AHC: Devise a scenario for how WW1 begins and unfolds with a pro-German/Austro-Hungarian Serbia and Greece alongside a pro-Entente Bulgaria and Ottoman Empire. What are the preconditions for such a system of alliances to emerge? How would the war play out assuming in the event of an Entente or Central Powers victory here?
AHC: WW1 with pro Central Powers Serbia/Greece and Pro Entente Bulgaria/Ottoman Empire
- Thread starter Basileus_Komnenos
- Start date
The may coup in 1903 Serbia is defeated, the pro-Russian faction including the proto-black hand is wiped out. The house of Obrenovic solidifies itself, and takes a strong pro-austrian position. Without a hostile Serbia, Austria might not annex Bosnia (a really good thing considering its of little use). The 1. balkan war goes mostly as OTL, only here the Austrians fully support the Serbians, hoping to have them as a southern ally. They also help the rest of the Balkan powers. The 2. Balkan war also happens, and the Austrians throw their full support behind the anti-Bulgarian forces. The Germans also decide to give some support, while the Entente is split on what to do. War ends similarly as OTL. Serbia is now strongly pro-CP, while Bulgaria drifts into the Russian sphere, both due to the historic ties and wishing for vengeance. Greece also takes a rather pro-CP possition, with the royal position strenghtened. The Ottomans would be the only anti-Bulgarian power not to receive CP aid (with both Germans and Austrians mostly writing them off), and has perhaps not managed to retake as much land as OTL. It starts to slowly drift into pro-Entente camp, especially with Greece going the other side. Albania is most likely an Austrian puppet monarchy.
The WW1 begins over a shooting incident at the Serbo-Bulgarien borders. Bulgaria gets the full support of Russia to attack, this drives in Austria-Hungary, who is supported by the Germans and the the situation is quite like OTL. The Balkan front is mostly handled by Serbian forces with limited Austrian help. Greece joins in few months to capture the rest of Bulgarian coast and permanently end Bulgaria as a threat. However, several incidents between their navy and the Ottoman are the finall straw that draws the Ottomans into the war. Meanwhile, Austria-Hungary can concentrate nearly all of its forces against the Russians. While likely still suffering defeats, they are not as severe as OTL with most of Galicia still in the hands of the KUK army. However, with Franz Ferdinand still alive, he uses this to send Conrad Hotzendorf to honourable retirement, and has him replaced with a more capable officer. With Galicia bbeing a stalemate, the Austrians send reinforcements to the Balkan front, which has seen several bloody offensive with little sucess for either side. This is enough to break the stalemate, with Sofia and Plovdiv captured by mid to late 1915. With Russia suffering defeat in East Prussia and stalemate in Galicia, Romania finally joins the fight, joining the CP (in exchange for Russian territories, and guarantees for the Romanians in Hungary). This is the final death blow to the Bulgarians. Meanwhile, the Entente is quickly reinforcing Constantinople and the straits, to make sure they are not captured. The Ottoman army, alongside the remnants of the Bulgarian army and the Franco-British expedition force sets up a deffensive line at the Bulgaro-Ottoman frontier. This becomes a giant slaughter pit.
Well, it's a bit difficult if we are talking about the OTL Entente and Central Powers. While it is true that the Ottoman Empire was largely dependent on France financially and Britain was until rather lately its main backer, it would be very problematic to have Russia and the Ottoman Empire on the same side; IOTL, the Sublime Porte actually tried to get into an alliance with Russia before it ultimately chose the Germans, in order to preserve its territorial integrity, but Russia refused, largely because it had way too many claims on Ottoman lands. Due to the Franco-Russsian ties, Cemal Pasha's overtures to the French government for an alliance with France and Britain against the Central Powers in the summer of 1914 were rejected.
Therefore, to have the Ottomans side with the Allies, perhaps you need to change the alliances themselves. If Germany ended up somehow allying with Russia and thus developed less interest for the Middle East, then if France and Britain ended up together (Britain due to fear of Russia, France due to hostility towards Germany), it would be much easier, perhaps strategically necessary, to court the Ottomans against the Russians.
With the Russians on the German side, the Austrians would be much less willing to side with Berlin. This could lead Vienna to approach the diplomatically isolated Paris. Austria could then become the recipient of the large French investment that IOTL went to Russia, enabling the Dual Monarchy to expand and improve its armed forces and its economy and thus improve its position vis-a-vis the Berlin-Saint Petersburg axis.
In response to a stronger Austro-Hungarian empire, Russia increases its support for Slav nationalists in the Balkans, especially in Serbia ; perhaps a coup like the OTL one happens earlier on and brings a pro-Russian dynasty on the throne. In response to that move, Vienna seeks to isolate Serbia by developing closer ties with Bulgaria. If Bulgaria agrees (perhaps the Russians oppose any move to annex Eastern Rumelia, angering both the Bulgarian population and the monarchy), then this could be the basis for closer Bulgarian and Austrian cooperation.
Then, if something like the Balkan Wars happen, perhaps Austrian opposition to large Serbian annexations and a greater insistence to turn Salonika into an international city and greater support for Bulgarian claims and British opposition to what would be seen as the total dismemberment of the Ottoman Empire's European holdings and Russia stealthily advancing to the Mediterranean through Serbia and /or Greece, combined with greater Russian support for Serbian claims and German support for Greek demands, especially in eastern Macedonia and the Aegean could potentially draw Belgrade and Athens closer to Saint Petersburg and Berlin respectively.
Now, I don't think this is very doable or plausible, but as far as I am concerned, I think it's one of only few ways to achieve the result posted by the OP.
Therefore, to have the Ottomans side with the Allies, perhaps you need to change the alliances themselves. If Germany ended up somehow allying with Russia and thus developed less interest for the Middle East, then if France and Britain ended up together (Britain due to fear of Russia, France due to hostility towards Germany), it would be much easier, perhaps strategically necessary, to court the Ottomans against the Russians.
With the Russians on the German side, the Austrians would be much less willing to side with Berlin. This could lead Vienna to approach the diplomatically isolated Paris. Austria could then become the recipient of the large French investment that IOTL went to Russia, enabling the Dual Monarchy to expand and improve its armed forces and its economy and thus improve its position vis-a-vis the Berlin-Saint Petersburg axis.
In response to a stronger Austro-Hungarian empire, Russia increases its support for Slav nationalists in the Balkans, especially in Serbia ; perhaps a coup like the OTL one happens earlier on and brings a pro-Russian dynasty on the throne. In response to that move, Vienna seeks to isolate Serbia by developing closer ties with Bulgaria. If Bulgaria agrees (perhaps the Russians oppose any move to annex Eastern Rumelia, angering both the Bulgarian population and the monarchy), then this could be the basis for closer Bulgarian and Austrian cooperation.
Then, if something like the Balkan Wars happen, perhaps Austrian opposition to large Serbian annexations and a greater insistence to turn Salonika into an international city and greater support for Bulgarian claims and British opposition to what would be seen as the total dismemberment of the Ottoman Empire's European holdings and Russia stealthily advancing to the Mediterranean through Serbia and /or Greece, combined with greater Russian support for Serbian claims and German support for Greek demands, especially in eastern Macedonia and the Aegean could potentially draw Belgrade and Athens closer to Saint Petersburg and Berlin respectively.
Now, I don't think this is very doable or plausible, but as far as I am concerned, I think it's one of only few ways to achieve the result posted by the OP.
Continuing this, I would expect Italy to side with the CP. They have further ambitions against the Ottomans and against Britain and France. This would probably prove crucial in France, which had to send some of its forces to the defense of the straits, and now will either have to weaken the deffense of Paris, or leave the south mostly to the Italians, neither of which is acceptable. Assuming Italy to enter somewhere at the beginning of 1916, I would not be surprised that the French would have to start negotiate peace by Summer. Meanwhile, the Germans, as well as the entire KUK army (now better organized and lead), as well as the Romanians and some Serbian and Greek units, are probably giving the Ruskies a proper beating. By the time the French are considering peace, Russia is likely pushed to the Dniepr in the south, and either Daugava or Narva in the north. The tsars regime is at the brink of utter disaster, and there seems to be no good way to win the war. The British meanwhile, have probably had successes, like capturing Crete, Libya, Italian East africa, and other outlining territories. However it is quite possible that it has suffered heavy losses against Italo-Austrian combined navies. They might also try a Galipoli style landing in Greece or Italy, but that would probably end veeery badly for them. The Ottomans meanwhile are actually not doing half-bad. While their army had probably not been most competent in Bulgaria, they have their entire territory under control, and their allies at least seem to be fully supporting them. There is a possibility that they might decide to do an Armenia style atrocity against Greeks, though with the allies so close, that might be avoided. Armenians are likely fine, considering that Russia is in theory an ally. Bulgaria is frankly screwed. Their country has heavily bled and is occupied.
As for CP, they are quite well off, though also have their own fair share of problems. The Germans are sucessfully advancing in Russia, France might soon fall, and their allies are actually doing good work. Everything is comng up Willhelm! (Aside from that arm of his). However, the Germans might be geting a little overstreched. If their forces are all the way in Estonia, the supply situation might be quite bad, and not alllow any further assault for some time. Also they have to deal with the ethnic mess they are occupying. The Austro-Hungarians are meanwhile having a time of they life, for the first time since..... early 1850's. They are actually having millitary success, and are once more considered a true Great power. Meanwhile, their sphere of influence controlls most of the Balkans, and a big chunk of Ukraine is occupied by their troops. They might have had to make some concessions to Italy and Romania (something thats probably making Franz Ferdinand going into very funny colours). Oh yes. Franzie is still kicking. He has probably by this point an almost emperor, keeping a cordial (reed: not threatening to tear them apart) position with the Hungariens, untill the war is done with, while also gathering more and more supporters for his ideas. Italy, while perhaps loosing for the moment part of their colonies, is having a grand old time in southern France. Serbians and Greeks have suceeded in their anti-Bulgaria objectives, but are having no luck against the straits. All the central powers are also probably starting to have some economicall problems, though perhaps not as harsh as OTL, while also being somewhat overstretched, and somewhat winning the war.
Frankly I would expect a pro-CP peace in late 1916, early 1917. While Britain and Ottomans might be fine to continue the war, France is near a millitary defeat, while Russia is near to an internal explosion. And if Russia and France fall, Ottomans are unlikely to hold. So a peace.
Deleted member 109224
The Obrenovic Dynasty remaining in control of Serbia and Austria not annexing Bosnia puts Serbia in the CP camp, as mentioned above.
Because Serbia sends troops into Bosnia during the TTL Balkan War, Bulgaria ends up grabbing most of Vardar Macedonia south of the Ohrid-Kratovo line and Salonika - resulting in no Second Balkan War despite the Serbs being very unhappy with Bulgaria not supporting their Albanian claims.
WW1 instead starts over the East Aegean Islands dispute, with the Greeks attacking the Ottomans as the British-built dreadnaught is to be delivered. The Bulgarians hop in on the Greek side hoping to take Constantinople. The Russians enter on the Ottoman side to keep the Bulgarians from taking the straits.
Austria backs up Greece and Bulgaria and promises a partition of Albania between Greece and Serbia for Serbia joining on the Austrian side. France follows Russia to War. Italy goes either way.
Because Serbia sends troops into Bosnia during the TTL Balkan War, Bulgaria ends up grabbing most of Vardar Macedonia south of the Ohrid-Kratovo line and Salonika - resulting in no Second Balkan War despite the Serbs being very unhappy with Bulgaria not supporting their Albanian claims.
WW1 instead starts over the East Aegean Islands dispute, with the Greeks attacking the Ottomans as the British-built dreadnaught is to be delivered. The Bulgarians hop in on the Greek side hoping to take Constantinople. The Russians enter on the Ottoman side to keep the Bulgarians from taking the straits.
Austria backs up Greece and Bulgaria and promises a partition of Albania between Greece and Serbia for Serbia joining on the Austrian side. France follows Russia to War. Italy goes either way.
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(just my views)
Well, perhaps. But then it is not to the Ottomans' best interest to join; there isn't any guarantee that the Russians would actually uphold their part of such a bargain and the Sublime Porte would like something tangible in return for its support. Also, if the Ottomans seem to remain neutral - at least for the time being, then the Russians may move even more of their troops towards the Eastern Front, which, combined with most European powers being busy with the war, means that there is no direct threat against the Ottomans; without a direct threat, it would be a far more logical move for the Ottomans to just sit out of the conflict, with the somewhat pro-Allied (Cemal Pasha) and pro-German (Enver Pasha) voices balancing each other. Thus, no entry in the war in November 1914 most likely means a neutral Ottoman empire. Without the various fronts in Mesopotamia, the Caucasus, Egypt (and Callipoli, if Ottoman neutrality lasts longer than a few months), the British and the Russians have more men and resources available to use against the Germans, which might lead to an earlier end to the war or at least be in a better position.
When the two alliances begin to court the Ottomans, the Allies will be in trouble because all their offers are not "guaranteed": if they tried to offer the Aegean islands, this would infuriate Greece; IOTL, Venizelos was willing to hand over eastern Macedonia to Bulgaria per Allied proposal largely because there were promises of territorial gains in Asia Minor that would more than compensate (theoreticaly at least) for that loss. If the Allies offer the Aegean islands to the Ottomans and they also want to get Bulgaria on board, this is going to be difficult, as Athens would refuse to hand over their hard-earned gains from the Balkan Wars in the Aegean and eastern Macedonia to the two powers it fought then without something really substantial in return, which means that Northern Epirus and Cyprus wouldn't suffice: and this would most likely be the maximum the Allies would be able to offer, as the only other potential offer, the Dodecanese would certainly infuriate another neutral, Italy and is therefore unlikely to be made either to Greece or the Ottomans.
If they try to offer the three provinces in the Caucasus, the Russians are lkely going to raise hell; IOTL, this offer was made when the Germans were marching through Poland and seemed unstoppable; ITTL, with the situation being likely different to OTL and the Germans having less success, Saint Petersburg might not even entertain the idea.
Also, the Bulgarians are most likely going to ask for lands which belong to the Ottomans (like the area around the Maritsa river that originally belonged to the Ottomans but was handed over to Bulgaria in 1915 in exchange for its entry to the war). IOTL, the Ottomans agreed on this after pressure from the Germans and the Austrians and after reversals such as the battle of Sarikami and the beginning of the operations in Gallipoli; ITTL, the Ottomans are not as badly pressed and thus they wouldn't be so ready to discuss such a proposal.
Now, it may be possible for the Allies to convince the Bulgarians to enter the war on their side by offering them Vardar Macedonia and promising to exert pressure on Romania and Greece to hand over Dobrudja and Eastern Macedonia respectively; but it would be very difficult to offer teritorial gains to the Ottomans which wouldn;'t create diplomatic troubles with other countries or are against the interests of the Entente powers. Unless the entry of the Ottomans in the war is deemed as absolutely necessary, I would say that the Enente powers would contend themselves with continued Ottoman neutrality and free use of the Straits. There is a chance that the Ottomans may decide to enter the war on the Allied side just to be on the right side when the whole story ends, but this would happen if the Allies seem poised to win; otherwise, there would be too strong an opposition to such a move.
If Serbia is pro-Central Powers how does the war start exactly?
That's basically @Sārthākā 's Osman Reborn timeline?
That's basically @Sārthākā 's Osman Reborn timeline?
yes, just with Ottoman joining the war. Fits the criteria.
I was thinking if I should have said that's where I got the idea from. I decided not to, Should I?
Looking at a map there is an obvious problem in Greece starting any war, where she is not with the side that controls the sea. It runs the dangers of being starved on one hand and the majority of her economy and population being within easy range of naval artillery. So you want Greece against the Entente? Bring Britain on the Central powers as well. At a minimum remove the Royal Navy from the equation and secure at least parity between the Entente and Central Powers in the Mediterranean.
Deleted member 160141
The Reinsurance Treaty strengthens to an alliance. Combine this with Austria being more buttmad at Germany over being kicked out of Grossdeutschland and facefirst into the Balkans than IOTL, and you have Germany and Russia against Austria, who'll naturally ally with France and Britain against a common enemy. Serbia is anti-Austrian by default and part of Russia's list of prerequisites to unlocking the achievement of Super-Slav Empire, so it sides with them. Istanbul Constantinople is also on that list, so Turkey automatically goes to the Entente.
Bulgaria follows because it's got beef with Serbia and Romania; they both have beef with Austria, so Austria seems like a good ally.
No way the Greeks risk the wrath of the British Mediterranean Squadron, though.
Bulgaria follows because it's got beef with Serbia and Romania; they both have beef with Austria, so Austria seems like a good ally.
No way the Greeks risk the wrath of the British Mediterranean Squadron, though.
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Deleted member 160141
What would be most interesting would be the postwar dynamic in such a situation. As I've always said, German steel + Russian men and supplies = automatic win.
Germany will still have mounting fears of a stable Russia's economic growth (it, along with China, was the top rising economy from 1890s onward), and the discovery of uranium and nuclear power is going to start quite the arms race.
The world in general, however, will suffer none of the bullshit or ideological movement that post-WW1 era was characterized by. The dominant ideological centers will be reactionary Moscow and liberal London, with Berlin threading the line somewhere between the two.
In most cases that don't end in a nuclear war, Russia dominates big-time and America remains isolationist.
Germany gets Austria, Hungary is let go minus its Slavic territories, and the Balkans become New South Russia.
Russia probably gives some token of support for Greece, like ceding its share of Turkey to them so they can do the Megali Idea; they're fellow Orthodox powers, after all.
Expect a Russo-German split somewhere down the line. Germany allies with England to balance Russia.
France becomes even more buttmad at Germany after getting railed a second time and so joins Russia's team.
At this point, you've got Russia/France vs. Britain/Germany. Fuck knows how Japan or America flip, but they probably flip in opposite directions considering their conflicting interests in China. If the Anglo-American tensions of the 20s/30s flare up, Japan takes up the old Anglo-Japanese alliance. If the Japanese military's schizophrenia gets the better of it before that, the reverse happens.
Germany will still have mounting fears of a stable Russia's economic growth (it, along with China, was the top rising economy from 1890s onward), and the discovery of uranium and nuclear power is going to start quite the arms race.
The world in general, however, will suffer none of the bullshit or ideological movement that post-WW1 era was characterized by. The dominant ideological centers will be reactionary Moscow and liberal London, with Berlin threading the line somewhere between the two.
In most cases that don't end in a nuclear war, Russia dominates big-time and America remains isolationist.
Germany gets Austria, Hungary is let go minus its Slavic territories, and the Balkans become New South Russia.
Russia probably gives some token of support for Greece, like ceding its share of Turkey to them so they can do the Megali Idea; they're fellow Orthodox powers, after all.
Expect a Russo-German split somewhere down the line. Germany allies with England to balance Russia.
France becomes even more buttmad at Germany after getting railed a second time and so joins Russia's team.
At this point, you've got Russia/France vs. Britain/Germany. Fuck knows how Japan or America flip, but they probably flip in opposite directions considering their conflicting interests in China. If the Anglo-American tensions of the 20s/30s flare up, Japan takes up the old Anglo-Japanese alliance. If the Japanese military's schizophrenia gets the better of it before that, the reverse happens.
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Wouldn't they both be blockaded? By Britian (with Ottomans blocking Black sea).
Though I suppose it won't matter much, as they would win the war before they would start suffering from shortage.
Who would the Italy join?
Deleted member 160141
Shortages of what? Food, raw resources, machine parts -- all sourced from the vast depths of Russia. They did have the best agricultural land in the world (the entire western steppe belt), were the world exporters of iron prior to the war and had plenty of factories of their own, ya know; it wasn't just a medieval shithole like the communists love portraying it to be, especially in the last few decades.
Italy is anti-Austria, so they'd probably settle for the Alliance.
For Russia, machines and for Germany, food.
But I suppose they would complement each other their rather nicely.
Would there be multiple fronts for Russia, like Japan attacking their Eastern possessions.
Would Britian be able to coax Persia and Afghanistan to attack Russia's Central Asian possessions?
Poor time to be Austria.
Also would Italy be able handle having two fronts?
Deleted member 160141
Exactly, which is why they'll work so well in the beginning, but inevitably will split in the postwar period once Russia fully catches up and starts growling again.
A caught-up Russia which doesn't take the economic buttfucking the Communist Party gave it is a scary thing because it can keep growing, like the US only with much more land and much more arable and exploitable land. That sort of empire, with infinite resources to draw upon, a solid ethnic base and a reactionary moral system and, depending on how constitutionalized it gets (which is not a given), a solid government, is going to be very unwilling to turn inward to navelgaze and morally beat itself up like the US does today.
Unlike the US, it's not going to be the cultural capital of the world. At least not by any measure such as Disney. Unlike the US, there are no other Russian-speaking great powers related to it like Canada/Britain/Australia for America. In fact, most people are going to still be rather terrified of "the Ivan", only this time it's not because he's a communist... it's because he's an imperialist, and he's the biggest of them all.
If you consider how much people, especially upper-class people, in the Anglosphere allegedly loathed communism and socialism and anything red, it would come as quite a shock that they actually spared more vitriol for reactionary Russia and Germany back when those still existed, and you can see this in just how juvenile the wartime anti-German propaganda was at the time and how unsubtle it was about America and Britain's ideological leanings.
For more detail, look into The War for Righteousness: Progressive Christianity, the Great War and the Rise of the Messianic Nation. Interesting book; you wouldn't think religious nuts from 1910s America would be the direct ancestors of Bushism and modern progressivism, but there you have it.
Depends on if the Japanese get involved, which they might... but they might not, considering the magnitude of the forces disparity between the European combatants alone makes fighting in this war a risky proposition.
No idea, but probably not. They wanted a balance between the two powers in their area, because that allowed them to act as more-or-less untouchable buffer states. Remove one lion and the other swoops in to attack.
Probably poorly, which is why it likely stays out of it. No sense getting beat up for no real gain and high risk of death.
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