Osman Reborn; The Survival of Ottoman Democracy [An Ottoman TL set in the 1900s]

[Gokbay]

Probably Balkans but not necessarily in the form of Archduke being shot in Sarajevo. Especially since that Assasination itself was a very unlikely series of events.

Not that it was attempted the attempt itself. Where several people tried and failed to assassinate him. Then Gavrilo Princip went to buy a pastry, the Archduke's driver turned the wrong way and Princip just happened to come across the Archduke again and shot him. It was kind of absurd.

 

[Osman Aga]

How do you guys think a major war will start?

I think over Bosnia between Austria-Hungary and Serbia, over Macedonia (Kosovo Vilayet) between the Ottoman Empire and Bulgaria (Serbia), or Luxemburg between Germany and France.

One of these three regions.

 

[Nenshou Yuuki]

I think over Bosnia between Austria-Hungary and Serbia, over Macedonia (Kosovo Vilayet) between the Ottoman Empire and Bulgaria (Serbia), or Luxemburg between Germany and France.

One of these three regions.

Either that, or a colonial spat in Africa or Asia that spirals out of control.

 

[Osman Aga]

Probably Balkans but not necessarily in the form of Archduke being shot in Sarajevo. Especially since that Assasination itself was a very unlikely series of events.

Not that it was attempted the attempt itself. Where several people tried and failed to assassinate him. Then Gavrilo Princip went to buy a pastry, the Archduke's driver turned the wrong way and Princip just happened to come across the Archduke again and shot him. It was kind of absurd.

It almost looks like God wanted him to die :$

 

[Vinization]

I wouldn't be surprised if Serbian radicals tried to assassinate an important Ottoman official/prince/maybe even the Sultan instead of Franz Ferdinand. IOTL most Serbian lands had been "retaken" from the Ottomans at this point, which is not the case here.

 

[Noblesse Oblige]

View attachment 611921
Fatima Al-Zamil​

Al Zamil took a risk, and agreed to go to war with the Saudis, but would only do so, after the Ottoman troops and aid arrived. This was a suitable compromise, and on November 29th, the first troops started to arrive as well as the first cargo of rifles and ammunition arrived in Ha’il. The Regent of Jabal Shammar then called the Rashid tribes to Ha’il where the tribes, emboldened by Ottoman aid, agreed to go to war with the Saudis once again. Later that evening, the Emirate of Jabal Shammar declared war on the Emirate of Nejd, declaring the Saudi probes in Al-Qassim as their casus belli for war.

As the desert Arabs went to war again, the Ottomans were poised to finally have their vassal take control of the region, ending a headache once and for all.” A History of a Rashidi Arabia, University of Ha’il, 1991.

Well this may work in the Ottoman's favor. There isn't any love between the Houses of Osmanoglu (and the House of Rashid) and Saud. Supporting the Emirate of Jabal Shammar to destroy Nejd, and exterminate the House of Saud and their Wahhabi adherents will be a big gamble, but that is a risk that might be worth taking.

How do you guys think a major war will start?

Some silly thing in the Balkans, do you really have to ask?

 

[Noblesse Oblige]

It almost looks like God wanted him to die :$

What if you wanted the Black Hand to fail in killing you in spectacular fashion and did fail..

...but God said, you still die anyway.

 

[Osman Aga]

I wouldn't be surprised if Serbian radicals tried to assassinate an important Ottoman official/prince/maybe even the Sultan instead of Franz Ferdinand. IOTL most Serbian lands had been "retaken" from the Ottomans at this point, which is not the case here.

Well Mehmed V did visit Thessaloniki in 1911. If he were to visit another town in 1913/1914, like Skopje or Bitola, or even in Kosovo to meet Ottoman-Albanian representatives, he or one of the princes could meet a Serb radical. Kosovo was as much of a region Serbs desired as Bosnia.

 

[Hawabin]

Well Mehmed V did visit Thessaloniki in 1911. If he were to visit another town in 1913/1914, like Skopje or Bitola, or even in Kosovo to meet Ottoman-Albanian representatives, he or one of the princes could meet a Serb radical. Kosovo was as much of a region Serbs desired as Bosnia.

Maybe that's how Osman Faud becomes the sultan (with his predecessors being killed, abdicating etc etc).

But that means that Ottomans cannot stay out of the war as they would be primary belligerents of the WWI.

 

[Carlos I de Quito]

The best thing is that they abstained from the war for the moment so that it does not harm their growth. They are not ready for war yet.
Perhaps a participation in the axis but there is no time for that.

 

[oofo]

What of the Armenian Reform Package? I don’t see any reason why the Russians wouldn’t start agitating for it in late 1912 as they did in OTL. They might even be encouraged by the concessions made to the Albanians. And there has already been significant damage to Turkish-Armenian relations in the Ottoman Empire as a result of events in 1908-1909. The Russians would maybe be less boisterous about it (not threatening to invade) but I still see it being an issue for them.

 

[Osman Aga]

The best thing is that they abstained from the war for the moment so that it does not harm their growth. They are not ready for war yet.
Perhaps a participation in the axis but there is no time for that.

OTL the Ottoman Army underwent a reorganization in 1909 which would be finished in 1915, resulting in a much more formidable Army. The Ottomans need to avoid war until 1915 at least. Or wait until Russia breaks vs the Germans and the Ottomans open a new front against Austria-Hungary.

Having a cake and eating it too (take advantage of Russian Collapse while retaking land you want from Austria-Hungary).

 

[Noblesse Oblige]

OTL the Ottoman Army underwent a reorganization in 1909 which would be finished in 1915, resulting in a much more formidable Army. The Ottomans need to avoid war until 1915 at least. Or wait until Russia breaks vs the Germans and the Ottomans open a new front against Austria-Hungary.

Having a cake and eating it too (take advantage of Russian Collapse while retaking land you want from Austria-Hungary).

Why would it want land at the expense of A-H? I mean, Bosnia sure, but outside of that?

 

[haider najib]

Why would it want land at the expense of A-H? I mean, Bosnia sure, but outside of that?

i think thats what @Osman Aga means by expanse of KuK taking bosnia back. My opinion if that is that is the case give KuK 'free hand' in serbia and Montenegro in exchange.

btw @Osman Aga is eastern Rumelia lost forever or could it still be recovered?

 

[EvilJam]

No one will like the Ottomans having that much oil once the full extent is not realised. Not even other Muslim states...

It will be (in the views of others), too much power concentrated in one pair of hands. Ottoman Empire + Arabia (if they conquer it) has the ability to crash the World Economy on a whim once Oil supplants Coal.

 

[Vinization]

i think thats what @Osman Aga means by expanse of KuK taking bosnia back. My opinion if that is that is the case give KuK 'free hand' in serbia and Montenegro in exchange.

btw @Osman Aga is eastern Rumelia lost forever or could it still be recovered?

I'm not him, but I think it has an insurmountable Christian majority now.

 

[EvilJam]

i think thats what @Osman Aga means by expanse of KuK taking bosnia back. My opinion if that is that is the case give KuK 'free hand' in serbia and Montenegro in exchange.

btw @Osman Aga is eastern Rumelia lost forever or could it still be recovered?

Eastern Rumelia would likely just be a permanent drag on the Ottoman Empire, constantly rebellious, culturally too different to be content in the Empire, and not contributing anything special economically. It isn't worth the effort...

 

[haider najib]

Eastern Rumelia would likely just be a permanent drag on the Ottoman Empire, constantly rebellious, culturally too different to be content in the Empire, and not contributing anything special economically. It isn't worth the effort...

I'm not him, but I think it has an insurmountable Christian majority now.

Apologies if it felt rude that i only asked him and portrayed my message as not wanting other people to reply. That wasn't the intention, simply im dumb and i know specifically he knows ottoman stuff.

Fair enough, so how do the ottomans make the border and european holdings stronger? If they don't take eastern rumelia Bulgaria can cut the ottoman european land in two easily, its a constant dagger at the throat. Can they maginot line the border or is that not possible?

 

[Vinization]

Apologies if it felt rude that i only asked him and portrayed my message as not wanting other people to reply. That wasn't the intention, simply im dumb and i know specifically he knows ottoman stuff.

Fair enough, so how do the ottomans make the border and european holdings stronger? If they don't take eastern rumelia Bulgaria can cut the ottoman european land in two easily, its a constant dagger at the throat. Can they maginot line the border or is that not possible?

He's probably this site's biggest expert on the OE right now, so no offense taken.

 

[Osman Aga]

i think thats what @Osman Aga means by expanse of KuK taking bosnia back. My opinion if that is that is the case give KuK 'free hand' in serbia and Montenegro in exchange.

btw @Osman Aga is eastern Rumelia lost forever or could it still be recovered?

East Rumelia was by 1912, without the Balkan War 20-25% is Muslim. It isn't necessarily lost but the Ottomans have little interest to regain a Bulgarian Orthodox dominated region. If the local population becomes between 33-50% Muslim, it is definitely controlable. But these percentages are usually not peacefully achieved...