty primary to blame?
Part 2.14: Feb 14-22, 2008
McCain takes off the gloves: Anti-Huckabee attack ads began airing in next primary states!
India bans rice exports as food prices surge!
McCain takes Wisconsin and Washington; Obama takes Wisconsin and Hawaii!
Wisconsin Republican primary:
McCain: 202,638 (44.25%)
Huckabee: 188,565 (41.18%)
Paul: 57,460 (12.55%)
Delegates: McCain -28, Huckabee - 9
Washington Republican primary:
McCain: 328,826 (44.28%)
Huckabee: 195,161 (26.60%)
Paul: 67,956 (19.32%)
Delegates: McCain - 11, Huckabee - 6, Paul - 2
Hawaii Democratic caucuses:
Obama: 22,146 (61.40%)
Clinton: 13,439 (37.26%)
Wisconsin Democratic primary:
Obama: 604,853 (53.30%)
Clinton: 509,448 (44.89%)
US shoots down NROL-21 satellite, raising fears of Kessler syndrome and space militarization
Rioters take to the streets in Burkina Faso, as food and petrol prices surge.
The government has confirmed it has been releasing emergency stocks onto the market to try to keep prices down. Some government officials said that informally customs has been blocking exports of grains and cereals, although this is not a nationwide policy.
The government also says it has also lowered taxes on some basic goods by between 30 and 35 percent.
Anti-government protests and general strike in Cameroon!
The trigger for the unrest is believed to be a combination of the surge in food and fuel prices, as well as a perceived power grab by President Paul Biya, who has sought to amend the constitution to remove term limits.
All eyes on Texas and Ohio, as "Super Tuesday II" approaches.
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