A Lusophone World
Lusitania
Donor
iOTL both Spain and Portugal did actually limp along till the late 1950s, luckily for the Spanish they did not get sucked into a colonial war that consumed 25-40% of government revenue which severely limited Portugal growth during the 1960s. IOTL it took the Spanish till 1950 for their GDP to reach pre-Civil war levels. iTTL their economy was actually lower by 10% by 1946 due to influence from Portugal and it would take them till the mid 1950s and American intervention (like iOTL) to revive the economy. Having a country beside them that was continually growing at very high level resulted in disadvantage to the Spanish. With Smuggling of Portuguese goods into Spain a huge problem for the Spanish.
Spain would not begin correcting their deficiencies till the late 1950s and 1960s. The Portuguese on the other hand had been addressing their economic deficiencies since the 1930s and by 1940s and 1950s were experiencing rapid economic development.
The Spanish gave up all of their territory on the African continent and adjacent islands, leaving them with only the Canaries and Beleric islands outside the Iberian Peninsula. The inclusion of Ceuta and Melilla was crucial to the Portuguese for without those the Portuguese were not interested. They by stroke of good luck and circumstances held all the cards unlike the Spanish who were desperate. For a World Bank and IMF rescue would of still left the country straddled with large external debt and being forced to place their colonies under UN jurisdiction. The deal resulted in the Spanish being clear of External debt and should of left the country in a position to invest heavily in infrastructure and education while restructuring their economy. Instead it left the country politically reeling and unable to take advantage of the economic circumstances.
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Lusitania
Donor
Lol...that actually was Portugal role for so long even iotl. For all of American displeasure the Portuguese just continued along limping and growing fighting against the forces stayed against them till they finally lost the will to continue. For the Portuguese only really lost guinea the rest was controlled.
Here we have a new country more industrialized by 1950 then it was in 1970 and about to embark on an impossible dream of creating a federation which was exactly the opposite of what the Americans had told them to do. Then to the absolute horror of the American President and government they had gone and horse traded colonies with Spain another untrusted nation.
President Truman lamented that if only communism and the threat from the Soviet Union was not such a major threat the US would dismantle the annoying Portuguese colonial mess.
Worse was the European attitude, for the Americans could not understand the attitude of the British and French. While in one hand the two disapproved of the Portuguese actions they seemed to admire them for their ingenuity and attitude. On 23 of December 1949 the outgoing American Ambassador to Britain Lewis W. Douglas published a long list of all the despicable things the Portuguese had done since the war and asked why no one in Europe was outraged like the US:
- Trading with Axis, even after they promised not to.
- Alleged negotiations with Nazi Germans to join Axis.
- Accepting looted gold from Nazis
- Joining the Allies to avoid condemnation
- Providing refuge to several prominent Nazi, including scientists and other professionals.
- Actively recruiting desperate Germans to migrate to Portugal.
- Stealing technology from Nazis.
- Disregarding US advise in decolonizing
- Enacting the federation which everyone knew was just coverup to maintaining their colonies.
- Interfering and actively supporting insurgents in the Indian and former Dutch East Indies civil wars.
- Manipulating Spain in times of need by forcing them to trade their African colonies for debt relief.
Edit made correction to wrong adjective describing our US friends attitude thanks to Scretchy for pointing that out.
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interesting post but i think you mean hypocritical instead of hippocratic. Dont think all americans swear a hippocratic oath
Lusitania
Donor
The Portuguese - Spanish negotiated for the following territories to be turned over to Portugal:
- Spanish Morocco which included Ceuta and Melilla but till 1957 also include most of Morocco north of the Riff mountains (with exception of Tangiers which was controlled by France).
- The enclave of Ifni
- Spanish Sahara which included Bens Morocco province and Western Sahara.
- Spanish Guinea which included the islands of Fernando Po and Ambon along with mainland Rui Muni territory.
The Spanish populations in the colonies were shocked. Spanish authorities, police and military were summoned in middle of night on November 30 and told of the handover by Spanish officials. There was much anger and despair by many upon hearing of the news but they had no time to do anything since handover was within hours. Their instructions was to assemble at dawn and be present when on December 1st the Portuguese forces, police and administrators who were offshore already landed. At 7 Am a brief ceremony was done to lower Spanish flag and raise Portuguese flag and all Spanish officials were dismissed and went home or barracks to pack and tell their families and friends the news. The government officials were not given a choice and had to leave by end of December 1. They only took personal belonging as they were boarding ships and left. Government officials were instructed to leave all equipment, paperwork and such. Military personnel took their personal weapons. All personal belonging and vehicles were then packed and shipped by Portuguese. While all military equipment was also packed by Portuguese and shipped back to Spain. All of this took few weeks to load.
In the morning of December 1 there was a general announcement to all residents of the coastal towns with portuguese officials speaking in Spanish or local languages. As day went by Portuguese officials took possession of all inland towns and Spanish possessions while those officials also went ordered home.
A letter outlining the hand over was delivered to all spanish residents and posted in center of all towns and villages in Portuguese, Spanish and local language.
The shocked locals (Africans and Moroccans) and the Spanish civilian were dealt with differently. The locals were told that everything would stay the same (but it did not, but that for the 1950s section) while the Spanish were told that each person could apply for Portuguese residency card and remain in Portugal those who wished to return to Spain could do so, any property in the colonies would be bought at fair market value (prior to transfer). Each Spanish citizen had until December 15 to decide after which those refusing to apply for a Portuguese residency card would be detained and deported to Spain and any property they owned be forfeited to Portuguese government.
The new Portuguese authorities would over the first half of December also issue several more statements that outlined several new laws, rules of conduct and also to reassure people, the statements included the following:
- Portuguese language was to become the official language of all areas under Portuguese rule. Translation would be offered to those not speaking until such times as residents became proficient in Portuguese.
- All property of the Spanish government was now officially property of Portuguese government. All legal obligations of the Spanish government would be honored by the Portuguese government.
- All legal residents would be offered Portuguese citizenship as per current Portuguese residency law.
- All people born in the colonies both prior to 1 December 1949 and after be entitled to all current and future Portuguese citizenship laws applicable to all residents of overseas provinces.
- Former Spanish colonies were placed under martial law till 1 January 1950, after which all existing Portuguese laws would be published and become law.
- It was illegal to incite others to rebel, and or act out against Portuguese authorities (any person caught doing so would be dealt with by authorities and such person would be either deported to country of birth or imprisoned.)
- Acting out or perpetrating action against Portuguese authorities would result in immediate arrest and imprisonment.
- All adults would be required to enroll in Portuguese language classes (written and oral) when offered with stated goal of learning Portuguese.
- All children would be enrolled in mandatory Portuguese schools as soon as they were established (no exceptions).
- The Portuguese people were delighted to welcome each and every person to the prosperous and free Portuguese Republic. The Portuguese government would do everything possible to make the transition as easy as possible and take the utmost care to make the transition easy for everyone. “Bem-vindo” Welcome.
While the loading of belongings was happening ports were very busy with the unloading of materials, vehicles and people from Portugal and it’s overseas provinces. as the days went by and the extent of the stuff being unloaded and people arriving it showed the people living there (locals and Spanish civilians) that the Portuguese had much more resources, power and money than the Spanish had. The business owners soon realized that business would improve considerably and many went out of their way to be pleasant to the Portuguese and invite them into their shops.
The arrival of hundreds of civilians and other officials in the various areas in the first few weeks soon led everyone to understand that huge plans were underway and that life would change. Those that stayed also came to the conclusion as the number of people arriving continued to increase that they would become a small minority in the growing population. Included in those that started to arrive in the following years were the Spanish who had emigrated over the last 10 years to Portugal. While they still spoke Spanish they were different than those who had stayed behind, already touched and changed by their adopted country like all emigrants are.
In the first few days of Portuguese rule there were those who felt betrayed by the Spanish government turnover and chose to return to Spain and not live under Portuguese rule (less than 25% of Spanish citizens). Those that remained majority were either linked to the territory or felt life under Franco Spain be worse than under Portuguese. A informal survey if why these people were leaving stated that Spanish nationalism was the primary reason of returning to Spain.
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I'm sure that for Spain, this was a painful deal to make, but loosing so much debt was too good of an offer. I wonder how Olivença will be treated differently by the Portuguese compared to the rest of Spain. I'm guessing that whenever Spain needs disaster relief, Olivença (and probably Galicia) gets first dibs?
Lusitania
Donor
As compensation to the people of Olivenza not being able to join Portugal (there was a growing support of the people there to join ) the Portuguese instituted several measures.
(Note the Spanish industrial zones were to the east and Western Spain especially areas bordering Portugal were not very industrialized with majority of Spanish people living as farmers and very little industry. In the 1940s as industry sprung up in Portugal many Spanish would cross the border illegally and legally to work in Portugal. With some only travelling back on weekends. As Portuguese Industrialization continued it expanded into more towns and cities with border areas around Minho, Beira and Alentejo having substancial number or Spanish working. Some Spanish were able to get work permits but majority worked clandestine and did not receive full salaries. But due to labor shortages in many companies the government issued work exemptions to the people since their entry and living in Portugal was monitored by DGS/SIS and Portuguese security forces. In many places the people would cross the border and board buses waiting for them on the Portuguese side of border. Entry into Portugal was at times difficult for Spanish border agents would demand to see papers before letting them exit (requiring a bribe to leave) therefore some would only cross border once a week or once month.
The city of Badajoz was a good example of the large Border city where 10-20% of the adult population lived in Spain but worked in Portugal. Portuguese cities of Estremoz and Evora were the primary destination for the migrant workers but crossing the border could take 1-3 hours and people would line up at 2 am to cross at 6 am when border opened but some days only opened at 7 or 8 depending on mood of Spanish guards. Attempts by Portuguese to formalize border crossing and open border 24 hours were rebuffed by Spanish especially since the collapse of the Iberian Agreement in 1945.
So a side agreement was signed by Portuguese - Spanish in 1949 to allow for a trial process of unlimited border crossing for residents of county "consellho" of Olivenza only. It would operate 24/7 with buses running from Olivenza to Estremoz and Evora. People would board a bus in Olivenza bus terminal have documents checked and then at border the border officer got off and bus continued to Portuguese cities. On return trip at border the officer boarded the bus and people showed id when the got off bus at station. Those with Olivenza residency ID were waived through while those from outside the county had to go through additional screening. The system worked very well with majority of residents of Olivenza traveling to Federation to work on weekdays leaving only the elders and children behind. This of course was never extended to any other part of Spain with people of Badajoz to the north continuing to be stymied by Spanish border services. This did not mean that Spanish from other regions did not cross the border to work in the Federation, in some ways Portuguese Federation became dependent on Spanish migrant works with emigration estimates in the mid 1950s putting the number of Galicians living and working in the Federation at over 250,000.
The special treatment for Olivenza of course would play a huge role in the way people voted on the Spanish referendum after the Second Spanish civil war of 1955, with Olivenza and Badajoz results being complete oposite.
PS: please have a look at post 227 for additional explanation and clarification on some points. Thanks
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1940s - The Post War Years (1945 - 1949) - World (2 of 3)
Lusitania
Donor
Due to some readers questions regarding several major events that happened after the war I decided it would be easier for readers if we were to publish the World Section next an then return to the other sections such as economics, Security and Health & Education. The World Section is divided into 3 sections (Europe, Middle East & Asia and South America with special emphasis on Brazil and Argentina).
In 1948 under a UN plan, Palestine was equally divided between Jewish and Arabs with Jerusalem to be shared between the two. This plan was rejected by Israel’s Arab neighbors and the day following the Jewish declaration of independence they invaded the Jewish state. Portugal provided money and weapons to Israel, but most importantly was the 3 regiments of Portuguese Jewish army veteran volunteers and supplies that the Portuguese Navy transported to Israel. In addition, another 5,000 Portuguese-Jews also travelled to Israel to support the Jewish people in their fight for a Jewish homeland. Israel defeated the Arab invaders and was able to expand by taking 2/3 of the Palestinian lands originally outlined in the UN plan as well as the entire city of Jerusalem. Portuguese recognition of the State of Israel as well as military and financial support provided the foundation of the current Israeli-Portuguese relationship.
Meanwhile while both the French and Dutch fought against independence movements the US granted Philippines its independence in 1946. The British too moved towards independence for many of its colonies, foremost amongst the territories becoming independent was British India the crown jewel of British Empire which was dismantled into four separate countries (India, Pakistan, Burma and Sri Lanka).
Following the Japanese unconditional surrender all Japanese soldiers were disarmed, and its overseas possessions either granted independence or returned to its rightful owner including all of its pre-war conquest and annexations. Manchuria was returned to China and Korea became independent. Japan also lost the Japanese Kurils and south Sakhalin Island to the Soviet Union.[1] Hundreds of thousands of Japanese were forced to relocate to the Japanese main islands. As punishment for its war actions and to prevent Japan from becoming a military threat again, Japan was de-industrialized with the goal of reducing Japanese standard of living to 1930 and 1934 level.
From 1946 to 1948 the Communist and Nationalist forces fought each other at a great cost to personnel and civilians. At end of 1948 the communists launched the Pingjin Campaign in Northern China and by the end of the year they had defeated the Nationalist forces and were in control over all of Northern China by January 1949. In the fighting, the Nationalist forces lost over 1.5 million soldiers many of them veterans of the Japanese Chinese war. With the main part of its army lost the Nationalist government withdrew south of the Yangtze River.
In April 1949, the communist forces crossed the Yangtze River and the Nationalist forces retreated further south establishing their provisional capital in Canton. The communists continued their southward advance and in November the Nationalist forces and 2 million civilians north of the Pearl River crossed the Taiwan Strait and retreated to Taiwan. The remaining Nationalist forces south of the Pearl River and 500,000 civilians retreated to the island of Hainan. On 1 October 1949 Mao proclaimed the People Republic of China with its capital in Beijing.
Following the surrender of Japan, Portuguese forces returned to Macau and reestablished Portuguese sovereignty over the territory. Portugal also re-occupied the Chinese islands of Lapa, Dom Joao and Montanha (Wanzai, Small and Large Hengqin). Nationalist China objected to the Portuguese occupation and demanded Portugal withdraw its troops. The new Portuguese Ambassador João de Barros Ferreira da Fonseca offered the Nationalist Chinese government a compromise, Portugal would withdraw from the island of Lapa but continue its presence on the islands of Dom Joao and Montanha. The status of the two islands would be differed to a later date in return Portugal committed to provide the Nationalist forces who were locked into a civil war with Communists with weapons and ammunition. From 1945 to 1948 Portugal provide millions of dollars in military support to the Nationalists. In 1948 the sovereignty of the islands was transferred to Macau in return Portugal cancelled all Chinese debts owed to Portugal while Portuguese would continue its support to the Nationalist fight against the communist rebels. In 1949 the communists won the Chinese Civil War and the Chinese Nationalists forces withdrew to the islands of Hainan and Taiwan. Following the fall of mainland China to the communists, Portugal worked with the UK to guarantee the safety of both Macau and Honk Kong. Troop strengths and Naval presence were strengthened but other than that no other action was taken. At end of 1949 Portugal did not have diplomatic relationship with Communist China and re-established relationship with Nationalist China who had moved their capital to the island of Taiwan.
Macau and China 1948
Original Macau (green),
Territory occupied 1938 – 1947 (Red),
Territory gained 1938 (olive green)
In 1946, the situation in British India became very dangerous as the independence movement gained ground and civil action escalated. Meanwhile communists continued their attack on the British as well as Indian Nationalists figures.[3] On 18 February 1946, the Indian Royal Navy mutinied in Bombay. Indian Communists stole aboard the HMIS Akbar docked at the Bombay harbor and set explosives in the ammunition storage. The explosion ripped apart the ship as well as 12 other ships in the harbor and the resulting fire damaged almost half the harbor. Casualties were estimated over 5,000 with three times that number injured. Indian Communists were blamed and both Nationalists Indians and British targeted the communists with renewed vigor.[4]
On 4 April 1947, communists launched an attack on the Indian Congress while Prime Minister Nehru and Deputy Prime Minister Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel as well as most of the India’s Congress members were in attendance. All the guards and several members of Congress were killed in the attack. When the Indian army attempted to storm the congress, the communists blew themselves up as well as detonated the bombs they had planted in building.[5] Almost all Indian politicians died in blast and over next several days communist integrated into the army throughout the country revolted against the Indian National government. While majority of the communist members in the military were defeated several units especially in the Indus valley were taken over by communists and they began battling Nationalist forces.
On 5 June 1947 Pakistan took advantage of the Indian Civil war and attacked India in an attempt to capture parts of Bengal and Kashmir. By 1949 when a cease fire was negotiated India had lost half of the state of Bengal and entire state of Kashmir.
On 2 July 1947, Jayachamarajendra Wadiyar, ruler of Princely State of Mysore survived a communist assassination. DGS agents working in Mysore capital convinced him that he should follow Hyderabad State’s example and declare Mysore Independent.[6]
In October 1948 DGS began providing support and weapons to Pratap Singh Rao Gaekwad, ruler of princely state of Baroda in its attack on communists and other princely states as it attempted to unify Baroda’s various areas. By 1949, the Kingdom of Baroda forces had united the princely states three major areas into a single area of control including control of several major ports in Gujarat Western India. They continued their attacks into the Kathiawar peninsula as well as battling communists and several princely state holdouts to the east and south.
On 30 January 1848 Gandhi was assassinated by Hindu extremists. The Indian government tried to pin the murder on the communists but failed. On 5 March 1948 General Kodandera Madappa Cariappa, leader of Indian army proclaimed himself as President of India and declared Marshall Law.
On 15 November 1948 Bombay fell to Indian communist forces led by Rashtriya Mazdoor Mill Sangh. Indian forces were forced to withdraw north leaving a power vacuum in Western India. On 5 March 1949 Rashtriya Mazdoor Mill Sangh and several of his top deputies were killed by rival communists in a power struggle splintering the communists in Western India. Following the fall of Bombay, the only independent Indian forces left in Western India were those under the command of General Cowasji Jehangir who by March 1949 had assembled a force of 20,000 soldiers around Pune. He also opposed President Cariappa and supported a democratic India. In October, he signed several agreements with the Portuguese government in Goa, the Nizam Osman Ali Khan of Hyderabad and Jaya Chamarajendra Wadiyar of Mysore. All three countries pledged to support General Jehangir with money and weapons.[7]
On 15 June 1949 communists led by V. S. Achuthanandan overthrew Travancore’s government executing its king, Chithira Thirunal Balarama Varma. Over the next few years Travancore would become the source of many communist attacks in Madras and Malabar.
At end of 1949 the Indian army was locked in battle with communist forces along the Indus River basin. It was also battling separatist forces in Northern India and in central India against Hyderabad. The defeat to Pakistan and the loss of Bombay to the communists was a major blow to the Indian government of President Cariappa and many people complained and were unhappy with the government. President Cariappa responded by banning demonstrations and had opposition leaders arrested.
From 1949, onward the number of DGS agents in India surpassed the number in Portuguese India as Portugal attempted to influence the Indian Civil war and various factions in a way that did not prejudice or hurt Portuguese India.
East Indies – Dutch East IndiesDuring the Japanese occupation of the Dutch East Indies, Indonesian forces under Sukarno collaborated with Japanese forces. When Japan surrendered, the Indonesian forces seized the Japanese weapons and declared the Independence of Indonesia encompassing all of the Dutch East Indies as well claiming Portuguese East Indies and British territory on Borneo.
In 1946, the Dutch government sent forces to the East Indies in an attempt to regain control but instead the forces found themselves fighting the Indonesia rebels for control. From 1946 to 1947 both Australia and British provided troops while US and Portugal provided support to the Dutch as it battled the Indonesian rebels. In 1947, the Dutch doubled the number of troops to 60,000 but by then it was too late and too little. Large part of the Dutch east Indies was in the hands of the rebels. Rebels confident in their victory attacked Portuguese in Sumbawa and the British in Borneo.
In 1948 Indonesia leaders and forces were attacked in island of Java by communist forces. Sukarno and several other senior leaders were captured and executed. By end of 1948 Indonesia Nationalist forces had recaptured most of the land from the communists and also reduced the amount of land the Dutch control on the island to just the capital Jakarta and the surrounding territory. In January 1949 Indonesia Nationalist forces and government came under the control of General Sutomo. The Nationalists controlled most of the island of Java, about half the island of Borneo and the southern part of the island of Sumatra.
On the island of Sumatra, the Indonesia Nationalist forces were also battling the Riau forces. To the north in Aceh the rebel forces there decide to stay neutral and wait to see the result of independence struggle elsewhere. On island of Bali Colonel Gusti Ngurah Rai who had survived near death experience following several battles with the Dutch and assassination attempt by Nationalists forces loyal to Sutomo united the island and declared Bali independence.
At the end of war, the Portuguese approached the Dutch about Portuguese occupied Dutch East Indies and Portuguese claims to several of the occupied islands. The Dutch had refused to negotiate with Portugal and demanded that it withdraw all forces to Portuguese Timor but lacked the ability to force the issue. In 1946 Portugal agreed to provide the Dutch with assistance and agreed to hold its occupied territory so rebel forces would not seize it. In 1947, the Dutch forces in the Dutch East Indies were increased again and Portugal provided the Dutch with naval, air support as well as sold them weapons. Portugal continued to support the Dutch and blocked Indonesia Nationalists diplomatically from gaining UN recognition.
On 22 March 1947, Portuguese forces came under fire from Indonesia guerillas for first time. Attacks on the island of Sumbawa killed 22 Portuguese soldiers in three separate attacks and Portugal responded with re-enforcements and large-scale sweeps of the island. In several clashes over 126 suspected guerrillas were killed. Portuguese military intelligence and DGS responded by arresting and interrogating known supporters of the Indonesia independence movement. Following the attacks, the Portuguese navy and air force increased their patrols of waters around the Portuguese controlled islands. In 1948 Dutch forces abandoned Lombok and Indonesian forces had a secure base close to Sumbawa to launch their attacks. DGS sweeps and interrogations generated few leads. Also, worrying to the Portuguese and DGS was the direction the war was taking as the Dutch forces were being losing the ground to rebels on more and more islands.
On 15 August 1947 abandoning all hope that the Dutch would prevail against the Indonesian rebels the DGS began a two-pronged strategy to deal with the growing independence movement of Sukarno. First it started to try to pinpoint Indonesia’s independence leader Sukarno and other senior members of the Indonesia Rebels location and secondly it established contact with rival organizations that were not only fighting the Dutch but also the Indonesian Nationalists rebels led by Sukarno.[8] The DGS started providing weapons where required, training but mostly support and where possible nudged the different movements towards independence:[9]
On 20 July 1948, the Indonesia rebels attempted to invade Sumbawa. The Indonesians launched hundreds of fishing boats filled with fighters. The Java Sea battle pitted the Portuguese navy against hundreds of fishing boats crammed with thousands of Indonesians rebels. Portuguese ships and planes destroyed many of ships and the waters were filled with desperate men and most perished by drowning or to sharks. Still thousands of rebels landed on the western shore of Sumbawa where Portuguese army and marines were waiting. The rebels fought for over six hours trying to hold on to their small beachheads but in the end the Portuguese forces supported by air force were too strong, and the last rebels surrendered in late afternoon. Portuguese casualties were listed at 79 killed and 456 wounded. The true number of Indonesia rebels killed at sea was not known but 1,245 rebels were captured, and 2,950 bodies were recovered from the beaches and the sea.
On 22nd of August, the Portuguese forces launched an amphibious attack on the Indonesian forces in Lombok. For next two months Portuguese pushed the Indonesian forces steadily west taking the city of Mataram on 21st of October. Indonesia forces were driven back to the Volcano Mount Rinjani. In November 1948, the Portuguese brought fresh troops to the island. The arrival of the Angolan 5th division allowed the Portuguese to launch a two-prong attack on the rebels. On 22 January 1949, the last of the rebels surrendered. The Portuguese military began planning for the invasion of the island of Bali, but on 3rd of February Hindu separatists seized the island of Bali. For the next six months, Portuguese forces waited while political and military events unfolded in Indonesia. On 1 October 1949, a cease fire went into effect.
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[1] The Soviets had moved troops onto the Japanese Kurils and south Sakhalin following Japanese surrender and annexed the territories. The Americans had not protested the Soviet move.
[2] Till that moment the largest and deadliest attack was the Bombay harbor explosion.
[3] The Indian Communists congress in 1942 rejected civil disobedience and advocated an armed struggle against all imperialistic forces.
[4] This was the first action that was performed by Portuguese agents within the Communist and Independent movements in order to focus British and Nationalist forces on the Communist threat in the subcontinent.
[5] Portuguese DGS became aware of plot in mid-March following the approval of the Indian Independence Act by British parliament and the splitting of British India into India and Pakistan. But the information was only passed to the British on 4th of April when it was too late to intercept them. Inquiries by British Intelligence failed to uncover this fact and the British took Portuguese at their word that they had only become aware of the plot the night before and informed them ASAP.
[6] Jayachamarajendra Wadiyar was prepared to sign the Indian ascendency act which would have brought Mysore into Indian union.
[7] Portuguese weapons, as well as British, American and French weapons were unloaded in Portuguese and Madras ports and transported to the Indian forces under General Jehangir command as well as both Mysore and Hyderabad forces.
[8] Sukarno wanted to create a unified country of all the Dutch East Indies plus several neighboring islands. Many people in the outlying islands believed that Dutch oversight and domination would be replaced by Jakarta’s oversight and sought to establish their own independent country.
[9] While Portuguese where the first to make contact with these groups but were not the only ones that supported them. Communist states as well as the US, UK and Australia all supported these movements at different stages as it became clear that Dutch control was numbered, and that the Nationalist lacked the strength to gain control of all the Dutch East Indies.
[10] Teungku Daud Beureueh and his religious Ulama party controlled the northern part of the island
[11] Of the independence movements, the Northern Moluccas were the least organized.
[12] DGS agents secretly worked with both communists and the nationalists. It provided information on Sukarno position to the communists and then provided the nationalists the location of communists (after the execution of Sukarno) but were not responsible or had any involvement in either the communist insurrection or Republican counterattack.
In this post I wanted to elaborate on the several sections; China - we have two major changes. National China has been able maintain Hainan Island, while the Portuguese were able to leverage support for Nationalist China to its ability to double Macau size. What happens in the 1950s we will have to see. In Asia we have two former colonies British India and Dutch East Indies collapsing into civil wars. These civil wars actually continued well into 1950s .
Questions / Comments?
In two weeks on September 15 we will return with part 3 of the Post War world section (As we start discussing two very important Portuguese allies and friends who together with the Federation would be dubbled the "Three Amigos" by American press in the 1970s.)
1940 – 1949 (cont.)
The Post War Years 1945 – 1949 (cont.)
World (2 of 3)
The Post War Years 1945 – 1949 (cont.)
World (2 of 3)
Post War – Middle East
The Middle East saw the first colonies and protectorates gaining independence with the British granting independence to Palestine and Transjordan while the French granted independence to Syria and Lebanon. From 1946 to 1948 thousands of Jews (mostly Holocaust survivors) traveled to British Palestine, with the goal of establishing a Jewish homeland. The British opposed their immigration on fears it would upset the Arabs most of whom were Muslim. By 1947 the arrival of thousands of Jews in Palestine had caused tensions between Jews and Arabs to explode and the British were unable to maintain peace. In 1948 under a UN plan, Palestine was equally divided between Jewish and Arabs with Jerusalem to be shared between the two. This plan was rejected by Israel’s Arab neighbors and the day following the Jewish declaration of independence they invaded the Jewish state. Portugal provided money and weapons to Israel, but most importantly was the 3 regiments of Portuguese Jewish army veteran volunteers and supplies that the Portuguese Navy transported to Israel. In addition, another 5,000 Portuguese-Jews also travelled to Israel to support the Jewish people in their fight for a Jewish homeland. Israel defeated the Arab invaders and was able to expand by taking 2/3 of the Palestinian lands originally outlined in the UN plan as well as the entire city of Jerusalem. Portuguese recognition of the State of Israel as well as military and financial support provided the foundation of the current Israeli-Portuguese relationship.
Asia
While WW2 had ended war continued to plague Asia following. The continent was being ripped apart by two major civil wars (China and India) meanwhile nationalist forces in French Indochina and the Dutch East Indies fought the returning Europeans who attempted to re-assert their control. Meanwhile while both the French and Dutch fought against independence movements the US granted Philippines its independence in 1946. The British too moved towards independence for many of its colonies, foremost amongst the territories becoming independent was British India the crown jewel of British Empire which was dismantled into four separate countries (India, Pakistan, Burma and Sri Lanka).
Following the Japanese unconditional surrender all Japanese soldiers were disarmed, and its overseas possessions either granted independence or returned to its rightful owner including all of its pre-war conquest and annexations. Manchuria was returned to China and Korea became independent. Japan also lost the Japanese Kurils and south Sakhalin Island to the Soviet Union.[1] Hundreds of thousands of Japanese were forced to relocate to the Japanese main islands. As punishment for its war actions and to prevent Japan from becoming a military threat again, Japan was de-industrialized with the goal of reducing Japanese standard of living to 1930 and 1934 level.
China
In 1945 with Japan defeated Nationalist Forces and Communist forces once again resumed their long war for dominance and control of China. Before the war, the communists were on the verge of collapse and had retreated deep into central China to regroup, by wars end they were almost evenly matched. The advantage the Communists had over the Nationalist forces was that communist forces were under one unified command, meanwhile the Nationalist forces were under several commands and coordination between the Nationalist forces was problematic at best.From 1946 to 1948 the Communist and Nationalist forces fought each other at a great cost to personnel and civilians. At end of 1948 the communists launched the Pingjin Campaign in Northern China and by the end of the year they had defeated the Nationalist forces and were in control over all of Northern China by January 1949. In the fighting, the Nationalist forces lost over 1.5 million soldiers many of them veterans of the Japanese Chinese war. With the main part of its army lost the Nationalist government withdrew south of the Yangtze River.
In April 1949, the communist forces crossed the Yangtze River and the Nationalist forces retreated further south establishing their provisional capital in Canton. The communists continued their southward advance and in November the Nationalist forces and 2 million civilians north of the Pearl River crossed the Taiwan Strait and retreated to Taiwan. The remaining Nationalist forces south of the Pearl River and 500,000 civilians retreated to the island of Hainan. On 1 October 1949 Mao proclaimed the People Republic of China with its capital in Beijing.
China – Portugal Relationship
Following the surrender of Japan, Portuguese forces returned to Macau and reestablished Portuguese sovereignty over the territory. Portugal also re-occupied the Chinese islands of Lapa, Dom Joao and Montanha (Wanzai, Small and Large Hengqin). Nationalist China objected to the Portuguese occupation and demanded Portugal withdraw its troops. The new Portuguese Ambassador João de Barros Ferreira da Fonseca offered the Nationalist Chinese government a compromise, Portugal would withdraw from the island of Lapa but continue its presence on the islands of Dom Joao and Montanha. The status of the two islands would be differed to a later date in return Portugal committed to provide the Nationalist forces who were locked into a civil war with Communists with weapons and ammunition. From 1945 to 1948 Portugal provide millions of dollars in military support to the Nationalists. In 1948 the sovereignty of the islands was transferred to Macau in return Portugal cancelled all Chinese debts owed to Portugal while Portuguese would continue its support to the Nationalist fight against the communist rebels. In 1949 the communists won the Chinese Civil War and the Chinese Nationalists forces withdrew to the islands of Hainan and Taiwan. Following the fall of mainland China to the communists, Portugal worked with the UK to guarantee the safety of both Macau and Honk Kong. Troop strengths and Naval presence were strengthened but other than that no other action was taken. At end of 1949 Portugal did not have diplomatic relationship with Communist China and re-established relationship with Nationalist China who had moved their capital to the island of Taiwan.
Macau and China 1948
Original Macau (green),
Territory occupied 1938 – 1947 (Red),
Territory gained 1938 (olive green)
India
In 1946, Indian leaders such as Gandhi led civil disobedience movements against those in power (British and Nationalist leaders) as well as against the continued attacks against civilians by communists and anarchists.[2] The non-violent independent movement and Indian resistance to British Rule finally forced the British to adhere to Indian demands and in March 1947 the British Parliament passed the Indian Independence Act granting Independence to Pakistan and India.In 1946, the situation in British India became very dangerous as the independence movement gained ground and civil action escalated. Meanwhile communists continued their attack on the British as well as Indian Nationalists figures.[3] On 18 February 1946, the Indian Royal Navy mutinied in Bombay. Indian Communists stole aboard the HMIS Akbar docked at the Bombay harbor and set explosives in the ammunition storage. The explosion ripped apart the ship as well as 12 other ships in the harbor and the resulting fire damaged almost half the harbor. Casualties were estimated over 5,000 with three times that number injured. Indian Communists were blamed and both Nationalists Indians and British targeted the communists with renewed vigor.[4]
On 4 April 1947, communists launched an attack on the Indian Congress while Prime Minister Nehru and Deputy Prime Minister Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel as well as most of the India’s Congress members were in attendance. All the guards and several members of Congress were killed in the attack. When the Indian army attempted to storm the congress, the communists blew themselves up as well as detonated the bombs they had planted in building.[5] Almost all Indian politicians died in blast and over next several days communist integrated into the army throughout the country revolted against the Indian National government. While majority of the communist members in the military were defeated several units especially in the Indus valley were taken over by communists and they began battling Nationalist forces.
On 5 June 1947 Pakistan took advantage of the Indian Civil war and attacked India in an attempt to capture parts of Bengal and Kashmir. By 1949 when a cease fire was negotiated India had lost half of the state of Bengal and entire state of Kashmir.
On 2 July 1947, Jayachamarajendra Wadiyar, ruler of Princely State of Mysore survived a communist assassination. DGS agents working in Mysore capital convinced him that he should follow Hyderabad State’s example and declare Mysore Independent.[6]
In October 1948 DGS began providing support and weapons to Pratap Singh Rao Gaekwad, ruler of princely state of Baroda in its attack on communists and other princely states as it attempted to unify Baroda’s various areas. By 1949, the Kingdom of Baroda forces had united the princely states three major areas into a single area of control including control of several major ports in Gujarat Western India. They continued their attacks into the Kathiawar peninsula as well as battling communists and several princely state holdouts to the east and south.
On 30 January 1848 Gandhi was assassinated by Hindu extremists. The Indian government tried to pin the murder on the communists but failed. On 5 March 1948 General Kodandera Madappa Cariappa, leader of Indian army proclaimed himself as President of India and declared Marshall Law.
On 15 November 1948 Bombay fell to Indian communist forces led by Rashtriya Mazdoor Mill Sangh. Indian forces were forced to withdraw north leaving a power vacuum in Western India. On 5 March 1949 Rashtriya Mazdoor Mill Sangh and several of his top deputies were killed by rival communists in a power struggle splintering the communists in Western India. Following the fall of Bombay, the only independent Indian forces left in Western India were those under the command of General Cowasji Jehangir who by March 1949 had assembled a force of 20,000 soldiers around Pune. He also opposed President Cariappa and supported a democratic India. In October, he signed several agreements with the Portuguese government in Goa, the Nizam Osman Ali Khan of Hyderabad and Jaya Chamarajendra Wadiyar of Mysore. All three countries pledged to support General Jehangir with money and weapons.[7]
On 15 June 1949 communists led by V. S. Achuthanandan overthrew Travancore’s government executing its king, Chithira Thirunal Balarama Varma. Over the next few years Travancore would become the source of many communist attacks in Madras and Malabar.
At end of 1949 the Indian army was locked in battle with communist forces along the Indus River basin. It was also battling separatist forces in Northern India and in central India against Hyderabad. The defeat to Pakistan and the loss of Bombay to the communists was a major blow to the Indian government of President Cariappa and many people complained and were unhappy with the government. President Cariappa responded by banning demonstrations and had opposition leaders arrested.
From 1949, onward the number of DGS agents in India surpassed the number in Portuguese India as Portugal attempted to influence the Indian Civil war and various factions in a way that did not prejudice or hurt Portuguese India.
East Indies – Dutch East Indies
In 1946, the Dutch government sent forces to the East Indies in an attempt to regain control but instead the forces found themselves fighting the Indonesia rebels for control. From 1946 to 1947 both Australia and British provided troops while US and Portugal provided support to the Dutch as it battled the Indonesian rebels. In 1947, the Dutch doubled the number of troops to 60,000 but by then it was too late and too little. Large part of the Dutch east Indies was in the hands of the rebels. Rebels confident in their victory attacked Portuguese in Sumbawa and the British in Borneo.
In 1948 Indonesia leaders and forces were attacked in island of Java by communist forces. Sukarno and several other senior leaders were captured and executed. By end of 1948 Indonesia Nationalist forces had recaptured most of the land from the communists and also reduced the amount of land the Dutch control on the island to just the capital Jakarta and the surrounding territory. In January 1949 Indonesia Nationalist forces and government came under the control of General Sutomo. The Nationalists controlled most of the island of Java, about half the island of Borneo and the southern part of the island of Sumatra.
On the island of Sumatra, the Indonesia Nationalist forces were also battling the Riau forces. To the north in Aceh the rebel forces there decide to stay neutral and wait to see the result of independence struggle elsewhere. On island of Bali Colonel Gusti Ngurah Rai who had survived near death experience following several battles with the Dutch and assassination attempt by Nationalists forces loyal to Sutomo united the island and declared Bali independence.
At the end of war, the Portuguese approached the Dutch about Portuguese occupied Dutch East Indies and Portuguese claims to several of the occupied islands. The Dutch had refused to negotiate with Portugal and demanded that it withdraw all forces to Portuguese Timor but lacked the ability to force the issue. In 1946 Portugal agreed to provide the Dutch with assistance and agreed to hold its occupied territory so rebel forces would not seize it. In 1947, the Dutch forces in the Dutch East Indies were increased again and Portugal provided the Dutch with naval, air support as well as sold them weapons. Portugal continued to support the Dutch and blocked Indonesia Nationalists diplomatically from gaining UN recognition.
East Indies – Portuguese East Indies
The outbreak of the Indonesia War of Independence in 1945 caught the Portuguese government and the DGS by surprise. The Portuguese thinking at end of WWII was that they would have a few years to mold and “Lusophonize” the recently occupied Dutch East Indies. The original thinking was that Portugal would return all islands back to the Dutch with the exception Western Timor, Flores and the smaller islands of (Roti, Alor and Wetar). The outbreak of Independence War in the Indies meant that instead the Portuguese were forced to pacify all Portuguese occupied islands and where possible provide the Dutch with assistance.On 22 March 1947, Portuguese forces came under fire from Indonesia guerillas for first time. Attacks on the island of Sumbawa killed 22 Portuguese soldiers in three separate attacks and Portugal responded with re-enforcements and large-scale sweeps of the island. In several clashes over 126 suspected guerrillas were killed. Portuguese military intelligence and DGS responded by arresting and interrogating known supporters of the Indonesia independence movement. Following the attacks, the Portuguese navy and air force increased their patrols of waters around the Portuguese controlled islands. In 1948 Dutch forces abandoned Lombok and Indonesian forces had a secure base close to Sumbawa to launch their attacks. DGS sweeps and interrogations generated few leads. Also, worrying to the Portuguese and DGS was the direction the war was taking as the Dutch forces were being losing the ground to rebels on more and more islands.
On 15 August 1947 abandoning all hope that the Dutch would prevail against the Indonesian rebels the DGS began a two-pronged strategy to deal with the growing independence movement of Sukarno. First it started to try to pinpoint Indonesia’s independence leader Sukarno and other senior members of the Indonesia Rebels location and secondly it established contact with rival organizations that were not only fighting the Dutch but also the Indonesian Nationalists rebels led by Sukarno.[8] The DGS started providing weapons where required, training but mostly support and where possible nudged the different movements towards independence:[9]
- On the island of Sulawesi – the northern part of the island Minahasa Nationalist sought to break free of not only Dutch but also Jakarta’s control;
- On island of Sumatra – In the center the people of Riau (Malaysian) demanded independence from both Dutch and Jakarta. In the north, the people of Aceh maintained their independence from the Dutch and supported an independent Indonesia;[10]
- South Moluccas (Seram, Ambon, and Buru) – locals on these islands were fighting the Dutch forces and wanted to declare an independent state;
- Northern Moluccas (Tindore, Sula and Halmahera) – Christians which comprised over 50% of population felt uneasiness of being controlled by Muslims;[11]
- Island of Bali – Hindu’s feared that their rights and freedoms would not be respected in a Muslim majority country;
On 20 July 1948, the Indonesia rebels attempted to invade Sumbawa. The Indonesians launched hundreds of fishing boats filled with fighters. The Java Sea battle pitted the Portuguese navy against hundreds of fishing boats crammed with thousands of Indonesians rebels. Portuguese ships and planes destroyed many of ships and the waters were filled with desperate men and most perished by drowning or to sharks. Still thousands of rebels landed on the western shore of Sumbawa where Portuguese army and marines were waiting. The rebels fought for over six hours trying to hold on to their small beachheads but in the end the Portuguese forces supported by air force were too strong, and the last rebels surrendered in late afternoon. Portuguese casualties were listed at 79 killed and 456 wounded. The true number of Indonesia rebels killed at sea was not known but 1,245 rebels were captured, and 2,950 bodies were recovered from the beaches and the sea.
On 22nd of August, the Portuguese forces launched an amphibious attack on the Indonesian forces in Lombok. For next two months Portuguese pushed the Indonesian forces steadily west taking the city of Mataram on 21st of October. Indonesia forces were driven back to the Volcano Mount Rinjani. In November 1948, the Portuguese brought fresh troops to the island. The arrival of the Angolan 5th division allowed the Portuguese to launch a two-prong attack on the rebels. On 22 January 1949, the last of the rebels surrendered. The Portuguese military began planning for the invasion of the island of Bali, but on 3rd of February Hindu separatists seized the island of Bali. For the next six months, Portuguese forces waited while political and military events unfolded in Indonesia. On 1 October 1949, a cease fire went into effect.
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[1] The Soviets had moved troops onto the Japanese Kurils and south Sakhalin following Japanese surrender and annexed the territories. The Americans had not protested the Soviet move.
[2] Till that moment the largest and deadliest attack was the Bombay harbor explosion.
[3] The Indian Communists congress in 1942 rejected civil disobedience and advocated an armed struggle against all imperialistic forces.
[4] This was the first action that was performed by Portuguese agents within the Communist and Independent movements in order to focus British and Nationalist forces on the Communist threat in the subcontinent.
[5] Portuguese DGS became aware of plot in mid-March following the approval of the Indian Independence Act by British parliament and the splitting of British India into India and Pakistan. But the information was only passed to the British on 4th of April when it was too late to intercept them. Inquiries by British Intelligence failed to uncover this fact and the British took Portuguese at their word that they had only become aware of the plot the night before and informed them ASAP.
[6] Jayachamarajendra Wadiyar was prepared to sign the Indian ascendency act which would have brought Mysore into Indian union.
[7] Portuguese weapons, as well as British, American and French weapons were unloaded in Portuguese and Madras ports and transported to the Indian forces under General Jehangir command as well as both Mysore and Hyderabad forces.
[8] Sukarno wanted to create a unified country of all the Dutch East Indies plus several neighboring islands. Many people in the outlying islands believed that Dutch oversight and domination would be replaced by Jakarta’s oversight and sought to establish their own independent country.
[9] While Portuguese where the first to make contact with these groups but were not the only ones that supported them. Communist states as well as the US, UK and Australia all supported these movements at different stages as it became clear that Dutch control was numbered, and that the Nationalist lacked the strength to gain control of all the Dutch East Indies.
[10] Teungku Daud Beureueh and his religious Ulama party controlled the northern part of the island
[11] Of the independence movements, the Northern Moluccas were the least organized.
[12] DGS agents secretly worked with both communists and the nationalists. It provided information on Sukarno position to the communists and then provided the nationalists the location of communists (after the execution of Sukarno) but were not responsible or had any involvement in either the communist insurrection or Republican counterattack.
In this post I wanted to elaborate on the several sections; China - we have two major changes. National China has been able maintain Hainan Island, while the Portuguese were able to leverage support for Nationalist China to its ability to double Macau size. What happens in the 1950s we will have to see. In Asia we have two former colonies British India and Dutch East Indies collapsing into civil wars. These civil wars actually continued well into 1950s .
Questions / Comments?
In two weeks on September 15 we will return with part 3 of the Post War world section (As we start discussing two very important Portuguese allies and friends who together with the Federation would be dubbled the "Three Amigos" by American press in the 1970s.)
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TL;DR: Isreal is stronk, OTL events still occurred in China, Japan is really weakened, Portugal was able to secure more islands for Macau, Portuguese India is still holding despite the rather brutal Indian Civil War, Indonesia declares independence and Portugal really wants to keep their East Indies colonies in their belt.
Mostly because of the Cold War. The US wanted Japanese factories to help support american troops in the Vietnam and Korean wars. Also, keeping Japan happy would help maintain the balance against communism in the Pacific. As long as a strong Soviet Union existed in Asia, America needed all the allies it could get.
I can see millions of Indian refugees pouring into tiny Goa in an attempt to escape the encroaching chaos around them. Portugal will try its best to care for them all, but I foresee huge slum camps in the outskirts of Goa to be inevitable.
Lol, makes more sense. Yeah, I can see America back pedaling on that policy pronto with Red China right next door.
Lusitania
Donor
Yes the surprise in Israel case was Portugal's support, who by 1948 when Israel declares its independence has over 500,000 Jews living in country. As covered in the 1930s over 200,000 Jews migrated to Portugal prior to war and another 100,000 Jewish refugees settled in country during the war. Greatly aiding the country in its modernization and industrialization. Following the war the Portuguese government authorized the Portuguese Jewish Association to bring to Portugal Jewish refugees especially those affected by holocausts in total from 1945-1948 when emigration to Israel was possible over 200,000 Jews were brought to Portugal. When Portugal declared war against Axis thousands of Jews volunteered to join the Portuguese armed forces even those not portuguese citizens. So over 10,000 fully trained Portuguese-Jews (supplied by Portuguese) helped tilt the war in two major ways. As indicated all of Jerusalem was captured and became Israel capital. The Israelis also performed better against Syria and captured additional territory with the Jordan river valley completely under Israeli control not just the west side as iOTL.
As for China there was nothing the Portuguese did that would of affected the outcome of the war. The only change was the fact that Communists were not strong enough at end to capture Hanoi island and the arrival of the American fleet prevented another attack. So we have a Nationalist China that will be a much larger presence in the world secondly the Portuguese ability to increase Macau size was seen in the worlds eyes as legit since it was the Nationalist Chinese government that signed the transfer of islands and re-affirmed Portuguese sovereignty over all of Macau. How this will play out in future with communist Chinese we will have to see.
Just like iOTL Japan and Germany as per the unconditional surrender were both to be de-industrialized to 1930s level. iOTL the soviets actually moved almost every factory from east Germany while in TL they were to receive 1/3 of its industrial capacity but in reality on received about 15% in compensation it received food, resources and other materials. The Iron Curtain Crises affected both the willingness and participation of the west. While in the east the emergence of communist China and start of the cold war stopped the American de-industrialization of Japan but its military industry was transformed to civilian production.
As for the brutal civil war, both regions were suffering greatly and in the beginning of the civil wars the Portuguese sent thousands of troops, ships and planes to reinforce its control over both colonies. The Portuguese had actually been investing considerably in its Indian colonies starting in late 1930s especially Goa where mining had doubled, industry was started so it was adamant in protecting them. As civil war continued the Portuguese would profit in several ways. Supporting several groups / countries with war materials, (Portuguese military industries were busier from 1946-1950 then during war) with the goal to use the war as way of maintaining control of its territory, this was the same situation for the French who greatly strengthened their troop levels in French India. While Dutch East Indies the Portuguese found themselves in the midst of war and took the approach of playing for time and believed that several smaller players would work to Portugal favor. There were two specific groups it viewed as most dangerous to the Portuguese presence: communists and Indonesia forces under Sukarno.
Overall it was a very challenging time and one that events beyond Portuguese control could bring the whole region down on the Portuguese. From a foreign policy perspective it also placed the Portuguese in the crosshairs of the US and made relations with British and commonwealth especially Australia complicated. For the Portuguese tried to not seem to be profiting from the conflict but to only be protecting themselves and supporting genuine countries or groups. Not always possible.
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It's great to see not only Portugal got back Ceuta, but also it got back the island of Flores (curse you Lopes de Lima) and the surrounding islands, plus a larger Macau. Viva Portugal!
Portugal can say whatever they want, but their armament industry must be making huge amounts of wealth from all these emerging wars in Asia (and Africa in the future). I'm happy for them, but I can see why the US might get annoyed.
And Israel is doing pretty well for itself. I'm glad that some nations have their back - especially during their chaotic birth years.
And Israel is doing pretty well for itself. I'm glad that some nations have their back - especially during their chaotic birth years.
Lusitania
Donor
As I had mentioned before that both Japan and Germany punishment at end of war they were to be de-industrialized to 1930 level and their war industries dismantled. In addition that industry, patents and knowhow was to be sent to Allies countries. In west this meant patents and expertise where sent to US and other countries. Soviet Union basically took everything not nailed down and even some of that back to USSR from East Germany. The Cold War stopped the process in its tracks on the west side. iTTL the Portuguese got 1.5 billion in repetitions which included several companies relocating part of their business to Portugal. The iron curtain crises was a blessing for Portugal for it focused the western world (more specifically US) with dangerous foe (communism) and Portugal was looked upon as nuisance instead of threat.
Both Germany and Japan close Soviet Union became important in the struggle against communism. Just as the communism threat had been temporary defeated in Europe a new threat in east appeared. Communist China, alarmed by communist growth (remember that both India and Indonesia have communist elements in them) the US sends its fleet to South China Sea earlier saving nationalists China hold on Hainan island. The next conflict is just around the corner in the East making armed resistance to communism a very important aspect of anti-communist strategy.
First part is correct with over 1 million people are carted for by Portugal in refugee camps but remember order and stability are mainstay of estado novo and government has vowed to eliminate shanty towns in all of country including colonies so it can hardly allow slums to exists. At end of war there will be either re-settlement elsewhere within the federation or back in to their homes outside federation.
For shanty towns, slums and poverty are breeding grounds for disease, resentment, anger and that is excellent recruiting grounds for those opposed to government be they communism or other. So the government was to have none of it. That meant even in areas of shanty towns Portuguese youth centers built to mold minds of kids from pre-schoolers, plus provide day care so parent could work. (Participation was mandatory) then schools (mandatory) so that next generation had opportunity and education their parents did not. Policing also present in heavy numbers.
To accomplish the elimination of shanty towns or slums means limiting migration, providing industry and economic opportunities in various provinces not only in major cities, but just as important investing in social housing.
PS when my dad emigrated to France in 1969 lived thousands of Portuguese he lived in shanty town for 6 months till he returned to Portugal (instead of returning to France though we emigrated to Canada). So shan’t towns were a problem that existed for in many countries, even rich ones).