Part X
War and Peace
2002 kicked off with a serious escalation of two conflicts one hot, one cold. India-Pakistan and Israel-Palestine
Following the 1999 Kargil war, which saw Pakistan and India skirmish over the disputed Kashmir region (in the only hot conflict between two now nuclear powers), relations between Pakistan and India had only worsened. India raced to update and fund its military while increasing positive relations with the United States. Pakistan had been internationally shunned and humiliated in its loss and faced the brink of economic and diplomatic collapse[1]. A blame game began between the Pakistani military and politicians waged that ended when General Musharraf orchestrated a bloodless coup d’état against Prime minister Sharif that shortly elevated Musharaff to the presidency. The coup while broadly popular in Pakistan was another sign of the nation’s broken democracy to the wider world.
Musharraf made for a controversial leader, a secular liberal and committed nationalist. Musharraf strode a fine line, making enemies among western democracies and jihadist militants[2]. He attempted to garner better relations with the west and end their embargos against Pakistan these efforts included an attempt to better Indo-Pakistan relations though both overtures failed due to Pakistan’s continued support/protection of the Taliban and various militant groups, support which Musharraf refused to end.
General Musharraf, President of Pakistan
By 2002 Pakistan’s reconciliation efforts with India were placed on ice by a surge of attacks by terrorist groups supposedly sponsored by Pakistan, Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM). The militants attacked army bases in 2000, and airports in 2001. In October 2001 militants drove a car bomb into the Indian-controlled Kashmiri parliament killing 38 people. India released a statement clearly aimed at Pakistan
“India will not allow such exercises in hate and terror from across its borders … our toleration wears thin”. India’s tolerance would be tested again on December 21st, 7 militants attacked the Gujarat legislative assembly with guns and explosives. The group gained access to the building and killed dozens, they endured a day-long siege before security forces stormed the building and killed the assailants leaving 41 (including attackers) dead and dozens more injured.[3] India blamed the militant groups and
“a neighbouring country” for aiding them demanding the arrest of its leaders, and the end to the alleged training, arming, and in some cases direct command over the Kashmir insurgency. Pakistan took no such action and Musharraf failed to publicly condemn the attacks setting the stage for a major confrontation between the nuclear states.
Gujurat Police following the Gujurat parliament attack
The west largely sympathised with India and one by one labeled JeM and LeT terrorist organisations, but Pakistan remained firm in its inaction. Its military spokesmen blamed the increased terrorism on India and implied the Gujarat attack was a false flag to deliberately escalate tensions. The Indian public displayed their anger, in Gujarat large scale anti-Muslim violence broke out in January leading to thousands of casualties, the rioters were aided by police and local officials, the Indian government rebuffed efforts for foreign mediation and in February prime minister Narayana requested plans for a military solution to eliminate the terrorist infrastructure in Kashmir. An economic review by the Indian treasury found that
“India’s economy is a hundred times stronger than Pakistan’s to bear hostilities … the economy is prepared for war”. [4]
The second of the world’s intractable problems, the Israeli–Palestinian conflict continued as Palestinian protests and increasing terror attacks battled the Israeli forces. Early efforts to negotiate an end to the fighting were fruitless but as violence continued into 2002 both sides recognised that they would either need to take drastic action risking further devastation or somehow reach a cease-fire.
Increasingly Palestinians became more extreme and supported more militant groups outside of Yasser Arafat’s PLO most prominently Hamas. A spree of deadly suicide bombings killing dozens in late 2001 shook Israel. Israeli hardliners demanded a swift and overt response to sweep away the militants. The government of Ariel Sharron who entered office a hard-line hawk considered an invasion of the west bank[5], but fears of foreign (including US) disapproval forced Israeli leadership to choose less ‘overt’ measures opting for an increase in targeted killings (assassinations that often-carried large civilian body counts), cross border firefights and began the controversial construction of a border wall between Israeli settlements and Palestinian territory. He attempted to achieve the backing of the US government to side-line Arafat describing him as the instrument of terror and the main roadblock to peace, but the Bush administration declined to support any such measures, citing Arafat’s support among Palestinians and was unsympathetic to Sharron’s actions as ‘
unhelpful and harmful to the peace process'.[6]
PLO leader Yasser Arafat and Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharron
The escalating violence convinced the Bush administration to try again to revive peace efforts, in cooperation with the United Nations, European Union, and Russia the so-called
middle east quartet. In March 2002, the UN and the Bush administration endorsed a two-state solution and for the first time supported a Palestinian state, the Bush administration careful to attack and denounce actions of both Palestine militant groups and Israeli defense forces declared that the Quartet would develop a
road map to peace based on shared goals and mutual respect.[7]
President Bush delivered a speech that outlined his administrations and the quartets plan to revive and hopefully energize the peace process. Arafat and the PLO received the plan more warmly than Sharron who refused to take the step, until Palestinian attacks had ended and continued to drag his heels over Arafat’s role in negotiations but still endorsed the individual steps in the roadmap.
Quartet on the Middle East (US, Russia, EU and UN)
The road map initiative represented a loss for the neoconservatives who were distasteful of the idea that the United States should need to cooperate with any power to resolve foreign disputes, and it angered those that saw Palestine as a cover for enemies of the United States such as Iraq, Libya, and Iran. They especially saw Yasser Arafat as a corrupt thug, using the Palestinian cause as a smokescreen to oppose the United States, they intended to push the administration further right on foreign policy and take the nation with it. It took the events in April 2002 to give the hawks more influence in the White House.[8]
In the aftermath of the Millennium Jordan attacks, American intelligence began to assess in-depth the depth, the threat of Jihadist terror to prevent possible future attacks. What was revealed was a mess, no less than a dozen overlapping organisations with no clear hierarchy or plan. Some held links to foreign nations or ongoing conflicts some were
‘free-lance terrorists’ with seemingly no loyalties or strong ties to any one group. The agencies did all agree that the
“drums were beating”, which meant that several networks and actors were cooperating in the planning of
“extraordinary” attacks. Occasionally these threats were brought to the Presidents daily briefings. They read that the remnants of the late Bin Laden's network, Al-Qaeda, in cooperation with other terror groups were plotting a major attack on the United States.
Presidential daily brief
The agencies believed that Al-Qaeda’s principal leader Mohammed Atef, was committed to following through on Bin Ladens war against the US and was focused on outdoing his Jihadist rivals in both scale and devastation. The administration was sceptical of the reports, believing it was just more CIA trumpet blowing. They imagined that Al-Qaeda was a dead organisation and told the agencies to focus on finding Zarqawi. But the White House didn’t block the agencies and allowed the investigations to continue.
The agencies monitored communications, meetings, speeches, and activities. By mid-2001 they came to believe a possible attack on US soil was imminent. The CIA and FBI following on from its millennium investigations into possible terror
‘sleeper agents’ operating inside the US and even identified two suspected Al-Qaeda members who had entered the United States and a search for them began. In August a torrent of leads flooded the cables. Messages from Mi6, Mossad, and the Afghan northern alliance warned of an attack[9], but still, the agencies working against each other failed to unravel whatever they were looking for despite the
“sirens blaring red”.
All through 2001, the FBI and CIA operated separate investigations managing to arrest two men in August (Zacarias Moussaoui) and November (Abderraouf Jdey)[10] on immigration charges, their arrests and interrogations revealed links to Al-Qaeda and materials related to plane hijackings. Greater revelations in December were made, when Singapore law enforcement arrested 17 people, supposedly in the final stages of planning for an attack on Singapore’s Changi airport and other government buildings. The airport attack involving the hijacking of planes and two members of the Singapore plot had undergone flight training like one of the suspects currently under arrest.
Suspected Al-Qaeda operatives Zacarias Moussaoui and Abderraouf Jdey
Secretary of Defence Rumsfeld and National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice prodded the CIA and FBI, and the agencies began cooperating to neutralise the immediate domestic threat.[11] A key breakthrough came in January, the identities of the men who had entered the U.S. long-time Al-Qaeda operatives, Nawaf al-Hazmi and Khalid al-Midhar both of whom had received flight training and a full manhunt was underway.
In January 2002 the U.S. Border patrol arrested Ahmed Ressam[12] smuggling hundreds of pounds of explosive material from Canada to the United States. The FBI took over the case and made massive revelations revealing that the previously arrested operatives were here to pull off an extraordinary attack on the United States involving hijacking and bombing planes with explosives he was supposed to supply and identified Hazmi and Midhar as the ringleaders.
Suspected bomb maker, Ahmed Ressam
The search widened, bank accounts, car registrations any suspicious activity to find the two. Finally, on February 7th Midhar was found and arrested attempting to purchase a flight to Yemen (having been added to the federal governments' “no transport” list). Following his trail, the FBI and CIA managed to make a half a dozen arrests in New Jersey of recent visitors to the United States in connection to the Midhar, including Hani Hanjour a commercial pilot, Salem Hazmi (Nawaz’s younger brother), Majed Moqed, Ahmed al-Nami, Wail Mohammed al -Sherhi and Saeed al Ghamdi all Saudi’s who had shared multiple accommodations.
Members of the 2002 Plane Plot (Khalid Midhar, Nawaz and Salem Hazmi and Hani Hanjour)
The failure to locate the elder Hazmi meant the investigations were placed on high alert, but little information could be attained to his whereabouts and the arrestees’ responses to interrogation ranged from complete silence, spitting rage, and total emotional collapse. Interrogations and evidence provided the basic outline for the attempted attack, members would receive flight and combat training, purchase tickets for domestic trips, and assemble explosives that would be used to hijack aircraft (the total number of aircraft differed from 1 up to as many as a 12) once hijacked the final objective of the plot differed between each of the arrested, the CIA came to the initial conclusion that the planes would be held hostage pending unknown demands while the FBI analysis said that the planes would be deliberately crashed or exploded over populated areas akin to flight 587 no specific date for the attacks could be determined, and fears over more cells prompted a massive sweep of the country ordered by the president.
Investigation into Hazmi and Midhar revealed a large international network that connected them, the other plotters, Al-Qaeda, and other terror financiers including the
free-lance terrorist Khalid Sheikh Mohammed identified as the plot's main architect.
Despite the heightened alert level of the United States following the February 7th arrests it still came as a complete shock when on April 16th, 2002, Richard Reid boarded United Airlines flight 470 from Orlando to San Francisco.
2 hours into the flight Reid attempted to detonate an explosive device hidden in one of his shoes despite repeated attempts at setting the device alight and several telling offs by flight attendants who believed he was smoking. Reid became erratic and violent revealing a knife that he used to slash a flight attendants’ hand, before locking himself in a plane bathroom.
Worried for passengers and the crew’s safety from the violent passenger, the plane was diverted to Oklahoma. During this diversion, the explosive device was successfully detonated by Reid.[13] Miraculously the explosion resulted in only Reid’s death and failed to penetrate the fuselage of the plane or start a large fire allowing it to safely land and lead to no further deaths.[14]
Regardless of the outcome, the
2002 Plane Plot revealed serious flaws in the US intelligence agencies and law enforcement regarding the threat modern terror posed, and the administration was forced to rethink its actions regarding international terror and expanded its search for the plotters possible still at large and bring them to justice. [15]
[1] Behind the US and Afghanistan, 9/11 greatly effected Pakistan more than any other nation
[2] Musharraf was instrumental in Pakistans role in the war on terror and it was the key event during his tenure
[3] The Gujurat attack occurs ITTL instead of the Indian parliament attack. US intelligence has alleged that the parliament attack was organised by Pakistan to reroute the Pakistani army to allow for Bin Laden's escape from Afghanistan but terror had been building between India and Pakistan, regardless any Pakistani role redirects attacks away from the national parliament
[4] The OTL escalation was more sudden as India hoped that its actions would be OK’d due to the war on terror. Instead, ITTL the tensions slowly build between the nations.
[5] Operation defensive shield really hurt the peace process. Arafat was under siege and all apparatus of the Palestinian ‘government’ was destroyed boosting the popularity of more militant groups like Hamas, this does not occur ITTL to the same extent.
[6] Pre 9/11 the Bush administration (while definitely more sympathetic to Israel) was committed to a neutral role in the peace process. 9/11 just as it gave cover to India gave cover to Israel to escalate its war on terror and the US obliged. Still, Sharron is a hawk and doesn’t shift his stance quickly.
[7] In compliance with Bush’s more isolationist promises, the US takes a step back in the process than it did OTL. The roadmap is essentially the same but doesn’t request Palestinian leadership to be replaced
[8] Pre 9/11 the hawks were pretty unhappy with Bush’s agenda and it was definitely more compassionate-con than neo-con
[9] All OTL warnings except Massoud who survives to keep blowing the whistle
[10] Jdey disappeared after 9/11, KSM revealed under torture that he backed out of his role in a plot but who knows?
[11] The CIA FBI competing is
the reason 9/11 occurred. ITTL given the extra time, extra warnings, and extra attention from the White House they are forced to work together.
[12] Ressam was clearly not made to be a terrorist and gets captured being incredibly suspicious as he does OTL except the consequences are bigger.
[13] Reid failed to detonate his shoe bomb IOTL because his shoe was too damp and the heightened alertness of crew and passengers
[14] Subsequent analyses of the danger of Reids shoe bombs have differed in their assessment some claim it would have downed a plane but I’m inclined to believe that this is just post 9/11 fear. Similar attacks have only resulted in small explosions deadly to people in their immediate vicinity for instance the attempted assassination of Muhammad Nayef. Perhaps with better planning and knowledge, it could take a plane down, both things Reid didn’t have.
[15] This is the US’s view on how 9/11 or the
Plane Plot was foiled. I intend to follow this up with an explanation of the plot from Al-Qaeda’s perspective
