Alternate Electoral Maps III

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The 2002 French presidential election was a hard-fought contest, widely expected to be a rematch between incumbent Republican Jacques Chirac and Socialist Prime Minister Lionel Jospin. The widely-expected nature of the contest would ironically almost mean it never happened that way. The far-right candidate of the Front National (FN), Jean-Marie Le Pen, benefited from enormous vote splitting against Jospin from opponents to his left, including Ardlette Laguiller of Workers' Struggle, Jean-Pierre Chevènement of the Citizens' Movement, Noël Mamère of EELV (the French Greens) and Olivier Besancenot of the Revolutionary Communist League, who took almost 20,5% of the vote combined- more than Jospin's entire voteshare- and it was only by less than 0,2% that Jospin edged out Le Pen to face Chirac in the second round, with 16,6% for Jospin to 16,5% for Le Pen. Chirac took just over 20%.

This result served as a wake-up call to the left, which had been quite critical of Jospin's economic policies, and to Jospin himself. He shifted his campaign to the left economically, citing his government's reduction of social and economic inequality, calling for housing to be made a universal right and continuing policies like increasing welfare and progressive income tax programmes. Jospin also tried to deflect criticism of his government as soft on on law and order by reminding voters of Chirac's corruption allegations as mayor of Paris and his Presidential immunity if he won re-election, with one effective ad utilizing the phrase 'tire le tapis sous lui' ('pull out the rug from under him').

As the polls had predicted, the race was extremely close. In the end, Jospin beat Chirac on his second attempt, getting 51,7% of the vote to 48,3% for Chirac in what was the second-closest presidential election in history at the time. In the legislative elections held in June, the Gauche Plurielle ('Plural Left') coalition led by the Socialists was re-elected fairly comfortably, and ironically given its shockingly strong result in the first round of the presidential election, the FN lost a huge chunk of its May vote.

The 'Plural Left' would not have an easy second term, though, as infighting became prominent. The promised spending commitments Jospin made were ultimately substantially watered down and the claim of housing as a universal right was implemented in a way Jospin's left-wing critics described as little more than a platitude. Noël Mamère attracted the condemnation of Jospin for officiating a same-sex marriage ceremony in 2004, alienating socially liberal voters and driving the Greens out of the coalition. The same year's regional elections saw the left lose badly, and by 2007, when his term ended, Jospin was a pariah among the left, with the Republicans ripe to capitalize.

(Apologies for the lack of margin colours, I can't find the percentage margins for the departments for some reason, just raw vote totals.)
 
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Something I was just thinking to myself was, one of the big stories of the 2020 election was a massive increase in turnout and support for the two main parties which meant Trump lost despite gaining 11 million votes compared to 2016, and Biden won 15 1/2 million voters more than Clinton in 2016. So I figured it'd be interesting to work out how the increase in turnout affects the electoral map if you put Biden's raw vote total in 2020 against Trump's in 2016, and Trump's in 2020 against Clinton's in 2016.

View attachment 616204
Biden 2020 vs Trump 2016: not surprisingly, Biden's victory turns into a landslide. He gains Florida, North Carolina, Texas and Utah (mostly because of Trump bleeding votes to Evan McMullin) compared to OTL 2020 and takes 394 EVs to Trump's 144. Interestingly, he doesn't manage to flip Iowa, Maine's 2nd district or Ohio.

View attachment 616208
Trump 2020 vs Clinton 2016: with an 8.4 million popular vote lead over Clinton, Trump flips Colorado, Maine's at-large vote, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire and New Mexico, and widens his victory margin in the electoral college to 339 EVs to 191 for Clinton (which would make her the first Democrat to win less than 200 EVs since Michael Dukakis). Just like how Biden couldn't flip Iowa or Ohio with a massively increased popular vote lead, though, Trump can't flip Virginia even with his 2020 vote total.
It's a strange world we live in now Utah and Texas are more liberal than Ohio and Iowa
 
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This is obviously a Democratic landslide, but can you guess the specifics of the scenario?

Who are the nominees?
What year does this take place in?
Does the Republican win any states other than Wyoming?
 
The result of an automated run on PI of 2008 Obama vs. (Ron) Paul:

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Barack Obama (D-IL)/Joe Biden (D-DE) 377 EVs, 52.3% PV
Ron Paul (R-TX)/Mike Huckabee (R-AR) 161 EVs, 44.9% PV
 
The result of an automated run on PI of 2008 Obama vs. (Ron) Paul:

View attachment 619258

Barack Obama (D-IL)/Joe Biden (D-DE) 377 EVs, 52.3% PV
Ron Paul (R-TX)/Mike Huckabee (R-AR) 161 EVs, 44.9% PV
Looks surprisingly accurate for a PI map. Personally I’d probably flip Indiana since the reason Obama won it vs. McCain in the first place was more because of his unique strength in the Midwest rather than any specific weakness McCain had there, and I seriously doubt Paul would have any more appeal in that area than McCain did
 
Carter had a broader support base in Georgia, but this is clearly a post-Solid South map. Successful Paul Simon/Zell Miller running for a second term against Paul Laxalt/Pat Buchanan?
 
Carter had a broader support base in Georgia, but this is clearly a post-Solid South map. Successful Paul Simon/Zell Miller running for a second term against Paul Laxalt/Pat Buchanan?
Pat Buchanan is actually the GOP nominee here, Paul Laxalt isn’t involved though and neither are Paul Simon or Zell Miller
 
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