After the October 6 Incident, and the current vegetable state of the Emperor, Japan was plunged into a time of great peril. The assault and near death of His Majesty triggered waves of protests, directed at both the military’s attempts to strong-arm the democratic and constitutional aspects of society, and against socialists whom continued to agitate against the Emperor’s position in the state, whilst the man was recuperating from his injuries and neurological trauma in the hospital.
Prime Minister Minobe successfully managed to get the Diet to pass the National Security Act in November 1915, aimed directly at suppressing ‘radicals whom are aligned against the Empire’—aimed directly at radical socialists and radical militarists whom were poised against constitutionalism. The nascent communist and socialist movements had yet to find themselves a party that managed to ‘hitch’ on with leftist-sympathetic peoples, and thus managed to avoid the brunt of the constitutional purge.
This act focused less on legitimate political organization, and more on societies and extra-political associations of radicals. This garnered leftist and militarist protests, but it was silenced as the Sakurakai used the near-death of the Emperor to castigate them for their carelessness. With the Emperor in a vegetative state and unable to execute the duties of state, the Prime Minister’s office began to work the machinations of the state in his favor—while none of his allies within the Sakurakai would tolerate him stripping powers from the Emperor, he did believe that by leveraging the Emperor’s position as one of the impartial statesman, the constitutional powers invested in the imperial holder could be utilized for the good of all Japan, rather than certain interests.
The Sakurakai’s leadership, consisting of Prime Minister Minobe, Saitou Makoto, and Hara Takashi, began to openly push for Japan’s economic consolidation in Northeast Asia, as opposed to outright invasion. Manchuria was largely under the control of the Xing’an Clique, a large coalition of anti-ROC forces, whom were sympathetic to Emperor Puyi and the Japanese cause. While Japan was not willing to allow the Qing to unify China, they began to slowly draw the Manchurian clique under their influence, hoping to leverage another item of power over the Chinese mainland. Prime Minister Minobe, while being staunchly opposed to militarism, was not foolish. China was a beast that, if left unified, would outpace Japan’s economy within a century.
In 1916, the Minobe ministry suffered a public relations issue as the Diet approved a few fiscal policies, including a small increase in tax across the Empire. This tax increase was stated as to ‘help develop exterior prefectures into full territories’—largely meaning that tax money was leaving Japan and heading to Korea and Formosa.
Nationalists demonstrated against the Minobe government’s use of funds to build up Korea and Formosa, fearing their own strains of nationalism would force Japan to leave. However, Minobe defended his tax increase, stating that if Japan was to create pan-Asian peace and unity, it would need to give attention to her colonies as well. An attempt by enemies of the Sakurakai to coordinate a motion of no-confidence was defeated narrowly. However, as time passed, Minobe found the economy beginning to sag as money didn’t circulate nearly as well as it did before—with the War in Europe still raging, and the specter of isolationism spreading across the West, Japan found herself at a crossroads—and with firm control of the state, Minobe guessed that Japan could ascend to power over the Pacific without a shot fired.
The militarists and nationalists disagreed—with the United States ensconced in the isolationist fever, with William Borah as their President now, why not start acting more aggressive and push the envelope of the Asian order and reshape it?
Minobe felt they were short-sighted—Japan was sandwiched between two sleeping giants. If she acted too firm in China, and antagonized America, she would be crushed between them.
In December 1916, the boiling point was reached in Russia. Inside the crumbling Russian Empire, there existed many factions, each with a different plan for things. The Mensheviks, lead by Julius Martov, Irakli Tsereteli and Leon Trotsky, were a faction of more moderate communists, whom wanted 'peace without annexations' and were a little lighter in approach than their bolshevik counterparts. However, this made them unpopular as most Russians by 1917 had accepted that they would have to give something up to Germany for peace.
The Bolsheviks, however, were far more radical in their pro-peace approaches--they wanted the complete devolution of power to the workers councils, and unconditional peace, even if it meant swallowing some less than acceptable terms. The Mensheviks and Bolsheviks agreed on the part of revolution, but not on the matters of peace.
Within the radical left, and a far less militant group on that, the Socialist Revolutionary group, were pro-democratic and amicable to reforming the system from inside. They were lead by men such as Alexander Kerensky and Viktor Chernov. Their ambitions were to win over the people in democracy, and use their mandate to push reforms through the Duma to enhance the standing of the Russian people--which would then mean more votes for them. They contrasted heavily to the Bolsheviks and Mensheviks, whom felt that revolution was the only solution.
The assassination of Vladimir Lenin on 18 October 1916 drastically changed the fate of the Russian state, according to many historians. The man whom had the ambition and political theoretical knowledge to unite the Russian left against the bourgeois, was shot and killed by anti-communists in Switzerland. The bullet, shot from a short distance, struck an artery, and lodged itself in his lung. He bled to death in minutes, and expired on the sidewalk of Zurich. With Lenin dead, Nikolai Bukharin and Joseph Stalin took lead in the Bolshevik party, from their respective exiles. Bukharin became the leader of the political apparatus, while Stalin became the leader of the press appratus--namely, the Pravda publication. They differed on some issues, but generally saw the same means to an end, even if a little more radical in theoretical approach than Lenin.
In an unrelated circumstance, Grigori Rasputin, the 'mad-monk' of Russia, and the major influence over the German Tsarina Alexandrina, was assassinated by nobles in an attempt to break the power of the mad monk over the state. Many conservative nobles felt that Rasputin's dark magic was bringing a spell over Russia that lead to her defeat in the War. With this bitterness, multiple attempts were made on his life through December 1916, but it came to a boiling point on 17 December, when he was accosted and shot by the nobility. His body was dumped in a river floe, and his possessions were burned in response.
13 days following the assassination of Rasputin, in an unrelated circumstance, a growing faction of people began to agitate for peace with Germany. While they had all supported the war when it began, the reversal of fortune, and the constant defeats on the front-line, in no small part due to the Tsar's interference thereat, drove many to be pro-peace. Taking to the streets, anti-government demonstrators flooded Petrograd that day, agitating against government rationing, and against the collapse of the basic functions of state in the face of the Tsar's incompetence. They demanded the Tsar's replacement, they demanded peace, and they demanded the return of security, justice and peace--what little existed in Russia to start with.
After two weeks of violent protests, and the incapability of the Russian military to deal with it, a large faction of people moved to submit an ultimatum to the Tsar. Lead by factions whom lead the zemstvo, and many factions from within the Duma, the ultimatum was presented to Tsar Nicholas II-- demanding his abdication to his daughter Tatiana (whom was chosen due to her more progressive and leadership-oriented outlook on life), and the Russian withdrawal from the war, plus the establishment of a Provisional Government pending elections in 1918.
Nicholas II accepted, and Grand Duchess Tatiana was named Empress of Russia three days later. The new Provisional Government was assembled from amongst leaders of the more moderate factions. Instead of establishing an immediate government, the Provisional Government was set up as a council of leaders. While Georgy Lvov took the position as the de facto head of the government, being the leader of the zemstvo; he was joined by Anton Denikin, Alexander Kerensky, Viktor Chernov, Grand Prince Mikhail (the former Tsar's brother), and, surprisingly, Joseph Stalin. Stalin's loyalties to the Bolsheviks was weak, particularly after the fall of Lenin, and the strengthening of the Mensheviks, whom were gaining heavy traction amongst the Russian peasants. Stalin was brought on to the Administrative Council as one of the representatives of the left, whom were the strongest factions in the post-Nicholas Russia. Denikin, Lvov and Mikhail represented the moderate to right-organizations, and Chernov, Kerensky and Stalin the left. After Trotsky criticized Stalin in a publication circulating through out Petrograd in January 1917, Stalin severed all ties to the Russian Social Democratic Labour Party, and struck out on his own, hoping to gain power from within the Russian Provisional Government.
The Pravda, thereafter, took a more alarmed note and began to speak for the Provisional Government's benefit; which influenced many people in Russia to take a brief wait, and consider the merits of a new, more progressive Imperial state--particularly under the new, young 19-year-old Empress.
However, this did not last. Admiral Alexander Kolchak and General Pyotr Wrangel were not friendly towards the new regime--and lead Siberia in a revolt against the new Empress' authority, declaring that the abdication of Nicholas II to her was illegal and invalid, and claimed that they represented the true Tsar, Nicholas II, or if Nicholas refused, Alexei. Nicholas II would never take up residence in the provisional "Russian Empire-in-Exile", as he would remain confined to the Winter Palace in Petrograd as a ward of the Provisional Government.
After Kolchak and Wrangel wrestled away control of the Far East from the Provisional Government, Trotsky and Bukharin set aside their ideological differences and announced an alliance against the Provisional Government, calling for a general uprising against it. The uprising seized large portions of the more European Russian areas--namely, Petrograd and Moscow. The Provisional Government and the Empress were forced to retreat from Petrograd, and fled far to the southeast, taking up position in Tsaritsyn, which became the new provisional capital for Russia until the end of hostilities. The Russian provisional government made quick peace with Germany, agreeing to a number of Berlin's demands, and resolving to focus their attentions on the war against the Kolchak-Wrangel government, and against the soviets to the northwest.
As Russia broke out into civil war, Japan’s attentions sharply drew northward, as the securities of the Orient now seemed so unsure. After the January 1917 revolution, the Japanese had begun to crowd out Russian economic interests in Manchuria, replacing them with their own. By the time the Civil War had begun, Japan had come to dominate Manchuria’s economy with their own railroads and factories, but to secure peace, they would need to act.
On the western shore of Lake Baikal, a legion of volunteers whom had been backing Russia and had been serving as garrisons on the Trans-Siberian Railroad, revolted against all leadership they had subjected themselves to. The Czechoslovak Legion established their own provisional state on the western shore of Lake Baikal, calling it the Revolutionary Government of the Federation of Czechs and Slovaks. While attacked frequently by the angry Siberian tsardom, the Czechoslovak state managed to dig their heels in, and stay together during the first few rough months.
Japan, interested in this concept, soon began to plot their own efforts in Northern Asia. Particularly as the Kolchak-Wrangel government seemed keen to keep Japan from doing anything in particular...
How so? I haven't noted any glaring inaccuracies here, and nobody else has - and let's face it, on this site, they'd have been pointed out by now if they existed.
