Geronimo : What if Osama Bin Laden was killed prior to 9/11?
- Thread starter Iwanh
- Start date
That and spy kids tech was my SHIT back in the day.Kinda like these?
Wouldn't have it any other way
I mean in the aftermath of 9/11 the torture in Syria got normalized and indeed they would get paid for it rather than it being seeing as wrong and human right's violation, despite Syria working with Jihadists.
Syria’s Abu al-Qaqa: Authentic Jihadist or Imposter?
Much has been written about the Aleppo-based Syrian preacher Abu al-Qaqa since Syrian security apprehended an armed group on June 2 that was attempting to carry out a terrorist attack at early dawn on the Ummayad Square in the heart of Damascus (Terrorism Focus, June 13). The story remains...
Iraq al Qaeda militant says Syria trained him
Iraq aired a confession from a suspected al Qaeda militant on Sunday who accused Syrian intelligence agents of training foreign fighters like himself in a camp before sending them to fight in Iraq. The videotaped accusations, aired by Baghdad security spokesman Qassim al-Moussawi...
www.reuters.com
Though the PKK are not democratic, they've been allied with Syria since 80s and helped their ally through the war after Bashar saw Turkey was supporting his enemies he reaffirmed their relationship you can't really call them a rebel group when they rely on government administration, Iran and Russia Syria's greatest allies.
Though at this timeline Syria would be friendlier with Turkey and Iran the main supporters of the PKK at this date, with them being crackdown on and not support as much as before.
Part 11: Combatting terror
Part XI
Combatting Terror
The events of the failed Plane Plot hijackings and the failed implementation of Richard Reid’s plane bombing greatly concerned the apparatus of the US government. The idea that a dozen agents of foreign terrorist organisations had managed to conceal themselves in the country, (some for upwards of 2 years!) where they worked and trained towards such an ambitious attack was more than terrifying to many.
Plane Plot conspirators in court
Briefly, all hands were on deck, given the immediate danger and the possibilities of further cells still out there. The appearance of Richard Reid, weeks after the Jersey cell had been busted meant that more operatives could still be present and preparing further attacks. Nawaf Hazmi, a key ringleader of the plot was in the wind and still at large and more investigations needed to be done to investigate the financing, support network, and origins of the operation to unravel the tangled web of international terror.
While the events shook the halls of power, the public was left largely unaware of the full lengths of the plot and thus remained unconcerned with its danger. The announcement of the Jersey plotters arrest was devoid of the full details describing them simply as “8 Saudis with ties to foreign terror groups were arrested for supposedly preparing to hijack aircraft”. The hijackers at the time of arrest held neither explosives nor firearms further decreasing the perceived danger. The only threat the public knew of was Hazmi, who became the most wanted fugitive in the country. The public was far more interested in the Reid attack weeks later[1] (and a definitive connection between Reid and the Jersey cell was not made immediately) it was a tale that veered from thriller to farce with the media dubbing him the bathroom bomber evoking corny action movies. The public was neither frightened nor deterred by these failed attacks, and despite some efforts of the Bush administration to update stronger safety measures and increase passenger awareness on airlines, fears of harsh measures reducing passenger numbers during a tough time for the industry deflated these efforts. Congressional leadership was also briefed where they exchanged praise of the fine work of the nation’s intelligence agencies though Democrats and Republicans differed over the actual seriousness of the threat.
Lethal Weapon 2
Law enforcement took the immediate lead in the investigations confirming that Hazmi had left the United States for Spain months prior to the arrests in Jersey. Hazmi had left either to further coordinate the operation from abroad or had abandoned the plot entirely according to separate sources. No further cells were located inside the United States, though a list of suspicious individuals was compiled, and a few were even arrested (prominently American Imam, Anwar Al-Awlaki) though all were subsequently released.[2]
But if the administration really intended to get tough on terrorism it meant bringing the fight to the terrorists, arresting those responsible, and doing everything they could do to disrupt their operations. This was considerably tougher to implement than any domestic measures. Anti-American terrorists operated across a dozen nations, ignored, or aided by their anti-American host countries. US policy had been relegated to harsh words and sanctions (occasionally airstrikes) but the terror scare prompted an updated response. Afghanistan already identified as the hub for terrorist organisations would be tackled, more assistance and training would be provided to the Northern Alliance named Operation Mercury, while more pressure would be placed upon the Taliban and Pakistan to cease their support for Al-Qaida and its affiliates and hand over certain wanted men. The latter became difficult as the Bush administration rejected any negotiations, instead preferring external pressure. A military response akin to the one that killed Bin Laden was considered and the defence department began drafting targets (including both terrorist and Taliban infrastructure) but was unwilling to order an engagement until the investigation pinpointed which specific groups and which specific targets were available to strike. Some wanted to go further still to include the use of U.S. special forces to perform international raids to destroy terrorist camps, some wanted to take these missions further and use US forces to depose the Taliban regime altogether and replace them with the opposition (though this was deemed too extreme).
Operation Mercury (CIA are sent to coordinate with the Afghan Northern Alliance)
The investigation was vast, but a crude timeline was sketched together of the plot. Al-Qaeda leader Muhammed Atef and rogue terrorist Khalid Sheikh Mohammed began collaborating 3 years ago combining Atefs militants and training camps in Afghanistan with KSM’s money and connections. They sent attackers to the United States to take flight lessons and construct explosive devices. Atef and KSM also reached out to southeast Asian terror organisation JI for participation. However, the execution of the plot was continually delayed by the inability to attain sufficient visas, poor flight training performance and difficulty in constructing explosives (leading to Ressams introduction into the plot) contacted by Atef lieutenant Abu Zubaydah, a breakdown in leadership between Mazri and Midhar at some point occurred as well.[3] No final date for the actual attack could be surmised[4]. The FBI report gave a pitiful assessment of the competency and organisation of the cell members doubting that they had the capacity to successfully hold hostage even 1 aircraft, leading to their assumption that the plot's final objective was destruction rather than demands.[5] Richard Reids was a last-minute having arrived in the US months later than any other attacker and already provided with the explosive shoe and remained in Florida separate from the Jersey cell until his attack in April.
Mohammed Atef and Khalid Sheik Mohammed, Cheif architects of the 2002 Plane Plot
The fear of further attacks subsided and most of the White House resumed its pre-attack stance, agreeing with the FBI analysis dismissing the attackers as incompetents only good at blowing themselves up. Pending CIA/FBI updates there was little else to be done, but some officials didn’t see it that way they couldn’t return to business as usual and believed the US needed to be proactive. Vice President Cheney was one of them and he became reportedly obsessed with the threat of terrorism. Trained operatives spending years undercover? A plot of this magnitude couldn’t have been prepared solely by terrorists, it would require the sort of financing and direction only a nation could provide and only one nation came to mind. It was a theory that was shared amongst White House neo-cons that Saddam Hussein was in some way responsible for the attempted attack, to them it wasn’t the first of Saddam’s crimes, he held alleged connections to the 1993 bombing of the World Trade Centre, and the attempted assassination of George H W Bush. The intelligence agencies dismissed the claims but were ordered to investigate links into Saddam’s terror links anyway and the issue of Iraq persisted.
Saddam Hussein 2002
As well as the fear of terror, domestic politics are thought to have played a role in the shift of the US’s foreign policy. The Bush administration sought to sure up its support among hawkish republicans heading into the 2002 midterms, this was outlined mostly by defence officials such as Rumsfeld and Rice but the President poked his head into the mix in the 2002 state of the union address made prior to the terror incidents, where the President mentioned the need “to create a coalition that represents freedom and halts the spread of evil”.[6]
The midterms loomed over the White House all through 2002, as a still-shaky economy and a stalled agenda ticked away at the Presidents and the Republicans' chances of holding on to the house and retaking the senate. The Enron scandal continued to haunt them bringing the Vice President under fire for the closed-door meetings he held with Enron execs and his office was forced to hand over records and emails to a senate panel. Democrats were all too happy to rake the notoriously oily vice president through the press. All while all the company’s criminal actions were also trotted through the press the phrase “what did the Vice-President know and when did he know it” was spoken more than a few times and though he managed to dodge any criminal accusations the public tended the believe that members of the administration had acted unethically with Enron
Vice President Cheney answers questions from the press
However, the Republicans managed a glimpse of light at the end of the tunnel when the Federal Reserve announced that it would postpone cutting rates indicating that the recession was coming to an end[7]. And finally following brutal negotiations the President's No Child Left Behind Act was passed by both houses in June providing a needed bipartisan boost. However, attempts by the Bush administration to push for more legislation became impossible as the election season took over.
[1] I don’t think I’m being too cynical to believe that without 9/11 these arrests would fail to capture the public imagination. The US had made terror arrests before and as the adage goes if it bleeds it leads and this story doesn’t bleed.
[2] No 9/11, no PATRIOT act, no indefinite detentions or pumped-up charges. Keeping it hard to prove anyone as an al-Qaida operative or associate
[3] TTL Al-Qaeda lacks the resources and outreach. Without the Hamburg cell who left for Chechnya, the plane plot lacks cohesion and spins its wheels until it's wrapped up by the police.
[4] This was done deliberately to prevent any leaks by attackers but instead leads the police to conclude that the attack was probably not imminent, having neither explosives assembled or flights purchased.
[5] The original plans for 9/11 did involve at least 1 plane being hijacked and used to issue manifesto/demands but was overruled by UBL. There is nothing to confirm but I feel as if Atef was mostly interested in the body count while KSM believed that the attacks needed to be symbolic
[6] Unlike the axis of evil speech, ITTL Bush drops no names and largely hints at a neo-liberal just war approach rather than the Bush doctrine we know
[7] The economic impact of 9/11 and the subsequent war on terror deepened economic woes and consumer confidence ITTL recovery starts around a year sooner so this is pretty major. Plus the defence budgets across the world don’t spike so all you deficit hawks have a little less to fear
Combatting Terror
The events of the failed Plane Plot hijackings and the failed implementation of Richard Reid’s plane bombing greatly concerned the apparatus of the US government. The idea that a dozen agents of foreign terrorist organisations had managed to conceal themselves in the country, (some for upwards of 2 years!) where they worked and trained towards such an ambitious attack was more than terrifying to many.
Plane Plot conspirators in court
Briefly, all hands were on deck, given the immediate danger and the possibilities of further cells still out there. The appearance of Richard Reid, weeks after the Jersey cell had been busted meant that more operatives could still be present and preparing further attacks. Nawaf Hazmi, a key ringleader of the plot was in the wind and still at large and more investigations needed to be done to investigate the financing, support network, and origins of the operation to unravel the tangled web of international terror.
While the events shook the halls of power, the public was left largely unaware of the full lengths of the plot and thus remained unconcerned with its danger. The announcement of the Jersey plotters arrest was devoid of the full details describing them simply as “8 Saudis with ties to foreign terror groups were arrested for supposedly preparing to hijack aircraft”. The hijackers at the time of arrest held neither explosives nor firearms further decreasing the perceived danger. The only threat the public knew of was Hazmi, who became the most wanted fugitive in the country. The public was far more interested in the Reid attack weeks later[1] (and a definitive connection between Reid and the Jersey cell was not made immediately) it was a tale that veered from thriller to farce with the media dubbing him the bathroom bomber evoking corny action movies. The public was neither frightened nor deterred by these failed attacks, and despite some efforts of the Bush administration to update stronger safety measures and increase passenger awareness on airlines, fears of harsh measures reducing passenger numbers during a tough time for the industry deflated these efforts. Congressional leadership was also briefed where they exchanged praise of the fine work of the nation’s intelligence agencies though Democrats and Republicans differed over the actual seriousness of the threat.
Lethal Weapon 2
Law enforcement took the immediate lead in the investigations confirming that Hazmi had left the United States for Spain months prior to the arrests in Jersey. Hazmi had left either to further coordinate the operation from abroad or had abandoned the plot entirely according to separate sources. No further cells were located inside the United States, though a list of suspicious individuals was compiled, and a few were even arrested (prominently American Imam, Anwar Al-Awlaki) though all were subsequently released.[2]
But if the administration really intended to get tough on terrorism it meant bringing the fight to the terrorists, arresting those responsible, and doing everything they could do to disrupt their operations. This was considerably tougher to implement than any domestic measures. Anti-American terrorists operated across a dozen nations, ignored, or aided by their anti-American host countries. US policy had been relegated to harsh words and sanctions (occasionally airstrikes) but the terror scare prompted an updated response. Afghanistan already identified as the hub for terrorist organisations would be tackled, more assistance and training would be provided to the Northern Alliance named Operation Mercury, while more pressure would be placed upon the Taliban and Pakistan to cease their support for Al-Qaida and its affiliates and hand over certain wanted men. The latter became difficult as the Bush administration rejected any negotiations, instead preferring external pressure. A military response akin to the one that killed Bin Laden was considered and the defence department began drafting targets (including both terrorist and Taliban infrastructure) but was unwilling to order an engagement until the investigation pinpointed which specific groups and which specific targets were available to strike. Some wanted to go further still to include the use of U.S. special forces to perform international raids to destroy terrorist camps, some wanted to take these missions further and use US forces to depose the Taliban regime altogether and replace them with the opposition (though this was deemed too extreme).
Operation Mercury (CIA are sent to coordinate with the Afghan Northern Alliance)
The investigation was vast, but a crude timeline was sketched together of the plot. Al-Qaeda leader Muhammed Atef and rogue terrorist Khalid Sheikh Mohammed began collaborating 3 years ago combining Atefs militants and training camps in Afghanistan with KSM’s money and connections. They sent attackers to the United States to take flight lessons and construct explosive devices. Atef and KSM also reached out to southeast Asian terror organisation JI for participation. However, the execution of the plot was continually delayed by the inability to attain sufficient visas, poor flight training performance and difficulty in constructing explosives (leading to Ressams introduction into the plot) contacted by Atef lieutenant Abu Zubaydah, a breakdown in leadership between Mazri and Midhar at some point occurred as well.[3] No final date for the actual attack could be surmised[4]. The FBI report gave a pitiful assessment of the competency and organisation of the cell members doubting that they had the capacity to successfully hold hostage even 1 aircraft, leading to their assumption that the plot's final objective was destruction rather than demands.[5] Richard Reids was a last-minute having arrived in the US months later than any other attacker and already provided with the explosive shoe and remained in Florida separate from the Jersey cell until his attack in April.
Mohammed Atef and Khalid Sheik Mohammed, Cheif architects of the 2002 Plane Plot
The fear of further attacks subsided and most of the White House resumed its pre-attack stance, agreeing with the FBI analysis dismissing the attackers as incompetents only good at blowing themselves up. Pending CIA/FBI updates there was little else to be done, but some officials didn’t see it that way they couldn’t return to business as usual and believed the US needed to be proactive. Vice President Cheney was one of them and he became reportedly obsessed with the threat of terrorism. Trained operatives spending years undercover? A plot of this magnitude couldn’t have been prepared solely by terrorists, it would require the sort of financing and direction only a nation could provide and only one nation came to mind. It was a theory that was shared amongst White House neo-cons that Saddam Hussein was in some way responsible for the attempted attack, to them it wasn’t the first of Saddam’s crimes, he held alleged connections to the 1993 bombing of the World Trade Centre, and the attempted assassination of George H W Bush. The intelligence agencies dismissed the claims but were ordered to investigate links into Saddam’s terror links anyway and the issue of Iraq persisted.
Saddam Hussein 2002
As well as the fear of terror, domestic politics are thought to have played a role in the shift of the US’s foreign policy. The Bush administration sought to sure up its support among hawkish republicans heading into the 2002 midterms, this was outlined mostly by defence officials such as Rumsfeld and Rice but the President poked his head into the mix in the 2002 state of the union address made prior to the terror incidents, where the President mentioned the need “to create a coalition that represents freedom and halts the spread of evil”.[6]
The midterms loomed over the White House all through 2002, as a still-shaky economy and a stalled agenda ticked away at the Presidents and the Republicans' chances of holding on to the house and retaking the senate. The Enron scandal continued to haunt them bringing the Vice President under fire for the closed-door meetings he held with Enron execs and his office was forced to hand over records and emails to a senate panel. Democrats were all too happy to rake the notoriously oily vice president through the press. All while all the company’s criminal actions were also trotted through the press the phrase “what did the Vice-President know and when did he know it” was spoken more than a few times and though he managed to dodge any criminal accusations the public tended the believe that members of the administration had acted unethically with Enron
Vice President Cheney answers questions from the press
However, the Republicans managed a glimpse of light at the end of the tunnel when the Federal Reserve announced that it would postpone cutting rates indicating that the recession was coming to an end[7]. And finally following brutal negotiations the President's No Child Left Behind Act was passed by both houses in June providing a needed bipartisan boost. However, attempts by the Bush administration to push for more legislation became impossible as the election season took over.
[1] I don’t think I’m being too cynical to believe that without 9/11 these arrests would fail to capture the public imagination. The US had made terror arrests before and as the adage goes if it bleeds it leads and this story doesn’t bleed.
[2] No 9/11, no PATRIOT act, no indefinite detentions or pumped-up charges. Keeping it hard to prove anyone as an al-Qaida operative or associate
[3] TTL Al-Qaeda lacks the resources and outreach. Without the Hamburg cell who left for Chechnya, the plane plot lacks cohesion and spins its wheels until it's wrapped up by the police.
[4] This was done deliberately to prevent any leaks by attackers but instead leads the police to conclude that the attack was probably not imminent, having neither explosives assembled or flights purchased.
[5] The original plans for 9/11 did involve at least 1 plane being hijacked and used to issue manifesto/demands but was overruled by UBL. There is nothing to confirm but I feel as if Atef was mostly interested in the body count while KSM believed that the attacks needed to be symbolic
[6] Unlike the axis of evil speech, ITTL Bush drops no names and largely hints at a neo-liberal just war approach rather than the Bush doctrine we know
[7] The economic impact of 9/11 and the subsequent war on terror deepened economic woes and consumer confidence ITTL recovery starts around a year sooner so this is pretty major. Plus the defence budgets across the world don’t spike so all you deficit hawks have a little less to fear
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Watching “Love Actually” right now (as I do every year) and it makes me think: in this TL, with a very different Bush admin, does Billy Bob Thornton’s character even exist? He’s such a product of his time as a plain pastiche of all of Clinton and Bush’s negative traits
The running past airport security part would make more sense though.
Oh, definitely. Always the most incongruent part of a movie that came out two years after 9/11 (I mean that more in terms of the time it was released; the movie is total nonsense and incongruent even if I love it)
I'm curious how the 2002 midterms would play out, along with the 2004 elections and the Hurricane Katrina response.
Plus, for TTL, movies about plane hijackings would probably continue. In OTL, 9/11 set this back by a generation as movies regarding plane hijackings were considered to be of poor taste.
Plus, for TTL, movies about plane hijackings would probably continue. In OTL, 9/11 set this back by a generation as movies regarding plane hijackings were considered to be of poor taste.
9/11 is odd that way. It shifted pop culture toward terrorism but away from specific 9/11 imagery for at least a decade
Shows like American Dad, 24, Madame Secretary, and every terrorist movie involving a Western setting were produced as a result of 9/11. South Park and Grand Theft Auto began poking stereotypes on Arabs and the patriotic American far-right.
In the video game industry, we'd have Call of Duty: Modern Warfare, Battlefield, SOCOM: U.S. Navy SEALs, and the arcade game Target: Terror are examples of such. Without 9/11, none of these games may see light or will come out in an unrecognizable form.
i think South Park would still mock the far-right due to the show changing over time into more politically oriented episodes though.
I heard that the creator of ''air force one'' said that if he worked on it post 9/11 the movie would never have been released
Some things will never change. South Park will still mock both the left and the right. However, their stereotyping of Arabs may not be seen here.
The character puppet Achmed the Dead Terrorist may also not exist.
Yeah, I could see Air Force One never make it if it was passed 9/11. Also before Air Force One, we had similar hijacking movies such as The Delta Force (1986) and Executive Decision (1996). The latter used Middle Eastern terrorists in hijacking a plane before 9/11 made it distasteful. The same too for True Lies (1994) which also had an Arab terrorist as the main antagonist.
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TTL probably won't have the film Team America: World Police either, which is a damn shame since that movie is glorious(ly silly).
So are intelligence agencies still on the lookout for KSM in the hopes of dropping a bomb on his head or has that opportunity largely passed? The man isn't likely to sit on his hands, maybe wait for the heat to die down a little.
So are intelligence agencies still on the lookout for KSM in the hopes of dropping a bomb on his head or has that opportunity largely passed? The man isn't likely to sit on his hands, maybe wait for the heat to die down a little.
