Nice update. I like how Portugal is finding itself very much alone in the late 40's. Besides Britain, what's left of Germany, and maybe Spain, Portugal is very dependent on its own wits to survive this new bipolar world. Makes for good drama.
Not sure if it will ever get that bad, but a limited conflict between Portugal and South Africa will make an interesting stage for the time period. If it happens, I wonder if the USA or Soviet Union will even get involved? It's not like the Federation or South Africa are that particularly popular with anyone in the world right now. Portugal is an "upstart" that doesn't know its place and South Africa is an brutal racist state with their apartheid system. Would people just bring out popcorn and watch the violence unfold?
I know you'll probably get to this at some point, but eventually the Portuguese will begin to clamor for more democracy. The population of a nation can tolerate nasty conditions during times of crisis, but if there's no immediate danger then they will begin to resent heavy-handed government. Portugal was in a bad spot for centuries before the 1920's and since then they've made amazing progress. They have a long way to go, but like you said, they barely recognize themselves anymore.
But the negative side of this growth is that they're going want more of the good things of life. This newly formed Federation is already doing a pretty good job of that with vastly improved means to acquire food, medicine, jobs, and new products made from all the new industry like cars and radios. However, they're going to want more say on how the government runs things. Dealing with a absolutist king is one thing, but you have to admit that a shadowy cabal of technocrats, no matter how effective, are not exactly that endearing for the masses either.
Does the Portuguese government have an eventual plan to become a more open republic, or are they simply building more "reeducation camps" for the thousands of political prisoners and dissenters that they will be processing every year for the next few decades?
Thanks for the comments and questions and I will try to answer them without giving away too much of future posts.
At the end of the 1940s the Portuguese found themselves in many ways similar to iotl. Politically they were isolated but the Cold War provided them a lifeline since the Americans were willing to work with any regime that opposed communism. Economically iOTL the Portuguese government limited importing things and development was very slow since Salazar refused to borrow and wanted portugal to live within its means. Also in 1950 Salazar still clung on to the idealism of masses controlled by the elites. Slowly as economy grew and new leaders appeared, the country was opened up to foreign investment and both domestic and foreign investment and development accelerated but by then it was too little too late.
iTTL we have several factors in the Portuguese favor. It’s economy is already bigger in 1950 than in 1970s, its economic development and industry already far surpass current industry. Foreign investment is encouraged and supported. Industrialization is mandated.
iOTL one of the limitations of the Portuguese industry was that it was controlled by about 40 families. iTTL we have brought in legislation to limit control of specific industries such as banking, introduced mutual funds that have become a major investment tool for many people to invest in industry and economy. This money has flowed into the stock market and it is much bigger and a driving force in the development of the country. As stated before the country was opened to foreign investment. Many of the German firms started in 1930s still exist and have grown, British and even Swedish firms are deeply entrenched in the country economy. During war these companies cut off from their mother country expanded their operations by producing more of their components in the country.
Now in the 1950s will they and new companies will be both encouraged and allowed to expand, hopefully able to produce the goods the people need. The government will pressure them to do so. It wants a home grown industry producing products and wants to limit imports to items country can’t produce.
It will be crucial that industry is able to create jobs for the tens of thousands of people who will flock to cities and towns as country modernizes. These places will need to build infrastructure to support the growing population including housing, schools, recreation and health facilities. Huge tasks and one that cannot be done incorrectly if the government wants people to be happy with its management of the country.
This leads us to the political situation. In late 1940s political parties were allowed to form, there were several major restriction but by end of 1940s there are opposition parties in Portugal and the people could theoretically vote for opposition parties but the ranked election ballot and control of the appointed deputies will give national union a head start.
Eventually there will be a clamor for more changes, more liberation. The re-education camps will not be for those who oppose the government. That is tolerated, it’s for those who advocate actions against the country (such as anarchists, those advocating religious intolerance or god forbid independence)
will the National Union party be able to reform itself and modernize? Those are things we will be examining in future.
As for government directing economy, Portuguese federation is a market economy and the government role is to provide guidance.