If it comes... Bourgogne, his wife and their elder son can survive or OTL Louis XV can die with them (pretty easy to do, considering who his governess risked a lot for saving his life and butterflies can make her less aware of the danger or less quick or uninterested in acting)
Personally I would like either Bourgogne or Anjou on the French throne instead of OTL Louis XV and his regency
That is what happens when a regency does its best to keep the king unprepared and screws over the realm while doing so. Not Louis's fault. He was not raised to be comptent. Things would have been very different, if he were.
Because Bourgogne and Adelaide were at least interesting persons while I highly dislike Louis XV....
Well being King of France after Louis XIV was almost impossible also without the rest...
Either Bourgogne or Anjou do not require a regency (and a post regency who was worse than the actual regency as at least Orleans more-or-less knew what he was doing, while Bourbon likely was competent as Louis XV himself) and as they had know personally their grandfather and his kind of rulership have greater chances to not being suffocated by Versailles and establish a real personal rule in their own style.
And that is not enough for made him likable in my eyes (and as many of you know I love screwing France as much is realistically possible so)...
So far we're discussing two variants:
- Mass die out of Bourbons still happens, Duc de Bourgogne's family dies as OTL - but young Louis XV dies as well of something random such as suffocating. Philippe d'Anjou becomes King of France (if he's already a ruler of Naples or something by then, abdicating there in favor of either Duc de Berry (who would be marrying not as OTL, as Chartres gets different marriage and so OTL Duchesse de Berry is non-existent) or young Duc de Normandie);
- Duc de Bourgogne dies even earlier than OTL - contacting smallpox from his father, but his wife, Adelaide, and their two sons survive. OTL Duc de Britanny becomes the new Louis XV under regency of his mother/uncles. See "Anne of Austria and her two sons, ver. 2.0"
unprincipled peter
Donor
With this sort of POD, it is highly likely the OTL line of Bourbon deaths are going to be butterflied, especially le Grande Dauphin (what the odds that his carriage will be in the exact same spot, at the exact same time, where he caught small pox? Ditto where the measles were contracted a year later by his son's family). For that matter, people born after the POD are likely to change, unless sex is predestined to occur at identical times. Heck, le Petit Dauphin isn't married yet.
For ease of envisioning scenarios, you can keep such events the same, or change the details and they all die (or are born) anyway, but realistically these are going to be dramatically different.
For ease of envisioning scenarios, you can keep such events the same, or change the details and they all die (or are born) anyway, but realistically these are going to be dramatically different.
VVD0D95
Banned
This is very true, though for example Le Petit Dauphin is betrothed to Marie Adelaide of Savoy here as part of Louis' move to get Savoy on his side. But whether that lasts or not remains to be seen.
Changes for change sake is boring and unproductive narratively. Better to focus on probability spaces identifiably close to ours.
unprincipled peter
Donor
like I said, if you want to keep things similar to OTL so that the reader can follow the narrative, that's fine.
But recognizing obvious butterflies is not change for change sake. IMO, it's shoddy not to factor them in.
This is where the definition of butterflies and probability space comes in. Chaos theory which introduced the butterfly effect was an explanation that minute differences between actual and mathematically usable conditions eventually render mathematical results incorrect. That is, it closes the prediction window.
It said nothing about changes having to occur and said changes having to be different.
That's why I called it change for change sake.
Possible butterflies, not obligatory...
Butterflying things just for the sake of butterflying is not a good way to go... There are a lot of consideration who need to be made before doing radical changes... For me the deaths of the heirs of Louis XIV in the last years of his reign were more or less a (well deserved) divine punishment for his actions and the survival of Louis XV something like a miracle necessary for preventing a civil war in France and Spain...
Absolutely.
Your are talking about possible butterflies like they were some kind of direct consequences...
The bad thing is ignoring direct consequences of your POD:
As example: using the survival of the younger brother of Charles VIII of France as POD and asking what will happen to Anne of Brittany and her lands after Charles VIII’s death as the new King will be a,ready married is ignoring the consequences of the POD as in this universe the treaties of peace of the Mad War instead of requiring the approbation of the King of France for any wedding arrangement of Anne of Brittany and her sister Isabeau, will include a bethrotal between Anne and Charles VIII’s younger brother with the clause who Isabeau will replace Anne if she died before the wedding...
Derek Pullem
Donor
A butterfly flapping its wings might cause a tornado on the other side of the world. More likely it will just result in the butterfly flapping its wings.
Chaos theory is very misunderstood. It says that the result is unknowable not necessarily unrecognisable.