So is it at all possible for the most isolated inhabited place in the world to become an American possession? The first permanent settler on the island landed in 1810 and was a man named Jonathan Lambert from Massachusetts. He called the place the Islands of Refreshment basically a micro nation. It served ships needing to make repairs or take on supplies. Shortly thereafter the United State Navy used the islands as a cruiser base during the War of 1812. After the war ends the British Navy takes possession of the Island in 1816, reportedly this is to bar Napoleonic allies from using it as a place to stage an escape for Napoleon during his imprisonment.

What needs to happen for the United State to keep hold of the tiny island? A larger community of whalers and farmers in the first few years of settlement? Perhaps a more positive outcome for the War Of 1812 where the Americans can demand the Tristan Da Cunha be recognized? Or maybe a more chaotic end of that war where the US feels it needs a permanent naval base in the area? Possibly just Napoleon dies at Waterloo and the Brits don't take an interest in the place.

Would love to hear other opinions and thoughts on this. What are the ramifications later on? Is it possible there's a totally different outcome? A French Tristan Da Cunha or a South African Tristan Da Cunha?
 
If Britain isn't too concerned about Napoleon and the United States gets pushy about it at the Treaty of Ghent, Britain could always just sign it over to the United States.

The other opportunity would be another United States - Britain war, although until the end of the 19th century the US is almost certain to lose the naval war no matter what allies the US can find. If the US plus allies wins, then they can push for the island to be American (maybe based on Lambert's claim).

Otherwise, perhaps the US could purchase the island from the British in the aftermath of a major war and major British debt? Problem is I can't see that treaty being too well-received given that Congress would be spending a sizable sum on a speck of land in the middle of nowhere with little natural resources aside from rock lobster. Maybe a group of concerned citizens (perhaps some pro-colonialist lobby who base their argument for Tristan being American on Lambert's claim) could raise the funds for Congress?
 
I like the first. I'd also like to see a community of Massachusetts based sailors that move there be represented by Paul Cuffee who represented the significant Pequot-Black and Indigenous-Black mixed communities of Sailors.

Maybe in the failure for a Continental African colonization some sailors and families decided the island could work for them. It wouldn't be too different, all female descendants were black and mixed race freed women from St Helena.

In the grand scheme of things it wouldn't really do much other than propel American take over of South Atlantic islands and maybe have a tighter grip in Southern Atlantic trading.
 
The US needs to properly stake a claim first. In OTL, an American attempt to settle the islands was a private venture of one guy and two of his friends. It ended in ruin.

I think the first major step for a divergence would be to put more government interest behind this effort. However, unlike the British, the Americans at the time don't have many ideas about overseas expansionism or overseas shipping bases. What might seem like a worthwhile venture later in the 19th century would seem like a fanciful undertaking in the early 19th century. The US still had much of the North American continent to expand into, especially at this early a date. Why would the US government prioritise funding a small colony on Tristan da Cunha ? They wouldn't. The US' whole geopolitical outlook would have to change.
 
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