A Lusophone World

[Lusitania]

Well, it is nice to know that the "Voyage of the Damned" has a happier ending than OTL for many of the passengers...

Portugal's being willing to take in refugees ITTL is one of the things I like about TTL's Portugal; BTW, the US is a fine one to talk about how bad Portugal is, given some of the anti-Communist regimes they would support during the Cold War...

Yes the closest we could call it the voyage of despair.

the Portuguese in their desperation and time of need had the luck to turn a group who provided the country with the skill set and knowledge it greatly was in need of.

Iotl the Portuguese government of Salazar had no stomach for the anti-Semitic policies and action of Nazi germany. He even went out of his way to protect Portuguese citizens in Germany and occupied Europe be they Jewish or otherwise.

Iotl the Portuguese had very limited resources and were scared (really scared) or Nazi germany invasion of mainland Portugal. That one reason it developed detailed plans to evacuate to Azores in case of Nazi invasion. While it true that the government did not actively help refugees fleeing Germany it was passive and required people have resources to support themselves. (Note there were thousands of people malnourished living in Portugal at the time) so it could not offer to house thousands of refugees if it could not support its own population. Also a huge Jewish refugee camps would of been a huge invite for Nazi.

now to ittl, Portugal is a far different country, more able to defend itself, with industry and a willing trade and potential ally so Germany was kept at bay while Portugal did everything it could to help and allow refugees to escape. Bringing to the country thousands to settle during the war while allowing three-four times as many to escape.

this left a huge positive impression on the country, emigrants were looked upon as beneficial provided skills, knowledge and wealth to country and its people.

As for US antagonist attitude towards Portugal and Portuguese federation was the fact that its meddling in South America, Africa and Ásia many times went against American interests.

the Americans dealt with regimes that were many times more egregious to its citizens but were limited to within its own borders. The major issue with the Portuguese was they were involved diplomatically, economically and militarily outside their borders and this had an impact towards those who were perceived as being allies and supporters of the Portuguese.

I guess iotl equivalent is US support of Israel prevented it from having positive interaction with many of the Arab countries around Israel.

So we can say the Portuguese became victims of their own success or ability to influence events around it.

 

[Unknown]

The major issue with the Portuguese was they were involved diplomatically, economically and militarily outside their borders and this had an impact towards those who were perceived as being allies and supporters of the Portuguese.

This I can understand--there are shades of gray here, though, and the Portuguese did become victims of their own success with regards to relations with the United States (and, if the US found out how Portugal influenced events in India, they'd be even more justified.

Yeah, the US did deal with regimes that were much worse towards their own citizens than the Portuguese were but, as you mentioned, the aforementioned regimes kept it within their own borders (and even the US got tired of some of those regimes when they became too egregious to ignore--witness what happened to Trujillo in the Dominican Republic after the deaths of the Mirabel sisters)...

 

[Sceonn]

Is this an update? Feels like an expert from a book butIf India finally ends its Civil War will it still tolerate Federalism? It might prefer a more centralist outlook.

 

[Lusitania]

Is this an update? Feels like an expert from a book butIf India finally ends its Civil War will it still tolerate Federalism? It might prefer a more centralist outlook.

Hi for clarification on both Indian subcontinent and south East Asia I would suggest readers read posts 209 which provides an explanation for divergence in those two regions and post 230 which actually talks about the situation from 1945-1949.

Note: the conflicts in those two regions actually spanned almost a decade 1945-1950s. Therefore the outcome of the conflicts will only be posted in the 1950s.

 

[Lusitania]

Will the Portuguese Entertainment Industry compete with the Anglosphere then? They definitely have an advantage in the Latin world.

Yes Portuguese movie industry in the 50 and onward do compete with US Hollywood. Iotl Brazil for example with its 6-12 movies a year industry witnesses at 10-20% drop in production as a result of “Portuguese cultural” invasion ittl.

in the rest of Latin America Portuguese movies have a cultural advantage especially starting in 1960 when some are released in Spanish for Latin America.

 

[Lusitania]

1940 – 1949 (cont.)

The Post War Years 1945 – 1949 (cont.)

Foreign Affairs (1 of 2)​

The Minister of Foreign Affairs, José Caeiro da Mata, diplomatic style changed after the war as Portugal’s need to placate the world was no longer needed. Portugal instead looked for partners whom it could work with and trade. It respected other countries and in turn Portugal expected the same respect from other countries. This was made difficult by Portuguese own actions both during the war and after. As greater scrutiny of Portugal’s dealings with Nazi Germany came to light Portugal’s good boy image gained during the war was tarnished. Then its involvement in both the ongoing civil wars in the Indian Subcontinent and former Dutch East Indies did not earn it any favors. At same time the Portuguese attempted to help both Brazil and Argentina’s own development by getting involved in supporting and providing both countries financial support against the US wishes, making the US even angrier at Portugal. As if this was not enough the Portuguese then got themselves tangled with Spain and pulled off controversial debt for colonies trade in December of 1949.

The saving grace for the Portuguese was the seemingly unstoppable spread of communism. In Europe following the WWII the Soviets installed communist governments in their occupied countries while on the other side of the world they did the same in North Korea at same time communist forces defeated the Nationalist Chinese forces forcing them to flee the mainland. Just as the Americans and western allies became alarmed at the spread of communism the attempted communist coup in Czech Republic and Germany frightened everyone and focused American attention on communist this led America to seek out allies to counter communism and the hence start the “cold war” powerplay between the two super powers that would define the 2nd half of the 20th century. Portugal who was a stanch opponent of communism and been battling communism internally for the last 20 years suddenly found itself on the American good side once more. The greater dangers of communism made the Americans seek out any and all allies and with the growing Portuguese military, economic and political strengths the Americans decided to work with Portuguese instead of against them.

USA​

The Portuguese ambassador to the USA role was two-fold to present Portuguese position to American leaders, promote Portugal and its overseas provinces to American businessmen and provide American public and press with positive image of the country. After Portugal joined the Allies it appointed João António de Bianchi as its new ambassador and for the first two years relations between Portugal and USA improved but as the post war began relations between the two grew steadily worse. Ambassador Bianchi visits to the white house or appearances in front of several American congressional committees defending Portugal were unsuccessful. In 1947 the Portuguese appointed a new Ambassador, veteran statesman Pedro Teotónio Pereira who had been instrumental in representing Portugal in Madrid and maintaining Nationalist Spain neutral was sent to Washington to rehabilitate Portugal’s image and relation. Unfortunately, he had his hands full but just like in Madrid Ambassador Pereira seemed to work magic.

First major issue he faced was US freezing of Portuguese assets by US government.[1] Together with the British Ambassador Lord Inverchapel an agreement was achieved in which Portugal returned a large amount of gold and in return the Americans lifted their trade restrictions and unfroze Portuguese assets. That alone would have been a victory for Portugal, but Ambassador Pereira received even greater benefit with Portugal receiving over 1 billion dollars in war reparations from Germany and Austria. While in Washington Ambassador Pereira was in constant contact with two of Portugal’s most important South American trading partners and attempted to convince the Americans to provide both Brazil and Argentina with access to US and Europeans markets. Here the powerful American political lobby worked against Ambassador Pereira and he was only able to help Brazil. Not that the effort was not lost on Brazilian and Argentinian leaders who praised Ambassador Pereira for his efforts.

No sooner had he resolved the issue than Portugal’s involvement in Indian subcontinent and South East Asia became flash points in American-Portuguese relationship. Portuguese occupation on several islands was also a point of tension between the two countries. In both cases the Portuguese ambassador employed two tactics at same time. Talking to both President Truman’s government and congress while portraying the Portuguese as defenders of freedom and capitalism against the forces of anarchy and communism. Portugal’s image improved a little but when Portugal and Nationalist China formalized Macau’s expanded size in return for debt relief and more arms the Portuguese were once again seen as gaining advantage over hard pressed country.

Relations between the Portugal and America took another hit with the Portugal – Brazil and Portugal - Argentina trade and economic agreements. The American anger towards the Portuguese was felt by Ambassador Pereira who was summoned to the White house not once but a total of four times in regard to what the US deemed to be Portuguese meddling in US interests. Ambassador Pereira defended Portugal by insisting it was only providing assistance to the two South American countries that were attempting in doing the same thing it was doing, that being industrializing and controlling their own development.

The proclamation of the Portuguese Federation was one of the issues that both taxed Ambassador Pereira and Portuguese Embassy the most. Since 1945 the Portuguese embassy and its consulates had doubled in size, but the announcement was such a huge topic of debate and interest that both Ambassador Pereira and other officials were in constant demand for interviews and speaking engagements. While all this was going on Ambassador Pereira was defending the Portuguese Federation to the hostile American government.

Following the Iron Curtain Crises, Ambassador Pereira was instrumental in representing Portuguese interest in the creation of NATO. He was present at President Truman’s signing of the treaty and signed on behalf of Portugal.

Portuguese Ambassador Pereira standing behind President Truman during the signing of NATO​

As the decade ended, Ambassador Pereira’s diplomatic skills were once again very much in use as he defended the Portuguese annexation of Spanish African colonies in return for forgiving all of Spain’s external debt. He argued very successfully that Portugal’s offer had helped Spain much more than IMF and World Bank offer to pile on more debt while stripping Spain of same colonies. He put forth several arguments and challenges to Americans to visit the former Spanish colonies and see how the Portuguese were investing and developing the territories.

All during the same time Ambassador Pereira defense of Portuguese political situation he repeatedly pointed out the contrast to the plight of African Americans who did not have right to vote in their own country where as in Portugal and its overseas provinces Africans and other non-Europeans were gaining new rights and opportunities denied to the African Americans. At same time he put forth that Portugal was doing as much or more that US to help lift the world out of poverty, eradicate disease and establish order in world. As Communism threat grew and Americans became more alarmed Ambassador Pereira portrayed Portugal as a natural ally of the free world and US against the communist threat. When news of communist spies in the US provided Soviets with nuclear and other technology the Portuguese made a point of portraying Portuguese own internal struggle and fight against communist and their allies as example to the Americans (not that they followed Portuguese example but many Americans sensed that maybe the Portuguese had a point).

All during his time in Washington the Portuguese Ambassador lobbied unsuccessfully for the American government to lift its economic trade restrictions against Portugal. In the late 1948 as the extent of Portuguese industrialization and development became evident, he portrayed the development as good for the US and the development of the free world. When criticism was levied by some against Britain for its part in the industrialization the Portuguese blamed US government for its policies and argued that the US continued to support and promote American industry to the detriment of British companies and it was completely within their right to develop new markets and expand their operations.

Britain and British Empire​

At the end of WW2, the Portuguese government began a systematic review of its diplomatic corps with the liberation of many European countries. Many junior diplomats especially from established embassies were taped to fill the many new positions. This left the Portuguese Embassy in London in need of a strong and experienced individual, luckily for the government its current ambassador since 1943 Domingos de Sousa Holstein Beck had skillfully represented Portugal both to the British and the strong Allied presence in the city.

This was a delicate time for the Portuguese as negotiations between Portugal and Britain regarding the Portuguese-British debt and the need for British assistance in industrialization of the country was foremost on the duties of the Ambassador. Unfortunately, due to the delicate situation of the Portuguese American relationship he was also called upon to keep the British on Portuguese side which in the after-war environment proved to be a full-time job.

The Portuguese had two major things in its favor, the perilous situation of British finances and the strong trade between the British and Portuguese provided Britain with much needed revenue and more importantly economic activity. Ambassador Holstein would utilize these factors to portrait Portuguese-British economic interaction in a very beneficial light. When Britain introduced rationing to deal with the dire economic situation the Portuguese assistance increased with additional export of wheat and beef to Britain.

While Portuguese trade with Britain was public knowledge the level of assistance and debt relief was kept confidential and many British and other countries were baffled at the British accommodation of Portuguese military purchases, acceptance of British companies’ sales and investment to Portugal. But more startling to many was the British support for Portugal in diplomatic spats with USA, Australia, South Africa and even in Indian Subcontinent where Portuguese involvement in terms of supplying several warring factions.[2]

Relations between South Africa and Britain suffered as a result of the British stand with the Portuguese. Anger in Pretoria regarding British sale of advanced military hardware including aircraft carrier and other ships, a wide array of planes and tanks made the South African government angry. This was especially true after the proclamation of the Portuguese Federation and the granting of citizenship rights and privileges to all Africans living in Portuguese overseas provinces.

The proclamation of the Portuguese Federation caught the British government and public by surprise and Ambassador Holstein held many discussions and was featured in many public and private lectures regarding the Federation. Opinion in Britain and British Empire was split on the Federation with some seeing it as a means to continue the suppression of non-Europeans while other especially the conservatives as a sell out and something that needed to be avoided by British at all costs.

One of the most controversial British government decisions was the authorization of the Portuguese to become partners in several British business enterprises, of which the investment in Bristol Aircraft manufacturer was foremost. Bristol at the time was involved in the development of long-range plane. When the British government did nothing to stop Portuguese investment there was many in opposition and elsewhere who cried of government sellout. That these investments made the projects both cheaper for the British government and guaranteed their success did not enter into the oppositions criticism.

[1] See Post War Years 1945 – 1949, Politics, Changing World – USA.

[2] After the war the Australian government pressed the British to exert pressure on the Portuguese to withdraw from the occupation of several former Dutch East Indies islands. Unfortunately, as civil war progressed and presence of communism in the East Indies intensified the Australian attitude towards the Portuguese warmed up as they became seen as an ally against the communist threat.



Foreign Relations with other countries would form a great part of the Portuguese character, for how they were perceived and treated would be portraited in Portuguese culture and manner the government and people reacted to the outside world. The Portuguese had been through so much that at the end of the 1940s they themselves hardly recognized themselves. Gone was the person who doubted their place in the world and who thought other countries were better than them. Replaced by a people who believed they were equal to any in the world and were embarking on a new path which earmarked the Portuguese at the forefront of a new era. Facing the Portuguese were the country's two main allies and also adversaries who were baffled at what to make of the Portuguese and their impossible journey and new endeavor. The ones who the Portuguese hoped to bring on their side the Americans only begrudgingly allied themselves with the Portuguese due to the new communist danger gripping the world. The British were in shock, more shell shocked than anything else. For while the had survived the war their place in it was forever changed. A new master had emerged who demanded adherence to its will. Meanwhile a country whom the British had for centuries take for granted had out of the blue emerged with renewed strength and spirit who while helping the British demanded in return a new partnership. One the British were reluctant and unsure how to proceed. Questions / Comments?


In two weeks on December 8 we will return with 2nd post on Foreign Affairs.

 

[Boneheaded_Bookkeeper]

Nice update. British are super confused, America is cranky, and the rest of the world is wondering what crazy Portugal is going to do next.

Does Portugal have any plans for Japan? Granted, things are tense with the US right now so no major interactions involving occupied Japan would be wise, but maybe kind of cultural event regarding Nagasaki could happen in the future? Portugal were the first European nation to have contact with the Japanese and had a major impact on the city of Nagasaki.

 

[Lusitania]

Nice update. British are super confused, America is cranky, and the rest of the world is wondering what crazy Portugal is going to do next.

Does Portugal have any plans for Japan? Granted, things are tense with the US right now so no major interactions involving occupied Japan would be wise, but maybe kind of cultural event regarding Nagasaki could happen in the future? Portugal were the first European nation to have contact with the Japanese and had a major impact on the city of Nagasaki.

Yes the proclamation of the Portuguese Federation really threw everyone for a loop. Think about this, a European country out of blue announces that it going to grant all it’s colonial people (Africans, Indians and Asians) equal status as Europeans and grant them citizenship and allow them to vote. Yeah portuguese must of gotten their aguardente and water mixed up. We need to remember the times, Europeans are not treating any non Europeans as equals. In the USA segregation is in full force in southern states while northern states only pay lip service to equality.

so how the Portuguese get to this situation? Desperation!! The US was adamant about decolonization. The Europeans were granting their colonies in Ásia independence, the Americas had been “freed” over 100 years. So what were the Portuguese options?

1. gone the SA route,
2. middle ground and tried to hold on to the colonies.

But we talking about some very developed real estate already and in both European part of Portugal and overseas provinces there were a few million Africans, Indians and Asians that had already been granted Portuguese nationality. The cats out of the bag as they say. So what were the Portuguese to do? Reverse course, go for half measures or just go all in?

As we can see the choices were already limited and the federation route one that made most sense.

So far we have only outlined US and British reaction. We will discuss the rest of Europe, Africa, Asia and South America next update.

note: Japan was at least till 1960s following US lead and not willing to stick its neck out but special link to Nagasaki makes sense.

 

[Lusitania]

1940 – 1949 (conclusion)

The Post War Years 1945 – 1949 (conclusion)

Foreign Affairs (2 of 2)

France and Rest of Europe​

With the liberation of France, the Portuguese recalled Augusto de Castro to become Portugal’s Ambassador till 1947. During this time Portugal enjoyed a warm relationship with France in part due to the Portugal’s participation alongside French troops in liberating southern France. While Portuguese sales of oil and other products were re-started there was little to no interest in the ongoing situation in Portugal. This was more a product of French own political situation with unstable French governments being unable to last for longer than 6 months. The tough economic situation of the country and need to spend a huge amount of resources and funds to combat the insurgency in French Indochina also featured very prominently on French government and public minds.

In 1948 two major events brought the French out of their complacency; the outbreak of the Iron Curtain Crises brought communist threat close to the French border. The involvement of French forces in fighting the communist insurgency in Germany angered many communists in the country and France suffered greatly in the Christmas bombing with 10 different churches targeted in France alone. The attacks were a huge wakeup call for the French and thousands of French communists were arrested in the days following the attack. Several battles between communist militants and French security forces in several cities made many in France very scared. Over a dozen bomb making cells and hundreds of weapons confiscated. In the end while the communist party was not outlawed, association and membership in the communist party was grounds for dismissal from jobs and even losing housing.

While all this was happening the declaration of the Portuguese Federation made many suddenly notice the Portuguese for first time. Stories of the development, industrialization and changes happening in Portugal and its overseas provinces filled many pages but Portugal for the remainder of the 1940s continued a simple curiosity as the French dealt with their own problems.

In 1947 Antonio Alves who had been Portugal’s representative in Paris during the German occupation was appointed as Portugal’s French Ambassador and it was his job to show Portuguese support for French struggle with communism and also to both defend and promote the Portuguese Federation.

As for rest of Europe the Portuguese attempted to have a good diplomatic and trade relationship with all non-communist countries. In most cases it achieved its goal with Sweden being the one that strengthened it economic relationship the most. As for the Netherlands, Portugal’s relationship was very strained due to Portuguese occupation of several Dutch East Indies islands at end of war. The Portuguese Ambassador was called on more than one occasion to the Dutch Prime Minister’s office. The Dutch gave the Portuguese six (6) months to withdraw from all Dutch territory. Unfortunately, the Dutch soon became embroiled in a very long and costly war of Independence in Dutch East Indies fighting not one but several independence movements. By end of 1947 the Dutch had lost the political will to try and maintain Dutch East Indies and instead worked towards independence for several groups and assisting in combating communist rebels. Portuguese occupation became a simmering point of resentment but foremost for the Dutch was to achieve a political solution in the East Indies. The proclamation of the Portuguese Federation was actually viewed negatively by most Dutch who had by 1949 given up on all colonialism. The Dutch viewed it as an attempt by the Portuguese to continue their colonial empire.

United Nations​

In 1945, the Allies and Russia formed the United Nations as a means to prevent future wars and to provide nations with a forum to discuss problems. Portugal was one of the 52 founding member states. The five permanent members of Security Council (US, Soviet Union, UK, France and China) all had a veto, a fact that the Portuguese government did not agree with. But like the decision of joining the war the Portuguese government felt more could be gained by being part of it than not joining.

At the start of the UN the Portuguese presence at the UN was considered a secondary posting, there to safeguard Portuguese interests, that changed in 1948 when the Portuguese raised a lot of eyebrows and even offended a few countries by the appointment of its first Portuguese African diplomat. Dr Juvenal Antonio Lopes da Costa Cabral from the Portuguese overseas province of Cape Verde was appointed Portugal’s ambassador to the UN. With consultations underway in Portugal and its overseas provinces (colonies) on forming the Portuguese Federation the Portuguese government decided to showcase a more inclusive face of the Portuguese government. It was Ambassador Cabral’s job to both promote the Federation as well as to defend its actions both internally as well as externally. One of the most difficult tasks and issues that arose in late 1949 was the Portuguese annexation of Spanish African colonies. Many countries condemned the Portuguese action but Ambassador Cabral re-iterated Portuguese position that it was fulfilling its duties to develop these regions while at same time alleviating the economic and fiscal situation of its neighbor Spain. As the 1940s came to a close though Portugal faced uncertainty and possible UN sanctions over the actions.

Dr Juvenal Antonio Lopes da Costa Cabral
Portuguese Ambassador to UN 1948 - 1952​

Brazil, Argentina & Latin America ​

In 1945, the Brazilian Estado Novo under President Vargas was overthrown by the military and in subsequent elections Brazil came under the leadership of General Eurico Gaspar Dutra. Portuguese-Brazilian relationships under President Dutra stayed the same as under Vargas until 1947 when circumstances brought him and a large contingent of Brazilians to Portugal in 1947 to visit Fatima on the 30th anniversary of the apparition of Virgen Mary to three shepherds. While in Portugal he got to witness the development of Portugal and left the country with great admiration. In 1948 President Dutra visited US seeking investment and support from US and IMF. Unhappy with the terms offered he sailed to Lisbon and while the Portuguese were nowhere as powerful or rich as the US, they offered Brazil loans and a line of credit to purchase Portuguese goods. This signaling new and closer relationship between the two Portuguese speaking countries.[1]

Meanwhile Portugal’s relationship with Argentina grew stronger with the election of Juan Domingo Perón in 1946. He like the Portuguese Estado Novo government espoused Corporatism for Argentina and trade with Portugal grew and relationship warmed up. The relationship between Argentina and Portugal became critical to Argentina when US government moved against Argentina due to its implementation of Corporatism and Portugal once more became Argentina largest agricultural purchaser. In 1947 to cement the relationship Peron visited Lisbon as part of his European visit. Portugal provided Argentina with a market for its agricultural products and continued to be the country’s main oil supplier. Argentina like Brazil also became an important market for Portuguese manufactured goods.

As for the remainder of Latin America following the end of the war Portugal began paying considerably more attention both politically and economically. Portuguese diplomats tried to increase Portugal’s profile as well as trade between Portugal and Latin American countries. The two major issues encountered by Portugal in dealing with these countries was that the majority of the countries looked at Portugal as a backwards and underdeveloped country. Secondly the America’s were considered by the US as their home turf.

Africa​

In 1946, the Portuguese Africa development and settlement policies alarmed South Africa government and business community. When the Portuguese – British military deal was announced, and the Portuguese increased its military strength in Africa, South Africa became angry and demanded that British cancel the deal. When the British refused relations between South Africa and Britain suffered. In 1948 the Nationalist Party won the elections and Daniel Malan became the Prime Minister. Prime Minister Malan made several negative comments about the Portuguese comparing the government of Portugal to primates when the Portuguese Federation was announced. This was followed by Portuguese increase in duties on South African goods causing loss of business for many South African firms, some of whom lost half their market.[2] Nationalist Party with their majority reacted to the Portuguese actions by limiting European immigration afraid they would be supplanted like the Portuguese were in Portuguese Africa. In addition, they implementation Apartheid, stripping the Africans of their right to live in majority of South Africa and restricting them to black African communities, in 1948 while Portugal was looking at increasing the Franchise of Portuguese citizenship provided a very different path forward for the two most advanced countries on the continent.

In 1949 anti-British attitude amongst the Afrikaners had surged due to perceived impression that Britain cared more for the Portuguese than South Africa and the Prime Minister Malan introduced legislation to sever South Africa’s relationship with British and British Empire and become a Republic. As the country prepared for the referendum it witnessed the start of the African 1949 recession as companies that had borrowed heavily to expand were forced to lay off many of their workers and reorganize if not declare bankruptcy as they were cut off from Portuguese market which until 1948 had accounted for up to half their business. Confidence in the National Party waned, and they lost the referendum by less than 1%. While South Africa remained in the commonwealth and tied to Britain it refused to attend any commonwealth meetings. Emigration was stopped and it entered into a period of isolation while at same time promoting a strong Afrikaner identity and large families (Afrikaner).

The rest of Africa was either under British rule or French. These two countries were engaged in a process that went contrary to the Portuguese plan. They were in the midst of granting their African colonies first self-rule with the eventual goal of them becoming independent countries. Portugal looked upon the process with both fear and apprehension for fear the eventual independent African countries would be hostile to Portuguese presence.

Asia ​

Following the surrender of Japan and end of WWII Portugal moved to re-establish diplomatic and trade relations with the two other independent Asian countries China and Thailand. Complicating the situation was the Chinese civil war between the nationalist and communists. The Portuguese sided with the nationalist and provided it with weapons and other support but unfortunately the Nationalist were driven out of mainland China and retreated to islands of Taiwan and Hainan. There protected by the US Navy the nationalist forces were able to regroup. This left the Portuguese Macau situated against Communist China. Luckily for Portugal communist China left Macau alone more out of fear of the US and respect for Britain who continued governing Hong Kong than anything Portugal did. At end of the decade the Portuguese re-established their embassy in Taipei while had no diplomatic relationship with communist China.

Portuguese re-opened their embassy in Bangkok Thailand in 1946 and worked on establishing warm relationship with the Thai government and increase trade between the two countries. Meanwhile the rest of Asia also witnessed massive changes as European countries moved to provide their Asian colonies with independence some of whom like former British India and Dutch East Indies erupted into civil war. The other major flash point was French Indochina where local forces in the French colony fought the French for independence.

[1] See 1940 – 1949, Post War Years 1945 – 1949, World, South America - Brazil

[2] During the 1930s and 1940s many South African firms had benefitted from Portuguese economic expansion and expanded their operations to meet Portuguese demands. The loss of substantial portion of their market resulted in many firms collapsing and downsizing or going into bankruptcy. Loss of jobs and decreased business environment was a direct result of Portuguese actions.


Foreign Relations with other countries would form a great part of the Portuguese character, for how they were perceived and treated would be portraited in Portuguese culture and manner the government and people reacted to the outside world. The Portuguese had been through so much that at the end of the 1940s they themselves hardly recognized themselves. Gone was the person who doubted their place in the world and who thought other countries were better than them. Replaced by a people who believed they were equal to any in the world and were embarking on a new path which earmarked the Portuguese at the forefront of a new era. We roundoff the foreign relations with a small recap of the Portuguese relations with remaining Europe, South America and Africa/Asia. Also remember for better understanding of the situations in India, Asia, Africa, South America read the world section. One special note was Portuguese involvement in the UN and the appointment of Dr. Cabral (who some may know was the father of Cape Verde and Guinea liberation leader iOTL. Here the father's appointment to New York and young Cabral view of the segregation and policies in the US would make him realize the unique situation of the Africans in Portuguese Federation. When Dr. Cabral arrived in New York he was only the 2nd African representing a country at United Nations, but the only one representing an industrial nation. Questions / Comments?


In two weeks on December 22 we will return with the start of the 1950s.

 

[Sceonn]

What's the point of South Africa refusing European Immigration? Doesn't their situation demands greater White presence? Also how do African Americans see the Federation, esp. Dr. Cabral's position? Communist victory in China means the US would never allow India to go the same way. And the Korean War may never start either with both a more weakened USSR and China due to Portuguese support of their enemies during their respective wars and a more belligerent USA spooked by the spread of communism in India.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

What's the point of South Africa refusing European Immigration?

Happened OTL under the National Party.

 

[Lusitania]

What's the point of South Africa refusing European Immigration? Doesn't their situation demands greater White presence? Also how do African Americans see the Federation, esp. Dr. Cabral's position?

Happened OTL under the National Party.

Your question has great merit for it seems a contradiction in terms of objective. If the aim of the Nationalist White South African government was a white ruled SA it only makes sense that they increase the immigration of people from Britain and rest of Europe to achieve the objective. Unfortunately there was also a nationalistic element to that goal, an Afrikaner nationalist goal. They viewed the immigration of other whites a dilution of that dream. The Afrikaners had been fighting a dual war for survival since the British had landed in Cape at beginning of 19th century. The dominance over the blacks had led unfortunately to conquest by Britain. The Afrikaners did not want a British or English South Africa they wanted an Afrikaner South Africa.

Across the border in Portuguese Africa during the 1940s, the South Africans saw cultural "anarchy" that was happening as the "true Portuguese" were being overwhelmed by the immigration of other whites, Asians and others. While it was true that the Portuguese government enforced "Portuguese" on everyone. This included mandatory Portuguese schooling for all immigrants including the outlawing of schooling on any other language than Portuguese, prohibition of any signs other than Portuguese, mandatory adult portuguese language class for all immigrants under 60 and voluntary for those over. (this meant that religious schools which were allowed had to be in Portuguese and using Portuguese approved curriculum. No home schooling) Even with these measures it would be hard to hear Portuguese at times in stores or restaurants in "German town" or "Spanish village" or other ethnic neighborhoods of many growing ethnic communities. We could be scared for the Portuguese identity were it not for the language of the children who almost seclusively spoke Portuguese in playgrounds and together only reverting to speak their native language to the adults and even then many would respond in Portuguese.

These issues, no different in Portugal than in Canada, USA or other emigrant country scared the Afrikaner for it emphasized the loss of their power in a pluralistic white controlled South Africa.

 

[TheKutKu]

It’s going to be interesting to see how Portugal manages to solve the racial inequality question in the african settler colonies, it’s one thing to have an integrated, educated urban mestizo/Black population which the state manage to woo enough that they don’t feel like supporting the poorer black African. It’s another to actually massively reduce poverty and inequalities to the million of susbsitance farmer, poor urban worker, and any effort to change the status quo will meet strong opposition to the white settlers and their descendant, which is normal, since a fair redistribution of wealth would hurt them.

I just don’t see how this is going to end well in the long term, at worst it’s going to be a South Africa with just a bit more whites as % of the populaiton but still massive inequalities, criminality and poverty in slums, at best some New Caledonia style situation; where the whole thing somewhat work, built on an uneasy compromise but there are still some history of low level fighting and mistrust between the communities and the settlers/native group don’t mix often.

Also illegal immigration is going to be a huge problem, these thousand of km long borders in Africa will be porous, and successful Rhodesia/Zimbabwe or Tanzania may make this less bad, I doubt the DRC/Belgian Congo successor can ever be developped enough that there won’t be millions of migrants


IMO this is where the federation will either make or break, become a great power or succumb as a foolish imperialistic scheme

 

[Sceonn]

will meet strong opposition to the white settlers

It's not a democracy, you're either with the program or you're an enemy. Also most of those settlers will be immigrants.

 

[Boneheaded_Bookkeeper]

Nice update. I like how Portugal is finding itself very much alone in the late 40's. Besides Britain, what's left of Germany, and maybe Spain, Portugal is very dependent on its own wits to survive this new bipolar world. Makes for good drama.

Not sure if it will ever get that bad, but a limited conflict between Portugal and South Africa will make an interesting stage for the time period. If it happens, I wonder if the USA or Soviet Union will even get involved? It's not like the Federation or South Africa are that particularly popular with anyone in the world right now. Portugal is an "upstart" that doesn't know its place and South Africa is an brutal racist state with their apartheid system. Would people just bring out popcorn and watch the violence unfold?

I know you'll probably get to this at some point, but eventually the Portuguese will begin to clamor for more democracy. The population of a nation can tolerate nasty conditions during times of crisis, but if there's no immediate danger then they will begin to resent heavy-handed government. Portugal was in a bad spot for centuries before the 1920's and since then they've made amazing progress. They have a long way to go, but like you said, they barely recognize themselves anymore.

But the negative side of this growth is that they're going want more of the good things of life. This newly formed Federation is already doing a pretty good job of that with vastly improved means to acquire food, medicine, jobs, and new products made from all the new industry like cars and radios. However, they're going to want more say on how the government runs things. Dealing with a absolutist king is one thing, but you have to admit that a shadowy cabal of technocrats, no matter how effective, are not exactly that endearing for the masses either.

Does the Portuguese government have an eventual plan to become a more open republic, or are they simply building more "reeducation camps" for the thousands of political prisoners and dissenters that they will be processing every year for the next few decades?

 

[TheKutKu]

It's not a democracy, you're either with the program or you're an enemy. Also most of those settlers will be immigrants.

My comment was mostly refering to the long term, at least after 1970, the current trend is of increasing political liberalisation, so it will likely be a democracy of some sort, and these questions of economic, opportunities inequalities will stay and be central to the federation.

 

[Sceonn]

My comment was mostly refering to the long term, at least after 1970, the current trend is of increasing political liberalisation, so it will likely be a democracy of some sort, and these questions of economic, opportunities inequalities will stay and be central to the federation.

With the Youth program I don't see such deep divisions lasting the Boomers' generation.

 

[Lusitania]

Also how do African Americans see the Federation, esp. Dr. Cabral's position?

The American view of Dr Cabral appointment was one of disbelief and confusion. His appointment was in some ways also controversial in Portugal for he was handpicked for it without any prior diplomatic experience and in some ways he was viewed as ”prop” at time of his appointment.

The appointment of Dr Cabral in 1948 allowed him get used to his role without major controversies back home. He represented Portuguese interests during the ongoing iron curtain crises in a professional manner. In 1949 when the Portuguese Federation was announced was when he rose in his role both visually as well as diplomatically represented the country very well. Unfortunately for Dr Cabral the announcement of the Federation made his presence seem as threat to some in the US. For he became both a symbol of what the Portuguese were promising with the federation and also a threat of what it could mean.

Communist victory in China means the US would never allow India to go the same way. And the Korean War may never start either with both a more weakened USSR and China due to Portuguese support of their enemies during their respective wars and a more belligerent USA spooked by the spread of communism in India.

You are correct that the civil war in Indian subcontinent and in former Dutch East Indies did shape American foreign policy. In both cases they became the Indian and Indonesia governments’ main backer following 1948. That being said by then the cast had already been set and neither US backed government were able to achieve their objective of uniting the respective former European colony into single country. (More on both in the 1950s World section).

As far as communist weakness and political expansion ambition was concerned in 1950 there was little difference compared to iotl.

Communist North Korea still had goal of uniting Korean Peninsula. Mao was still believer in spreading communism by force and Stalin fears of west had been tempered by Soviet own ability to explode nuclear bomb.

That communism had suffered a setback in Europe was viewed in Moscow as a temporary setback and not indicative of communist fortunes in the world.

Therefore with all these the Korean War will be inevitable. Just like iotl the Soviet veto will be absent from the UN during its deliberations and lead to UN intervention. We must remember that this was 1950 and not 1960 and the Cold War was just beginning with little to no time between the US intervention in Europe and the rapidly shifting moment to Asia.

 

[Lusitania]

It’s going to be interesting to see how Portugal manages to solve the racial inequality question in the african settler colonies, it’s one thing to have an integrated, educated urban mestizo/Black population which the state manage to woo enough that they don’t feel like supporting the poorer black African. It’s another to actually massively reduce poverty and inequalities to the million of susbsitance farmer, poor urban worker, and any effort to change the status quo will meet strong opposition to the white settlers and their descendant, which is normal, since a fair redistribution of wealth would hurt them.

I just don’t see how this is going to end well in the long term, at worst it’s going to be a South Africa with just a bit more whites as % of the populaiton but still massive inequalities, criminality and poverty in slums, at best some New Caledonia style situation; where the whole thing somewhat work, built on an uneasy compromise but there are still some history of low level fighting and mistrust between the communities and the settlers/native group don’t mix often.

Also illegal immigration is going to be a huge problem, these thousand of km long borders in Africa will be porous, and successful Rhodesia/Zimbabwe or Tanzania may make this less bad, I doubt the DRC/Belgian Congo successor can ever be developped enough that there won’t be millions of migrants


IMO this is where the federation will either make or break, become a great power or succumb as a foolish imperialistic scheme

It's not a democracy, you're either with the program or you're an enemy. Also most of those settlers will be immigrants.

These are valid comments and many believed that would be the case. This was the strategy that Rhodesia tried in the 1950s unfortunately it neither provided non whites with equality and in minds of many whites living in region gave too much.

secondly as Sceonn pointed out we have a situation of limited democracy. We will discuss politics extensively in the upcoming decades. Politics over the decades will change and new generation of leaders will emerge. The old stock will slowly make way for new leaders be they black, Asian or European.

now regarding attitudes of old “Portuguese European settler” whose attitudes of non-Europeans were similar to the Afrikaners of SA. They are a shrinking minority whose opinion are less and less important. Consider this that there are over 1 million Europeans in Ultramar provinces by 1950, 80% of which have been there less than 10 years. They live in growing towns and cities and their interaction with non-Europeans Will not be as bad as the “old stock”. Now please remember we are talking about 1950s and there were prejudices between different tribes and different ethnic groups.

So how will the Portuguese handle the race and development issues. We have millions of people living in the federation who do not even speak Portuguese. We have remote areas that have no modern amenities. Will they continue speaking their language, will modernization reach them? These questions will define the success of the Federation.

What I can say is that we need to think outside the box in regards to the future of Federation and to realize that in a country of multiple ethnic groups and races we cannot expect a European ruled and dominated Federation. In fact I have provided a sneak peak on who becomes the Federation prime minister in 1980s and he is not European. (I will address Portuguese youth in next post for it brings up a very important aspect of the thinking that Portuguese grew up with.)

iOTL we look at Communist China today and view how a totalitarian regime can continue to survive while espousing economic progress and development. There were a few other examples of similar strategy some success such as Vietnam which is trying to copy Chinese example and others failure such as Soviet Union. Why cant the Federation be the shinning example in this world? no reason and one which I will be working with as we go forward. Does that mean we will not have conflict and that there will not be race issues. Heck there are race and ethnic tensions in many of the current African, European and American countries so there will continue to exist in the Federation but it should not be any different (should be better) than what is happening in Canada, or Portugal today.

One more word there is no such thing as slums in the Federation these were eliminated with housing and health investments, education and enforcement of laws.

As for illegal emigration yes it could be one that would become an even greater problem than in Europe or in the US. How the Federation handles that will be an test to its success or failure. For nothing speaking of hypocrisy and resentment by people if the dream the government is selling is fake. While I will not go into details regarding the immigration issue today since there are whole future posts regarding in in following decades.

 

[Lusitania]

Nice update. I like how Portugal is finding itself very much alone in the late 40's. Besides Britain, what's left of Germany, and maybe Spain, Portugal is very dependent on its own wits to survive this new bipolar world. Makes for good drama.

Not sure if it will ever get that bad, but a limited conflict between Portugal and South Africa will make an interesting stage for the time period. If it happens, I wonder if the USA or Soviet Union will even get involved? It's not like the Federation or South Africa are that particularly popular with anyone in the world right now. Portugal is an "upstart" that doesn't know its place and South Africa is an brutal racist state with their apartheid system. Would people just bring out popcorn and watch the violence unfold?

I know you'll probably get to this at some point, but eventually the Portuguese will begin to clamor for more democracy. The population of a nation can tolerate nasty conditions during times of crisis, but if there's no immediate danger then they will begin to resent heavy-handed government. Portugal was in a bad spot for centuries before the 1920's and since then they've made amazing progress. They have a long way to go, but like you said, they barely recognize themselves anymore.

But the negative side of this growth is that they're going want more of the good things of life. This newly formed Federation is already doing a pretty good job of that with vastly improved means to acquire food, medicine, jobs, and new products made from all the new industry like cars and radios. However, they're going to want more say on how the government runs things. Dealing with a absolutist king is one thing, but you have to admit that a shadowy cabal of technocrats, no matter how effective, are not exactly that endearing for the masses either.

Does the Portuguese government have an eventual plan to become a more open republic, or are they simply building more "reeducation camps" for the thousands of political prisoners and dissenters that they will be processing every year for the next few decades?

Thanks for the comments and questions and I will try to answer them without giving away too much of future posts.

At the end of the 1940s the Portuguese found themselves in many ways similar to iotl. Politically they were isolated but the Cold War provided them a lifeline since the Americans were willing to work with any regime that opposed communism. Economically iOTL the Portuguese government limited importing things and development was very slow since Salazar refused to borrow and wanted portugal to live within its means. Also in 1950 Salazar still clung on to the idealism of masses controlled by the elites. Slowly as economy grew and new leaders appeared, the country was opened up to foreign investment and both domestic and foreign investment and development accelerated but by then it was too little too late.

iTTL we have several factors in the Portuguese favor. It’s economy is already bigger in 1950 than in 1970s, its economic development and industry already far surpass current industry. Foreign investment is encouraged and supported. Industrialization is mandated.

iOTL one of the limitations of the Portuguese industry was that it was controlled by about 40 families. iTTL we have brought in legislation to limit control of specific industries such as banking, introduced mutual funds that have become a major investment tool for many people to invest in industry and economy. This money has flowed into the stock market and it is much bigger and a driving force in the development of the country. As stated before the country was opened to foreign investment. Many of the German firms started in 1930s still exist and have grown, British and even Swedish firms are deeply entrenched in the country economy. During war these companies cut off from their mother country expanded their operations by producing more of their components in the country.

Now in the 1950s will they and new companies will be both encouraged and allowed to expand, hopefully able to produce the goods the people need. The government will pressure them to do so. It wants a home grown industry producing products and wants to limit imports to items country can’t produce.

It will be crucial that industry is able to create jobs for the tens of thousands of people who will flock to cities and towns as country modernizes. These places will need to build infrastructure to support the growing population including housing, schools, recreation and health facilities. Huge tasks and one that cannot be done incorrectly if the government wants people to be happy with its management of the country.

This leads us to the political situation. In late 1940s political parties were allowed to form, there were several major restriction but by end of 1940s there are opposition parties in Portugal and the people could theoretically vote for opposition parties but the ranked election ballot and control of the appointed deputies will give national union a head start.

Eventually there will be a clamor for more changes, more liberation. The re-education camps will not be for those who oppose the government. That is tolerated, it’s for those who advocate actions against the country (such as anarchists, those advocating religious intolerance or god forbid independence)

will the National Union party be able to reform itself and modernize? Those are things we will be examining in future.

As for government directing economy, Portuguese federation is a market economy and the government role is to provide guidance.