Part IX
Enduring Freedom
Bush hoped that his trip to Florida would jumpstart his education plan and boost his domestic agenda, unfortunately the year did not pan out that way. Despite the Federal Reserve’s rosy predictions of the U.S. economy, the nation remained in recession for the remainder of 2001, negotiations over his education bill continued to move at paint drying speed and his popularity continued its slow decline going below 50% approval for the first time in late September.
President Bush speaks on the economy
The President's honeymoon period (if it ever existed) was over by years' end. Bush was dogged by two national scandals. The first, the pervading belief among many Americans that it had been the Supreme Court and not the voters, that had elected Bush the 43rd president. It was a favourite topic of the Presidents’ critics, and the lack of a full official recount allowed the media to speculate and investigate for itself. Dozens of so-called ‘media recounts’ were conducted, each assessing the vote in Florida. Most outlets revealed little new information and rarely made definitive statements on the elections ‘
true victor’. In May, the newspapers
USA Today and the
Miami Herald gave unsatisfying results, bouncing back and forth, listing all the different scenarios in which either Bush or Gore could have won the election depending on how strictly or loosely Florida election law was interpreted, turning the election into a choose your own adventure.
Gore supporters protesting
But in November the largest analysis funded by the 8 of the nation’s biggest news outlets released their report. The results showed (described differently by each article) that with all votes counted, it was Gore that held the advantage over Bush. The results were more definitive than anything previous but still they each stressed how under different rulesets Bush could have edged out Gore. The result was a victory for Gore supporters and a tough blow for Republicans as the report crowded the news cycle. The headlines varied; New York Times -
Study of Florida Ballots disputes the Final Decision, Washington Post -
Florida Recounts may have favored Gore and CNN.com -
Florida Recount Study: Gore had the votes.
[1] The articles were critical of the Justice’s decision as well as the confusion and mishandling in Florida that skewed the results. The Presidents advocates were quick to emphasise that the report also poked holes in Gore's legal case that may have resulted in a Bush victory regardless of the count, but those arguments weren’t as strong outside of a courtroom. The White House made no comment on the report continuing its rule of shrugging off these types of questions as bitter partisan attacks or a desperate press corp. The one man who did comment was former Vice President Al Gore, speaking publicly for the first time since his concession he called the results of the analysis “
interesting” and spoke about the need for “
a complete reform of our ballot process”.
Former Vice President Gore speaks following his concession
The second millstone around the Presidents neck was the big E, Enron. An energy company, Enron had once been the 7th largest business in America. However, as scepticism grew over its business practices and a strong suspicion that its stock was overvalued. Speculation over corruption, bribery, and greed increased through 2001, in response the stock fell rapidly. Through 2001, Enron's Stock fell to 1 dollar from its 90 dollar high the previous year, it became clear that the company was a sinking ship but the rats made sure to escape with millions of dollars worth of stock (sold prior to the collapse) and large bonuses. The blatant self-dealing occurred while thousands of employees, shareholders, and retirees lost everything. In the aftermath of the company’s bankruptcy, the depths of its sins were revealed, showing a systematised network of fraud.
Enron logo in front of its building
All this could have remained a business issue if it weren’t for Enron’s cosy political ties. These ties were especially strong with the Bush family and George W’s administration. CEO and Chairman of Enron, Kenneth Lay, was a close friend of the family and had even been considered for the Secretary of Energy position in the cabinet. Lay and Enron also made donations to Bush’s legislative and presidential runs. In turn, Enron received unusual levels of access to the President, including high-level meetings to discuss U.S. energy and economic policy and multiple Enron alumni found employment in the administration. The Democrats jumped at the chance to attack the President and his allies, they sued for documents, demanded hearings, and pressed for criminal investigations to expose the depths of Enron’s duplicity with the side benefit of publicly embarrassing Bush’s entourage in the process. Bush tried to sidestep the issue claiming that all his dealings with Enron were proper and that he had no role in its internal business practices, unfortunately, the public was sceptical and agreed with congresses decision to hold hearings to publicly reveal Enron’s misdeeds.
[2]
CEO and Chairman of Enron with George Bush
The worst event of W's first year came on November 12th, 2001, when American Airlines flight 587 crashed shortly into its flight from New York to the Dominican Republic, killing all passengers and crew (281 in total) as well as 5 on the ground
[3]. It was the deadliest event in American aviation history. An investigation into the tragedy revealed no evidence of foul play (there was some interest shown by the national security who feared that a terror network was preparing some form of hijackings, but no connection could be made). The President spoke,
“The people of New York have suffered tonight, and the nation suffers with them” The crash hit the people of New York City hard especially its Dominican segment where the flight was a fixture of the community. On invitation, mayor Giuliani and mayor-elect Mark Green
[4] flew to the Dominican Republic to meet with the grieving families.
(Left) Flight 587 crash site. (Right)108th Mayor of New York City Mark Green
As the administration dealt with the economy, the election, Enron, and soothing the national psyche, its legislative agenda continued to lag. Despite the Democratic leadership's backing, the details of the No Child Left Behind Act continued to elude congress through 2001 and a big blow was dealt toward the entire agenda when SenatorTed Kennedy and several sceptical Democrats insisted on further provisions to ensure proper enforcement of the bill
[5]. Negotiations were tough and slow.
Combining the tragedies, scandals, and stalling. Bush's first year had been a slow one but his administration hoped to get back on track in 2002. Officials reminded each other of Bill Clinton's unglamorous first year and were eager to press forward.
While Bush prepared to rejuvenate his agenda, across the world Mullah Omar, spiritual leader of Taliban-controlled Afghanistan, prepared to destroy his remaining adversaries in Afghanistan the so-called ‘Northern Alliance’.
2001, Taliban military parade
The now 5-year civil was about to enter a brutal stage, Omar desperate to destroy his enemies prepared a major offensive against the remaining 10% of the country the Northern Alliance controlled, with Pakistani and militant aid enabled through its hard-line policies
[6] and embrace of jihadist rhetoric, Omar believed the Taliban to be in a position to take full control of the country
[7]. The Northern Alliance in comparison, struggled for aid, despite military leader Ahmad Shad Massoud being praised as the
“hope of liberty for Afghanistan” the Alliance found few backers willing to throw more money and guns into the seemingly endless conflict. Its greatest backer was India (keen to counter Pakistan) who provided helicopters and medical aid to fighters. But aside from India, only Afghanistan’s direct neighbours Tajikistan and Iran provided continual basic assistance to their cause. This changed in mid-2000 when a shift in the Russian and U.S. defence occurred. In reaction to the Taliban’s embrace of the former Bin Laden network and the ongoing Chechen conflict, the 2 countries began to see the Taliban’s Afghanistan as an existential threat and reached out to offer Massoud a hand
[8]. The relationship didn’t extend far, but it was the beginning that Massoud hoped for. He believed that with enough foreign backing the Taliban would burn through its militants and its remaining public support trying to fight him, leading to its collapse, all the Alliance had to do was hold out long enough. Massoud would never admit it, but he was the alliances linchpin, his knowledge and history made him the ‘lion of Panjshir ’ and the renowned leader of the anti-Taliban resistance, who would heroically fight on and dodge assassination attempts with ease
[9]. The offensive began at the beginning of December (a date supposedly that came to Omar in a dream) and the battle for Afghanistan raged on.
(Left) Northern Alliance military leader Ahmed Massoud. (Right) Afghan civil war as of December, 2001
[1] The report is essentially the same as OTL, but it is framed around the context of a less than popular administration without a national crisis occurring that makes election talk uncomfortable in the media.
[2] Enron is very much the scandal that wasn’t with everything kicking off just as the focus of the world was abruptly drawn away.
[3] Higher casualties due to the lack of post 9/11 fear
[4] Without the post 9/11, Giuliani’s endorsement Bloomberg loses to Green by a reversed outcome 55 45 Green Bloomberg
[5] 9/11 certainly didn’t lead to the No Child Left Behind Act but legislators would be more than happy to continue butting heads over it
[6] The Bamiyan Buddhas still get destroyed, a damn shame.
[7] The Taliban and Omar are incredibly unpredictable, but this seems like a no brainer, the assassination of Massoud OTL shows that this remained their top priority
[8] Bush’s complaints about swatting flies, showed that he wanted a larger-scale plan to combat terrorism, plus the CIA wanted for years to start backing Massoud only to be shot down by Clinton.
[9] Al-Qaeda’s schism means they don’t have the resources or independence to pull of the OTL assassination
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