An Unexpected Prince

[Derek Pullem]

So far in this TL, we have an initial POD of James II having the prescience to have full audience for the birth of James III followed up by James II death (two separate unrelated PODs, but for the sake of argument call it one).

From that, we get the following massive changes that happen for absolutely no reason:

Anne's miscarriage streak is halted to give birth to two healthy heirs.
Maria Antonia gives birth to a healthy boy, then lives
Max Emanuel dies.
Eugene of Savoy catapults to top of military a decade early.
Carlos II dies a decade early.

Apparently, I'm the only one to have an issue with all that.

Now, let's examine the Bourbon deaths.

Le Grande Dauphin and his wife (who has, in this ATL, been changed) stop their carriage to talk to a priest (who they did not know - just a freak occurrence) who has just administered to a small pox victim. Wham, bam, the Dauphin is dead. The royal family (unchanged from OTL) contracts measles during travels associated with the funeral/mourning.

20 years of completely altered continental war, events, circumstances happen between initial POD and the Bourbon deaths. I'm 5 ft 2 in tall, 59 yr old, and have an amazing 5 inch vertical leap. I have as much chance of playing in the NBA and dunking a basketball as that sequence of events happening sans the appearance of alien space bats.

But y'all have a problem with me making changes for the sake of change. (edit - that should read y'all are charging me with making change for the sake of change. I charge y'all with keeping things the same just to keep them the same, for no other reason than convenience, against rational logic. This isn't a butterfly flapping a wing. It's a typhoon blowing through)

OK, then. Should I await the appearance of Napoleon III?

Actually the audience was only slightly different - Anne could probably have attended IOTL if she had wished.
Anne's OTL son is not due to die until 1700 - so it is only one additional healthy(?) heir
Maria Antonia did give birth to a boy ahead of schedule- we don't know how healthy yet - she didn't die on schedule. She did manage a live birth IOTL after 1688 - here the marriage which was made in 1685 delivers early.
Given that Maximillian has died - the musket ball that should have hit Eugene found its way to him - this may have changed Maria Antonia's activities considerably. Certainly she has missed two pregnancies.
Eugene has the benefit of no injury and stepping into Max's shoes in Serbia and not losing Belgrade. he was popular IOTL - ITTL he's the new Alexander. Max had the command on the Rhine after Serbia - why not Eugene who was more successful.
Carlos II dying early is not a shock - it was viewed even at the time as a minor miracle he made it to 35.

The Bourbons - yeah it's co-incidence. Would you rather they all died from the plague which was endemic in Europe at this time?

 

[Valena]

The Bourbons - yeah it's co-incidence. Would you rather they all died from the plague which was endemic in Europe at this time?

I'm thinking that given TTL Le Grand Dauphin has his activities changed and is dragged along for hunts his TTL second wife enjoyed, he can perish of pneumonia in February 1709. Which can be seen (along with the unusually cold winter) as the divine punishment for Louis XIV. That would be a perfect thing and no cries about "fantasy" or stuff like this.

 

[unprincipled peter]

Actually the audience was only slightly different - Anne could probably have attended IOTL if she had wished.
Anne's OTL son is not due to die until 1700 - so it is only one additional healthy(?) heir
Maria Antonia did give birth to a boy ahead of schedule- we don't know how healthy yet - she didn't die on schedule. She did manage a live birth IOTL after 1688 - here the marriage which was made in 1685 delivers early.
Given that Maximillian has died - the musket ball that should have hit Eugene found its way to him - this may have changed Maria Antonia's activities considerably. Certainly she has missed two pregnancies.
Eugene has the benefit of no injury and stepping into Max's shoes in Serbia and not losing Belgrade. he was popular IOTL - ITTL he's the new Alexander. Max had the command on the Rhine after Serbia - why not Eugene who was more successful.
Carlos II dying early is not a shock - it was viewed even at the time as a minor miracle he made it to 35.

The Bourbons - yeah it's co-incidence. Would you rather they all died from the plague which was endemic in Europe at this time?

My point was that a lot of different things/PODs are happening for no reason. Yeah, Carlos could have died earlier, but he didn't. It's my opinion that changes should have a reason.

I'm pointing out the irony (don't know if that's exactly the right word) that people who are so willing to accept these changes are seemingly not willing to accept a rational Bourbon change. I'm accused of wanting change for the sake of change by folks who are ignoring all these random changes which have occurred just because the author wanted it to.

I don't want a mass die-off of Bourbons. Sure, it could happen. No denying that at all. If it happens, it happens. I'll accept it. More than wanting the fresh angle that should result, though, I don't want to see a pre-destined 'the more things change, the more they stay the same'.

 

[The Professor]

I didn't mean to include you in my outburst. You recognized the validity of my point early on.

I aimed my post at those who seemed to think it silly to think the Bourbon line of deaths are highly likely to be altered. Massive changes have consequences.

My opinion is that, having made massive changes, don't take the lazy route of having things remain the same. If you want to listen to those who would have a hurricane blow through, yet have the lawn ornaments remain in place while the house is leveled, have at it.

I had no problem with your complaint about things being exactly the same but I do with the implication that everyone born after the POD should be different. The second was what I was arguing against when I said change for change sake.

 

[unprincipled peter]

I had no problem with your complaint about things being exactly the same but I do with the implication that everyone born after the POD should be different. The second was what I was arguing against when I said change for change sake.

Let's take OTL Louis XV as an example. The daily routine of le Petit Dauphin is likely to be massively changed. Therefore it is unrealistic to expect sexual routine to be the same and the same egg/sperm combination to be the same, resulting in the same person. It is NOT change for the sake of change. It is recognizing that people who are born in a changed situation are not going to be the same as OTL.

In the same TL, people in regions that are relatively unaffected can reasonably be expected to have the same offspring.

It is not I who wants something just for the sake of it, but you (and others) who want things to be the same just for the sake of it. Change should be the expected outcome.

That said, I've said all I have to say on the matter, so I eagerly await the next installment.

 

[Derek Pullem]

Let's take OTL Louis XV as an example. The daily routine of le Petit Dauphin is likely to be massively changed. Therefore it is unrealistic to expect sexual routine to be the same and the same egg/sperm combination to be the same, resulting in the same person. It is NOT change for the sake of change. It is recognizing that people who are born in a changed situation are not going to be the same as OTL..

But siblings, even half-siblings carry alot of similarities - I know my brother and I are very similar in appearance and attitude if not in experiences.

 

[The Professor]

Let's take OTL Louis XV as an example. The daily routine of le Petit Dauphin is likely to be massively changed. Therefore it is unrealistic to expect sexual routine to be the same and the same egg/sperm combination to be the same, resulting in the same person. It is NOT change for the sake of change. It is recognizing that people who are born in a changed situation are not going to be the same as OTL.

In the same TL, people in regions that are relatively unaffected can reasonably be expected to have the same offspring.

It is not I who wants something just for the sake of it, but you (and others) who want things to be the same just for the sake of it. Change should be the expected outcome.

That said, I've said all I have to say on the matter, so I eagerly await the next installment.

I'm not asking for things to be exactly the same though. I just take issue that you expect everyone to be completely different despite sharing a high proportion of genes and the same upbringing. You're expecting a different pebble to cause a completely different avalanche, whereas I'm willing to concede the avalanche will be similar.

 

[VVD0D95]

On that note how long should this current war last for? As France should realistically be driving forward now

 

[unprincipled peter]

I'm not asking for things to be exactly the same though. I just take issue that you expect everyone to be completely different despite sharing a high proportion of genes and the same upbringing. You're expecting a different pebble to cause a completely different avalanche, whereas I'm willing to concede the avalanche will be similar.

I never said the young Bourbons will be radically different. The sexes, date of birth may very well be different. The personalities may be similar, they might not (I have a wide variety of personalities/skill set amongst my 8 brothers). IF you avoid the mass die-off, the OTL Louis XV generation upbringing will be massively different. Avoiding a regency makes things massively different. le Grand and/or le Petit Dauphin assuming the throne makes things massively different. Just combining the War of Spanish Succession and the 9 Years War makes things massively different for France, and that's before we know the outcome, or even factoring in a different England and a different Dutch Republic (they suffered a huge decline as a result of WoSS). The avalanche is going to be different.
But enough. We can bicker back and forth for days and sidetrack the thread. You can believe what you will, and I'll do the same.

 

[unprincipled peter]

On that note how long should this current war last for? As France should realistically be driving forward now

my opinion is that without England and Dutch Republic in the fight, the 9YW will be a much shorter, successful war for France. The only thing that gives Austria hope is that Eugene has taken the helm. There's only so much one man can do. But, you've gone and combined the WoSS in with it.

You've got three theaters:
Rhine - this should have been a French success already, but now you've given them a belated win there.
Italy - likewise, I think France should have done better there, but you've given Austria a leg up. Has Savoy made any difference there?
Spain - again, I don't agree with the results so far. Without the maritime powers and their navies, Austria has no way to aid the pro Wittelsbach forces. France should have easily made good headway there. With the Spanish throne on the line, and no success in Italy, France should have abandoned Italy, and made Spain a much larger front. With the Rhine in their pocket, this front will be a large one, and the Wittelsbachs have only native forces to rely on.

War weariness will be felt everywhere. Austria at this point will be relying on English/Dutch financing. With France making no overt moves in Netherlands, and England having no real reason to jump into the war, English/Dutch support may be waning.

I'd wind it up shortly with a Bourbon on the Spanish Throne, France getting it Rhine border, Austria with Italy for Charles, and the Wittelsbachs getting Netherlands. Savoy isn't going to be able to dislodge Austria from Milan, so maybe they get Sardinia or Sicily. Sounds like right back to OTL results, but it makes the most sense.

If you want a France screw, you have a famine coming up (although affects may be alleviated somewhat by France's ports not being blockaded). IF Wittelsbachs are holding their own in Spain, it's the only thing I see knocking France down enough to accept less. Results in France having it's way on the Rhine, Austria getting Italy, and Wittelsbachs getting the rest of Spain.

 

[unprincipled peter]

what results do you want? That will dictate the length and conduct of the war. With France's fortunes on the rise, they aren't going to settle for minimal gains. So if you want them to get nil, it's going to take several more years for them to get discouraged enough to settle for nil, or to lose ground. English/Dutch getting involved shortens that time. If, like me, you want to see France make good gains, I think a collapse on the part of the Alliance will happen quickly.

If you want to make things interesting, split off Catalonia under a Bourbon King. That sets up plenty of friction for additional conflict down the road.

 

[Shiva]

what results do you want? That will dictate the length and conduct of the war. With France's fortunes on the rise, they aren't going to settle for minimal gains. So if you want them to get nil, it's going to take several more years for them to get discouraged enough to settle for nil, or to lose ground. English/Dutch getting involved shortens that time. If, like me, you want to see France make good gains, I think a collapse on the part of the Alliance will happen quickly.

If you want to make things interesting, split off Catalonia under a Bourbon King. That sets up plenty of friction for additional conflict down the road.

It might make more sense, at least if this war if the Spanish Netherlands is broken off and turned into a mini-kingdom under a Bourbon ruler instead of Aragon/Catalonia.

 

[unprincipled peter]

It might make more sense, at least if this war if the Spanish Netherlands is broken off and turned into a mini-kingdom under a Bourbon ruler instead of Aragon/Catalonia.

Except that the only reason England/Dutch are staying out is that France isn't menacing Netherlands. Does the alliance do this as a punishment to E/DR for staying out? That's a good way to break relations between England/Dutch Republic and the rest of the alliance for the future. E/DR may jump into the war if they know Spanish Netherlands are at risk, but it may be too late in the game.

How does it make sense?

 

[Shiva]

Except that the only reason England/Dutch are staying out is that France isn't menacing Netherlands. Does the alliance do this as a punishment to E/DR for staying out? That's a good way to break relations between England/Dutch Republic and the rest of the alliance for the future. E/DR may jump into the war if they know Spanish Netherlands are at risk, but it may be too late in the game.

How does it make sense?

England and the Dutch are entering the war a bit late, and if France wants Spain for their Bourbon candidate they'll have to actually invade and put him on the Spanish throne, most of the fighting has been in Italy and Germany, and now the Spanish Netherlands.

Ultimately how everything ends will be decided not on the battlefield per se, but at the negotiating table.

There is going to be some sort of breakup of what remains of the Spanish Empire in Europe, the question is... Who gets what and what stage is being set for the next war.

 

[The Professor]

But enough. We can bicker back and forth for days and sidetrack the thread. You can believe what you will, and I'll do the same.

Indeed.
There's another thread for properly discussing "butterflies".
I apologise for upsetting you.

 

[VVD0D95]

Interesting though there was that attack on English regiments that’s still remains as well.

 

[VVD0D95]

Chapter 38: The Final Decision



November, 1692
​

William Cowper, Baron Cowper and Lord Chancellor of England sat in a chair beneath the gilded throne, he watched and listened as the lords of the realm walked back into the chamber after a brief recess for lunch. He saw Somerset, Godolphin and Powys all walk in together and knew that they had been to see the Princess. He frowned at that. He did not approve of such meddling, but understood it, given the fact that the Princess had been dragged into all of this because of Shrewsbury and Devonshire. William had learned a lot from the Princess during his short time in office, and he had to admit, were she not married to the Duke of Cumberland, he might have asked her to marry him. He cleared his head of such thoughts, and as the last lord walked in, he nodded to black rod to shut the doors.

The lords fell silent and so he spoke. “My lords, we are here now, in this final session of the day to reach a conclusion on a matter that has impacted all three Kingdoms. As the peers accused are English they are facing trial in England and in this most august house. The crimes are of high treason, of forging a letter in the name of a member of the King’s family, alongside plotting to depose a King with the connivance of a foreign power. The accused are Charles Talbot Earl of Shrewsbury, William Cavendish Earl of Devonshire, Henry Sidney Baron Sidney and John Somers. The latter has faced his trial in the Commons and been found innocent. As of this morning, Henry Sidney had met the Princess in Whitehall and pleaded guilty to his crimes and surrendered himself to the guards.” There was a wave of whispering at that, William had been informed of this by Black Rod during the recess, he could suspect that was why the Duke of Cumberland was in such a good mood. “We now shall move toward the deciding judgement.”

William raised a hand and black rod walked forward, with the rod on their shoulder they said. “Charles Talbot, Earl of Shrewsbury is accused of high treason of plotting to remove the King and in forging a letter to pin the blame on Her Highness the Duchess of Cumberland.”

“How does the house find this man?” William asked.

The Duke of Cumberland as the only legitimate royal peer in the House stood up first and said. “I find him guilty, upon my honour, my lord.” silence followed his statement.

The Duke of Norfolk the senior most non-royal peer in the House stood up then and said. “I find him guilty, upon my honour, my lord.” he said down.

Next came the Duke of Berwick who as the King’s oldest half-brother, though illegitimate had been given a place of honour in the Lords. “I find him guilty, upon my honour, my lord.” on it went, Duke and Earl and Marquesses all found Shrewsbury guilty, the man who was sat in a bench down the way from him gradually shrank in size and stature until they got to the Earl of Danby who looked frail.

“I find him not guilty, upon my honour, my lord.” the man said, there was some whispering at that, but the proceedings continued, the tide changed slightly, the odd not guilty with the more common refrain of guilty.

Eventually the last lord had spoken and delivered their verdict. William cleared his throat and looked at his counters, they handed him their paper. He read it and then announced. “In the matter of high treason, the Earl of Shrewsbury has been found guilty by 350 votes to 70. He shall be dealt with in the matter found fitting under the Treason Act of 1351, that act being hanging.” William banged his fist onto the arm of his chair.

Shrewsbury was led away, his eyes downcast, his body shaken. Once he was gone, Devonshire was brought in. Now this was a man who was dangerous, William could tell. He looked arrogant, but at the same time placid. What schemes he was plotting within himself who knew. William cleared his throat as Devonshire was placed on the chair where his colleague Shrewsbury had once sat.

“In the case of William Cavendish, Earl of Devonshire the man is accused of plotting to remove the King and to place blame on the matter into the hands of the Princess. How does the house find this man?” Black Rod asked.

The Duke of Cumberland rose then, and this time there was complete malice in his face. “I find him guilty, upon my honour, my lord.”

The Duke of Norfolk rose then. “I find him guilty, upon my honour my lord.”

The Duke of Berwick rose next. “I find him guilty, upon my honour, my lord.” and so it went more and more the votes went against Devonshire. But then something unusual happened.

The Earl of Pembroke stood up and said. “I find him not guilty, upon my honour, my lord.” and the tide changed, more and more the verdict of not guilty returned, and William could see Devonshire getting more and more smug as each verdict came back, eventually when the last man had said his piece, William looked to his counters who handed him their papers.

William unfurled it, looked at it, looked at it again and then said. “In the judgement of William Cavendish Earl of Devonshire, the house has found by 220 votes to 200 votes in favour of the not guilty verdict.” William looked at Devonshire and said. “You are a free man.”

The house erupted into a shouting match, but William noticed how through it all Cavendish remained upright, an apparent smirk on his face. It would be an image William knew he would remember for as long as he lived.

 

[VVD0D95]

Chapter 39: Marie Louise



March, 1693​

The differences between Spain and Versailles were clear to her now, more so than ever. Spain was dark and grey, under the oppression of a matriarch who did little but bark orders and give little in return, trying in some way to maintain an age that had long since passed. Her husband in Spain had been beyond any sort of means to do anything to help her. Yes, he had loved her, and in her own way she had loved him, but there was nothing physical for them, for he could not be physical. In Versailles and Medoun there was merriment and joy, as well as love for her. Her husband now, the Dauphin of France the second most powerful man in all of Christendom, loved her and she him. their childhood romance rekindled after a year and a half of marriage, with a child newly born, a girl who they had named Maria Theresa after his mother. They made love almost daily, and Marie Louise had come to regard his children by his first wife as her own, and so it went.

She put down the letter from her father and said. “The King is going to seek peace with the Spanish and the Austrians.” She knew her former mother by marriage would rally against it, not trusting anything that her now father by marriage and uncle said or did. But she also suspected that the new Queen, freshly arrived in Spain would want peace.

“I know.” Her husband said. “The King mentioned it to me when I was there last.” There being Versailles and the council, she did not quite understand why her husband did not attend the meetings. She heard the words that the courtiers thought him foolish and stupid. But he was smart, just not with books or in the way his father was.

“Do you agree with the supposed peace terms?” Marie Louise asked.

“Bar and Lorraine, and some island in the new world?” Louis replied. “It is not negative.”

“But it is unlikely to get any support from those who did not fight the war.” Marie Louise said, she was of course referencing her cousin the King of England and his regency council, as well as her other cousin the Prince of Orange and his Dutch Republic.

“They cannot complain.” Louis replied. “We provided them with a chance to get involved, they did not take it. This is between us and Spain now.”

“And Austria.” Marie reminded her husband.

Louis did the same thing his father did, he shrugged and waved a hand dismissively. “Austria is dead in this war now. They cannot keep going. They will accept what is handed to them.”

“And you think the Spanish who fought two wars over this land that the King now wants, will accept it?” Marie Louise asked. “I know how they think, they won’t. they would rather keep fighting than accept it.”

“Well it’s not as if we can demand Naples and Sicily, is it? We didn’t do well in that front at all, indeed that’s half the reason the King is now pressing for this treaty requirement.” Louis replied.

“So, instead of pushing for something you know for sure the new Queen of Spain is sure to give up, you want her to give up Bar and other areas of the Spanish Netherlands that a war was fought over a decade ago?” Marie Louise asked. “I think you are missing the essence of the thing here.”

Louis raised an eyebrow at her. “And what might that be?”

“Italy is a noose around the Spanish throne’s neck. They need to constantly get involved there. It made sense when there was a Habsburg ruling Spain, but now the woman who sits the throne will give it over to a Bavarian when she dies. There is nothing stopping her agreeing to that change. Naples and Sicily, and a crown for Philippe. Think about it.” Marie Louise said.

Her husband didn’t say anything immediately, he sat in a long silence, and then eventually said. “I shall see what I can convince my father of.”

Marie Louise kissed his cheek then before adding. “There’s another thing I wanted to raise with you.”

“Is this to do with your brother’s marriage?” Her husband asked sounding tired.

“Yes.” Marie Louise replied. “I will not allow my brother to marry an illegitimate girl, even if she is your half-sister, I am sorry, but that is not acceptable.”

“My father is determined to see her married somewhere.” Louis said.

“Well he has delayed for this long, I am sure he can wait for a little longer.” Marie said.

“Who would you suggest he marry then?” her husband asked.

“The Queen of Spain’s sister by marriage.” Marie Louise said.

“You cannot be serious.” Her husband exclaimed.

“I am. It would be the perfect way to soothe things over, and ensure that the King of Poland remains firmly within our camp.” Marie Louise replied.

Louis sighed. “Fine, I shall bring this up with the King when we visit Versailles next month.”

Again she kissed her husband’s cheek and said. “Thank you.”

 

[VVD0D95]

Chapter 40: Treaty



May, 1693
​

Leopold took a moment to compose himself, he’d just been told by his wife that their son Joseph had been found in bed with a woman some six years older than her, and that this woman was the sister by marriage of his new finance minister. He had to applaud the gall of the boy, but also curse him. This would require strict action to prevent further scandal. He cleared his throat and then spoke.

“This war that has been raging across the Empire for the past few years has been one of a mixed sort for us. Whilst we have triumphed in Italy, we have done badly on the Rhine and let us not even speak of Spain. We failed to bring the English and the Dutch into the war, and thus now we find ourselves looking at needing to negotiate a peace.” He looked at the aforementioned finance minister Karl von Auersperg, son of the late Ferdinand and asked. “Do we have much financial resources left to pursue further military action.”

Unlike Ferdinand who would have found a way to conjure the funds out of thin air, Karl simply shook his head. “We do not, Sire. The last of the loan we received from the English is due to expire soon. We need the money we have raised to pay off the English and to ensure our soldiers are paid as well. With what is happening in France and along the Rhine and in Spain, continuing the war would be disastrous for us.”

Leopold noticed that the man didn’t call the plague by its name, but he acknowledged it all the same. “Very well, this was inevitable. We have at least triumphed over the Ottomans for now.” Belgrade was secure which was a relief, and the Ottomans it seemed were busy killing one another as was their wont. He turned then to Albert Hohenlohe, the newly appointed foreign minister. “What news from the French then?”

Like his ancestor Hohenlohe was a bear of a man, with a thick moustache and beard, and a bit of a belly. He was fierce in battle and even more fierce at court in getting what the Emperor wanted, Leopold acknowledged that and knew the man had ensured the English had provided the loans for the duration of the war through his gilded tongue. “The French are offering revised terms, Sire.” A pause and then. “In return for recognising Her Majesty Maria Antonia as Queen of Spain, they wish to have Your Imperial Majesty recognise their permanent possession over Lorraine and Bar. They have also asked that Her Majesty the Queen of Spain grant them the island of Saint Dominque, and they wish for the border with the Empire to be recognised as that which they have conquered during this war, alongside recognition of their possession of some towns in the Spanish Netherlands.”

Leopold sighed. He knew that his sister and his daughter could never realistically agree to those concessions in the Spanish Netherlands, especially as it would leave them humiliated long term with the English and the Dutch. “And what counter proposals have the Spanish given?”

“They have offered Naples and Sicily to the French specifically to the Dauphin with the suggestion that they be deigned to the Dauphin’s son Philipp upon the boy’s majority making him King of the region.” Albert said.

Leopold shook his head. “That is absolutely unacceptable. Such a thing would place the Bourbons right on our doorstep in Italy, and would make some of the Duchies nothing more than French puppets. We cannot accept that proposal.”

Albert nodded. “Agreed, Your Imperial Majesty. That is why I have come up with a counter proposal to present to the French. One which will also make the English happy.”

Leopold was intrigued and impressed, though he had long suspected that Albert would be able to do something like this. “Go on.” He commanded.

“I propose that we accept the demand for Philippsburg, Lorraine and Breisach to remain with France and forming part of the border with the Empire. However, we demand the return of Freiburg and demand that King Louis not place a candidate for the Archbishopric of Cologne when the seat next becomes available. Furthermore, we invite the English and the Dutch to place garrisons in the towns of Ypres and Namur. We also get the Elector Palatine to agree to not having a further Protestant Elector of the Palatine.” Albert said.

Leopold thought on this, it would give the French more power, but at the same time knowing Louis there likely would be another war in the future, a war in which they could reclaim those territories lost in this one. “And how would we get the Spanish to accept?”

“The presence of allied garrisons within Ypres and Namur would be insurance, to ensure the French did not try and overextend their reach. It also ensures the English and the Dutch have an interest in maintaining Spanish dominance there.” Albert said.

Leopold thought for a moment, it was not the perfect plan, but it was the only one he felt comfortable with. Therefore, with great reluctance he said. “Very well, we shall have this plan proposed.” He only hoped his daughter would see sense and agree to it as well.

 

[Derek Pullem]

Whats in it for the Dutch and British - they will need some concessions from the Spanish. It's extremely politically incorrect but the question of the Asiento will come up.