Geronimo : What if Osama Bin Laden was killed prior to 9/11?

This is a very interesting timeline. I have to assume that many airlines that OTL went bankrupt after 9/11 would at least survive a little longer and or recover in the early 2000s. Maybe TWA or Northwest Airlines don't go bankrupt and/or Alitalia is not a so disastrous situation as it was in OTL and successfully merges with AirFrance-KLM in 2007/2008.
I would like to point out some of my considerations:
  • it is very likely that ITTL Berlusconi would win the 2006 Italian elections since in OTL he lost by only 25.000 votes and a lot of his unpopularity came from his decision to deploy troops to Iraq. Apart from the successful saving of Alitalia, the Bridge over the Strait of Messina would not have been cancelled.
  • could we end up with a North Korea that disarms following a successful ending of the OTL 2003 negotiation and a nuclear-armed Libya following the decision of Gaddafi not to scrap his nuclear program over fears of US invasion following 9/11?
 
This is a very interesting timeline. I have to assume that many airlines that OTL went bankrupt after 9/11 would at least survive a little longer and or recover in the early 2000s. Maybe TWA or Northwest Airlines don't go bankrupt and/or Alitalia is not a so disastrous situation as it was in OTL and successfully merges with AirFrance-KLM in 2007/2008.
IDK, perhaps without the 9/11 attacks and the Irak war plus the SARS outbreak with their economical/financial consequences, would grant, at least to some of them, the necessary respite to be able, for at least survive a while longer.
Though, I think that should be noted that according to the industry executives the whole industry have had so many structural troubles as for that even without the OTL 9/11 fatal blow, many airlines would have their survival granted...

Giovanni Bisignani, the plain-speaking Italian who led the International Air Transport Association for a decade from 2002, said in his annual report of 2010 that the industry had lost nearly $50 billion in that decade. […]. Less than two years after the 9/11 attacks, Bisignani told airline bosses at the IATA annual meeting in June 2003: “Our industry has been hit by the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse. The successive impact of September 11, a world economic slowdown, Iraq and SARS has been devastating. Our industry was like the boxer who gets hit harder after every knockdown.” […]. “9/11 was one of a number of catalysts that drove industry restructuring at the time, but it did not change the ultimate direction of the business''. […] Believes Mark Dunkerley, who had taken the chief commercial officer role at Belgium’s Sabena just weeks prior to 9/11 and joined Hawaiian Airlines as president in 2002.
 
About Enron 's affaire... I wonder ITTL, with no 9/11 happening, with a focused Media attention how far reaching than OTL, would be the Press coverage/investigation of it and/or even more important, the political consequences... Not only for the Bush government or for his electoral hopes, but in terms of the US Congress legislative agenda...
And, also, if it would be possible to create the correct set of political circumstances that would allow, ITTL to harsher bills/regulations, (than OTL) to be passed/created...
You are absolutely right, Enron is the topic of the year meaning the Dems are going to attack a lot harder and the news coverage will attack the lack of regulation.
Here is a thing I made to illustrate it.

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2001 Time Person of the Year, Ken Lay
 
This is a very interesting timeline. I have to assume that many airlines that OTL went bankrupt after 9/11 would at least survive a little longer and or recover in the early 2000s.
The Airline industry was in trouble prior to 9/11 but the attacks and subsequent panic slashed it. I'll cover the economy in detail soon but the future is looking up.
  • it is very likely that ITTL Berlusconi would win the 2006 Italian elections since in OTL he lost by only 25.000 votes and a lot of his unpopularity came from his decision to deploy troops to Iraq. Apart from the successful saving of Alitalia, the Bridge over the Strait of Messina would not have been cancelled.
  • could we end up with a North Korea that disarms following a successful ending of the OTL 2003 negotiation and a nuclear-armed Libya following the decision of Gaddafi not to scrap his nuclear program over fears of US invasion following 9/11?
North Korea and Libya are tricky ones, a part of me thinks that North Korea would never back down from pursuing nuclear aims and that Gaddafi's nuclear aims were ridiculous but I am open to any and all possibilities and look forward to researching them. As for Italy, any member of the coalition of the willing will be seriously effected.
 
so, i just re-read this now since i was half asleep the first time (night shifts can be dreadful).
regarding the paragraphs about the vote recount and Enron, i wonder how it will effect the 2004 elections. though this is probably a spoiler.
US politics are severely altered (and could go a dozen ways), it's night and day between pre and post 9/11. It is especially responsible for the massive burst of patriotism, jingoism, nationalism, and militarism that still effects the world today. Basically why I wrote the timeline
 
So how's Turkey doing with their war of terror? Saddam protected the PKK given their mutual Kurdish, western and Israeli enemies but it's clear the US does not care about about creating a Kurdish state as feared in the 2000s, well for now so it leaves them as the only legitimate (ignore the Syrian, Iranian, Iraqi agents in the background) Kurdish group trying to fight for independence.

Syria I think doing quite well in this timeline with a US more concerned with itself, getting closer to the day Lebanon can be swallowed into it.
For the time, Turkey will maintain its status quo of continued border excursions into demilitarised northern Iraq. Saddam hated Turkey but knew that attacking would spark a 2nd Gulf War (and who would want such a thing).

As for Syria, we'll just have to see if it can actually end up worse than OTL
 
This is a very interesting timeline. I have to assume that many airlines that OTL went bankrupt after 9/11 would at least survive a little longer and or recover in the early 2000s. Maybe TWA or Northwest Airlines don't go bankrupt and/or Alitalia is not a so disastrous situation as it was in OTL and successfully merges with AirFrance-KLM in 2007/2008.
I would like to point out some of my considerations:
  • it is very likely that ITTL Berlusconi would win the 2006 Italian elections since in OTL he lost by only 25.000 votes and a lot of his unpopularity came from his decision to deploy troops to Iraq. Apart from the successful saving of Alitalia, the Bridge over the Strait of Messina would not have been cancelled.
  • could we end up with a North Korea that disarms following a successful ending of the OTL 2003 negotiation and a nuclear-armed Libya following the decision of Gaddafi not to scrap his nuclear program over fears of US invasion following 9/11?
IIRC TWA was absorbed into AA pre-9/11 (or at least it was in the works). It could be interesting to explore what happens if post-POD they go with America West instead in Feb of 01
 
For the time, Turkey will maintain its status quo of continued border excursions into demilitarised northern Iraq. Saddam hated Turkey but knew that attacking would spark a 2nd Gulf War (and who would want such a thing).

As for Syria, we'll just have to see if it can actually end up worse than OTL
Syria will be interesting, as the CIA will no paying them for black sites and view them as a vital partner, but I think without the US presence their far less likely to ever leave Lebanon.

However given over half of Syria's currently refuges, at least half a million died and countless people have disappeared it will be interesting how it get's worse.
 
However given over half of Syria's currently refuges, at least half a million died and countless people have disappeared it will be interesting how it get's worse.
It’s hard to imagine worse all things considered. Unless it’s a repeat of the Iran-Iraq war that then turns into a descent into anarchy a la OTL.
 
There could be real consequences here for California and Schwarzenegger if the Enron situation worsening for Bush manages to butterfly the 2003 Recall...
 
Syria I think doing quite well in this timeline with a US more concerned with itself, getting closer to the day Lebanon can be swallowed into it.
As for Syria, we'll just have to see if it can actually end up worse than OTL
Syria will be interesting, as the CIA will no paying them for black sites and view them as a vital partner, but I think without the US presence their far less likely to ever leave Lebanon.
I think that, on any possible analysis/speculation on the TTL Syria situation and particularly Lebanon future, that either Iran (through proxies) and even after their recent withdrawal that Israel, too, kept interests there... Given that, I think that could be possibly argued that an ITTL full Syrian occupation and annexation of the Lebanon, could menace/'d react to them...
 
I think that, on any possible analysis/speculation on the TTL Syria situation and particularly Lebanon future, that either Iran (through proxies) and even after their recent withdrawal that Israel, too, kept interests there... Given that, I think that could be possibly argued that an ITTL full Syrian occupation and annexation of the Lebanon, could menace/'d react to them...
I agree. If the U.S. went to war over Kuwait, it would over Lebanon too. Thus, a Syrian puppet regime is likelier with maybe a Putin/Lukashenko-type relationship being forged.
 
Looks like the present day situation (a half dozen competing fundamentalist organizations seeking to out-psycho each other) 20 years earlier.

This is going to be... interesting, for sure.
 
I agree. If the U.S. went to war over Kuwait, it would over Lebanon too. Thus, a Syrian puppet regime is likelier with maybe a Putin/Lukashenko-type relationship being forged.
I disagree, Lebanon's not that important compared to Kuwait given the oil and Syria was more trying for a more gradual process of absorption, tbh I figure it will happen say 2010s.

Though tbh maybe Syria would keep Lebanon around for the Banks given their not under sanctions for terrorism and as a base for their projects like the PKK and drug smuggling ect, that way Syria get's all the benefits and non of the drawbacks and even if it's unofficially run from Damarcus.
 
Part II
The next day


The reaction to the previous day's strikes was mixed. US lawmakers roundly supported the strike and applauded the death of Osama Bin Laden. Speaker Gingrich said “This was the right thing to do, Bin Laden was a murderer and needed to go” But some Republicans also raised concerns of the Presidents intentions, that perhaps the strikes were also designed to distract the public from the Monica Lewinsky affair and frequent comparisons to Wag the Dog were abound (A film where a president uses a fictional foreign war to distract from a sex scandal). If that were the objective it had mixed results. The strikes and the accompanying news of Bin Ladens death were heavily covered by the media when polled nearly 90% of Americans said they had followed the story closely and overwhelmingly supported the presidents actions over 80 percent in favour. Indeed for most Americans it was the first and last day they would hear about Osama Bin Laden. However upwards of 40% of Americans pinned the Presidents actions to the Monica Lewinsky scandal, and Clintons good news would have little effect on his poll numbers he received a 5 point bump that week however it had entirely faded by September and the release of the Ken Starr report. [1]

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Wag The Dog
The administration spent the day revelling in its victory. Secretary Albright and Cohen gave a joint press conference where they gave the run down on Bin Laden. Describing him as “A terrorist, with the fullest intentions to kill Americans and innocent people wherever they can find them” Said Albright. Reporters asked just how successful the strikes were in Afghanistan but still the full picture was not available, Cohen was only able to confirm that “much damage has been done, the extent is yet to be determined but as per information a terrorist meeting was struck and numerous leaders including Bin Laden were killed”

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Secretaries Albright and Cohen. Speak on the death of Osama Bin Laden


Clinton himself briefly spoke via radio address, declaring that “The United States efforts against terrorism will not begin and end with a single man, or a single strike” And called his death “Justice for the destruction he sewed and the death he brought”

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President Clintons Radio Address

Internationally the reaction was worse, while the US’s traditional allies, Britain, Australia, Germany and Israel were largely supportive. Others were sceptical of the US’s reasoning and unilateral action such as France and then there were those against it, the most outraged was of course the Taliban government in Afghanistan, the group accused by the US for harbouring Bin Laden. Its leader Mullah Omar (who had a close relationship with Bin Laden) released a screed which denounced the United States for its “Assassination” and hailed Bin Laden as a martyr and that the “The strength of the Islamic world will not be weakened” despite the deep sadness. It was potentially the first third party confirmation of Bin Ladens death as Al-Qaeda had yet to comment on the strikes officially. Similar reactions were shared by Islamic organisations across the globe including Hamas, the Islamic Brotherhood in Egypt and Hezbollah several even swore to avenge his death.

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Taliban Leader Mullah Omar

Sudan’s president Omar El-Bashir was similar to Omar in his anger, issuing vague threats to “respond to the American attack using all necessary measures”. El-Bashir denied any accusations that the plant was being used to produce chemical weapons. The anger and pain in Sudan was high. the Al-Shifa plant was hit at approximately 5.30PM Sudanese time and was totally destroyed, with the workday only having just ended 85 workers were still present and killed in the strike while hundreds of others were injured. The outrage led the Sudanese government to pull its diplomats from Washington and gave an ultimatum to the US’s allies to withdraw support from the attack or have their diplomats expelled which it did so with Britain and Australia. Arab leaders supported El-Bashir, including Muammar al-Gaddafi who led one of the many anti US rallies that day, Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei who denied any usage of the chemical plant, and Pakistani officials who had received literal last-minute notice of the strikes, verbally attacked the US for illegally using its and Afghanistan’s air space and claimed that a missile hit a Pakistani village and killed half a dozen Pakistanis.

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Anti US protest in Sudan

Indeed by the 22nd it seemed the only reaction no one had heard from was Al-Qaeda the supposed target. The reason was paralysis. US intelligence was partially correct regarding the Afghanistan strike there was indeed a meeting of Al-Qaeda on the day of the attack though it was not as large or as high level as US intelligence believed. Neither had the strike coincided with the meeting instead it took place during evening prayers and one of the first buildings to be destroyed within the complex was the Mosque which Bin Laden and a select few associates had been attending at the time of the strike. The US estimated that around 100 militants had been killed in the attack though other than Bin Laden confirmation of other Al-Qaeda fatalities was far slower. The US believed they confirmed the death of Said Al-Adl (Mohammed Ibrahim Makkawi) a chief Al-Qaeda military leader. Saeed al-Masri, Al-Qaedas financial chief. Abu Jandal (Nasser al-Bahri) one of Bin Laden"s bodyguards/lieutenants. And a few other notable members including Abd al-Rahim al-Nashiri a relative of an embassy bomber, and Abu Basir a Yemeni secretary to Bin Laden. [2]

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The other dead (Left to Right) Said Al-Adl Saeed al-Masri, Abu Jandal, Abd al-Rahim al Nashiri

A complete casualty list would never be possible and several that were presumed killed in the strike resurfaced years later most notably Osama’s deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri who the CIA believed was dead for 2 years turned out to be in Kabul at the time of the strike. And Abu Zubaydah who ran a training camp was possibly injured but not fatally in the attack.

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Abu Zubaydah (left) One of Bin Laden's top lieutenants and heir apparent.

Later examinations of the strike’s success have uncovered mixed results 20 percent of the missiles had little to no impact at all some failing to detonate altogether. Neither was the complex totally destroyed, unlike the Sudanese plant. Far from the decapitation that Clinton had been pitched most who were present at the camp were not Al-Qaida leadership and most present had not been killed.

Though did any of this matter? casualties were relatively few, but the cost was high. The organisations founder was dead, and without him, as the CIA’s prediction read the organisation was supposedly doomed. Alec Station (the Bin Laden desk) effectively closed following Bin Laden's death, and there was no intended follow-up to the strikes, all were convinced that the organisation would collapse like a “house of cards” as per CIA head George Tenet. President Clinton who begrudgingly ordered the strikes expressed little belief himself that Al-Qaeda was much of a threat. The former head of Alec Station Michael Scheuer wrote that. “After Bin Laden, the blinders went back up, we (Alec station) wanted to press on and finish off what was left of Al-Qaeda, but instead they shut us down”.[3]

[1] Domestically the death of Bin Laden has little effect now at least. Osama Bin Laden was barely a blip on the public radar and would certainly see this as the sideshow to Lewinsky.
[2] It's impossible to know what members of Al-Qaeda were where when. Hell if the CIA couldn't do it. So here is a mix of UBL close associates and a few wrong place wrong timers.
[3] I see the CIA and the US, in general, to have been incredibly naive of Al-Qaeda who since 9/11 many have attempted to rewrite themselves as geniuses who saw the whole thing coming. Tenet gets the shaft here.

Hi. I'll try to update when I can every few days if possible. I like to write these on the fly no planning, chaos theory in action. See you next time.
the pic you posted of bin laden as az-zawahiri labelled as abu zubaydah btw
 
I disagree, Lebanon's not that important compared to Kuwait given the oil and Syria was more trying for a more gradual process of absorption, tbh I figure it will happen say 2010s.

Though tbh maybe Syria would keep Lebanon around for the Banks given their not under sanctions for terrorism and as a base for their projects like the PKK and drug smuggling ect, that way Syria get's all the benefits and non of the drawbacks and even if it's unofficially run from Damarcus.
There is no precedent after World War II for one state absorbing another by force and those before the war directly contributed to it.
 
There is no precedent after World War II for one state absorbing another by force and those before the war directly contributed to it.
Timor and Indonesia is a example, though I mean North Vietnam absorbing South. The SSNP is a Lebanese party seeks to integrate Lebanon into Syria today, their can be elections for it, definitely won't be fair but it can happen in a democratic process, similar to South Sudan breaking happened a state could expand like North Vietnam.

Though it will likely mess up relations with Iran, but Syria's path is still undermined yet for now.
 
Timor and Indonesia is a example, though I mean North Vietnam absorbing South. The SSNP is a Lebanese party seeks to integrate Lebanon into Syria today, their can be elections for it, definitely won't be fair but it can happen in a democratic process, similar to South Sudan breaking happened a state could expand like North Vietnam.

Though it will likely mess up relations with Iran, but Syria's path is still undermined yet for now.
East Timor does not really count as it was hardly independent long enough for anyone to recognize it. You may as well be arguing Goa counts.
 
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