The Footprint of Mussolini - TL

[Drizzt]

Well, quite a few democracies IOTL still have Communist parties who win a few seats in national legislatures and have some success in local elections like Japan, India, Czechia, and France, so I imagine quite a few countries by 2020 have Fascist parties which win a handful of seats in national legislatures and some local races.

Indeed. I think the gist of it is that in TTL Fascism will enjoy the double-standard that communism enjoys in OTL. And probably attract much of the same followers.

 

[Noblesse Oblige]

Indeed. I think the gist of it is that in TTL Fascism will enjoy the double-standard that communism enjoys in OTL. And probably attract much of the same followers.

Considering that the world I think is more right, I'm not surprised.

On the subject of Portugal, I'm honestly surprised that Duarte III actually got to keep his throne this time. Then again, I think it was buoyed by his support in the colonies, even though the Royal capital is now in Luanda instead of Lisbon. Either way, both a better deal and a worse deal somehow than what he got IOTL. Juan Carlos, Umberto, and Boris however might be better off (well, kinda sorta for JCI, it's still pretty much similar to OTL.) as is, surprisngly enough, Amadeo di Aosta.

By the by, is he still styled as Duke of Aosta on top of being King of Croatia & Bosnia?

 

[Drizzt]

On the subject of Portugal, I'm honestly surprised that Duarte III actually got to keep his throne this time. Then again, I think it was buoyed by his support in the colonies, even though the Royal capital is now in Luanda instead of Lisbon. Either way, both a better deal and a worse deal somehow than what he got IOTL. Juan Carlos, Umberto, and Boris however might be better off (well, kinda sorta for JCI, it's still pretty much similar to OTL.) as is, surprisngly enough, Amadeo di Aosta.

Given Angolas rich with natural resources including oil and diamonds it might very well end up wealthier than the European Portugal in the 21st century. Which would make look Duarte III's supposed exile actually good for the Royal Family regarding being where the centre of power is.
Holy Empire of Lusitanicca anyone ?

 

[Noblesse Oblige]

I can't help but think of Code Geass with that though...just Lusitania would do though.

 

[Bookmark1995]

Given Angolas rich with natural resources including oil and diamonds it might very well end up wealthier than the European Portugal in the 21st century. Which would make look Duarte III's supposed exile actually good for the Royal Family regarding being where the centre of power is.
Holy Empire of Lusitanicca anyone ?

Depends if the Angolan government actually invests in its population or not.

 

[Not Henry G.]

I don't think "Fall" is the right word to describe what happened to Fascism. It didn't collapse like Communism and Nazism. It accomplished what it needed, and then people moved on when it was no longer needed.

 

[Bookmark1995]

I don't think "Fall" is the right word to describe what happened to Fascism. It didn't collapse like Communism and Nazism. It accomplished what it needed, and then people moved on when it was no longer needed.

There is a parallel to OTL Taiwan, where Chiang Jr. gradually loosened the country up, to the point where the KMT is still a legitimate party, and wasn't overthrown in revolution.

 

[Noblesse Oblige]

There is a parallel to OTL Taiwan, where Chiang Jr. gradually loosened the country up, to the point where the KMT is still a legitimate party, and wasn't overthrown in revolution.

^ This really. Technically, it did fall, but it fell more like how Communism fell IOTL for the large part, case in point that IOTL, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (the successor to the Communist Party of the Soviet Union) is still a legitimate party, and the second largest in the Duma (which isn't saying much given that it's still 1/8th the seats that United Russia, (re: Putin's party) holds.)

In other words, Fascist parties are still around ITTL and is still legitimate parties around the world here, with them still likely retaining some influence in government, assuming it hasn't been banned by certain countries.

 

[RedLegion]

I don't think "Fall" is the right word to describe what happened to Fascism. It didn't collapse like Communism and Nazism. It accomplished what it needed, and then people moved on when it was no longer needed.

Fascism TTL is like King Arthur, people think it is dead but it will return when the Kingdom of Italy is in danger. LOL

 

[Bookmark1995]

^ This really. Technically, it did fall, but it fell more like how Communism fell IOTL for the large part, case in point that IOTL, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (the successor to the Communist Party of the Soviet Union) is still a legitimate party, and the second largest in the Duma (which isn't saying much given that it's still 1/8th the seats that United Russia, (re: Putin's party) holds.)

In other words, Fascist parties are still around ITTL and is still legitimate parties around the world here, with them still likely retaining some influence in government, assuming it hasn't been banned by certain countries.

First of all, the OTL Communists in modern Russia can be more accurately described as "right-wing nationalists cosplaying as communists." It isn't an actual party at all.

TTL Fascist parties seem to be an exotic version of "illiberal democracy."

 

[Kammada]

First of all, the OTL Communists in modern Russia can be more accurately described as "right-wing nationalists cosplaying as communists." It isn't an actual party at all.

TTL Fascist parties seem to be an exotic version of "illiberal democracy."

I think TTL's post-downfall Fascist parties will have an easier time adapting to the new realities while still remaining truer to their roots than OTL's mainstream communist parties (which even at their best are little more than social democrats with a soft spot for some anti-Western regimes around the globe). In part that would be because Fascism has been rather opportunistic even in its beginning (compared to Communism) and never questioned the existence of the private property and of the nation state, or come to that, the class cooperation (corporatism may well be represented as one of its manifestations). The violent and totalitarian foundations of Fascism may be downplayed just as well, with pretentions that Fascist Italy hasn't really been totalitarian in the first place (especially compared to the Nazi Germany, the Soviet Union or the United Arab Republic), no matter what Mussolini himself might have said on the matter. So far, OTL's crisis of globalization has been promoting 'illiberal democracies' and 'hybrid regimes'; ITTL, it may spell the return of unrepented Fascists in full force.

 

[Bookmark1995]

I think TTL's post-downfall Fascist parties will have an easier time adapting to the new realities while still remaining truer to their roots than OTL's mainstream communist parties (which even at their best are little more than social democrats with a soft spot for some anti-Western regimes around the globe). In part that would be because Fascism has been rather opportunistic even in its beginning (compared to Communism) and never questioned the existence of the private property and of the nation state, or come to that, the class cooperation (corporatism may well be represented as one of its manifestations). The violent and totalitarian foundations of Fascism may be downplayed just as well, with pretentions that Fascist Italy hasn't really been totalitarian in the first place (especially compared to the Nazi Germany, the Soviet Union or the United Arab Republic), no matter what Mussolini himself might have said on the matter. So far, OTL's crisis of globalization has been promoting 'illiberal democracies' and 'hybrid regimes'; ITTL, it may spell the return of unrepented Fascists in full force.

TTL Fascism has been more like a standard form of authoritarianism. Mussolini's reputation might be that he was less cuddly than the likes of Otto Von Bismarck.

 

[Icedaemon]

Oh dear, I am a story post behind, it looks like.

With their old domains now either in Commonwealth or fully annexed, Portugal’s Colonial history came to a close. Duarte III hailed the agreement as an example of Portugal’s government having listened to its citizens. While it was true that many Portuguese were grateful the war was over, most mainland citizens were still angered at the favouritism the government had for their African colonies, whom the more urbanised and secular continentals looked down upon as moronic farmers. If Duarte thought he had saved the old order from further change, he was badly mistaken.

Let's see what Duarte III can still salvage. It looks like he's trying to give the people what they want without actually paying attention to what they ask, probably not the best path.

He would become a ceremonial King for now, with a later referendum to determine whether he would keep even that. At the same time, full democracy would be restored to Portugal for the first time in living memory. Duarte, who was always opposed to bloodshed though attached to the notion of Divine Kingly Right, reluctantly accepted the terms. Rumours suggest that even Ciano demand he accept it to avoid another potential conflict. King Duarte returned to his Palace on May 24th, now under effective house arrest. He would not even be allowed to campaign on his behalf during the referendum, being told he could not leave the Palace. Mainland Portugal proceeded to undo the legacy of the regime, with unions forming in every quarter openly, schools being secularised, and status of Salazar torn down. By contrast, Portuguese Africa stuck doggedly to their old ways, with regional leaders assuring the locals that the Church would maintain its role in society no matter what happened in the mainland.

One entertaining mess, coming up...

Much to their horror, the results gave a narrow victory to the Monarchy owing to the overwhelming support Duarte III had in Angola and Mozambique, even among Black Portuguese for his insistence that they would be counted as full citizens to despite pressure from more reactionary quarters to expel or discriminate against them. This had created a constitutional crisis where the African tail was wagging the mainland dog in a complete reversal to the traditional situation where colonial outposts are at the whim of their mainland leaders. Now came a bizarre situation where the mainland was planning on declaring independence from … itself. As the questions began to escalate, the Pope was soon dragged into another diplomatic storm that November. In discussions with the King, Soares and the Pope, it was agreed that Portugal would become a federal state with the country divided into the three territories of the mainland, Angola and Mozambique – all of whom would now have their own Parliaments. King Duarte himself would move to Luanda in more hospitable company. He was given unique privilege over the Parliaments of Angola and Mozambique in terms of their opening ceremonies, but he would have a borderline non-existent role in mainland Portugal for everything but state visits. Needless to say, he would not have the same powers he once had over government policy. Restrictions were put on place with respect to how much state support any one region of the country got to stop inter-communal tension. These changes were able to quell the calls on the mainland, at least for the time.

... And, Finito. Though, isn't Portugal used to becoming the wagged dog for it's colonies? The United Kingdom of Brazil and Portugal comes to mind. If Portugal does want to become a republic, Portugal can into irrelevance?

When King Constantine was invited along, the Greek people were overjoyed and the marches and protests finally cooled down. Meeting in Istanbul that November, Turkey was by far the most hardline on any settlement, with Simeon being the most permissive. But ultimately, Ciano was able to convince the two of his own solution. Greece would leave the Roman Alliance but would be forbidden from entering any other Alliance Bloc. With the exception of Turkish bases in Crete, all Roman Alliance troops would have to withdraw. Communists and ‘Incendiary Nationalists’ would be forbidden from power, with a rigidly enforced constitution that would ensure power could never be effectively concentrated by any one power. Constantine would consequently retake his kingdom while being constitutionally forbidden from any great exercise of power due to the creation of a democratic parliament. The Greek army would be reduced to nothingness, its government would renounce any claims over its old territory and full amnesty would be granted for Greeks who served under the Ioannidis government. Both sides were forced to make tough decisions, but ultimately, both were desperate enough to ensure a deal could work. On December 2nd, the Istanbul agreement was ratified, letting Greece leave the Roman Alliance. Of course, Greece would not be the only country to leave the Bloc in the next few years.

Well, someone screwed by circumstance OTL is getting a better deal at least, though Greece itself appears much worse off.

Amin received significant levels of funding and backing from Zaire, who despised Kenyatta’s accommodation with the West - there was even suggestion of merging Zaire and the EAF into a super-state (though the ultimate leader of the state differed depending on whether you asked Mulele or Amin). On November 22nd 1976, Amin would attempt his coup in the capital of Nairobi. However, he faced a barrage of firepower that he never expected from an army that remained loyal to the President over Amin. Amin was shot dead in a firefight on the streets of Nairobi, leading to the entire coup to collapse on its own face. The African Revival Party was quickly banned and many thought that would be it.

Amin and Mugabe getting what they deserve rather than what they managed OTL is another pair of notches in the 'this is the better timeline' column though.

While in 1961 their officers were overwhelmingly White, only the highest of the top brass by 1977 was still majority Caucasian. Significant work had been done by Tshombe and others to encourage a native talent pool that did not rely on political favouritism. Even more impressively, the ratio of ground troops was roughly 90% Black and 10% White, in keeping with the national ratio. Katanga’s military used more advanced equipment than any other Black-African power - much of it bought from the Italians. To say the least, the EAF was not happy about fighting alongside Katanga, who had one of the worst reputations in Africa for supposedly selling out their race. But though the propaganda boost to Zaire did exist, it could not compare to the magnitude of firepower the Katangans could deliver. Zaire had done little to actually improve its army, mainly buying cheap weapons, conscripting disproportionately Tutsi boys and men. The Tutsis were seen as collaborators with the Belgians who were seen as needing to prove their loyalty. Tribalism was a serious issue even in the supposedly ‘Black-Egalitarian’ Zaire where all Blacks were supposedly treated equally to each other. Thus, the often divided and terribly underfunded Zairean army (half of which was in Ethiopia) was made mincemeat of by Katangan helicopters and napalm. Though officially spurning contact, Kenyatta privately coordinated with Tshombe on strategy against the Zaireans. A further blow for Zaire came about when the Republic of the Congo (the successor state to the one that Mulele and others had successfully reduced to nothing, though now combined with French Congo) joined the dog pile on January 27th 1977. Once again, the Republic of Congo’s troops greatly outmatched the Zaireans due to their close cooperation with the French. Surrounded on all sides, the Zaireans didn’t have a chance. In Ethiopia, their leadership was purged by local commanders (who knew it was madness to choose who many in the international scene saw as a rabid dog over the respected EAF) and their troops forced to swear loyalty to King Selassie - those that didn’t were swiftly killed for ‘betraying Africa’, an irony given Zaire’s pomposity on the subject. On March 22nd, EAF troops finally made it until just outside of Overtureville.

And Afro-Fascism dies a bloody death just as regular-old-fascism dies a peaceful slow one. This timeline might have more big and medium-sized conflicts than OTL, but it seems to leave a world that's almost devoid of extremist ideologies and prepared to move forwards as one.

Tigray, Danakil, Hararghe and Bale regions would be retained by Italy to ensure Italy maintained an unbroken connection between Eritrea and Somalia. However, the Ethiopians would be allowed to annex the Gedo, and Middle+Lower Juba regions in the far south of Somalia.

Hmm. How many pissed-off Somali had to vacate their homes due to this? Any repercussions they might bring?

"Farinacci's Footprint" has a nice ring to it I suppose for an in-universe TL that's more or less our world.

Eh, they'd still have assumptions based on how things went ITTL. This might well be an 'axis victory' timeline from a TTL perspective.

The thought of Hess having to listen to Suslov’s insane ramblings as cellmates makes me laugh.

I smell the makings of a great sitcom.

Yes! Yyyeess! That's an idea worthy of an Omake.

It would be no surprise to anyone that it would be King Juan Carlos of Spain who would begin the downfall of Fascism. His private antipathy towards the system would result in his planning all throughout 1978 to launch a clean break with the Roman Alliance altogether and to join ITO. On Easter Sunday in 1978, Carlos announced that by Royal Decree, Spain was leaving the Roman Alliance and requesting to join ITO, promising elections within the year. This announcement sent shockwaves throughout the entire Roman Alliance, who had never seen a member apply to leave before. While it may have been imaginable back in the days of Mussolini to have violently crushed potential defectors, by now there was no strong leadership or belief anywhere within the group to justify such an action. Instead, Italian troops based in Spain meekly left their positions and flew home. ITO enthusiastically embraced Spain and promised integration into Europe.

Good on Juan Carlos being himself, but more ITTL. In large part, a major aspect of this timeline is very much about kings either successfully riding the currently popular wave (be it a stabilizing anticommunist influence as in Germany and Hungary or the liberalism as in the 'now') to restore their prestige or missing the point and risking everything. This is a more monarchy-friendly world than OTL, which is welcome.

Argentina by contrast, under the Fascist dictatorship of Isabel Peron in the image of her late husband (as well as the only female leader of the Roman Alliance), was not ready to go gently into the night. After losing in the final of the 1978 World Cup, held on her home ground no less, against Anti-Fascist Brazil, a crippling sense of anger and frustration had poured from the pitch onto Peron herself. Her own regime was desperate to hold onto power, and both her and the Junta that surrounded her were sure they knew just how. There had negotiations at the time with President Salvador Allende in Chile over the status of the islands of Picton, Lennox and Nueva at the Beagle Channel. This was a longstanding dispute between the two powers with both claiming sovereignty over the islands (Argentina also has a lesser known claim to the Falkland Islands but their full annexation into the nuclear weapon-owing UK made any talk of return a useless quest). As protests began in Buenos Aires, Peron ordered her generals to take evasive action and to save the fortunes of the regime. On June 3rd 1978, Argentine troops under the command of General Galtieri occupied the entirety of Tierra del Fuego (not simply the three islands) while threatening to invade the rest of Chile unless Allende surrendered his claims. It certainly had the intended effect at home – protests against the regime stopped and joyous, patriotic marches crying ‘Isabel!’ began to bring life to a halt. As Chile was not formerly an ITO member, no one was obligated to come to its side in the event of conflict. Instead, the Chilean Navy began an almighty bombardment against the Argentine forces while American and Brazilian aid came rolling in. As Argentina began the war, the Roman Alliance was not obligated to come to her defence. General Pinochet, the head of Chile’s armed forces, announced that there would be a ‘War to the Death’ with the Argentines. President Brooke spent little time, with the support of his Foreign Secretary Henry Kissinger, in funding Allende’s government and ensuring the vast undertaking of a war stretching across their entire border would not overwhelm them. The Beagle War would be technically fought along the vast breadth of the Chilean-Argentine border, but fighting was overwhelmingly concentrated in the far south, where naval power was almost as important as the ground operations. With British help from the Falklands (mainly in terms of reconnaissance), the Chilean Navy was able to identify and overwhelm Argentine formations before they knew what hit them. While initial enthusiasm for the war had aided Isabel Peron’s government, this quickly petered out as multiple military setbacks began to be circled around the rumour mill. On the other hand, Chileans on both wings of politics united against the common menace – following the conservative Pinochet’s election in 1980, he would specifically thank and salute his predecessor and Social Democrat electoral rival Allende for “Refusing to let partisan politics hold back the partisans in the field”.

I love how this plays into every Argentinean stereotype. The football rivalry with Brazil, the start-a-war-over-fairly-useless-islands-to-entertain-the-populace, the getting their arses kicked, one of Juan Peron's wives doing stuff...

Though Timoslav is often portrayed as altruistic and enlightened for the move, he would go on to tell King Simeon in 1983, “I did it so my descendants could be kings”. Regardless, he was quite victorious in his efforts, as the Ustache’s popularity had never recovered from the disaster of the Croat-Serb War and the people did not much miss them. Croatia-Bosnia would go on to be officially formed at the end of the year as a democracy, albeit one with an exceptionally powerful monarch who justified his power in the name of keeping harmony between the two nations. The monarch of Croatia-Bosnia indeed has more power in practice than any other monarch in Europe today for that very reason, and not for a lack of kings in Europe.

This was such a shrewd move! As long as there's differences and arguments between the Bosniaks and the Croats, he basically gets to do what he wants within reason. Good on him.

King Umberto II had never been a fan of Fascism, tolerating it to a large degree owing to Mussolini’s evident success in making Italy an international power as well as giving leeway to Balbo and Ciano for their respect of the Royal Family. But he had always been aware of Mussolini’s attempts to install a Republic and consequently knew that Fascism could be a long-term threat to the Monarchy. At the same time, he had a strong working relationship with Ciano, who had helped Umberto receive the reins of power after his father’s death. It cost Ciano his chance of being Duce after Mussolini’s death, but he was still ultimately Duce nonetheless. By this time, Ciano would later confess that he was confident Fascism was doomed and that the only question was the method with which it was doomed – violence or transition. Dino Grandi, one of the older members of the Fascist Council, outright stated he would launch a Second March on Rome if Ciano announced an election. On September 10th, he received a visit from King Umberto. Umberto explained to Ciano that the One-Party system could not survive the current economic contraction and that the time had come to “End Fascism to save the Fascist Party”. Umberto said he would take the decision out of Ciano’s hands and announce it himself on national television that the government would be dissolved with new elections to come thereafter. Umberto was deeply worried that he had pushed Ciano too far with the order, but hearing that the King was working over his head came as an immense relief to Ciano, who said, “You’ve finally paid me back from when I helped you be King”. Thus, King Umberto made a televised address on October 15th 1978, announcing that the ruling government was abolished, an official inquest would be made into the death of Pope John Paul I, that a caretaker government was to be formed between leaders of the Fascist Party and the opposition (in which he explicitly mentioned Berlinguer) and that the first multi-party elections would take place in Italy that December for the first time in nearly sixty years. Dino Grandi, himself an ardent monarchist, took the decision with good faith as it had come directly from the king.

And again, the good king being the stabilizing influence which ends the political turmoil. Does the success of kings in the Mediterranean perhaps mean that there's more power in the hands of Scandinavian and British monarchs than OTL as well?

 

[Hagre]

Conflict in TTL's Africa is very interesting and even reminds me of the cluster fuck that was the Congo Wars, though definitely much worse. How're historical African leaders other than Amin and Mugabe doing here? I'd like to know what happens to leaders like William Tubman, Julius Nyerere, and Thomas Sankara.

 

[Icedaemon]

Amin and Mugabe were just shot two updates ago, and good riddance.

 

[Noblesse Oblige]

... And, Finito. Though, isn't Portugal used to becoming the wagged dog for it's colonies? The United Kingdom of Brazil and Portugal comes to mind. If Portugal does want to become a republic, Portugal can into irrelevance?

I'm sure the republicans will find a way to make their dreams of a stable republic come true here. Duarte III is really not popular at all in the mainland, so its possible, despite the referendum that there will be some other way to get what they want. Even if it means, Portugal declaring independence from (technically) itself.

Well, someone screwed by circumstance OTL is getting a better deal at least, though Greece itself appears much worse off.

Also kinda ironic, given that was the hubris launched by Constantine II (and to a lesser extent his father Pavlos and grandfather Constantine I) IOTL that doomed the monarchy.

Amin and Mugabe getting what they deserve rather than what they managed OTL is another pair of notches in the 'this is the better timeline' column though.

And Afro-Fascism dies a bloody death just as regular-old-fascism dies a peaceful slow one. This timeline might have more big and medium-sized conflicts than OTL, but it seems to leave a world that's almost devoid of extremist ideologies and prepared to move forwards as one.

Not necessarily, I'm sure there's still some old guard Fascists out there, though at the very least they're not in a position to do anything.

Good on Juan Carlos being himself, but more ITTL. In large part, a major aspect of this timeline is very much about kings either successfully riding the currently popular wave (be it a stabilizing anticommunist influence as in Germany and Hungary or the liberalism as in the 'now') to restore their prestige or missing the point and risking everything. This is a more monarchy-friendly world than OTL, which is welcome.

It's why I love this timeline. As a monarchist it brings a tear to my eye, and the more democratic-friendliness of some of them only adds to that feeling.

 

[AK47Productions]

If I had to guess either Sankara isn't an avowed Communist and switched to Democratic-Socialism or the French got rid of him.

 

[Sorairo]

Hello all, since so many of you expressed your support over the course of this Timeline, here’s the poll to determine the Turtledove awards for this TL’s category.

2020 Turtledoves - Best Early 20th Century Timeline POLL

The Footprint of Mussolini; @Sorairo The Rainbow. A World War One on Canada's West Coast Timeline; @YYJ Ulster Fought and the Kaiser Won; @KanonenKartoffel April 1942 Alternate Indian Ocean; @Zheng He Twilight of the Valkyries: A 20 July Plot TL (Redux); @LumineVonReuental The March of Time...

www.alternatehistory.com

If you think this TL deserves it, don’t pull back from a quick vote.

 

[Food-Oh_Koon]

Voted. I can't believe this TL is about to end. Thank you @Sorairo for giving this wonderful TL!

 

[Icedaemon]

Come to think of it, this timeline has only been going for a little over a year. The speed of updates is actually quite incredible. The timeline progresses faster than many others, with years or decades often described in a single post, but it's still quite massive, with over 300 pages. It's an excellent fit for the Turtledove-for-2019.