France if Germany wins WW1

[Friedrich der Große]

If Germany wins WW1 by a successfull Schlieffen Plan (so a faster war), what will happen to France?

How will the political system develop? Is there a continue of the Republic, a large red revolution (Paris Commune XL) or maybe some far-right regime change by for example the Action Française?

And in addition, will the regime be able to fight another war against Germany in the future? Even if this war goes as the Battle of France in OTL WW2 (Le Débacle)?

 

[Michel Van]

The third republic will end in chaos
A Paris Commune XL will not happen, but let to rise of Communist in France.
Far-right was never a political force in interwar time, the Communist were political more powerful.
Also will play anti-Semitism more violent role in post war time,
France had strong anti-Semitism culture and after Germans won the War, the french look for scapegoat to blame: The Jews !
With Great Depression it will get worser for french Jews, There will wave of jewish refugee out France during 1920s and 1930s.

Also let the economic crisis to final down fall of third or fourth republic and the rise of the communist People Republic of France.
But that more Stalinist system that eliminate their political and ideological enemies in France,
Like demolish of churches and seize the possession of Catholic church.

On long term, there will be War with France and Germany,
They could ally with Soviet union (if exist) to attack simultaneous the German Empire and face another debacle as angry German Blitzkrieg into France...

This is part of TL: The Free Republic of Outermeuse

The Free Republic of Outremeuse

This is new TL by me It's the history of tiny nation who was overlook by the Great Powers and manage to surivive Two World Wars and the cold war every Friday comes new post

www.alternatehistory.com

 

[Friedrich der Große]

The third republic will end in chaos
A Paris Commune XL will not happen, but let to rise of Communist in France.
Far-right was never a political force in interwar time, the Communist were political more powerful.

Well it was a political force (think on the riots of February 1934). The communists were much stronger indeed but the difference is that France and its allies won WW1 but it was a very different war than ITTL when France is knocked out quick. This combined with very much revanchism in France could lead to a large far-right movement, right? Oh if so I think the French elite will support the far-right more than the communits, like in Weimar Germany OTL.

Also will play anti-Semitism more violent role in post war time,
France had strong anti-Semitism culture and after Germans won the War, the french look for scapegoat to blame: The Jews !
With Great Depression it will get worser for french Jews,

If the Great Depression will even happen.

There will wave of jewish refugee out France during 1920s and 1930s.

Also let the economic crisis to final down fall of third or fourth republic and the rise of the communist People Republic of France.
But that more Stalinist system that eliminate their political and ideological enemies in France,
Like demolish of churches and seize the possession of Catholic church.

On long term, there will be War with France and Germany,
They could ally with Soviet union (if exist) to attack simultaneous the German Empire and face another debacle as angry German Blitzkrieg into France...

Soviet Union won’t exist ITTL I think.

This is part of TL: The Free Republic of Outermeuse

The Free Republic of Outremeuse

This is new TL by me It's the history of tiny nation who was overlook by the Great Powers and manage to surivive Two World Wars and the cold war every Friday comes new post

www.alternatehistory.com

 

[Hugh Third of Five]

On long term, there will be War with France and Germany,

France would have lost two major wars in a row to Germany. I don't think they'd be looking to try for three time's the charm.

 

[Michel Van]

Well it was a political force (think on the riots of February 1934). The communists were much stronger indeed but the difference is that France and its allies won WW1 but it was a very different war than ITTL when France is knocked out quick. This combined with very much revanchism in France could lead to a large far-right movement, right? Oh if so I think the French elite will support the far-right more than the communits, like in Weimar Germany OTL.

I talk with French about this, they all say that far right were not real political power, more like weekend Warriors, those group disintegrate after failing in elections.
While french Communist party rise in popularity.

France would have lost two major wars in a row to Germany. I don't think they'd be looking to try for three time's the charm.

That is good point !

In TL: The Free Republic of Outermeuse
There is People Republic of France and Union of Soviets Socialist Republics (note Stalin is dead here and more brutal General rules over USSR)
Both communist Nation have one ideological enemy: The great german Reich between PRF and USSR
So both make plans for War were France attack Germany while USSR invade from East over Poland.
Idea is while the Germans are busy dealing with French, the soviets give the dead blow
The French Communist leader knew that France would fail again, but it would give Soviets time, so they consider as sacrifice for Communism.
And order the use of poison gas on civilians targets in west offensive, to make Maximum damage in Germany.

The 1941 communist offensive fail, the soviets force stuck in Poland and polish army can hold them until German Army arrive.
While the french attack over Belgium, Netherlander, Swiss into Germany, using mustard gas on german cities like Lüttich or Ruhr district.
Germany Army can stop the french faster as plan and a alliance Belgium, Netherlands, Swiss and Germany invade France...

 

[Friedrich der Große]

I talk with French about this, they all say that far right were not real political power, more like weekend Warriors, those group disintegrate after failing in elections.
While french Communist party rise in popularity.

But again, that is in OTL. ITTL we have a very different war and different outcome. For example look at Germany. Well if they win WW1 in my scenario the far-right will not be a strong force I think. But if they loose the war as IOTL, far-right became a stronger force, even in the 1920s (look at the 1924 election). Couldn’t we see something similar in France ITTL.

That is good point !

In TL: The Free Republic of Outermeuse
There is People Republic of France and Union of Soviets Socialist Republics (note Stalin is dead here and more brutal General rules over USSR)
Both communist Nation have one ideological enemy: The great german Reich between PRF and USSR
So both make plans for War were France attack Germany while USSR invade from East over Poland.
Idea is while the Germans are busy dealing with French, the soviets give the dead blow
The French Communist leader knew that France would fail again, but it would give Soviets time, so they consider as sacrifice for Communism.
And order the use of poison gas on civilians targets in west offensive, to make Maximum damage in Germany.

The 1941 communist offensive fail, the soviets force stuck in Poland and polish army can hold them until German Army arrive.
While the french attack over Belgium, Netherlander, Swiss into Germany, using mustard gas on german cities like Lüttich or Ruhr district.
Germany Army can stop the french faster as plan and a alliance Belgium, Netherlands, Swiss and Germany invade France...

 

[marathag]

I don't see Germany taking any French territory in Europe. They got what they wanted last time, in 1871.
Loss of Colonies, that's another thing.

 

[Tanc49]

Well it was a political force (think on the riots of February 1934). The communists were much stronger indeed but the difference is that France and its allies won WW1 but it was a very different war than ITTL when France is knocked out quick. This combined with very much revanchism in France could lead to a large far-right movement, right? Oh if so I think the French elite will support the far-right more than the communits, like in Weimar Germany OTL.

Oh yeah, everybody will be thinking the Dreyfusards and their ilk were the ones who destroyed the country and its army.
Cue return of the Church & Army duopole, to prepare for the next one. Maybe even a king.

 

[Friedrich der Große]

I don't see Germany taking any French territory in Europe. They got what they wanted last time, in 1871.
Loss of Colonies, that's another thing.

They will at least take the Longwy-Briey region as mentioned in the Septemberprogramm.

 

[Friedrich der Große]

Oh yeah, everybody will be thinking the Dreyfusards and their ilk were the ones who destroyed the country and its army.
Cue return of the Church & Army duopole, to prepare for the next one. Maybe even a king.

Or Emperor . It is guesswork who will be more popular: Bonaparte or Bourbon (/Orleans). This division is another advantage for the communists. If even the right on itself is divided it will be impossible anyway to overthrow the Republic.

Maybe that it is even possible that Germany starts the next war if the radical clique of Ludendorff, Tirpitz etc. are in charge.

 

[Michel Van]

I don't see Germany taking any French territory in Europe. They got what they wanted last time, in 1871.
Loss of Colonies, that's another thing.

France had to give french Territory to Germany and Belgium !
Original planned were
area of Vireux-Molhain to Les Hautes-Rivières to became part of Belgium (happen during 1914-1918)
area around Morfontaine because of raw material, to become part of Luxemburg (as part of German Empire)

On French Colonies this look more drastic
in Africa the German Empire wanted to Create "Mittleafrika" by united German colonies with British, French and Belgium Congo
i think that Germany take more realistic Approach and create a smaller Mittleafrika

Also will Germany take several french Island all over the World , to use them as refuel Base for German Navy.

On Asia Germany want also Indochina, but that more question of Timing.
How take control first, Germany or Japan, who profit of situation that French can't not defend it colonies.
That goes also for french, Guyana what Brazil desire and other colonies !
I would not be surprised if Britain take some French Colonies over as protectorate, to keep them out hand of Germany, Japan and others...

 

[Tanc49]

Or Emperor . It is guesswork who will be more popular: Bonaparte or Bourbon (/Orleans). This division is another advantage for the communists. If even the right on itself is divided it will be impossible anyway to overthrow the Republic.

Maybe that it is even possible that Germany starts the next war if the radical clique of Ludendorff, Tirpitz etc. are in charge.

Not sure if there was any strong Bonapartiste sentiment at this time.
For example, today, in 2023, you still have monarchists. Not many, but they exist. They do fight between Orleanists or Legitimists but they're still around.
Bonapartists do not exist.

Nap III is the Defeat at this point, I don't think you'd want to reinstate the line that lost against Germany that time after you lost again in round 2

 

[Friedrich der Große]

France had to give french Territory to Germany and Belgium !
Original planned were
area of Vireux-Molhain to Les Hautes-Rivières to became part of Belgium (happen during 1914-1918)
area around Morfontaine because of raw material, to become part of Luxemburg (as part of German Empire)

On French Colonies this look more drastic
in Africa the German Empire wanted to Create "Mittleafrika" by united German colonies with British, French and Belgium Congo
i think that Germany take more realistic Approach and create a smaller Mittleafrika

Also will Germany take several french Island all over the World , to use them as refuel Base for German Navy.

On Asia Germany want also Indochina, but that more question of Timing.

Indochina? Is that realistic?

How take control first, Germany or Japan, who profit of situation that French can't not defend it colonies.
That goes also for french, Guyana what Brazil desire and other colonies !
I would not be surprised if Britain take some French Colonies over as protectorate, to keep them out hand of Germany, Japan and others...

 

[Friedrich der Große]

Not sure if there was any strong Bonapartiste sentiment at this time.
For example, today, in 2023, you still have monarchists. Not many, but they exist. They do fight between Orleanists or Legitimists but they're still around.
Bonapartists do not exist.

Nap III is the Defeat at this point, I don't think you'd want to reinstate the line that lost against Germany that time after you lost again in round 2

Agreed. Will the Action Française be the strongest movement then? I doubt it that its leader Charles Maurras has the qualities.

 

[Michel Van]

Indochina? Is that realistic?

it was on Wishlist of Wilhelm II.
but it more realistic that empire of Japan take over Indochina as protectorate, since the french were unable to defend it.
before the German navy can reach Indochina

Will the Action Française be the strongest movement then? I doubt it that its leader Charles Maurras has the qualities.

The downfall of Action Francaise is direct result of Charles Maurras,
He was extrem in conservatism policy, next anti-Semitism,
demanded the return to monarchy, objecting to the legacy of the French Revolution and Install Roman Catholicism as a state religion in France.
In Short Maurras, wanted to return to 18 century France under rule of kings Louis of Bourbon!

That was very unpopular in France:
The monarchy was consider responsible of France biggest crisis , like Louis XVI or XIX and Napoleon III downfall of 1870.
The French Revolution of 1789 is consider as major event in History, by overthrow the aristocrats oppressor and common people take control of state.
The separation of State and Church establish by Revolution, is consider by Frenchs as achievement of democracy and liberty.

French voters consider that Catholicism is not compatible with democracy and regarded Action française as rampart of religion and extreme nationalism!
it went even so far that Pope Pius XI public condemned Action française and put Charles Maurras books on the Index Librorum Prohibitorum in 1927.
Members of Action française were prohibited from receiving the sacraments by the Church !

And from here french Catholic voters ignored from then the Action française...

 

[Autochrome]

Any remote chance that the Third Republic could survive the aftermath of the war?

 

[Friedrich der Große]

it was on Wishlist of Wilhelm II.
but it more realistic that empire of Japan take over Indochina as protectorate, since the french were unable to defend it.
before the German navy can reach Indochina


The downfall of Action Francaise is direct result of Charles Maurras,
He was extrem in conservatism policy, next anti-Semitism,
demanded the return to monarchy, objecting to the legacy of the French Revolution and Install Roman Catholicism as a state religion in France.
In Short Maurras, wanted to return to 18 century France under rule of kings Louis of Bourbon!

That was very unpopular in France:
The monarchy was consider responsible of France biggest crisis , like Louis XVI or XIX and Napoleon III downfall of 1870.
The French Revolution of 1789 is consider as major event in History, by overthrow the aristocrats oppressor and common people take control of state.
The separation of State and Church establish by Revolution, is consider by Frenchs as achievement of democracy and liberty.

French voters consider that Catholicism is not compatible with democracy and regarded Action française as rampart of religion and extreme nationalism!
it went even so far that Pope Pius XI public condemned Action française and put Charles Maurras books on the Index Librorum Prohibitorum in 1927.
Members of Action française were prohibited from receiving the sacraments by the Church !

And from here french Catholic voters ignored from then the Action française...

Again, you assume the OTL situation. A chaotic, economically total weak republic with radical political sentiments is totally different from the OTL Interbellum France which you are talking about.

The TTL France lost two wars in a row against Germany with a respectively bonapartist and liberal-democratic political system. So not strange to assume that much Frenchmen want radical (authoritarian) change to get back their glory (as did much Germans in the Weimar Republic). Why wouldn’t the AF give a vote to this electorate?

 

[Riain]

They will at least take the Longwy-Briey region as mentioned in the Septemberprogramm.

Not necessarily, the German public was more interested in territory in the east rather than the west. The big aim in the west was open access to world markets without punitive trade barriers. Colonial territory would be sufficient for Germany as the gains from France, as long as the alliance system is broken up, the territory gains in the east are accepted and no trade barriers against Germany in global markets are erected.

 

[David T]

On the possibility of a revolutionary socialist uprising:

Is a victorious Germany going to allow a Communist France--a state that would be preaching revolution to the workers of the world, including Germany? I doubt it, for the same reasons I doubt that the Bolsheviks could survive a German victory; see https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...n-a-cp-victory-scenario.411058/#post-14323600 At the very leasst, I can't see Germany tolerating far-left governments on *both* her west and east.

There is an analogy with 1871, when in efect Bismarck told Thiers: If you don't crush the Commune, we will...

 

[David T]

I don't see Germany taking any French territory in Europe. They got what they wanted last time, in 1871.
Loss of Colonies, that's another thing.

Arthur Link's *Woodrow Wilson and the Progressive Era* discuses (p. 259) Germany's peace terms as of 1916:

"On December 12, therefore, the Chancellor announced to an excited Reichstag that the Imperial government was ready to join with its enemies to end the war. 18 He said nothing about the German terms, which, if they had been disclosed, would have shocked the world. They included, in the East, establishment of the Kingdom of Poland and German annexation of the Baltic provinces of Courland and Lithuania; in the West, "guarantees in Belgium" or the annexation of Liege and "corresponding areas," annexation of Luxemburg *and the French territories of Briey and Longwy, which contained great iron deposits( [my emphasis--DT], strategic boundary adjustments in Alsace-Lorraine, and indemnities; overseas, the return of German colonies, except Kiaochow, the Carolines, and the Marianas, and acquisition of all or part of the Belgian Congo.... These were the terms agreed upon by the Emperor, Hindenburg, and Bethmann-Hollweg. See Official German Documents, II, 1059-1062, 1064. For an excellent discussion see Hans W. Gatzke, Germany's Drive to the West (Baltimore, 1950), pp. 139-144." https://archive.org/stream/woodrowwilsonand007665mbp#page/n301/mode/2up/

So at the very least, Liege, Luxembourg, Briey, and Longway seem likely to be annexed; Belgium (with border "adjustments" in Liege and perhaps elsewhere) would not be "annexed" but would in effect become a German protectorate. Note that Count Monts, former ambassador to Rome, a regular contributor to the *Berliner Tageblatt* and a relative moderate who believed that Germany must eventually make peace with Britain (since both nations had more to fear from the Russian "colossus" than from each other) "suggested that Britain might be persuaded to accept German annexation of the Belgian border town of Liege. Other demands might include the French railways in Turkish Anatolia, a war indemnity, *and the iron fields of Briey* [my emphasis--DT] in exchange for Thann. At the very least, Monts believed, Germany would need to annex Liege and Luxembourg in order to guarantee the future security of the Rhineland industrial area..." https://books.google.com/books?id=iCGEPwGvqVUC&pg=PA122