1916 and 1920
1932
1936 election and civil/voting rights act
“
I’ll be Mussolini and Hitler rolled into one. Mussolini gave them castor oil; I’ll give them poison,
and then they’ll fucking taste what happens when you go against the Kingfish! They go after me like this, after all I've done for those goddamn [
expletive deleted], who the fuck do they think they are?”
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President Huey Long, after civil rights activists publicly protested his administration
"After the 1936 election, Leonidas Dyer and his Fair Deal coalition of Republicans, Longist Democrats, and some other third party politicians held massive majorities in Congress. These majorities, along with Huey Long's carrots and sticks, were able to pass a landmark bill to enforce civil rights and voting rights for nonwhite Americans, as well as to pass significant expansions of the Fair Deal. With these successes, the Republicans and their Fair Deal alliance looked poised to dominate the political scene, at least for the short to medium term future, as the Mainline Democratic Party continued to flounder in unpopularity and ineptness
But soon after the 1936 election, many in the Republican Party began to fear for the future. It was, after all, unlikely that the President would run for a third term - doing so would go against a long tradition. But who would come after him? Fiorello La Guardia was seen as a favorite among the party establishment, but there was concern that Huey Long would manage to attain the nomination instead, with his more current association with the Dyer administration and his more populist rhetoric. This caused significant concern - Long had shown himself to have a demagogic streak, as well as a willingness to get his hands dirty, and hints of a desire for power that could go beyond mere ambition and into something worse. Even as the party establishment was grateful for Long's assistance with passing the civil and voting rights law and progressive Fair Deal legislation, many among the establishment quietly began to organize in hopes of preventing a 1940 Long nomination and Presidency
One of the hopes for the Republican establishment was that President Dyer would simply run for a third term. After all, while he'd taken some backlash in the south since his landslide 1936 victory, he overall held sky high approval, and the escalating international situation certainly might make it easier to justify spurning the two-terms-only tradition. But it was not to be. In late 1937, Dyer was found dead in his bed. With Dyer's death, Long ascended to the Presidency, and suddenly was the heavy favorite for the 1940 election
Though the Republican establishment attempted to keep relations positive with President Long, the President had no illusions as to their true feelings for him. In the lead-up to the 1938 midterms, he and his political machine made a concerted effort to push for the nomination of staunchly pro-Long politicians, as well as to use carrots and sticks (including J. Edgar Hoover's FBI, as well as a growing alliance with big business elements that gave the progressive Republican establishment even more concern) to try and push existing Congresspeople to align with Long. With a platform of very populist economic policy, combined with staunchly traditionalist moral values, Long and his allies swept the midterms, easily taking control of the house, and making major gains in the Senate as well
Immediately after the midterm elections, Long began to demand a dramatic reduction in the power of Congress, arguing that the national crisis necessitated a stronger executive. Pundits expressed major doubt at the ability for Long's legislation to pass (the House was one thing, but only a third of the Senate is up for election in any given year, so even though Long's men swept the 1938 midterms, they appeared to have rather less than a majority in the Senate), as well as in regards to the potential constitutionality of the bill. But then the bill passed the House, and in the Senate, the Mainline Democratic remnant along with some bribed or blackmailed Republicans voted with Long's faction, first to abolish the filibuster, and then to pass Long's legislation with a bare majority. When the Supreme Court unanimously struck the bill down, Long's faction in Congress simply created 10 more Supreme Court seats, and passed the bill again, with it surviving the SCOTUS on a 10-9 vote
Long had argued that the reforms were a necessary measure and one that would also be temporary, and that his administration would continue to respect the freedoms of Americans even with the increased power the reforms gave the administration. But the Long administration would quickly descend into authoritarianism, with the creation of pro-Long militias and the jailing of critics of the regime. Furthermore, while Long had previously publicly demanded a large package of populist economic aid, by this time Long had largely pressed the brakes on further assistance, and began turning in a rather more pro-business direction, in part as a reward to the folks who had aided his attempts to pressure members of Congress to fall in line behind his policies
With this new turn, the economy began to take a turn for the worse. More protests emerged, even some from blocs that had previously been loyal to Long, and these protests intensified when documents leaked to the public suggesting that former president Dyer didn't die of natural causes as was previously believed, with Long's associates apparently having killed him instead. The Long regime responded by further cracking down on dissidents, alleging that the Canadian and Mexican governments had fabricated the documents in order to weaken the USA, while also blaming the economic downturn in part on treachery by "liberated" women and minorities, and lashing out against those demographics. The economy continued to decline, but with parts of the population being whipped into a frenzy by the fanatically traditionalist rhetoric and organizations of the Long regime, and with the short term economic benefits from the pillaging after the invasion of Mexico and Canada, the Long regime retained enough support to remain in power, albeit with ever more reliance on the support from big business, which found itself with increasing concessions in its favor
At the end of the 1930s, war broke out in Europe and Asia, with Fascists in Italy, Spain, Portugal, Austria, Germany, Japan, and elsewhere expanding against their democratic and communist neighbors. It was unclear how the war would end up, but it appeared the Fascists had an upper hand, with the potential for an ascendant Fascist new world order - though the Fascists, confident in their victory, began to cast uneasy looks at each other, with some concern for the potential for future conflicts to emerge amongst each other..."
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Part of a summary of Sinclair Lewis' book "It Can't Happen Here"
"What do you get when you cross a radical communist with a libertarian who abandons the idea of society and treats it like trash? Well, my fellow Americans, if my opposition's current polling is to believed, we'll have no problem giving you what you deserve!"
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the future President, on the campaign trail in 1960
Soon after the 1936 election, many in the Republican Party began to fear for the future. It was, after all, unlikely that the President would run for a third term - doing so would go against a long tradition. But who would come after him? Fiorello La Guardia was seen as a favorite among the party establishment, but there was concern that Huey Long would manage to attain the nomination instead, with his more current association with the Dyer administration and his more populist rhetoric. This caused significant concern - Long had shown himself to have a demagogic streak, as well as a willingness to get his hands dirty, and hints of a desire for power that could go beyond mere ambition and into something worse. Even as the party establishment was grateful for Long's assistance with passing the civil and voting rights law and progressive Fair Deal legislation, many among the establishment quietly began to organize in hopes of preventing a 1940 Long nomination and Presidency
One of the hopes for the Republican establishment was that President Dyer would simply run for a third term. After all, while he'd taken some backlash in the south since his landslide 1936 victory, he overall held sky high approval, and the escalating international situation certainly might make it easier to justify spurning the two-terms-only tradition. Dyer was initially quite reluctant with the idea, but was eventually convinced. He'd keep his decision private until 1940, he told his political allies, but he gave them his guarantees that he'd run again, so long as he was able. Still, though, many in the Republican leadership remained concerned. After all, Dyer was getting up in years and would be 69 in 1940 - not extremely old, but with the additional matter of his disability due to his 1920s shooting, there were concerns as to whether he'd even live to 1940. And if he died before the election, Long would become President...
Meanwhile, Vice President Huey Long found himself increasingly bored and uneasy. He'd had a major role in campaigning in 1936, as well as with wrangling with Congress in order to pass the 1937 voting and civil rights act, but after that, the additional legislation the Dyer administration pursued didn't really require anything from Long, since the Congressional majorities were so large and the economic reforms didn't have the sort of controversy the voting and civil rights act did. Long had ambitions, he'd had a desire to seek the Presidency itself in 1940. Long also had some years before 1940, in a position that he increasingly found didn't really involve doing that much at all. Long also increasingly found alcohol as a manner to deal with his boredom, and one day an aide found Long dead in bed, having choked to death on his own vomit after a night of very heavy drinking
Thus also died the fears of a Huey Long Presidency. For a time after the 1936 elections, fears of a Huey Long Presidency had even entered the public discourse and pop culture, with writings like Sinclair Lewis's "It Can't Happen Here" (which presented a scenario where Huey Long went on to assassinate Leonidas Dyer, ascend to the Presidency, and institute a fascistic authoritarian dictatorship)being published and getting some readership. But with Long's death, those fears dissipated, and now that pop culture phenomenon is largely seen as quaint, (though the concept has more recently been used as the concept for a dystopian young adult series on Netflix)
Even with Long's death, in 1940 Dyer still decided to run again (this time with La Guardia back on the ticket). The nation was quite open to this. The mainline Democrats were not able to present a strong opposition, and despite making some gains in the south compared to their dismal 1936 performance, still were handily beaten by Dyer and La Guardia. Concerns about Dyer's health would continue for the rest of his Presidency, but again, and again, and again, and again, Dyer proved the fears wrong. Dyer's Fair Deal alliance maintained a huge degree of popularity due to the successes in economic recovery and then the successes in fighting global fascism in the Second World War, and by the latter 1940s the mainline Democratic Party was largely irrelevant, having lost most support outside of the demographic of southern white people (and even among southern whites, a sizable and growing chunk now leaned towards the Republicans and their coalition, due to the successes in economic recovery and successes at Fair Dealers building up coalitions between black people and poorer white people), allowing Dyer to easily continue to hold the Presidency and for his allies in Congress to maintain majorities too
Dyer was able to carry out the duties of the office of the Presidency even into the 50s (at which point he was in his 80s), but increasingly found himself tired and considering retirement. Shortly after the 1956 elections, Dyer announced he would not run for reelection in 1960. This meant that for the first time in over two decades, there was actually some doubt as to who would win the next election
In the lead-up to the 1960 election, two frontrunners for the Republican and Fair Deal Coalition nomination emerged - former Secretary of State Margaret Chase Smith, and Vice President Edward Brooke, both of whom would be historic choices. Smith focused her campaign a bit more on themes of experience (she'd been in politics for about a decade longer than Brooke, and had more experience when it came to executive-level government), and on foreign policy (advocating for continuing the progressive and anti-colonial foreign policy of Dyer, expanding ties and aid to the Republics of India and Indochina as well as placing more focus on Africa as an opportunity for the American bloc to shift aside the Western European bloc before the Soviet bloc managed to gain a foothold in the area). Brooke, on the other hand, focused more on themes of domestic change and youth interests (he'd be the youngest President, having only been picked for VP in the 1956 cycle after Dyer's previous VP died of old age shortly before the election), with a platform that went further than Smith's domestically in regards to investments in fighting urban poverty and improving k-12 education, as well as greater support for college and expanding the national healthcare program to cover vision, dental, and hearing. But ultimately the two frontrunners' platforms weren't immensely different in terms of policy, with the big differences being more along the lines of aesthetics and rhetoric of the campaign
The nomination battle was a very close and hotly contested one, with Brooke and Smith generally polling within a point or two of each other for most of the campaign. Brooke managed to very narrowly pull through with a victory, and in order to mend fences inside the coalition, simply chose Smith (who reluctantly agreed) as his VP pick
Edward Brooke was thus almost certainly assured to win the general election, but it turns out he wasn't actually the only person running for the Presidency
For the previous few cycles, the mainline Democratic Party had largely ceased to exist, and its more moderate elements had simply been folded into the newer United Opposition party, which also had a sizable faction of moderate to conservative former Republicans and some other middle of the road politicians. The United Opposition sought to avoid the problems the mainline Democrats ran into, instead running on a platform that was generally for most of the Fair Deal agenda that had already been enacted, and merely called for some minor cuts, as well as being more cautious regarding expansions, as well as making allegations of corruption that the United Opposition leaders said they could root out. The United Opposition was generally expected to further increase its vote share in 1960, due to fatigue with the length of time that the Fair Deal Coalition had held power, as well as some hit to the Coalition due to Dyer's stepping down, and potential issues and hurt feelings from the Coalition nomination struggle. The United Opposition even held some hope that they could drive the Coalition below 60% of the vote for the first time since the creation of the United Opposition
But by this time, the opposition had also begun to fall into infighting and conflict with itself. The United Opposition leadership had taken a very cautious and steady approach, something that some had criticized, given that the party had somewhat underperformed expectations in the past couple election cycles. The leadership had gotten criticism for publicly barring political figures who didn't fit within the narrow moderate spectrum it targeted for the sake of electability. Some had begun to argue that an opposition that accepted more internal mass democracy, along the lines of the Republican and Fair Deal Coalition nominations or even going further, would allow for the opposition to appeal to a larger ideological spectrum and expand support by getting more people involved in the process, as compared to the current strategy of picking nominees and formulating platforms in smoky backrooms by party elites
So the United Opposition experienced a split, and the Coalition for Opposition Unity emerged. Initially, some hoped that even if the opposition vote split, the new opposition coalition could at least peel away more people from the Fair Dealers and bring more nonvoters to the fold, potentially still allowing for some sort of minor morale victory at the very least. And the democratic measures the Coalition for Opposition Unity enacted did certainly bring a lot of people out to take part in. But the coalition was very ideologically fragmented, with a larger than expected amount of ideological radicals than initially expected while no particular ideology held the balance. At the Coalition for Opposition Unity convention, the delegates ended with dozens of votes with no majority, before finally choosing libertarian John Hospers for President and trotskyist James P. Cannon for Vice President. The ticket was widely derided as an incoherent mix of ideology, Cannon eventually stepped down from the ticket - being replaced by progressive labor activist Walter Reuther (who openly only took the spot for the increased public profile it allowed him, openly criticizing the top of the ticket). Before the convention, polls suggested the Coalition for Opposition Unity could overtake the United Opposition, but with the chaos of the nomination, it went on the decline, with the United Opposition retaking the lead among the opposition, albeit with the Coalition for Opposition Unity retaining a decent chunk of support nonetheless due to its broader base. But either way, Brooke and Smith had little fear that they'd not only win but win yet another overwhelming victory for the Fair Dealers - near everyone suspected that the opposition would eventually get its shit together and that Fair Dealer dominance wouldn't last forever, but that "eventually" didn't come in 1960
The results, as predicted, were a landslide for the Fair Dealers. And while the two main opposition parties had combined done better in the popular vote than the United Opposition alone had done in 1956, their splitting of the opposition vote led to something of a humiliation - they'd both failed to even take second place in the electoral college, with the Klansman from the (peculiarly named) Moderate Party managing to win more electoral votes than either of them despite
still only winning a single state and winning less than one sixth of their combined popular vote totals. But their
combined electoral vote total had beaten the Moderates, by three votes, at least?
Still, the Brooke-Smith ticket had gotten a smaller vote percentage than Dyer had in the past couple elections, and as they took office, they began to negotiate with Congress with a certain urgency that Dyer had lacked in his final years, with intent to make for themselves as much of a legacy for themselves as they could with the opportunities given, before the opposition managed to actually win an election, which was bound to happen eventually, probably
Leonidas Dyer would go on to die in 1977 at the old age of 106, having left a massive legacy of progress on American politics and society. By the time of his death, America as a whole had transitioned back to something of a genuine two party system (or two-coalition system, at least), but the Republican Party and its Fair Deal allies remained a powerful force, with the Party of Lincoln, Roosevelt, and Dyer still having something of an edge