I'm not sure how plausible this is, but I felt like writing up the 'WI Kennedy lives, the US never goes to war in Vietnam and a Korea-style stalemate and permanent division occurs?' idea I've been thinking of for a while.
South Vietnam, officially the Republic of Vietnam (Vietnamese:
Việt Nam Cộng Hòa; French:
République du Viêt Nam) is a country in south-east Asia, sharing a land border with Cambodia, Laos and North Vietnam and bordering the South China Sea to its south. Unlike its northern neighbour, which is a one-party socialist state, South Vietnam is a capitalist constitutional republic with a unitary, presidential system.
Originally formed from southern French Indochina, predominantly the province of Cochinchina (Nam Kỳ) and the protectorate of Annam (Trung Kỳ), the original South Vietnamese government was formed in opposition to Ho Chi Minh's government in the north under Emperor Bảo Đại; this lasted for six years until Ngô Đình Diệm, Bảo Đại's Prime Minister, deposed him and declared himself President after a largely fraudulent referendum in 1955. Diệm ruled until he was killed in a military coup in 1963, by which time North and South Vietnam were at war.
During the military junta's period of control from 1963 to 1967, US President John F. Kennedy advocated for democratization to unify the South Vietnamese and worked with the UN to create a two-state solution for Vietnam similar to that of Korea, both to try to avoid the fall of the capitalist South against the communist North and to ensure the US did not have to deploy its own forces. Over the course of 1967, the UN's forces provided aid to South Vietnam in order to ensure its government retained control until a peace agreement could be made; in August 1967, the junta agreed to hand over control to a democratically elected President, and a demilitarized zone was set up along the 17th parallel with a heavy UN forces presence to prevent aggression from either side. Despite this, animosity within Vietnam was intense and diplomatic ties remained poor between the north and south.
Due to international forces, particularly the USA, Australia and France, investing heavily in South Vietnam's economy, ex-military President Nguyễn Văn Thiệu was able to become a powerfully entrenched leader, with most international observers noting that his electoral victories were generally not won through free and fair contests; the regime's human rights record remained heavily criticized for many years, though the lack of ability or incentive for its citizens to flee the country for the North means both halves of Vietnam have grown to have fairly similar populations.
In November 1986, in what has been referred to as the 'Bi-Vietnamese Reforms' in the West and the 'Đổi Mới' ('Opening Up') within both halves of Vietnam, the two countries' new and more liberal leaders announced reforms to improve their poor international relations; the North Vietnamese government of Nguyễn Văn Linh introduced dramatic economic reforms to create a market socialist economy more open to international trade with the West, the South Vietnamese government of Dương Văn Minh announced large-scale constitutional reforms to extend the franchise and crack down on voter fraud to make South Vietnam's elections freer and fairer, and the two countries multilaterally agreed to renounce their claims to each other's territory. At a press conference in Huế in December 1986, Linh and Minh shook hands, though both clarified that North and South Vietnam were to remain separate.
Since the reforms, South Vietnam has been seen as having moved towards a more democratic system with several peaceful changes in power from the Social Democratic Alliance (SDA, the party Thiệu and Minh had belonged to) to the Nationalists (VNQDD, which first took control of the South Vietnamese House of Representatives in the first democratic election under under Nguyễn Đan Quế, who became President when Minh retired in 1991) and vice versa. Additionally, in the subsequent decades international trade with South Vietnam and tourism, particularly to its capital Saigon, have increased considerably, helping keep South Vietnam's economy competitive with the North despite the latter's liberalizing reforms. North Vietnam remains a communist one-party state, though its government is noted for less aggressive suppression of freedom of speech than other communist governments such as China or North Korea.
By contrast, South Vietnam's government has been criticized for fairly aggressive freedom of speech violations, particularly in the repression of communists or figures perceived as communist or pro-reunification trying to run for public office in South Vietnam. While current President Phêrô Nguyễn Văn Hùng has tried to soften these restrictions due to 'red scare' allegations in the international press, he has clashed with Prime Minister Van Tran, a hardline anti-communist, on numerous occasions.
Other diplomatic issues have emerged over the South Vietnamese government's opposition to the distribution of North Vietnamese media, and particularly have given the impression of the South having a more hardline anti-LGBTQ government than the North. Among these conflicts are the South Vietnamese government banning broadcasters from distributing TV programmes such as the adaptation of crime journalist Bui Anh Tan's novel
A World Without Women in 2007 (and the novel itself in 2000), Dang Khoa's sitcom
My Best Gay Friends (2013), and most widely reported in the international press, the Cartoon Network series
Steven Universe in 2015; this last controversy was complicated by South Vietnamese censors claiming the ban was because of Steven's T-shirt resembling the North Vietnamese flag (display of which is still banned in the South, just as display of the Southern flag is banned in the North). By contrast, all three of those programmes were not censored in North Vietnam.
In addition to this, Hùng and Tran have been heavily criticized both within and outside of South Vietnam for poorly handling the country's response to the Covid-19 pandemic during 2020. While North Vietnam, despite its land border with China where the virus first emerged, has kept cases relatively limited, complicating factors such as poorer healthcare coverage and implementation of preventative measures such as mask-wearing mean the virus has had a severe impact on South Vietnam. This, combined with perceptions of authoritarianism, has led to mass protests of Hùng and Tran's leadership, with allegations of police brutality against protestors further contributing to the government's unpopularity. For their part, supporters of the government have accused protestors of agitating in support of reunification under a communist autocracy, though North Vietnamese President Nguyễn Tấn Dũng has asserted the North's government 'has no intention of overruling the South's sovereignty'.