China has the chance to go either Soviet- or Western-aligned, and the way it ends up will depend on future events. The regions surrounding it in the south and east are largely allies of the UK and US at the moment, but Soviet influence will also grow as time goes on.
Death in Tehran (Redux)
- Thread starter Thanosaekk
- Start date
Chapter 18: Britain Rules the Waves (1945 - 1947)
Chapter 18: Britain Rules the Waves
No sooner had World War II in Europe ended than it was time for elections to be held in the United Kingdom. The wartime national coalition, composed of all parties inside Parliament, had been put in place in 1940 and under Prime Ministers Churchill and Eden it had survived the five years of war. However, most of the Labour leadership was intent on holding elections as soon as possible, and with the coming of VE-Day, they put pressure on the coalition. On July 18th 1945, general elections were called, and a caretaker government led by Eden was temporarily appointed for a few weeks.
Both sides campaigned intensely. On the one hand, Labour under Clement Attlee called for change after so many years of Conservatives in control - nationalization, economic planning and other left wing policies were needed. Many went with their message, as the incumbents were also blamed for the worst effects of the Great Depression and the disasters of World War II. On the other hand, the Conservatives also had to focus on social policies in their platform, but they also talked about economic recovery and safe withdrawal from overseas involvement in many colonies. Thanks to Eden's popularity, especially after Churchill's death, the Tories still had a chance, and in the end, scored a narrow victory. They were able to win 324 seats, only 3 more than the number required for a majority.
Eden's cabinet, which was quite similar to the caretaker one that preceded it, quickly got to work but a first priority was foreign affairs. It was now clear that there was no real chance for Britain to hold on to its current empire, and nowhere was it harder to hold on to the colonies than in South Asia.
More specifically, the matter of Indian Independence would be key for the Conservative government in 1946. At the height of WWII, the War Cabinet had made a promise to the local parties for dominionhood once the conflict ended. Eden intended to keep that promise, and that was not surprising. By 1946, even the most conservative supporters of the Empire had come to realize the Raj was of almost no value to Britain, as it contributed little to its power. In fact, it was actually a drain as maintaining rule over an entire subcontinent was no easy task. With the advent of a sentiment in favor of decolonization, the Prime Minister and his advisors cared more about handing over control to a stable and peaceful government that would respect all ethnic groups and religions. Preserving British interests in the region was a secondary aim, but it was unclear what the cabinet was planning to do in that regard.
In a House of Commons meeting on 9 December 1945, Anthony Eden publicly announced the goal of His Majesty's Government was to ensure a stable transfer of control and, as the last act of the UK on the region, preserve unity in a diverse environment. Talks with the driving forces of Indian independence soon began, but the National Congress was determined to have "Purna Swaraj", or total self-rule. Jawaharlal Nehru, one of the INC's leaders, made that clear in a speech in Bombay where he declared the people would accept nothing less than total self-rule within two years.
The awkward position the government found itself in was highlighted by the Labour Party which jumped at any chance to criticize them. Nevertheless, the plan for the British Raj went ahead, and on New Year Day of 1947, the Dominion of India was declared. Archibald Wavell became a Governor-General, and the country would now have general elections that encompassed all provinces and made for one assembly instead of the various provincial ones. These elections, the first in the nation's history, were held in February: they were largely a competition between the dominant INC and the All-Indian Muslim League, although various regional parties won some seats. The participation of the Communists was also notable, although they were only able to win 16 seats.
Despite this great step, London was still reluctant to abolish the hundreds of Princely States whose rulers were generally considered British Allies or even puppets. They represented a group the Governor-General could rely on, but held no elections inside their border and were the subject of constant criticism by both major movements in local politics.
Had it been allowed to, the Parliament would have swiftly declared total independence and end to Commonwealth membership. However, there were hurdles before that could be achieved. Firstly, under the terms of the act that brought home rule to India, only a special Commission on Self-Rule headed by Enoch Powell would have the power to change the legal status of the country with the agreement of all parties in the legislature. Secondly, that would also require a prepared Constitution which would take both time and effort to create. Finally, the fierce rivalry between the Hindu and Muslim populations, as well as the fear of a Hindu-dominated state should there be total self-rule, meant Jinnah and the AIML were not too sure about that prospect. Instead, most Muslims supported the creation of an independent "Pakistan" in the Northwest and Bengal, something clearly opposed by the Congress.
There was one thing Indian political movements could do to further their goals of independence, and that was the Integration Acts. The over 500 Princely States were all ruled by various princes who had agreements through which they would be under the protection of the British Crown. The granting of dominion status to India caused many problems, as that protection could not be guaranteed. To resolve the situation, the Conservative government gave the wealthy princes two options: fully accede to the Dominion under an Integration Act, or opt for independence under nominal British protection. This was aimed at weakening the INC, but soon through the efforts of V.P. Menon over 300 of the states agreed to fully join India. The ones that resisted were usually the large, wealthy ones like Mysore, Travancore, Jammu - Kashmir, and Hyderabad.
The Indian government lacked the authority to take action against all these states, that seemed to drift further away from the rest of the country. Still, many of the people residing in them wished for union, and often protested or even revolted as was the case in Jammu and Kashmir in June of 1947. This accompanied the rise of intercommunal conflict mostly between Muslim and Hindu populations, that threatened to shake the country to its very core by the end of 1947. With calls of partition still falling on deaf ears, it was clear some new solution would have to be found soon, but no one knew what it should be.
No sooner had World War II in Europe ended than it was time for elections to be held in the United Kingdom. The wartime national coalition, composed of all parties inside Parliament, had been put in place in 1940 and under Prime Ministers Churchill and Eden it had survived the five years of war. However, most of the Labour leadership was intent on holding elections as soon as possible, and with the coming of VE-Day, they put pressure on the coalition. On July 18th 1945, general elections were called, and a caretaker government led by Eden was temporarily appointed for a few weeks.
Both sides campaigned intensely. On the one hand, Labour under Clement Attlee called for change after so many years of Conservatives in control - nationalization, economic planning and other left wing policies were needed. Many went with their message, as the incumbents were also blamed for the worst effects of the Great Depression and the disasters of World War II. On the other hand, the Conservatives also had to focus on social policies in their platform, but they also talked about economic recovery and safe withdrawal from overseas involvement in many colonies. Thanks to Eden's popularity, especially after Churchill's death, the Tories still had a chance, and in the end, scored a narrow victory. They were able to win 324 seats, only 3 more than the number required for a majority.
Eden's cabinet, which was quite similar to the caretaker one that preceded it, quickly got to work but a first priority was foreign affairs. It was now clear that there was no real chance for Britain to hold on to its current empire, and nowhere was it harder to hold on to the colonies than in South Asia.
More specifically, the matter of Indian Independence would be key for the Conservative government in 1946. At the height of WWII, the War Cabinet had made a promise to the local parties for dominionhood once the conflict ended. Eden intended to keep that promise, and that was not surprising. By 1946, even the most conservative supporters of the Empire had come to realize the Raj was of almost no value to Britain, as it contributed little to its power. In fact, it was actually a drain as maintaining rule over an entire subcontinent was no easy task. With the advent of a sentiment in favor of decolonization, the Prime Minister and his advisors cared more about handing over control to a stable and peaceful government that would respect all ethnic groups and religions. Preserving British interests in the region was a secondary aim, but it was unclear what the cabinet was planning to do in that regard.
In a House of Commons meeting on 9 December 1945, Anthony Eden publicly announced the goal of His Majesty's Government was to ensure a stable transfer of control and, as the last act of the UK on the region, preserve unity in a diverse environment. Talks with the driving forces of Indian independence soon began, but the National Congress was determined to have "Purna Swaraj", or total self-rule. Jawaharlal Nehru, one of the INC's leaders, made that clear in a speech in Bombay where he declared the people would accept nothing less than total self-rule within two years.
The awkward position the government found itself in was highlighted by the Labour Party which jumped at any chance to criticize them. Nevertheless, the plan for the British Raj went ahead, and on New Year Day of 1947, the Dominion of India was declared. Archibald Wavell became a Governor-General, and the country would now have general elections that encompassed all provinces and made for one assembly instead of the various provincial ones. These elections, the first in the nation's history, were held in February: they were largely a competition between the dominant INC and the All-Indian Muslim League, although various regional parties won some seats. The participation of the Communists was also notable, although they were only able to win 16 seats.
Despite this great step, London was still reluctant to abolish the hundreds of Princely States whose rulers were generally considered British Allies or even puppets. They represented a group the Governor-General could rely on, but held no elections inside their border and were the subject of constant criticism by both major movements in local politics.
Had it been allowed to, the Parliament would have swiftly declared total independence and end to Commonwealth membership. However, there were hurdles before that could be achieved. Firstly, under the terms of the act that brought home rule to India, only a special Commission on Self-Rule headed by Enoch Powell would have the power to change the legal status of the country with the agreement of all parties in the legislature. Secondly, that would also require a prepared Constitution which would take both time and effort to create. Finally, the fierce rivalry between the Hindu and Muslim populations, as well as the fear of a Hindu-dominated state should there be total self-rule, meant Jinnah and the AIML were not too sure about that prospect. Instead, most Muslims supported the creation of an independent "Pakistan" in the Northwest and Bengal, something clearly opposed by the Congress.
There was one thing Indian political movements could do to further their goals of independence, and that was the Integration Acts. The over 500 Princely States were all ruled by various princes who had agreements through which they would be under the protection of the British Crown. The granting of dominion status to India caused many problems, as that protection could not be guaranteed. To resolve the situation, the Conservative government gave the wealthy princes two options: fully accede to the Dominion under an Integration Act, or opt for independence under nominal British protection. This was aimed at weakening the INC, but soon through the efforts of V.P. Menon over 300 of the states agreed to fully join India. The ones that resisted were usually the large, wealthy ones like Mysore, Travancore, Jammu - Kashmir, and Hyderabad.
The Indian government lacked the authority to take action against all these states, that seemed to drift further away from the rest of the country. Still, many of the people residing in them wished for union, and often protested or even revolted as was the case in Jammu and Kashmir in June of 1947. This accompanied the rise of intercommunal conflict mostly between Muslim and Hindu populations, that threatened to shake the country to its very core by the end of 1947. With calls of partition still falling on deaf ears, it was clear some new solution would have to be found soon, but no one knew what it should be.
Happy with most of that but the people of Jammu and Kashmir wanting union is silly, its a Hindu Prince and mainly Muslim population. If an independent Pakistan is on the table , yes they would wish union with that but not a Hindu dominated India. OTL its decision to join India was a deal done by its Prince despite what the people wanted, hence the wars and de facto partition.
I based that section on the historical events in Kashmir and the division between the prince and the people. You're right that they would be unlikely to wish for union with an unpartitioned India, although in this case it is more of a reaction against the princes as part of the general wave of protests targeted at them. After all, Jammu-Kashmir has better chances at joining Pakistan if the semi-independent state is abolished first.
Chapter 19: Bhinneka Tunggal Ika (September 1945 - 1947)
Chapter 19: Bhinneka Tunggal Ika
The three-and-a-half-year occupation of the Dutch East Indies by Imperial Japan led to an uproar in Indonesian nationalism, as was the case for many Southeast Asian countries. While the new authorities never fully endorsed the concept of Indonesian independence and there were uprisings against them, many leading nationalist figures like Sukarno believed earning self-rule was possible. Towards the end of the Second World War II, British forces carried out landings in northern Sumatra (based on the plans for Operation Culverin), Borneo and a few other islands of the East Indies. This was part of the general plan to reclaim more and more territories as the IJA was crumbling, and soon, even former Dutch authorities were invited back to the areas under Allied control.
By September 1, 1945, Japan had sued for peace, and army units beyond the Home Isles were surrendering en masse. Java was still under occupation by the Sixteenth Army at that time, but a power vacuum had been created as the Japanese had accepted their defeat and the Allies had not arrived yet. Sukarno, the leader of the Indonesian National Party, utilized the opportunity and on the 1st declared independence, accompanied by high-ranking Japanese commanders.
The Netherlands wished to restore order to the archipelago as soon as possible, since Queen Wilhelmina’s government was not planning to give up the colony. Only within weeks of the Declaration of Independence, plans were drafted for a reclamation, but they would have been abandoned if not for British support. Eden's government, afraid that Sukarno's revolution could send shockwaves through the rest of Southeast Asia and lead to a wave of anti-colonialist movements in its own lands, offered help to the Dutch. British divisions leading the disarmament and repatriation of the 16th Army left their posts in Malaya and Sumatra on September 11, and in a week commenced their deployment in Java, a hotspot of revolutionaries.
The occupation of Batavia was met with massive protests and riots on behalf of independence activists, but the superiority of the British Army in numbers forced the PNI to retreat to Java's interior. At the same time, Britain was expanding its hold on northern Sumatra and seized Palembang, while Japanese troops in the scattered eastern islands surrendered to Australian units that allowed Dutch authorities to re-establish their control there. By the onset of winter, the major fighting was taking place in Java and Sumatra. The largest island in Asia, Borneo, was also safely under Allied control after a campaign against the Japanese there in summer of 1945.
The next few months saw a brutal Anglo-Dutch campaign to pacify the interior of the islands, which proved remarkably difficult thanks to the terrain, the climate, and the guerrillas. It was thought unwise for the British to send units from India or Malaya to fight the insurgency, as the chances of mutiny or defections were high (not to mention the chance of unrest back home). Instead, troops came mostly from the homeland, other Dominions or the colonies in inner Africa, and while that helped on the frontlines, it was unpopular back home. Very few, like Lt. Con. Jack Churchill who was deployed in Java, were enjoying more war after the greatest conflict in history, and the Indonesian War became greatly unpopular back in England.
The United States was hesitant to support the Netherlands and Britain in a clearly colonial affair, and after pleas to join the counter-insurgency effort, actually tried to condemn the intervention through the UN. While the Resolution was vetoed by the Security Council, it still marked the end of efforts to involve the US in the war, at least the current administration. The USSR, initially uninterested in the conflict, later began arming the PNI as long as it maintained an uneasy alliance with the local communist party.
There were no real changes in the nature of the war throughout 1946. The guerrilla campaign in Java and Sumatra continued despite attempts at pacification, while the British worked their way through the eastern islands like the Moluccas and Sulawesi. Back in the Netherlands, conscription was implemented and over 100.000 men were recruited to be sent to the East Indies. Early 1947 saw the first real attempt to bring an end to the revolt spearheaded by the Dutch with Operation Sunflower. Their army attacked on all major fronts, learning from British counter-insurgency tactics and splitting areas held by guerrillas into smaller pockets. Although all major cities were captured by June, armed groups still operated deep inside the islands and far from any populated areas. Brutal methods were employed on occasions by the colonial authorities, which helped further turn public opinion against them.
As the insurrection continued, international pressure on the Netherlands kept building up, but several events would prolong the war that was close to being resolved. First, internal conflict broke out inside Sukarno's group as the communist PKI broke off and launched its own revolt in Eastern Java. While it wasn't successful, it exposed the anti-communist nature of leading figures like Hatta and caused Soviet support for the PNI to end. America's interference in regional affairs would also come to an end later, but before that, Governor-General Van Mook announced the plans for an Indonesian Commonwealth.
The planned Commonwealth would be comprised of a number of federal, constituent states and would be a democracy under nominal control of the Dutch crown. Unfortunately for Van Mook, the plan was barely popular, and the Republican insurrection continued for the third year in 1947 with no signs of stopping. As a gesture of good will, areas marked as "pacified" like Western New Guinea and the Moluccas saw the implementation of this plan. This did not change, however, the allegations of colonial brutality whose news spread much more quickly. By autumn of 1947, the East Indies was a lost cause for the Netherlands, but it was not a cause they were willing to give up.
The three-and-a-half-year occupation of the Dutch East Indies by Imperial Japan led to an uproar in Indonesian nationalism, as was the case for many Southeast Asian countries. While the new authorities never fully endorsed the concept of Indonesian independence and there were uprisings against them, many leading nationalist figures like Sukarno believed earning self-rule was possible. Towards the end of the Second World War II, British forces carried out landings in northern Sumatra (based on the plans for Operation Culverin), Borneo and a few other islands of the East Indies. This was part of the general plan to reclaim more and more territories as the IJA was crumbling, and soon, even former Dutch authorities were invited back to the areas under Allied control.
By September 1, 1945, Japan had sued for peace, and army units beyond the Home Isles were surrendering en masse. Java was still under occupation by the Sixteenth Army at that time, but a power vacuum had been created as the Japanese had accepted their defeat and the Allies had not arrived yet. Sukarno, the leader of the Indonesian National Party, utilized the opportunity and on the 1st declared independence, accompanied by high-ranking Japanese commanders.
The Netherlands wished to restore order to the archipelago as soon as possible, since Queen Wilhelmina’s government was not planning to give up the colony. Only within weeks of the Declaration of Independence, plans were drafted for a reclamation, but they would have been abandoned if not for British support. Eden's government, afraid that Sukarno's revolution could send shockwaves through the rest of Southeast Asia and lead to a wave of anti-colonialist movements in its own lands, offered help to the Dutch. British divisions leading the disarmament and repatriation of the 16th Army left their posts in Malaya and Sumatra on September 11, and in a week commenced their deployment in Java, a hotspot of revolutionaries.
The occupation of Batavia was met with massive protests and riots on behalf of independence activists, but the superiority of the British Army in numbers forced the PNI to retreat to Java's interior. At the same time, Britain was expanding its hold on northern Sumatra and seized Palembang, while Japanese troops in the scattered eastern islands surrendered to Australian units that allowed Dutch authorities to re-establish their control there. By the onset of winter, the major fighting was taking place in Java and Sumatra. The largest island in Asia, Borneo, was also safely under Allied control after a campaign against the Japanese there in summer of 1945.
The next few months saw a brutal Anglo-Dutch campaign to pacify the interior of the islands, which proved remarkably difficult thanks to the terrain, the climate, and the guerrillas. It was thought unwise for the British to send units from India or Malaya to fight the insurgency, as the chances of mutiny or defections were high (not to mention the chance of unrest back home). Instead, troops came mostly from the homeland, other Dominions or the colonies in inner Africa, and while that helped on the frontlines, it was unpopular back home. Very few, like Lt. Con. Jack Churchill who was deployed in Java, were enjoying more war after the greatest conflict in history, and the Indonesian War became greatly unpopular back in England.
The United States was hesitant to support the Netherlands and Britain in a clearly colonial affair, and after pleas to join the counter-insurgency effort, actually tried to condemn the intervention through the UN. While the Resolution was vetoed by the Security Council, it still marked the end of efforts to involve the US in the war, at least the current administration. The USSR, initially uninterested in the conflict, later began arming the PNI as long as it maintained an uneasy alliance with the local communist party.
There were no real changes in the nature of the war throughout 1946. The guerrilla campaign in Java and Sumatra continued despite attempts at pacification, while the British worked their way through the eastern islands like the Moluccas and Sulawesi. Back in the Netherlands, conscription was implemented and over 100.000 men were recruited to be sent to the East Indies. Early 1947 saw the first real attempt to bring an end to the revolt spearheaded by the Dutch with Operation Sunflower. Their army attacked on all major fronts, learning from British counter-insurgency tactics and splitting areas held by guerrillas into smaller pockets. Although all major cities were captured by June, armed groups still operated deep inside the islands and far from any populated areas. Brutal methods were employed on occasions by the colonial authorities, which helped further turn public opinion against them.
As the insurrection continued, international pressure on the Netherlands kept building up, but several events would prolong the war that was close to being resolved. First, internal conflict broke out inside Sukarno's group as the communist PKI broke off and launched its own revolt in Eastern Java. While it wasn't successful, it exposed the anti-communist nature of leading figures like Hatta and caused Soviet support for the PNI to end. America's interference in regional affairs would also come to an end later, but before that, Governor-General Van Mook announced the plans for an Indonesian Commonwealth.
The planned Commonwealth would be comprised of a number of federal, constituent states and would be a democracy under nominal control of the Dutch crown. Unfortunately for Van Mook, the plan was barely popular, and the Republican insurrection continued for the third year in 1947 with no signs of stopping. As a gesture of good will, areas marked as "pacified" like Western New Guinea and the Moluccas saw the implementation of this plan. This did not change, however, the allegations of colonial brutality whose news spread much more quickly. By autumn of 1947, the East Indies was a lost cause for the Netherlands, but it was not a cause they were willing to give up.
Map of Eastern Europe (1946)
Here is a map of Eastern Europe in 1946 just so you have a reference. New chapter coming tomorrow!
I can assume that the Tito split happens like OTL.Here is a map of Eastern Europe in 1946 just so you have a reference. New chapter coming tomorrow!
Yugoslavia will go to ... interesting places soon. A Balkan update is coming in a few days, though, so you'll see what happens.
Tories in 1945 eh? 1950 is going to be an absolutely hellish election for them, 20 years in power including the Depression and the rather bleak postwar period. I wonder if Attlee will stand down after losing such an easily winnable election? All in good time I imagine. Anyway, really enjoying this TL!
Chapter 20: The Powderkeg pt.1 (1945 - Summer 1946)
Chapter 20: The Powderkeg pt.1
On November 29, 1943, as the NKVD scrambled to piece together the events in the Tehran Conference and news of the infamous assassination spread around the world, a conference was being held in the town of Jajce, Bosnia and Herzegovina. A number of partisan leaders convened as members of the Anti-Fascist Council for the National Liberation of Yugoslavia (AVNOJ), and made a series of decisions on the future of the country. First, Yugoslavia would become a federal democracy of six constituent states. Secondly, a National Committee would be elected to govern temporarily, with Josip Broz Tito as its Prime Minister. Finally, King Peter II would not be allowed to return unless the monarchy was accepted by a majority of the people.
For the next few months, the Partisans continued expanding their area of control in the mountains, and were soon receiving support from the Western Allies. In the winter of 1944 - 45, the cooperation of the various resistance forces and the major powers was challenged, though, when a coup occurred in Croatia and British troops landed in Dalmatia. Members of the Croatian Peasant Party and NDH defectors were shielded in Zadar from both the Germans and the partisans, causing tensions once again. Nevertheless, Tito's partisans continued their campaigns, liberating the rest of Yugoslavia and cooperating with the Red Army in advances to Belgrade and Hungary. When the war ended and the dust settled, a deal had to be struck, and so the British agreed to withdraw their troops in exchange for promises of a democratic government and a free referendum on the monarchy.
Proper elections for a Constituent Assembly were held in combination with the referendum on 6 March 1946. Besides occasional reports of intimidation by partisan units in Bosnia, this process was largely accepted as free and fair. The People's Front, a broad alliance dominated by the League of Communists, was able to get a majority of 61% and was followed by the Croatian HSS, which swept much of its home region to get 19%. They were followed by a revived Yugoslav National Party in favor of a royal restoration, and other minor movements, typically ethnic-based ones. The referendum showed only a 26% support for the return of King Peter, and so the Constituent Assembly declared the country a republic only a few days after convening for the first time.
It was also notable that, after pleas from the HSS, Britain and various other movements, local governments with significant autonomy were introduced for each federal republic. Additional elections held led to the formation of these 6 governments, but the autonomy provided to them resulted in disparities. For example, while in Serbia and Macedonia the People's Front won with ease and began encouraging left-wing policies, the HSS in Croatia and the awkward multi-ethnic coalition in Bosnia-Herzegovina did everything in their capacity to resist them. It did not take long for Prime Minister Tito to see this was a problem, and not before long he would start expanding the cabinet's powers "in the name of Yugoslav unity".
Nowhere were the issues of the reformed nation more apparent than in Bosnia and Herzegovina, where Croats, Serbs and Muslims all co-existed. As mentioned, an awkward coalition of several parties had been formed under the pressure of the central government, with a revived version of the Yugoslav Muslim Organization leading it. What was championed as progress in solving ethnic strife in the country turned out to be ineffective at day-to-day governing, and soon the situation in the Constituent republic began to deteriorate.
First, in the summer of 1946, reports indicated tensions and increasing murders between ethnic groups in the region. The blame was constantly shifted to different groups and scapegoats, but the murder of a Muslim Bosniak in Banja Luka on September 12 ignited even more violence that got progressively worse every week. Riots became a common occurrence in most major towns, causing widespread destruction of property and making the United Nations issue a resolution for foreign observers to come and report on the problems the province faced. Prime Minister Tito only agreed to the resolution after setting his own terms that rendered the effort almost useless. The failure to produce anything more than vague reports was criticized by many UN member states and allowed the unrest to continue without foreign involvement.
The question of the Yugoslav borders was an important one for Britain. For the most part, pre-war borders were restored, but the country that would inherit Istria and Trieste had not been determined yet. The port city was occupied by an Australian division in the last days of the war, with partisans only getting to seize its outskirts, but there were demands for it to be included to the Croatian and Slovene republics. Despite these calls, Trieste remained under Allied occupation with no decision as to its legal status before the official peace treaty with Italy. Another point of contention was Carinthia in Austria, parts of which had Slovene populations and were even occupied by Yugoslav partisans in July.
By this point, the UK and to a lesser extent America were becoming concerned about the possibility of Tito's Yugoslavia evolving into an authoritarian state and striving for annexation of more territories, if not for the unification of the Balkans. Anthony Eden was cautiously optimistic about the prospect of limiting the power of the League of Communists, and together with his cabinet began examining solutions, some of which were quite radical. Long before a definitive proposal was made on that subject, the unrest in Bosnia and elsewhere came to an end, but the underlying problems still existed. The Yugoslav state, which was carefully balancing the interests of the West and the Soviets, was becoming more unstable every day.
On November 29, 1943, as the NKVD scrambled to piece together the events in the Tehran Conference and news of the infamous assassination spread around the world, a conference was being held in the town of Jajce, Bosnia and Herzegovina. A number of partisan leaders convened as members of the Anti-Fascist Council for the National Liberation of Yugoslavia (AVNOJ), and made a series of decisions on the future of the country. First, Yugoslavia would become a federal democracy of six constituent states. Secondly, a National Committee would be elected to govern temporarily, with Josip Broz Tito as its Prime Minister. Finally, King Peter II would not be allowed to return unless the monarchy was accepted by a majority of the people.
For the next few months, the Partisans continued expanding their area of control in the mountains, and were soon receiving support from the Western Allies. In the winter of 1944 - 45, the cooperation of the various resistance forces and the major powers was challenged, though, when a coup occurred in Croatia and British troops landed in Dalmatia. Members of the Croatian Peasant Party and NDH defectors were shielded in Zadar from both the Germans and the partisans, causing tensions once again. Nevertheless, Tito's partisans continued their campaigns, liberating the rest of Yugoslavia and cooperating with the Red Army in advances to Belgrade and Hungary. When the war ended and the dust settled, a deal had to be struck, and so the British agreed to withdraw their troops in exchange for promises of a democratic government and a free referendum on the monarchy.
Proper elections for a Constituent Assembly were held in combination with the referendum on 6 March 1946. Besides occasional reports of intimidation by partisan units in Bosnia, this process was largely accepted as free and fair. The People's Front, a broad alliance dominated by the League of Communists, was able to get a majority of 61% and was followed by the Croatian HSS, which swept much of its home region to get 19%. They were followed by a revived Yugoslav National Party in favor of a royal restoration, and other minor movements, typically ethnic-based ones. The referendum showed only a 26% support for the return of King Peter, and so the Constituent Assembly declared the country a republic only a few days after convening for the first time.
It was also notable that, after pleas from the HSS, Britain and various other movements, local governments with significant autonomy were introduced for each federal republic. Additional elections held led to the formation of these 6 governments, but the autonomy provided to them resulted in disparities. For example, while in Serbia and Macedonia the People's Front won with ease and began encouraging left-wing policies, the HSS in Croatia and the awkward multi-ethnic coalition in Bosnia-Herzegovina did everything in their capacity to resist them. It did not take long for Prime Minister Tito to see this was a problem, and not before long he would start expanding the cabinet's powers "in the name of Yugoslav unity".
Nowhere were the issues of the reformed nation more apparent than in Bosnia and Herzegovina, where Croats, Serbs and Muslims all co-existed. As mentioned, an awkward coalition of several parties had been formed under the pressure of the central government, with a revived version of the Yugoslav Muslim Organization leading it. What was championed as progress in solving ethnic strife in the country turned out to be ineffective at day-to-day governing, and soon the situation in the Constituent republic began to deteriorate.
First, in the summer of 1946, reports indicated tensions and increasing murders between ethnic groups in the region. The blame was constantly shifted to different groups and scapegoats, but the murder of a Muslim Bosniak in Banja Luka on September 12 ignited even more violence that got progressively worse every week. Riots became a common occurrence in most major towns, causing widespread destruction of property and making the United Nations issue a resolution for foreign observers to come and report on the problems the province faced. Prime Minister Tito only agreed to the resolution after setting his own terms that rendered the effort almost useless. The failure to produce anything more than vague reports was criticized by many UN member states and allowed the unrest to continue without foreign involvement.
The question of the Yugoslav borders was an important one for Britain. For the most part, pre-war borders were restored, but the country that would inherit Istria and Trieste had not been determined yet. The port city was occupied by an Australian division in the last days of the war, with partisans only getting to seize its outskirts, but there were demands for it to be included to the Croatian and Slovene republics. Despite these calls, Trieste remained under Allied occupation with no decision as to its legal status before the official peace treaty with Italy. Another point of contention was Carinthia in Austria, parts of which had Slovene populations and were even occupied by Yugoslav partisans in July.
By this point, the UK and to a lesser extent America were becoming concerned about the possibility of Tito's Yugoslavia evolving into an authoritarian state and striving for annexation of more territories, if not for the unification of the Balkans. Anthony Eden was cautiously optimistic about the prospect of limiting the power of the League of Communists, and together with his cabinet began examining solutions, some of which were quite radical. Long before a definitive proposal was made on that subject, the unrest in Bosnia and elsewhere came to an end, but the underlying problems still existed. The Yugoslav state, which was carefully balancing the interests of the West and the Soviets, was becoming more unstable every day.
Chapter 21: The Powderkeg pt.2 (1944 - 1947)
Chapter 21: The Powderkeg pt.2
In June 1944, despite the numerous challenges presented to them, the Greek government-in-exile was able to orchestrate the Damascus Conference, where representatives from both them and the various resistance groups active in the mainland would meet. There was a clear rift between the monarchist and Venizelist members of the GiE and the almost exclusively left-leaning partisans of the National Liberation Front (EAM), but representatives from both, as well as the smaller center-right groups of EDES and EKKA, came to Syria.
The goal of the conference was to do what became one of the most popular strategies employed by the Western Allies and the Soviets to ensure a balance of power, and arrange a national unity coalition from across the spectrum. EAM was definitely in a negotiating position, as despite any clear Soviet support, it controlled almost all of the Greek countryside by June 1944 and even had formed its own government in the mountains - meaning there were three different candidates for the legitimate regime. Being in that position, it demanded presence in the cabinet, the merger of all proper divisions and partisan units into a single military with a neutral commander in chief, and the creation of a regency until a referendum on the monarchy was held. The British-supported delegation vaguely agreed, and a joint declaration was made that called for a new government after liberation on these terms.
The gradual withdrawal of German troops from occupied Greece began on January 15 1945, and nine days later Athens was liberated. The power vacuum in these regions was soon filled by the arrival of exiled forces like the Sacred Band and a British division, although EAM took the opportunity to bring the rest of the country besides major cities and transport links under its control. In Athens, a tense stand-off occurred for days as EAM units were gradually disbanded, but the tension was defused by February 1st, when the composition of the new cabinet was declared. Positions were spread between the officials returning from the Middle East and socialists - many of whom belonged to the smaller parties participating in EAM.
A regent was appointed until a referendum on the King was held. The man appointed to this position was Archbishop Damaskinos of Athens, a prominent priest who was known for his moderate beliefs, the calls for peace and unity, as well as his actions in saving Jews and protesting against the Nazis. The regency gave him no real power, which was mainly held by Prime Minister Papandreou, but he helped cool tensions and clean the stain of fascism and collaborationism. Despite the liberation, though, morale still remained remarkably low due to the effects of a large famine and hyperinflation, and that was the government's first priority by far. The arrival of RPUN funds was directed mainly at fixing those problems, as well as repairing and rebuilding infrastructure destroyed by the Germans during their withdrawal. In general, Greece had made the best out of its volatile state, and sought to regain pre-war economic levels in the future.
Recovery was not so simple for the state of Albania, which had fallen to the partisans of the National Liberation Movement. Although the Congress of Përmet had created a provisional government composed of numerous LANÇ members, underlying rivalries still existed and caused friction inside the movement. Enver Hoxha had been generally accepted as the leader and General Secretary before the liberation, but opposition to him had rallied around Mustafa Gjinishi, another resistance fighter who was rumoured to be plotting against Hoxha. In the winter of 1944-45, unbeknownst to most countries, a bloodless coup took place that removed him from power and installed "collective rule" by the LANÇ with Gjinishi at its helm - and rumour has it that it was launched with Soviet backing.
Hoxha still remained in the shadows, eagerly waiting to strike at every weak point of the "collective" decision-making body and return to his former position. After lurking in the shadows for months and launching criticism after criticism of "Gjinishi's puppet committee", he made a grand speech in the June 1947 convention of the LANÇ, where he attacked every move made since his downfall and urged for a return to his policies in the first weeks of liberation.
Domestically, the Albanian regime had taken a cautious approach to implementing socialism, and was more concerned about problems such as rampant poverty and illiteracy that were rarely addressed by previous governments. This was also where much of the (limited) RPUN funding was directed to, with collectivization of land and rapid industrialisation taking a back seat. Politics in the de jure democracy were dominated by the Communist Party, with any serious opposition to the right banned or replaced by subservient parties. As for foreign policy, Albania never fully aligned with the Soviets and even had some dealings with the United Kingdom. Thus, it is not hard to imagine the dislike of many leading communists for what had been done in these years.
In the end, Hoxha's motion to end the current system reinstate himself as General Secretary was narrowly shot down with 7 in favor and 8 against. Having played his last card, he had no choice but to flee. In his last tour from Tirana to the port of Dürres, he tried to rally locals to his cause but failed as the government that had granted him exile observed. What followed was a barrage of accusations from both sides of the power struggle: Hoxha called Gjinishi a British agent, only for himself to be labelled a Yugoslav puppet. In addition, from July to October 1947, it is estimated there were over two dozen assassination attempts on Gjinishi, some planned by Hoxha and others a result of his attempts at radical reform.
In June 1944, despite the numerous challenges presented to them, the Greek government-in-exile was able to orchestrate the Damascus Conference, where representatives from both them and the various resistance groups active in the mainland would meet. There was a clear rift between the monarchist and Venizelist members of the GiE and the almost exclusively left-leaning partisans of the National Liberation Front (EAM), but representatives from both, as well as the smaller center-right groups of EDES and EKKA, came to Syria.
The goal of the conference was to do what became one of the most popular strategies employed by the Western Allies and the Soviets to ensure a balance of power, and arrange a national unity coalition from across the spectrum. EAM was definitely in a negotiating position, as despite any clear Soviet support, it controlled almost all of the Greek countryside by June 1944 and even had formed its own government in the mountains - meaning there were three different candidates for the legitimate regime. Being in that position, it demanded presence in the cabinet, the merger of all proper divisions and partisan units into a single military with a neutral commander in chief, and the creation of a regency until a referendum on the monarchy was held. The British-supported delegation vaguely agreed, and a joint declaration was made that called for a new government after liberation on these terms.
The gradual withdrawal of German troops from occupied Greece began on January 15 1945, and nine days later Athens was liberated. The power vacuum in these regions was soon filled by the arrival of exiled forces like the Sacred Band and a British division, although EAM took the opportunity to bring the rest of the country besides major cities and transport links under its control. In Athens, a tense stand-off occurred for days as EAM units were gradually disbanded, but the tension was defused by February 1st, when the composition of the new cabinet was declared. Positions were spread between the officials returning from the Middle East and socialists - many of whom belonged to the smaller parties participating in EAM.
A regent was appointed until a referendum on the King was held. The man appointed to this position was Archbishop Damaskinos of Athens, a prominent priest who was known for his moderate beliefs, the calls for peace and unity, as well as his actions in saving Jews and protesting against the Nazis. The regency gave him no real power, which was mainly held by Prime Minister Papandreou, but he helped cool tensions and clean the stain of fascism and collaborationism. Despite the liberation, though, morale still remained remarkably low due to the effects of a large famine and hyperinflation, and that was the government's first priority by far. The arrival of RPUN funds was directed mainly at fixing those problems, as well as repairing and rebuilding infrastructure destroyed by the Germans during their withdrawal. In general, Greece had made the best out of its volatile state, and sought to regain pre-war economic levels in the future.
Recovery was not so simple for the state of Albania, which had fallen to the partisans of the National Liberation Movement. Although the Congress of Përmet had created a provisional government composed of numerous LANÇ members, underlying rivalries still existed and caused friction inside the movement. Enver Hoxha had been generally accepted as the leader and General Secretary before the liberation, but opposition to him had rallied around Mustafa Gjinishi, another resistance fighter who was rumoured to be plotting against Hoxha. In the winter of 1944-45, unbeknownst to most countries, a bloodless coup took place that removed him from power and installed "collective rule" by the LANÇ with Gjinishi at its helm - and rumour has it that it was launched with Soviet backing.
Hoxha still remained in the shadows, eagerly waiting to strike at every weak point of the "collective" decision-making body and return to his former position. After lurking in the shadows for months and launching criticism after criticism of "Gjinishi's puppet committee", he made a grand speech in the June 1947 convention of the LANÇ, where he attacked every move made since his downfall and urged for a return to his policies in the first weeks of liberation.
Domestically, the Albanian regime had taken a cautious approach to implementing socialism, and was more concerned about problems such as rampant poverty and illiteracy that were rarely addressed by previous governments. This was also where much of the (limited) RPUN funding was directed to, with collectivization of land and rapid industrialisation taking a back seat. Politics in the de jure democracy were dominated by the Communist Party, with any serious opposition to the right banned or replaced by subservient parties. As for foreign policy, Albania never fully aligned with the Soviets and even had some dealings with the United Kingdom. Thus, it is not hard to imagine the dislike of many leading communists for what had been done in these years.
In the end, Hoxha's motion to end the current system reinstate himself as General Secretary was narrowly shot down with 7 in favor and 8 against. Having played his last card, he had no choice but to flee. In his last tour from Tirana to the port of Dürres, he tried to rally locals to his cause but failed as the government that had granted him exile observed. What followed was a barrage of accusations from both sides of the power struggle: Hoxha called Gjinishi a British agent, only for himself to be labelled a Yugoslav puppet. In addition, from July to October 1947, it is estimated there were over two dozen assassination attempts on Gjinishi, some planned by Hoxha and others a result of his attempts at radical reform.
Chapter 22: Forza Italia! (May 1945 - 1947)
Chapter 22: Forza Italia!
The country of Italy had initially been an Axis member, but in 1943 attempted to defect to the Allies. A bloody two year long campaign followed, and by the end of it a group of resistance distinct from the fascists that had plunged the country into WW2 had emerged. This included everyone from right-wing nationalists to communists following what the Kremlin dictated, and made for a diverse political landscape. Before the country could become a sovereign, fledgling democracy, though, it was under occupation by the armies of the British, the Americans, and various other foreign units that were gradually returning to their homeland.
The first dispute between the Allies and Italy arose before WWII had even ended; in May 1945, after German positions in the north of the country collapsed, French armies that had held the line in the western Alps since autumn made their move and occupied border towns like Sanremo, Sestriere and Aosta. While they soon withdrew from most of these points, a significant force remained stationed in the Aosta Valley under the orders of provisional leader Charles de Gaulle. The US quietly condemned the occupation before a peace treaty was made, but the UK was actually supportive of the move. Thus, without particular eagerness from the White House to pressure France, the occupation continued into late 1945 and 1946.
Formally, despite the widespread presence of foreign troops, the country still remained an independent state. Pietro Nenni had succeeded Badoglio as Prime Minister, and had led the National Liberation Committee composed of several anti-fascist parties to victory as its leader. In reality, the CLN was a broad organization with many representatives and decentralized power that stemmed from partisan groups. Despite that, it was still useful as a substitute for the British and American military commander that run the country and earned more control in the lead up to the 1946 elections that would decide the future of the country.
The collapse of the fascist regime had allowed for a diverse mix of new parties to enter the political stage, and in 1946 it was time for them to take over administration of the country. Possibly the largest of the parties and a contender for victory in the elections was Democrazia Cristiana, the spiritual successor of the briefly popular Italian People's Party. It had been formed shortly after the war came to the homeland, and focused mainly on Catholic principles and social conservatism. As for its opponents, they were mainly the left-leaning PSI and PCI which, unlike in other European countries, were not particularly hostile after cooperation in the National Liberation Committee.
The elections were held on November 16, 1946. A new electoral system using party list proportional representation was used to elect 525 delegates to the Constituent Assembly that was to draft the nation's new constitution. The vote resulted in a 32.6% plurality for Democrazia Cristiana, with the PSI and PCI coming second and third respectively. In the end, a coalition government between the three was formed, and prominent DC leader Alcide de Gasperi was appointed prime minister. On the same day, the Italian people decided on the fate of the monarchy. King Umberto II had succeeded his father Victor Emmanuel in the hopes of repairing the public attitude towards the throne, but it was not enough, as the abolition of the monarchy was preferred by 56.3% of the population and a republic was declared soon after, to the dismay of the small monarchist political movements. Claimants to the throne were barred from staying in the country, although many other members of the House of Savoy were not.
Meanwhile, Anglo-American troops had withdrawn from the last occupation zones in the north by the time elections were held, and the Allies were now tasked with hammering out a definitive peace treaty with Italy. The disputes that would have to be settled were numerous, and to cover them we start in the north of the country. The annexation of Aosta had been de facto enforced by the French occupation, but other areas like South Tyrol and Istria were less certain. It was likely the population of the former would want to join Austria if they had the opportunity to, but it was decided for it to remain in Italy as a semi-autonomous region. Within months, a party advocating for independence or further autonomy had appeared, but it had little say beyond in local politics. As for Istria, the Yugoslav claim was enforced by their military, and with the Balkan country having cooled relations with the West, there was no room for negotiation. Trieste, however, was held by Commonwealth troops and was scheduled to rejoin Italy in 1949.
Most other core regions of the country remained, but the colonies had to be taken care of as well. In the case of Italian Somaliland, it came under a U.N. trusteeship (an evolution of the pre-war LoN mandate system) and was effectively under British rule. The matter of Libya proved much more complex, however, as three different colonial powers were invested in it.
With the end of the Western Desert campaign, the colony had been split into its three regions. Tripolitania and Cyrenaica were under separate British military administrations, while the sparsely inhabited region of Fezzan was under French control after the FFF had advanced into Libya through the Sahara from the south. The country was still plagued by numerous problems, though. Even though Eden himself had made a promise for the end of Italian rule back in 1942, there was no real political class to take over in the case of independence, and a state had to be formed from scratch. In addition, infrastructure all along the coast was severely damaged, and the question of what would happen to the Italian settlers remained unanswered.
Despite vague promises, both France and Britain were interested in maintaining control or at least influence over their sections of Libya. Fezzan guarded French interests in Algeria and Equatorial Africa, and Paris was also concerned about the possibility of arms flowing to Algerian rebels through routes from the east. Eden, despite his pledge to the locals, was still interested in keeping Cyrenaica to project power in the Mediterranean, especially when Egypt and Palestine seemed to be drifting away from Imperial rule. In contrast to the colonial empires, the USA and USSR were eager to see independence soon. Despite various proposals that floated around, from an Egyptian - Tunisian partition to a Soviet trusteeship to a Jewish settlement, the status quo held on to the disappointment of the locals. The military administrations became more entrenched, and the only progress towards decolonization was the creation of a National Congress dominated by the historic Senussi clan.
Back in Italy, which itself was reluctant to reclaim its African territories, the DC - PSI - PCI coalition government under de Gasperi survived despite several hurdles. The DC received pressure from the public and many party members due to the possibility of their leftist coalition partners being proxies of the USSR that planned to take over, but no evidence for such claims existed. Reconstruction was a top priority and was helped by a large amount of RPUN aid, while a brand new Constitution was introduced on May 1, 1948 and cemented Italy as a parliamentary democracy that moved on from its fascist past.
The country of Italy had initially been an Axis member, but in 1943 attempted to defect to the Allies. A bloody two year long campaign followed, and by the end of it a group of resistance distinct from the fascists that had plunged the country into WW2 had emerged. This included everyone from right-wing nationalists to communists following what the Kremlin dictated, and made for a diverse political landscape. Before the country could become a sovereign, fledgling democracy, though, it was under occupation by the armies of the British, the Americans, and various other foreign units that were gradually returning to their homeland.
The first dispute between the Allies and Italy arose before WWII had even ended; in May 1945, after German positions in the north of the country collapsed, French armies that had held the line in the western Alps since autumn made their move and occupied border towns like Sanremo, Sestriere and Aosta. While they soon withdrew from most of these points, a significant force remained stationed in the Aosta Valley under the orders of provisional leader Charles de Gaulle. The US quietly condemned the occupation before a peace treaty was made, but the UK was actually supportive of the move. Thus, without particular eagerness from the White House to pressure France, the occupation continued into late 1945 and 1946.
Formally, despite the widespread presence of foreign troops, the country still remained an independent state. Pietro Nenni had succeeded Badoglio as Prime Minister, and had led the National Liberation Committee composed of several anti-fascist parties to victory as its leader. In reality, the CLN was a broad organization with many representatives and decentralized power that stemmed from partisan groups. Despite that, it was still useful as a substitute for the British and American military commander that run the country and earned more control in the lead up to the 1946 elections that would decide the future of the country.
The collapse of the fascist regime had allowed for a diverse mix of new parties to enter the political stage, and in 1946 it was time for them to take over administration of the country. Possibly the largest of the parties and a contender for victory in the elections was Democrazia Cristiana, the spiritual successor of the briefly popular Italian People's Party. It had been formed shortly after the war came to the homeland, and focused mainly on Catholic principles and social conservatism. As for its opponents, they were mainly the left-leaning PSI and PCI which, unlike in other European countries, were not particularly hostile after cooperation in the National Liberation Committee.
The elections were held on November 16, 1946. A new electoral system using party list proportional representation was used to elect 525 delegates to the Constituent Assembly that was to draft the nation's new constitution. The vote resulted in a 32.6% plurality for Democrazia Cristiana, with the PSI and PCI coming second and third respectively. In the end, a coalition government between the three was formed, and prominent DC leader Alcide de Gasperi was appointed prime minister. On the same day, the Italian people decided on the fate of the monarchy. King Umberto II had succeeded his father Victor Emmanuel in the hopes of repairing the public attitude towards the throne, but it was not enough, as the abolition of the monarchy was preferred by 56.3% of the population and a republic was declared soon after, to the dismay of the small monarchist political movements. Claimants to the throne were barred from staying in the country, although many other members of the House of Savoy were not.
Meanwhile, Anglo-American troops had withdrawn from the last occupation zones in the north by the time elections were held, and the Allies were now tasked with hammering out a definitive peace treaty with Italy. The disputes that would have to be settled were numerous, and to cover them we start in the north of the country. The annexation of Aosta had been de facto enforced by the French occupation, but other areas like South Tyrol and Istria were less certain. It was likely the population of the former would want to join Austria if they had the opportunity to, but it was decided for it to remain in Italy as a semi-autonomous region. Within months, a party advocating for independence or further autonomy had appeared, but it had little say beyond in local politics. As for Istria, the Yugoslav claim was enforced by their military, and with the Balkan country having cooled relations with the West, there was no room for negotiation. Trieste, however, was held by Commonwealth troops and was scheduled to rejoin Italy in 1949.
Most other core regions of the country remained, but the colonies had to be taken care of as well. In the case of Italian Somaliland, it came under a U.N. trusteeship (an evolution of the pre-war LoN mandate system) and was effectively under British rule. The matter of Libya proved much more complex, however, as three different colonial powers were invested in it.
With the end of the Western Desert campaign, the colony had been split into its three regions. Tripolitania and Cyrenaica were under separate British military administrations, while the sparsely inhabited region of Fezzan was under French control after the FFF had advanced into Libya through the Sahara from the south. The country was still plagued by numerous problems, though. Even though Eden himself had made a promise for the end of Italian rule back in 1942, there was no real political class to take over in the case of independence, and a state had to be formed from scratch. In addition, infrastructure all along the coast was severely damaged, and the question of what would happen to the Italian settlers remained unanswered.
Despite vague promises, both France and Britain were interested in maintaining control or at least influence over their sections of Libya. Fezzan guarded French interests in Algeria and Equatorial Africa, and Paris was also concerned about the possibility of arms flowing to Algerian rebels through routes from the east. Eden, despite his pledge to the locals, was still interested in keeping Cyrenaica to project power in the Mediterranean, especially when Egypt and Palestine seemed to be drifting away from Imperial rule. In contrast to the colonial empires, the USA and USSR were eager to see independence soon. Despite various proposals that floated around, from an Egyptian - Tunisian partition to a Soviet trusteeship to a Jewish settlement, the status quo held on to the disappointment of the locals. The military administrations became more entrenched, and the only progress towards decolonization was the creation of a National Congress dominated by the historic Senussi clan.
Back in Italy, which itself was reluctant to reclaim its African territories, the DC - PSI - PCI coalition government under de Gasperi survived despite several hurdles. The DC received pressure from the public and many party members due to the possibility of their leftist coalition partners being proxies of the USSR that planned to take over, but no evidence for such claims existed. Reconstruction was a top priority and was helped by a large amount of RPUN aid, while a brand new Constitution was introduced on May 1, 1948 and cemented Italy as a parliamentary democracy that moved on from its fascist past.
Chapter 23: The Palestinian Question
Chapter 23: The Palestinian Question
Palestine had always been an issue for every British administration since it was inherited as a League of Nations mandate. In practice, it had been a colony, but a significant military presence in the region could still not prevent clashes and battles between the Jewish Haganah and Arab Palestinian organisations and militias. With the end of WW2, maintaining a large army there was no longer practical and drained funds, while Zionist voices in favor of an independent Israel were getting the spotlight after the events of the Holocaust. To resolve the issue of the inefficient mandate, the colonial government had entered talks with Jewish leaders even before the war, giving rise to the idea of a partition.
In 1946, the question of Palestine's future fell on Prime Minister Eden and his cabinet, and for the first time it truly looked as if that position in the Eastern Mediterranean could not be held anymore. In his time in Churchill's government, Eden's position on the Palestine debate had remained unclear as he preferred to focus on European affairs, but he was not particularly liked by the Zionists. Taking up the position of cabinet leader made him feel he had no choice but to take a side, but he tried to find a compromise nevertheless.
By this point, there were only two real solutions to the Palestinian Question. The first was a united binational state inhabited by both Arabs and Jews, with the additional option of introducing a canton-like system for provinces based on their populations. The second option was a partition of the mandate west of the Jordan into separate states for Jews and Arabs. Both sides had their drawbacks - the former would require cooperation of two groups resentful of each other, but Eden drew attention to the disadvantages of the latter. Even before becoming PM, he had noted full Jewish sovereignty over even a section of Palestine would alienate nearby Muslim states, states that were important to the Empire and its link to India. In addition, he believed an influx of Jewish refugees from Europe combined with only a small state for them would inevitably lead to expansionism on behalf of the proposed Israel.
Jewish migration into the region was becoming an increasingly important issue, with Holocaust survivors and those interned in Cyprus wanting to head to Palestine. The MacDonald White Paper had set a limit on this kind of migration, which led to unrest orchestrated by the Haganah and the Irgun that was aimed at forcing the British to allow unrestricted entry of Jews to the mandate. Full revolt was declared in 1944, and a low-level insurgency waged by these paramilitaries began. It only really took off in late 1945 and early 1946 as over 20.000 troops participated in attacks on military targets. Outposts were raided, even as the presence of Commonwealth troops was gradually reduced.
1946 and 1947 were marked by this "Palestinian Emergency", which also saw the various Jewish militia forces changing allegiances and methods. The Irgun and Lehi, the more radical of the groups, were always at the front of the attacks and were also interested in supporting immigration of Jews through non-legal means. Underground networks that handled transport from Europe and Cyprus south to Palestine were created and often managed by Irgun members and associates. Meanwhile, the more moderate Haganah considered seeking benefits from the UK by assisting in putting down the revolt, but no large scale action or announcement was ever made. Instead, separate groups inside the force fought either with or against the rebels which almost brought both the Haganah and the associated Yishuv to collapse as single units.
Bombings and even assassination attempts were becoming more common, as the government was still believed to be following pro-Arab policies to appease the local populations and the nearby kingdoms alike. Prime Minister Eden, realizing the dire situation, offered to repeal much of the 1939 MacDonald White Paper and allow more to immigrate. Back in the 30s, he had been a critic of the policy himself, but the cautious approach regarding the Muslims meant there was little maneuvering space. To the disappointment of regional Arab leaders, an additional 50.000 Jews - mainly Holocaust survivors - would be allowed to enter the country. Provisions for limiting land granted by Arabs were also changed.
The Zionist insurgency became less intense following the changes His Majesty's Government was effectively forced into making, but now came the much harder job of creating a viable, unpartitioned state. The plan was for "rule of the majority" to be avoided, and for both religious groups to be guaranteed some influence in the government. The first step in achieving that was to ensure the various armed groups operating inside Palestine's borders were all either loyal or out of the picture. Slowly, moderate sectors of the Haganah and local Arab organisations helped the British in forming a Defense Corps, even though in its early days it was still largely comprised by Commonwealth soldiers. However, it became apparent that the one state solution was by now unacceptable to most of the Jewish and Arab organisations.
The cost of maintaining approximately 100.000 member in Mandatory Palestine was a burden for the homeland, and their replacements in the form of loyal paramilitaries were not really enough. In coordination with the UN, Britain made a plan for the country to gain full independence on January 1st, 1949 as a single federal state composed of "cantons". These entities were meant to appease Zionist groups by giving Jews exclusive rights to settle and farm in some - the closest thing to sovereignty they would get. The government itself would be led by a President and a Vice President with alternating religions taking the spots in every four-year term. A Parliament was also created, and religious divisions weren't imposed there in the hopes of greater inter-religious unity. In reality, that was hard to achieve and there would exist a de facto division anyway.
Chaim Weizmann, a prominent Zionist who had previously worked with the British, was appointed as the first Interim President. In reality, British military and civilian authorities still held the real control, as they fought against numerous small insurgencies and prepared to withdraw from the country. However, their military presence would continue to be required even after independence.
Palestine had always been an issue for every British administration since it was inherited as a League of Nations mandate. In practice, it had been a colony, but a significant military presence in the region could still not prevent clashes and battles between the Jewish Haganah and Arab Palestinian organisations and militias. With the end of WW2, maintaining a large army there was no longer practical and drained funds, while Zionist voices in favor of an independent Israel were getting the spotlight after the events of the Holocaust. To resolve the issue of the inefficient mandate, the colonial government had entered talks with Jewish leaders even before the war, giving rise to the idea of a partition.
In 1946, the question of Palestine's future fell on Prime Minister Eden and his cabinet, and for the first time it truly looked as if that position in the Eastern Mediterranean could not be held anymore. In his time in Churchill's government, Eden's position on the Palestine debate had remained unclear as he preferred to focus on European affairs, but he was not particularly liked by the Zionists. Taking up the position of cabinet leader made him feel he had no choice but to take a side, but he tried to find a compromise nevertheless.
By this point, there were only two real solutions to the Palestinian Question. The first was a united binational state inhabited by both Arabs and Jews, with the additional option of introducing a canton-like system for provinces based on their populations. The second option was a partition of the mandate west of the Jordan into separate states for Jews and Arabs. Both sides had their drawbacks - the former would require cooperation of two groups resentful of each other, but Eden drew attention to the disadvantages of the latter. Even before becoming PM, he had noted full Jewish sovereignty over even a section of Palestine would alienate nearby Muslim states, states that were important to the Empire and its link to India. In addition, he believed an influx of Jewish refugees from Europe combined with only a small state for them would inevitably lead to expansionism on behalf of the proposed Israel.
Jewish migration into the region was becoming an increasingly important issue, with Holocaust survivors and those interned in Cyprus wanting to head to Palestine. The MacDonald White Paper had set a limit on this kind of migration, which led to unrest orchestrated by the Haganah and the Irgun that was aimed at forcing the British to allow unrestricted entry of Jews to the mandate. Full revolt was declared in 1944, and a low-level insurgency waged by these paramilitaries began. It only really took off in late 1945 and early 1946 as over 20.000 troops participated in attacks on military targets. Outposts were raided, even as the presence of Commonwealth troops was gradually reduced.
1946 and 1947 were marked by this "Palestinian Emergency", which also saw the various Jewish militia forces changing allegiances and methods. The Irgun and Lehi, the more radical of the groups, were always at the front of the attacks and were also interested in supporting immigration of Jews through non-legal means. Underground networks that handled transport from Europe and Cyprus south to Palestine were created and often managed by Irgun members and associates. Meanwhile, the more moderate Haganah considered seeking benefits from the UK by assisting in putting down the revolt, but no large scale action or announcement was ever made. Instead, separate groups inside the force fought either with or against the rebels which almost brought both the Haganah and the associated Yishuv to collapse as single units.
Bombings and even assassination attempts were becoming more common, as the government was still believed to be following pro-Arab policies to appease the local populations and the nearby kingdoms alike. Prime Minister Eden, realizing the dire situation, offered to repeal much of the 1939 MacDonald White Paper and allow more to immigrate. Back in the 30s, he had been a critic of the policy himself, but the cautious approach regarding the Muslims meant there was little maneuvering space. To the disappointment of regional Arab leaders, an additional 50.000 Jews - mainly Holocaust survivors - would be allowed to enter the country. Provisions for limiting land granted by Arabs were also changed.
The Zionist insurgency became less intense following the changes His Majesty's Government was effectively forced into making, but now came the much harder job of creating a viable, unpartitioned state. The plan was for "rule of the majority" to be avoided, and for both religious groups to be guaranteed some influence in the government. The first step in achieving that was to ensure the various armed groups operating inside Palestine's borders were all either loyal or out of the picture. Slowly, moderate sectors of the Haganah and local Arab organisations helped the British in forming a Defense Corps, even though in its early days it was still largely comprised by Commonwealth soldiers. However, it became apparent that the one state solution was by now unacceptable to most of the Jewish and Arab organisations.
The cost of maintaining approximately 100.000 member in Mandatory Palestine was a burden for the homeland, and their replacements in the form of loyal paramilitaries were not really enough. In coordination with the UN, Britain made a plan for the country to gain full independence on January 1st, 1949 as a single federal state composed of "cantons". These entities were meant to appease Zionist groups by giving Jews exclusive rights to settle and farm in some - the closest thing to sovereignty they would get. The government itself would be led by a President and a Vice President with alternating religions taking the spots in every four-year term. A Parliament was also created, and religious divisions weren't imposed there in the hopes of greater inter-religious unity. In reality, that was hard to achieve and there would exist a de facto division anyway.
Chaim Weizmann, a prominent Zionist who had previously worked with the British, was appointed as the first Interim President. In reality, British military and civilian authorities still held the real control, as they fought against numerous small insurgencies and prepared to withdraw from the country. However, their military presence would continue to be required even after independence.
Chapter 24: The Middle East in the Post-War Period: Levant and North Africa
Chapter 24: The Middle East in the Post-War Period: Levant and North Africa
The end of the Second World War brought a new age for the Middle East, much of which had been part of one European colony or the other for decades. Few nations had managed to avoid becoming colonies, mandates or protectorates and it was typically through strict neutrality or simply getting lucky. Despite that, as the end of the war came closer, most of them declared war on Nazi Germany: Turkey, Saudi Arabia and other Allied-influenced nations were in the United Nations by VE-Day, and they sought to reap the benefits of the post-war organization. None actively participated in these later stages, but the Middle East had been a major theater nonetheless, with campaigns in Egypt, Iraq, Syria and Iran.
The first nation to gain its independence in the 1940s was Syria. Together with Lebanon, it had remained under French control despite promises of self-rule, and by the end of WWII, protests against colonial rule were were gaining traction. Independence had been formally declared on New Year Day of 1944, but French troops were still present, and reinforcements arrived at the request of Charles de Gaulle in May of 1945. Tensions rose further as demonstrators were attacked by the Army, and rumours of martial law in the capital Damascus spread. Things reached a climax on July 8, when Damascus indeed fell under the heel of the Army of the Levant. The Parliament was invaded, and the first elected president Shukri al-Quwatli was captured. A public uproar followed, and three days later Speaker of Parliament Saadallah Al Jabiri called on the Syrian people to take up arms, thus beginning a brief period of violence.
An all-out revolt was now occurring, and despite the French Army's best efforts, they were routed in many locations all across the country. The only secure hold was in Damascus, still holding out. The UK carefully handled the crisis, as Eden didn't to alienate either De Gaulle's France or the Arab world. The result was a UN-approved intervention led by themselves. Its army crossed the Transjordanian border and entered Syria for the second time in the last few years, taking a careful approach so as not to appear to be moving in support of De Gaulle.
The French forces still technically fell under the command of Bernard Paget's command, even though his orders were disregarded. In one of his last actions, he ordered the Army of the Levant to disband and return home, respecting the sovereignty of Syria. After a three day standoff and the personal intervention of De Gaulle, the order was followed, and Syria was recognized by all major powers as a sovereign state on 19 July 1945, soon after the surrender of Germany. Following these events, it was not surprising that there was also a withdrawal from Lebanon and its recognition in December of the same year.
The two countries were democracies, albeit unstable ones. Lebanon, a country which could have very well fallen into a circle of sectarian violence, dodged the bullet with the implementation of the "National Pact": an informal agreement designed to represent the main groups in the country and keep it united. In exchange for both Maronite Christians and Muslims keeping certain positions and seats in legislature, the former had promised not to seek Western intervention and the latter not to seek annexation by Syria. Bechara El Khoury, the country's first President, played a large role in drawing up the Pact and earned fame as the first real leader despite widespread allegations of corruption.
As for Syria, it also began taking the shape of a fledgling democracy. The main political forces were two, the National Party of President Al-Quwatli and the People's Party of Hashim Al-Atassi. Both had the same origin in the Mandate-era National Bloc, but had fallen out. In the 1947 elections, despite a growing sentiment of opposition to Al-Quwatli, the National Party performed quite well and wide-reaching reforms began under his watch, although opposition was still active and waiting for its chance to attack.
Another country to receive independence in the 1940s was the protectorate of Transjordan, the continued rule of which was judged unfeasible after the Palestine issue was resolved. King Abdullah, who had led the country since its very creation, was still harsh on rights like freedom of press and democracy, even though a 16-member assembly was elected every 5 years to assist him in ruling. While British troops were still stationed in small numbers in Transjordan after independence, they were confined to military bases and Abdullah was free to pursue an independent foreign policy. Diplomacy was marked by the unexpected support of Palestinian partition (on the basis the Hashemite kingdom would annex the lands granted to Arabs) and close relations with Iraq owing to the dynastic connection with Faisal II.
Egypt was another country working its way towards sovereignty. For years, there had been a delicate balance of power between the British Residency, the King (Farouk I since 1936) and the ruling Wafd Party which enjoyed vast popularity mainly from Egyptian nationalists. However, its failure to stand up for itself and its acceptance of the 1936 one-sided treaty with Britain had led it towards a gradual decline. Towards the end of the war in 1945, new elections were held and confirmed Ahmad Mahir Pasha as the new Prime Minister belonging to the Saadist Institutional Party, a rising liberal force. One of his main priorities was to fight the Muslim Brotherhood, a powerful and radical Sunni organization which had its origins and strongest base of support in Egypt. This was a difficult task, however, and the crackdown actually resulted in a failed assassination attempt on Mahir. He was determined to continue the fight against it no matter what, but his stubbornness would soon cost him popular support as another new party appeared as a major player. The Liberal Constitutional Party was another faction that split from Wafd, and its constant criticism of Mahir's policies helped win the favor of the Egyptian people.
Egypt was involved in diplomatic affairs as well, namely the negotiations over the future of Libya. After protests from locals and even a United Nations Resolution, the UK would eventually have to make a choice on the future of the country. Its intentions were announced on February 16, 1948, when Eden formalized the agreement with Idris as the leader of the Senussi Order and made clear that Cyrenaica would become independent with Idris as its King once the conditions were favorable. Egypt was interested in influence over the lands to the west of it, and was thus significantly involved in the diplomacy to become allies with Idris and his future kingdom. Despite that, the question of Tripolitania, the other half that formed Libya, still remained unclear. Fears of Senussi dominance had previously discouraged Tripolitanians from striving for union, but Italian rule and the recent events had made the voice of the union supporters all the more audible. By 1949, London was continuing to stall and many wondered if it intended to keep Tripolitania for the foreseeable future.
The end of the Second World War brought a new age for the Middle East, much of which had been part of one European colony or the other for decades. Few nations had managed to avoid becoming colonies, mandates or protectorates and it was typically through strict neutrality or simply getting lucky. Despite that, as the end of the war came closer, most of them declared war on Nazi Germany: Turkey, Saudi Arabia and other Allied-influenced nations were in the United Nations by VE-Day, and they sought to reap the benefits of the post-war organization. None actively participated in these later stages, but the Middle East had been a major theater nonetheless, with campaigns in Egypt, Iraq, Syria and Iran.
The first nation to gain its independence in the 1940s was Syria. Together with Lebanon, it had remained under French control despite promises of self-rule, and by the end of WWII, protests against colonial rule were were gaining traction. Independence had been formally declared on New Year Day of 1944, but French troops were still present, and reinforcements arrived at the request of Charles de Gaulle in May of 1945. Tensions rose further as demonstrators were attacked by the Army, and rumours of martial law in the capital Damascus spread. Things reached a climax on July 8, when Damascus indeed fell under the heel of the Army of the Levant. The Parliament was invaded, and the first elected president Shukri al-Quwatli was captured. A public uproar followed, and three days later Speaker of Parliament Saadallah Al Jabiri called on the Syrian people to take up arms, thus beginning a brief period of violence.
An all-out revolt was now occurring, and despite the French Army's best efforts, they were routed in many locations all across the country. The only secure hold was in Damascus, still holding out. The UK carefully handled the crisis, as Eden didn't to alienate either De Gaulle's France or the Arab world. The result was a UN-approved intervention led by themselves. Its army crossed the Transjordanian border and entered Syria for the second time in the last few years, taking a careful approach so as not to appear to be moving in support of De Gaulle.
The French forces still technically fell under the command of Bernard Paget's command, even though his orders were disregarded. In one of his last actions, he ordered the Army of the Levant to disband and return home, respecting the sovereignty of Syria. After a three day standoff and the personal intervention of De Gaulle, the order was followed, and Syria was recognized by all major powers as a sovereign state on 19 July 1945, soon after the surrender of Germany. Following these events, it was not surprising that there was also a withdrawal from Lebanon and its recognition in December of the same year.
The two countries were democracies, albeit unstable ones. Lebanon, a country which could have very well fallen into a circle of sectarian violence, dodged the bullet with the implementation of the "National Pact": an informal agreement designed to represent the main groups in the country and keep it united. In exchange for both Maronite Christians and Muslims keeping certain positions and seats in legislature, the former had promised not to seek Western intervention and the latter not to seek annexation by Syria. Bechara El Khoury, the country's first President, played a large role in drawing up the Pact and earned fame as the first real leader despite widespread allegations of corruption.
As for Syria, it also began taking the shape of a fledgling democracy. The main political forces were two, the National Party of President Al-Quwatli and the People's Party of Hashim Al-Atassi. Both had the same origin in the Mandate-era National Bloc, but had fallen out. In the 1947 elections, despite a growing sentiment of opposition to Al-Quwatli, the National Party performed quite well and wide-reaching reforms began under his watch, although opposition was still active and waiting for its chance to attack.
Another country to receive independence in the 1940s was the protectorate of Transjordan, the continued rule of which was judged unfeasible after the Palestine issue was resolved. King Abdullah, who had led the country since its very creation, was still harsh on rights like freedom of press and democracy, even though a 16-member assembly was elected every 5 years to assist him in ruling. While British troops were still stationed in small numbers in Transjordan after independence, they were confined to military bases and Abdullah was free to pursue an independent foreign policy. Diplomacy was marked by the unexpected support of Palestinian partition (on the basis the Hashemite kingdom would annex the lands granted to Arabs) and close relations with Iraq owing to the dynastic connection with Faisal II.
Egypt was another country working its way towards sovereignty. For years, there had been a delicate balance of power between the British Residency, the King (Farouk I since 1936) and the ruling Wafd Party which enjoyed vast popularity mainly from Egyptian nationalists. However, its failure to stand up for itself and its acceptance of the 1936 one-sided treaty with Britain had led it towards a gradual decline. Towards the end of the war in 1945, new elections were held and confirmed Ahmad Mahir Pasha as the new Prime Minister belonging to the Saadist Institutional Party, a rising liberal force. One of his main priorities was to fight the Muslim Brotherhood, a powerful and radical Sunni organization which had its origins and strongest base of support in Egypt. This was a difficult task, however, and the crackdown actually resulted in a failed assassination attempt on Mahir. He was determined to continue the fight against it no matter what, but his stubbornness would soon cost him popular support as another new party appeared as a major player. The Liberal Constitutional Party was another faction that split from Wafd, and its constant criticism of Mahir's policies helped win the favor of the Egyptian people.
Egypt was involved in diplomatic affairs as well, namely the negotiations over the future of Libya. After protests from locals and even a United Nations Resolution, the UK would eventually have to make a choice on the future of the country. Its intentions were announced on February 16, 1948, when Eden formalized the agreement with Idris as the leader of the Senussi Order and made clear that Cyrenaica would become independent with Idris as its King once the conditions were favorable. Egypt was interested in influence over the lands to the west of it, and was thus significantly involved in the diplomacy to become allies with Idris and his future kingdom. Despite that, the question of Tripolitania, the other half that formed Libya, still remained unclear. Fears of Senussi dominance had previously discouraged Tripolitanians from striving for union, but Italian rule and the recent events had made the voice of the union supporters all the more audible. By 1949, London was continuing to stall and many wondered if it intended to keep Tripolitania for the foreseeable future.
Chapter 25: The Middle East in the Post-War Period: The Gulf and Arabia
Chapter 25: The Middle East in the Post-War Period: The Gulf and Arabia
Iran, the nation in which the assassination of Operation Long Jump took place, was officially neutral in the Second World War. However, fears of Germany sympathies but most importantly the desire to protect the oil and supply lines into Russia had prompted the UK and the Soviet Union to invade the country in late August of 1941, even as Operation Barbarossa was in full swing. Mohammad Reza Pahlavi replaced his father as Shah after his abdication, and for the next few years, Iran was a critical point for flow of supplies and a spy den. After the triple assassination, surprisingly little changed there, besides the crackdown on suspected spies, sympathizers as well as the general reinforcement of the north with Red Army and NKVD units. On December 6 1943, a small cell of German allies which had aided the arrival and departure of Skorzeny's squad by plane was discovered near Qum - all of its members were sentenced to gulag camps for life.
Both Britain and the USSR had pledged to withdraw their troops from their respective occupation sectors in Iran after the war ended. However, in a violation of the tripartite agreement signed between the three, the Red Army refused to withdraw entirely. On October 30 1945, the military authority in the northwest "encouraged" a "popular revolution" that led to the establishment of temporary communist governments for Iranian Azerbaijan and Kurdistan. One might have thought this was done with a simple expansionist motive, but in reality it was more complicated than that. Behind the scenes, Molotov intended to use the northwestern provinces as leverage for the negotiation of a new Soviet-Iranian oil treaty. Ahmad Qavam, Prime Minister of Iran, tried to find a solution, but stated there would first have to be an election of a new Majlis to recognize the treaty - something that would require the end of the occupation first.
A crisis unfolded as the two states were unwilling to compromise in their demands. Western intervention through the United Nations occurred, but neither Britain nor the US was ready to sacrifice the cooperation with the Soviet Union over Iran. In addition, the Red Army put up a show of force with militarization, propaganda etc., showing it was clearly preparing for a new occupation. On January 26, Qavam folded. The Soviet - Iranian Oil Treaty was signed giving the USSR a 51% ownership of all oil fields in the northern half of the country and establishing a "diplomatic consultation office" in Tehran that was meant to ensure Iranian compliance both with the treaty and the Union's general policy goals. A few days later, the communist states in Azerbaijan and Kurdistan were dissolved.
Democracy continued nevertheless, and through the events of the Iranian crisis emerged Mohammad Mossadegh as a leading figure of the opposition to Soviet encroachment. Even though Qavam's Democrat Party of Iran was dominant in electoral politics through not-so-legitimate methods, opposition led by Mossadegh and a collection of socialist parties continued to rally support as seen in 1947. As for the USSR, it was satisfied as long as Qavam could keep the Majlis in check and enforce the terms which is exactly what he did. The legislature was not particularly happy about it, but the Soviet aggression in 1946 had put them in their place. Another factor in the already complex structure of Iranian politics was the Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, who ever since taking power in 1941 was trying to expand his hold over the country. By 1949, he was considering calling for a new Constituent Assembly to amend the constitution and grant him more power, and the only ones stopping him from doing that were American and British advisors. They thought it unwise to shift to authoritarianism, and that was confirmed after communiques to the US State Department and the London Foreign Office.
One of Iran's few neighbors free from foreign domination was the Kingdom of Iraq, the Hashemite domain that had almost slid into the pro-Axis camp with the Golden Square coup before being occupied by the British once again. It returned to its state of formal independence after withdrawal in 1946, but there were still problems to deal with. Such a problem was the Kurdish minority in the north that was encouraged by the creation of a Kurdish communist state in Iran, and the arrival of Mustafa Barzani there was inspiring a revolutionary sentiment. Barzani had already led a failed revolt towards the end of WWII, and was now operating underground - possibly under Soviet supervision. A more pressing matter, however, was the increasing discontent of the working class and many political groups in general with the conditions they lived in and the ties to the UK. One could say the circumstances were ripe for a socialist revolution, and in the summer of 1948 many indeed took to the streets to protest and riot. Where the country would head was anyone's guess.
The late 40s saw the rise of a new movement in the Middle East, the Arab Ba'ath ideology. The Ba'ath Party was originally founded in Syria in 1940 by Zaki al-Arsuzi and was built on Arab nationalism, while the Ihya Movement of Michel Aflaq also gave itself the same name three years later. Despite their similarities, the two movements disagreed on some matters such as the Golden Square regime in Iraq. What united them in the end was the 1945 Syrian Crisis, as they both played a role in the protests and revolts. With the independence of Syria, Aflaq became leader of a united Ba'ath Party, while Al-Arsuzi was gradually sidelined. The ideology, focusing on the unity of the Arab nation and socialist elements, also had success in Iraq under Abd al Khaliq al Khudayri who founded the local branch in 1947. Not long after, Ba'ath began spreading throughout the Arab world.
Things were surprisingly quiet in the rest of the Gulf region. Yemen, after having consolidated rule inside its borders, was now facing the rise of modern nationalism. Saudi Arabia began to exploit its massive oil reserves to the east as the world powers watched, and the British protectorates dotted along the coast of the Gulf and the Arabian Sea were examining the prospect of independence for the first time.
Iran, the nation in which the assassination of Operation Long Jump took place, was officially neutral in the Second World War. However, fears of Germany sympathies but most importantly the desire to protect the oil and supply lines into Russia had prompted the UK and the Soviet Union to invade the country in late August of 1941, even as Operation Barbarossa was in full swing. Mohammad Reza Pahlavi replaced his father as Shah after his abdication, and for the next few years, Iran was a critical point for flow of supplies and a spy den. After the triple assassination, surprisingly little changed there, besides the crackdown on suspected spies, sympathizers as well as the general reinforcement of the north with Red Army and NKVD units. On December 6 1943, a small cell of German allies which had aided the arrival and departure of Skorzeny's squad by plane was discovered near Qum - all of its members were sentenced to gulag camps for life.
Both Britain and the USSR had pledged to withdraw their troops from their respective occupation sectors in Iran after the war ended. However, in a violation of the tripartite agreement signed between the three, the Red Army refused to withdraw entirely. On October 30 1945, the military authority in the northwest "encouraged" a "popular revolution" that led to the establishment of temporary communist governments for Iranian Azerbaijan and Kurdistan. One might have thought this was done with a simple expansionist motive, but in reality it was more complicated than that. Behind the scenes, Molotov intended to use the northwestern provinces as leverage for the negotiation of a new Soviet-Iranian oil treaty. Ahmad Qavam, Prime Minister of Iran, tried to find a solution, but stated there would first have to be an election of a new Majlis to recognize the treaty - something that would require the end of the occupation first.
A crisis unfolded as the two states were unwilling to compromise in their demands. Western intervention through the United Nations occurred, but neither Britain nor the US was ready to sacrifice the cooperation with the Soviet Union over Iran. In addition, the Red Army put up a show of force with militarization, propaganda etc., showing it was clearly preparing for a new occupation. On January 26, Qavam folded. The Soviet - Iranian Oil Treaty was signed giving the USSR a 51% ownership of all oil fields in the northern half of the country and establishing a "diplomatic consultation office" in Tehran that was meant to ensure Iranian compliance both with the treaty and the Union's general policy goals. A few days later, the communist states in Azerbaijan and Kurdistan were dissolved.
Democracy continued nevertheless, and through the events of the Iranian crisis emerged Mohammad Mossadegh as a leading figure of the opposition to Soviet encroachment. Even though Qavam's Democrat Party of Iran was dominant in electoral politics through not-so-legitimate methods, opposition led by Mossadegh and a collection of socialist parties continued to rally support as seen in 1947. As for the USSR, it was satisfied as long as Qavam could keep the Majlis in check and enforce the terms which is exactly what he did. The legislature was not particularly happy about it, but the Soviet aggression in 1946 had put them in their place. Another factor in the already complex structure of Iranian politics was the Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, who ever since taking power in 1941 was trying to expand his hold over the country. By 1949, he was considering calling for a new Constituent Assembly to amend the constitution and grant him more power, and the only ones stopping him from doing that were American and British advisors. They thought it unwise to shift to authoritarianism, and that was confirmed after communiques to the US State Department and the London Foreign Office.
One of Iran's few neighbors free from foreign domination was the Kingdom of Iraq, the Hashemite domain that had almost slid into the pro-Axis camp with the Golden Square coup before being occupied by the British once again. It returned to its state of formal independence after withdrawal in 1946, but there were still problems to deal with. Such a problem was the Kurdish minority in the north that was encouraged by the creation of a Kurdish communist state in Iran, and the arrival of Mustafa Barzani there was inspiring a revolutionary sentiment. Barzani had already led a failed revolt towards the end of WWII, and was now operating underground - possibly under Soviet supervision. A more pressing matter, however, was the increasing discontent of the working class and many political groups in general with the conditions they lived in and the ties to the UK. One could say the circumstances were ripe for a socialist revolution, and in the summer of 1948 many indeed took to the streets to protest and riot. Where the country would head was anyone's guess.
The late 40s saw the rise of a new movement in the Middle East, the Arab Ba'ath ideology. The Ba'ath Party was originally founded in Syria in 1940 by Zaki al-Arsuzi and was built on Arab nationalism, while the Ihya Movement of Michel Aflaq also gave itself the same name three years later. Despite their similarities, the two movements disagreed on some matters such as the Golden Square regime in Iraq. What united them in the end was the 1945 Syrian Crisis, as they both played a role in the protests and revolts. With the independence of Syria, Aflaq became leader of a united Ba'ath Party, while Al-Arsuzi was gradually sidelined. The ideology, focusing on the unity of the Arab nation and socialist elements, also had success in Iraq under Abd al Khaliq al Khudayri who founded the local branch in 1947. Not long after, Ba'ath began spreading throughout the Arab world.
Things were surprisingly quiet in the rest of the Gulf region. Yemen, after having consolidated rule inside its borders, was now facing the rise of modern nationalism. Saudi Arabia began to exploit its massive oil reserves to the east as the world powers watched, and the British protectorates dotted along the coast of the Gulf and the Arabian Sea were examining the prospect of independence for the first time.
Chapter 26: The Beginnings of Decolonization
Chapter 26: The Beginnings of Decolonization
In 1948, the Dutch East Indies were being ravaged by the third year of armed struggle against their former overlords. The main fight was taking place in the islands of Java and Sumatra, where the Republican forces were being encouraged to break out of their pockets in the interior and attack major cities and population centers. An example of this was in Palembang, which on 11 January 1948 was attacked from multiple sides by a Republican army that had slowly been establishing itself around it. The attack was a profound success, and Palembang became the center of power for a provisional government which tried to exert itself on local commanders trying to make a name for themselves and operating independently.
Beyond the main front, there were more points of interest to the east. The island of Borneo had been considered safely under anti-Republican control for a while now, so much so that the Commonwealth administration was implemented in it. By 1948, that secure hold was slipping away - Australian forces withdrew in spring, and the withdrawal was followed by an increase in guerrilla activities on the island. It was especially concerning to the Netherlands that many of the local sultans were being captured and even executed by Republican forces for their role in cooperating with the colony.
The long term effects of the Indonesian War of Independence began to be felt outside the boundaries of the archipelago, not only in the homeland of countries like Britain and the Netherlands, but also in other Southeast Asian countries. The first area to feel the shockwave was the British colony of Malaya, which had also been occupied by the Japanese for three years. There, the Malayan People's Anti-Japanese Army had operated throughout the occupation, often with British support despite its communist nature. When the Royal Army arrived again in Malaya, they quickly proceeded to re-establish control under military administration and disarm active MPAJA units. This endeavour was not entirely successful, as many weapon stockpiles belonging to former members remained hidden should a new insurgency begin. Meanwhile, a drawn out process began for the creation of a "Malayan Union", but disagreements from the ethnic Malays caused problems.
What changed the balance was the influx of Indonesian refugees fleeing the war to the southeast, with the news of the battles further radicalizing the Communist Party that had already been protesting working conditions in Malaya. The Chinese population that had supported the anti-imperialist rhetoric of the MCP also took part in these protests that were typically dealt with by force and sparked further unrest. Finally, on May 1948, independence activists - socialists and right-wingers alike - headed inland, retook the arms they had hidden in stockpiles and declared the formation of the Malayan National Army. The colony was facing a revolt, and a powerful one at that.
The MNA insurgency was a low intensity revolt, as the rebels were aware taking all of the country in one fell swoop would be difficult. There was more activity in the northern Unfederated Malay States, autonomous entities like Kedah and Kelantan which had previously been under Thai occupation. One region that would receive more attention than the MNA revolt, though, was Indochina. There, the swift Anglo - Chinese occupation in the summer of 1945 had prevented widespread unrest, but underlying tensions persisted.
The VNQDĐ had been one of the main Vietnamese nationalist movements, modeled after the Chinese Kuomintang. In recent years, especially after the Japanese occupation, the Indochinese Communist Party had eclipsed the VNQDĐ as the dominant force striving for independence and continued doing so after the IJA was replaced by the British and the Chinese Nationalists. Initially, a Military Administration similar to other colonies was established, but London together with delegates from France began negotiating Indochina's future in 1946 with leading local members from all major movements.
The idea was for a "French Union" to be created, a system that would ensure proper representation for all French colonies. Protectorate status was the initial offer for the different parts comprising Indochina, but was generally rejected by the radicalised ICP. In the end, a historic compromise was reached on May 6 in which De Gaulle's France backed down and the three Indochinese states would receive sovereignty while still being formal members of the Union Française. This would allow them to make their own decisions on domestic and foreign policy, maintain their own military under some supervision, and send representatives to a special Assembly elected from colonies on top of that. The Assembly of the Union would be comprised of delegates from all over the world, and would have the jurisdiction to make certain binding decisions for all the nations it encompassed. While Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia were initially the exception due to their sovereignty, their model became an attractive solution for other colonies seeking independence.
The only issue was, it's hard to satisfy everyone, especially in geopolitics. No sooner had the Union treaty been arranged than a large hardliner fraction of the ICP headed out from the cities and commenced a guerrilla campaign in the jungle. Calling itself the continuation of the Viet Minh, it allied with smaller Laotian and Cambodian radical movements to fight against French troops and the local national armies. The insurgency was a low-level one, with Viet Minh units relying on smaller rural communities to be supplied and be provided with temporary strongholds. To gain legitimacy, the communists declared a rival government, the People's Republic of Vietnam with a provisional seat in Lai Chau, while the pro-French regimes were further reinforced and even attempted to hold democratic elections. In these elections, the remnants of the communist parties that had remained loyal performed surprisingly well as they shifted towards moderate beliefs. Broad coalitions became the standard for as long as the insurgency raged, in what was now a common sign of national unity in Europe and East Asia.
In 1948, the Dutch East Indies were being ravaged by the third year of armed struggle against their former overlords. The main fight was taking place in the islands of Java and Sumatra, where the Republican forces were being encouraged to break out of their pockets in the interior and attack major cities and population centers. An example of this was in Palembang, which on 11 January 1948 was attacked from multiple sides by a Republican army that had slowly been establishing itself around it. The attack was a profound success, and Palembang became the center of power for a provisional government which tried to exert itself on local commanders trying to make a name for themselves and operating independently.
Beyond the main front, there were more points of interest to the east. The island of Borneo had been considered safely under anti-Republican control for a while now, so much so that the Commonwealth administration was implemented in it. By 1948, that secure hold was slipping away - Australian forces withdrew in spring, and the withdrawal was followed by an increase in guerrilla activities on the island. It was especially concerning to the Netherlands that many of the local sultans were being captured and even executed by Republican forces for their role in cooperating with the colony.
The long term effects of the Indonesian War of Independence began to be felt outside the boundaries of the archipelago, not only in the homeland of countries like Britain and the Netherlands, but also in other Southeast Asian countries. The first area to feel the shockwave was the British colony of Malaya, which had also been occupied by the Japanese for three years. There, the Malayan People's Anti-Japanese Army had operated throughout the occupation, often with British support despite its communist nature. When the Royal Army arrived again in Malaya, they quickly proceeded to re-establish control under military administration and disarm active MPAJA units. This endeavour was not entirely successful, as many weapon stockpiles belonging to former members remained hidden should a new insurgency begin. Meanwhile, a drawn out process began for the creation of a "Malayan Union", but disagreements from the ethnic Malays caused problems.
What changed the balance was the influx of Indonesian refugees fleeing the war to the southeast, with the news of the battles further radicalizing the Communist Party that had already been protesting working conditions in Malaya. The Chinese population that had supported the anti-imperialist rhetoric of the MCP also took part in these protests that were typically dealt with by force and sparked further unrest. Finally, on May 1948, independence activists - socialists and right-wingers alike - headed inland, retook the arms they had hidden in stockpiles and declared the formation of the Malayan National Army. The colony was facing a revolt, and a powerful one at that.
The MNA insurgency was a low intensity revolt, as the rebels were aware taking all of the country in one fell swoop would be difficult. There was more activity in the northern Unfederated Malay States, autonomous entities like Kedah and Kelantan which had previously been under Thai occupation. One region that would receive more attention than the MNA revolt, though, was Indochina. There, the swift Anglo - Chinese occupation in the summer of 1945 had prevented widespread unrest, but underlying tensions persisted.
The VNQDĐ had been one of the main Vietnamese nationalist movements, modeled after the Chinese Kuomintang. In recent years, especially after the Japanese occupation, the Indochinese Communist Party had eclipsed the VNQDĐ as the dominant force striving for independence and continued doing so after the IJA was replaced by the British and the Chinese Nationalists. Initially, a Military Administration similar to other colonies was established, but London together with delegates from France began negotiating Indochina's future in 1946 with leading local members from all major movements.
The idea was for a "French Union" to be created, a system that would ensure proper representation for all French colonies. Protectorate status was the initial offer for the different parts comprising Indochina, but was generally rejected by the radicalised ICP. In the end, a historic compromise was reached on May 6 in which De Gaulle's France backed down and the three Indochinese states would receive sovereignty while still being formal members of the Union Française. This would allow them to make their own decisions on domestic and foreign policy, maintain their own military under some supervision, and send representatives to a special Assembly elected from colonies on top of that. The Assembly of the Union would be comprised of delegates from all over the world, and would have the jurisdiction to make certain binding decisions for all the nations it encompassed. While Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia were initially the exception due to their sovereignty, their model became an attractive solution for other colonies seeking independence.
The only issue was, it's hard to satisfy everyone, especially in geopolitics. No sooner had the Union treaty been arranged than a large hardliner fraction of the ICP headed out from the cities and commenced a guerrilla campaign in the jungle. Calling itself the continuation of the Viet Minh, it allied with smaller Laotian and Cambodian radical movements to fight against French troops and the local national armies. The insurgency was a low-level one, with Viet Minh units relying on smaller rural communities to be supplied and be provided with temporary strongholds. To gain legitimacy, the communists declared a rival government, the People's Republic of Vietnam with a provisional seat in Lai Chau, while the pro-French regimes were further reinforced and even attempted to hold democratic elections. In these elections, the remnants of the communist parties that had remained loyal performed surprisingly well as they shifted towards moderate beliefs. Broad coalitions became the standard for as long as the insurgency raged, in what was now a common sign of national unity in Europe and East Asia.
He will likely be on the moderate side of the communist party, participating in electoral politics and probably becoming one of the left wing's leaders. That does bring up interesting possibilities for the radical rebel leadership, though...
To be honest, the rebels will probably be handily defeated. Two of the brains behind the military and political decisions of the Viet Minh OTL (Ho Chi Minh and Vo Nguyen Giap) are moderates. The loss of two chief leaders of the movement will weakened them substantially not to mention the hard position that they're in ITT.