Uriels rather imaginative map on page 14 inspired me to do my own take – it struck me that the political situation (divided Spain and Russia, Commie Germany and an independent Rhinelands, etc.) didn’t seem stable enough to last through the 20th century…
So, my version. Things start to diverge in the wars for Latin American independence, although the butterflies take a while to really get going. Once the gold was found, it was wam, bam, filibuster you, Ma’m, for California.
Karl Marx still got into Socialist thinking, but butterflies were big enough by 1848 that he wrote different things from OTL, and he is considered one of three “founding fathers” (one of which OTL got rich on corn futures rather than spinning socialist theories) of modern Communism rather than the Big Dog. As a result, German socialism had a different development than OTL and was in a better position to seize opportunities when the time was right.
Which time being in *WWI, which although different enough from OTL still had Germany, Austria and Turkey on one side, and Britain, France and Russia on the other (Italy stayed out entirely). The US did not get involved, and it dragged on until revolution broke out all over Europe.
East Prussia is a right-wing Militant (read OTL *Fascist) dictatorship, and does not get along at all with the other “free” German government in the Rhinelands. The Spanish Republic was supported energetically by the Germans, the pro-monarch Loyalists (the Spanish Civil war was rather different from OTL, and dragged on till 1941) by the French and the Italians: in the end the British arm-twisted people into accepting an armistice, terrified that another round of war would lead to universal Socialist triumph (the more ideologically flexible Reds of this TL have had multiple successes, if nothing as extensive as OTLs USSR). Yugoslavia is having enough trouble with the Albanians.
The Brits as OTL made promises to the Arabs, and were better about keeping them (the leaders of the Saudi family being tied between four agitated Rashidi camels helped), although they still decided to court the Jewish Conspiracy by helping out the Zionists. Their failure to agree on the dispostion of Jerusalem and surrounding areas is providing _all_ sorts of headaches for the British governor in Palestine. The Pan-Turkic government in central Asia is facing about a dozen religious and ethnic challenges to its leadership, the economy is in poor shape, and the Siberian regime is trying to puppetize them while Red Russia sends help to local leftist groups.
As OTL, Japan got into a war with China (starting in 1935). There was no oil embargo, since the Japanese never invaded any European colonies, but the Japanese economy foundered by 1941 for lack of foreign exchange as war costs kept climbing. The army stubbornly kept fighting, but increasing leftist unrest and rioting back home led in 1943 to a “conservative” coup back home led by the Navy. Some army forces revolt and refuse to follow orders, and things are still fairly chaotic by early 1946, although a shaky armistice is in place in China and the civilian government (backed by the Navy and the Emperor) is at least in control in Japan proper. Sensing weakness, popular anti-Japanese revolts have broken out in Korea and some parts of Manchuria.
As OTL, a pasting received by the Republic at the hands of the Japanese army has been good news for the local communists, which in the confused situation in the west took over vast swathes of territory. As the republican government struggled to stamp out brush-fire revolts in other parts of the country, the Siberian military dictatorship sees an opportunity to squash Commies _and_ expand its influence in China, and sends in its own troops to “restore order”. The Germans loudly condemn this in the international press, the Chinese government tries to say thanks but no thanks, and the Russian People’s Republic sees a chance to reunify the nation…
Bruce