AHC: Cold War Between Socialism/Communism and Fascism

With a POD after November 11, 1918, come up with a scenario where the Cold War analogue pits either socialism or communism against fascism. Bonus points if you get liberal democracy be seen as an "obsolete" form of government in your scenario like monarchies are IOTL, a "failed" system of government like communism is IOTL, and/or are stamped out like fascism IOTL in the WW2 analogue as well instead of the remaining liberal democracies being unaligned kingmakers.
 
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The best way I can imagine it happening is if the US collapsed on itself after their independence. Before the US proved it was possible, political philosophy of the time believed that large multicultural republics were impossible to maintain.

Problem is that the POD is way far back from what you're asking.

The US were having hardships when the Great Depression happened. If it caused a civil war or balkanization into smaller nations, it might work.

A push for monarchies to take fascist leanings as a way to protect themselves from better organized communist states

The problem to make a proof that a social, political, and/or economic model is wrong is that the disaster has to be big enough to make a majority consensus that it is wrong. Basically, to prove liberal democracies wrong requires a large collapse in many nations, resulting in either revolution, dictatorships or bringing back power to the monarchy. An even worse Great Depression doesn't work since it affects everyone and thus will not be seen as a problem inherent to liberal democracy as a form of government.
 
Well, the basic scenario is "Commie/Socialist v.s Fascist Cold War". Having liberal democracy fall is just a "bonus".

Basically, the US has to remain isolationist for much longer. And even then, 1918 POD would set up a more three sided cold war.

The pact between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union would need to stay in effect but both sides wanted to double cross the other and in OTL Germany did the back stab first.

it's possible for a fascist-nationalist monarchist ideology to develop in Italy and Japan but not Germany since the monarchy became really unpopular for losing the war.

There is also the possibility for a more anarcho-communist or at least syndicalist take of socialist winning out and those are more democratic than the Soviet Union
 
The Versailles negotiations break down for the US as an over ideological Wilson and Republican Senators waffle over terms and get increasingly annoyed by French and British demands followed by a failure to service their loan payments (Why? Germany not paying France maybe pleading poverty and gumming up the circuit). To enforce payment despite intransigence, the US imposes a tariff/value added tax on all commerce with the Empires, cutting deeply into trade and giving credence to the idea of Autarky/New Merchanalist policies as Western Europe scrambles to correct the slip into dependence on an increasingly moralist America and prevent Communiss from exploiting the lower class resentment that high prices and limited supplies create. Wartime departments related to rationing, censorship, ect. aren't fully phased out but retained as a safety value while resources are funneled into improving raw resource production in the Colonies and metabolizing native labor, making the idea of de-colonization (Pushed by Communists and Liberals alike) increasingly unpalatable, especially as shriviling connections to the US means the Free Market types have fewer carrots to offer. As part of this, in order to lock down the resources of China the Anglo-French strike a bargin with the Japanese; encouraging and accepting their occupation of Outer Manchuria by signing off on also allowing them into Inner Manchuria/Manchuko and working with the various Cliques to stablize China as a balkanized zone, Britain in particular sweetening the deal by cranking up production of Middle Eastern Oil and opening it up to the Japanese and "encouraging" investment in the Dutch Indies. The Imperialist Sphere becomes an increasingly closed economy, Weimer being twisted into a similar position and Italy going down a similar pah to our timeline. That should allow Fascist policies to slowly develop into a new normal and form a robust Bloc, though this requires threading some careful needles in terms of territoral conflict by playing the EEC/EU logic of bound economies much earlier and the whole thing sticking
 
An even worse Great Depression doesn't work since it affects everyone and thus will not be seen as a problem inherent to liberal democracy as a form of government.
True. However, fascists can point out how Nazi Germany recovered quicker than the Western Democracies after the Nazis took over while communists could point out the USSR wasn't heavily affected at all (at least to the outside world). They could therefore argue that liberal democracy, like monarchies before them, are now "obsolete".
 
True. However, fascists can point out how Nazi Germany recovered quicker than the Western Democracies after the Nazis took over while communists could point out the USSR wasn't heavily affected at all (at least to the outside world). They could therefore argue that liberal democracy, like monarchies before them, are now "obsolete".

That's more of a critique of Laizze Faire Capitalism, and given the Capitalist economies did recover it just shows they are less apt at handling certain problems, not universally obsolete and non-functional. Arguably, you need the US to sink into permanent economic malaise, which barring Civil War is basically not possible, to get them to flip. Stay isolated in their hemisphere? Way easier.
 
The German Revolution is successful and much of East Europe falls under Communist influence, then a Comintern Vs France and Britain war leads to Communist Europe. The US is isolationist and due to fascists that fled Italy and Germany, a far right movement using the iconography of fascism but with American twist comes to power. Britain remains free of Comintern due to navy but signs peace deal to quell domestic unrest and then falls under US influence. Japan remains militarist and an ally of the US and China falls under the influence of Comintern. Cold war with proxy battles mainly in South America, former colonies, and East Asia.
 
The German Revolution is successful and much of East Europe falls under Communist influence, then a Comintern Vs France and Britain war leads to Communist Europe. The US is isolationist and due to fascists that fled Italy and Germany, a far right movement using the iconography of fascism but with American twist comes to power. Britain remains free of Comintern due to navy but signs peace deal to quell domestic unrest and then falls under US influence. Japan remains militarist and an ally of the US and China falls under the influence of Comintern. Cold war with proxy battles mainly in South America, former colonies, and East Asia.
Would Liberal Democracy here be seen as "obsolete" and "outdated" like monarchies are seen IOTL?
 
A Cold War involving fascists is impossible - you're dealing with people for whom destruction and apocalypse is an ideological feature, not a bug. A better bet would be a Cold War of Communism vs Right-wing Authoritarians (Franco, Salazar, et al).

Note that in OTL 1930s, liberal democracy *was* seen among many people as obsolete.
 
It's cheating with the POD, but an indecisive German victory in the First World War may have this effect, if you can destroy the French Republic and install an old-school reactionary regime, a la Vichy. Meanwhile, if Britain (via a 1920s Liberal Government desperate to remain relevant) introduces proportional representation, the structural obstacle to more extreme parties is no longer there. Throw in a Depression-level economic downturn, and a right-wing authoritarian (but non-Nazi) Western Europe versus the Soviet Union might be a thing.
 
This would have probably been the outcome of a successful Third Reich vs. America cold war. The FDR administration was pretty much socialist, and all those communist refugees from Europe probably would end up turning the USA Red(maybe just Pink) by the 70's.
 
This would have probably been the outcome of a successful Third Reich vs. America cold war. The FDR administration was pretty much socialist, and all those communist refugees from Europe probably would end up turning the USA Red(maybe just Pink) by the 70's.

It wouldn't be a Cold War. It'd be a very Hot War.
 
It wouldn't be a Cold War. It'd be a very Hot War.

If the US gets involved in this Alt-WW2, then maybe. Otherwise I think it unlikely that the US would declare war without a clear cases-beli, though perhaps I am underestimating the depravity of mid-century American foreign policy.
 
US Civil War in the 30s balkanises it into a Japanese-leaning Pacific Republic, a Communist Midwest, a Canada-leaning rump US in New England and a reactionary South, similarish to Kaiserreich. Nazi rise to power, Italian fascism and Japanese militarism all happen on schedule.

Leon Trotsky wins the power struggle following Lenin's death and sponsors a revolution in Finland, which is followed by a short and brutal Soviet invasion.

Britain (with Edward VIII as King) and France really freak out, especially as Poland, Sweden, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Greece, Yugoslavia, Romania and Bulgaria look to Hitler and Mussolini for protection from the Soviets. The Soviets annex the Baltics and ally with Republican Spain. Portugal are kinda allied to both the Western Bloc and the Axis.

Alliances in 1936

Axis Pact
  • Germany
  • Italy
  • Japan
  • Hungary
  • Yugoslavia
  • Romania
  • Bulgaria
  • Greece
  • Sweden
  • Poland
  • Czechoslovakia
  • Confederacy
  • Pacific Republic
Western Bloc
  • UK
  • France
  • Netherlands
  • Belgium
  • Denmark
  • Norway
  • All the dominions except Ireland
  • USA

Comintern
  • USSR
  • Mongolia
  • Spain
  • Chinese Communists
  • United American Syndicalist States
Neutrals
  • Republic of China
  • Portugal
  • South America
  • Siam
  • Turkey
  • All the traditional European neutrals
Spain kicks off and the WB and Axis covertly aid Franco, starting an informal anti-Commie co-operation. The Commies are aiding Spain, with the Soviets much more involved than OTL and Germany and Italy sending "volunteers". The International Brigades aren't really a thing, but the UASS send volunteers.

Trotsky encourages the Republicans to invade Salazar's Portugal which immensely pissed Britain off. By this point, Churchill, a noted anti-Communist and anti-Fascist, is PM and he goes all out on Spain, ending the war in 1937. This makes Trotsky panic as his list of allies are growing rather thin, so he manages to get Chiang and Mao to both ally with him and fight the Japanese. He focuses on Asia, funding many anti-colonialist movements, including those of Ho Chi Minh and Subhas Chandra Bose. In doing so, he becomes a major enemy of Japan, who are constantly demanding Hitker and Mussolini do something.

The South is now under the control of a fanatic named Fake Jeatherstone and, inspired by Hitler, he invades the UASS in early 1940. This is the spark that leads to World War II. The Soviets can't really help them but decide to attack Japan as a distraction, joined by the two Chinas. He also encourages uprisings in India, Indochina and the Dutch East Indies, distracting France, Britain and the Netherlands. The East Indies and India are hugely important to their owners so the UK and the Netherlands commit most of their troops there. France are pretty leftist and see no reason to help the reactionaries.

On the American Front, it devolves into bloody trench warfare in Kentucky and Missouri, with gas being used on troops and civilians, creating basically the nightmare of British strategic planners of the 20s and 30s. The USA are strictly neutral and are selling to both sides while Canada are reluctantly supporting the reactionaries by distracting the UASS with ghost units mixed with real soldiers. The PR are initially neutral before invading the UASS from the west, leading to a reactionary breakthrough that allows them to take Chicago in 1942, the UASS capital. However, the war devolves into brutal guerilla warfare with both sides committing atrocities.

In Asia, there is a brutal war in Manchuria between the Chinese/Soviets and the Japanese. It is looking bad for Japan but Trotsky has to withdraw troops to send to Europe so the front solidifies into a WW1-style stalemate. India turns into guerilla warfare with the British, supported by the BIA, winning. Indochina is slipping away from France, who don't realise how bad the situation is. Siam is still neutral. An attempted Chinese invasion of Taiwan is easily defeated by the IJN, who seize Hong Kong and a lot of territory on the south coast.

In Europe, the Soviets launch a three-pronged offensive. In the north, they invade Sweden and Norway with the goals of Oslo, Stockholm and Copenhagen. In the centre, they smash through the Polish and East Prussian borders with the aim of Berlin. In the south, they invade Romania with the aims of the Ploesti oil fields and the Mediterranean coast. Unfortunately for them, building up a huge and unpurged army is unsubtle and the Nazis and Poles are heavily prepared for them. Due to pure numbers, they take most of East Prussia, leaving a pocket around Konigsberg, and reach Posen. In the Battle of Posen, fought between October 1941 and January 1942, the Soviets are routed in freezing conditions, with Boston sides losing about 1.8 million soldiers, and begin a long retreat. In other news, Konigsberg is taken. Sweden and Norway aren't as heavily defended so Sweden is completely taken leading to the long Siege of Copenhagen between the Soviets and the Nazis/Danes/Brits before Field Marshal Manstein relieves the city in July 1942. Norway is completely taken despite the efforts of Britain. They make progress through Romania and take the oilfields, leading to problems for the allies. They take Bucharest and push into Bulgaria, where they suffer some minor setbacks but reach the Mediterranean at Thessaloniki in autumn 1942.

The south consolidate their control over the midwest and face some rebellions, but deal with them brutally. The PR sets up a puppet state in the plains states and Minnesota.

As the Soviets have withdrawn most of their men, the Chinese begin to squabble which leads to a resumption of the civil war in May 1943, allowing Japan to break out of Manchuria and rapidly advance, taking Beijing, Xi'an, Shanghai and Nanjing, throwing China into chaos. However, they run out of momentum soon after and Xi'an is retaken by Chiang in September 1944. Vietnam is completely taken by Ho, who establishes the Socialist Federal Republic of Indochina, quickly defeating the French throughout the rest of the colony. The Indian Crisis is resolved but it is agreed that a Federal Republic of India will have independence on January 1st 1945, with Nehru as President and Jinnah as Prime Minister. The Dutch are still struggling in the East Indies, so they are aided by the Australians and British who turn the war around.

The Allies continue pushing the Soviets back and retake Warsaw and East Prussia but they suffer a bad defeat at Brest in March 1944. Manstein pushes into Sweden, where the Soviets quickly collapse, liberating Norway and Sweden. He pushes into Finalnd which collapses into chaos as he gets bogged down and partisans gets out of hand. At the time of Brest, he is 350 km away from Leningrad. Yugoslavia, Hungary and Italy launch a huge offensive in spring 1943 and they successfully cut off the Soviets (who surrender) and push into Ukraine, with Kiev falling in April 1944.

The WB want to initiate peace talks with the Soviets, which the Axis are hugely opposed to for ideological reasons. By this time, Trotsky has been couped by the Red Army. However, Hitler knows he can't continue without British and French support so the two sides decide to negotiate in neutral Istanbul. The Treaty of Istanbul is signed on December 15th 1944 and states that status quo ante bellum borders will occur with the exception of America, where a neutral Midwestern Republic will be established.

However, this does not stop fighting in Finland or Asia. Finland breaks out into another civil war between Communists and Anti-Communists, which ends when Panzers roll through the country setting up a nazi-aligned authoritarian state. This kicks off the Cold War, with the Soviets doubling down on funding revolutionary movements, causing unrest in Poland, Yugoslavia, Greece, Romania, France, Ireland and the UK. Belgium, France and the UK become more closely aligned with the Axis. The Japanese are pushed back into Manchuria again, and the borders solidify. The Chinese Civil War begins again. And there you have it, a cold war between fascists and communists.

Damn. Too many good timeline ideas and so little time.
 
Somewhat ASB, but I have something of this as a backstory for a novel I will never have the time to write.

Some of the bigger points
Nazi-Sov alliance happens as OTL, with Hitler dying soon after.

Goering becomes Fuhrer and has less interest in conquering Russia and more on building up Fascism (and German domination of Fascism).

Meanwhile, a more succesful communist movement in India leads to outright rebellion and civil war in the 30s. The USSR , feeling more secure, outright joins in and causes a state of war to exist with the UK. The anti-communism turns the UK right wing enough that it becomes more and more right wing, leading to a popular election by Mosley after Britain loses the war and a commitment to not getting involved in Europe (believing that they were stabbed in the back in India by fears of needing to keep a larger force at home in case of continental unrest).

As OTL, France and Germany are at war, but with no UK, Germany steamrolls France even harder and the occupation is, as OTL, very Bloody.

The Atomic bomb is developed for reasons I can't quite think of. Although the world looks poised to enter a more brutal WW2, similar cold war stuff occurs instead.
 
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