I think the dates on the Type 209s are off. The Salta was completed in 72 and commissioned in 73. The San Luis is showing completed in 77 and commissioned in 78.
This is from my copy of Jane's Fighting Ships 1986-87

Salta class.png
 
These are what I think the Buccaneer squadrons would be 1965-84 ITTL. The differences are:
  1. 800 NAS continues to February 1983 when it is effectively transferred to the RAF to become No. 208 Squadron.
  2. No. 208 Squadron, RAF isn't reformed until February 1983 - as written above it is effectively 800 NAS transferred from the RN to RAF.
  3. 802 NAS is reformed in March 1980 as the first operational Sea Harrier squadron because the 800 NAS number plate wasn't available.
Buccaneer Units 1965-84 TTL.png
 

Riain

Banned
If the Harriers were to operate from the Eagle, and that's a big if because apart from emergency circumstances it both wouldn't be required and it would interfere with the operations of conventional aircraft, they could operate perfectly well with free take-offs from Eagle's 800' long flight deck with a bit of downward thrust at the end. This is how the USMC operates their Harriers, with little trouble or restriction, there is no need to cats and wires at all.

Just for reference, here's pictures of the only time during the war Sea Harriers landed on the Fearless and Intrepid. They did a quick top up with fuel and went back to their carriers.

large_000000.jpg



Harriers conducted actual operations from Sid's Strip, which was 260m 850' long, only 50' longer than Eagle's flight deck.



images
 
Post war what aircraft could you see the British place on their CTOL carriers they are likely to build .
My choices would be as follows .
Carrier version of the Bae EAP . decent small multirole fighter , was developed into the Typhoon .
F/A18 C ……..Probably fastest to get operational
Rafale real unlikely however it is a fantastic aircraft , suffers from being expensive and very slow to be produced .
The Hawk has shown it can be turned into a carrier trainer so building a single seat radar equipped Hawk 200 series with Amraam capability is not impossible . A slightly larger version of the basic airframe with a non afterburning RB199 , folding wings and improved fuel and weapon stations would be possible . Might end up being a new Scooter .
 
I would say Phantoms through the 1980’s and then probably F/A-18C in the 1990’s. To be replaced now-ish with either F-35C or F-35B depending on the operating concept they go for.

I mean the 35B is pretty competitive against any prospective opponents and let’s you significantly cut down the operational expense of the launch platform.

Any platform constructed during the 1980’s and early 1990’s is likely approaching EOL, the aircraft are also due for replacement. Even during the 1980’s a CATOBAR carrier will have an orphan propulsion system, whereas now a replacement would be GT powered with EMCAT or EMALS.

The way I see it, operations with catapult and arrester are both more expensive and more risky then STOVL operations, while the advantages are becoming lessened with each generation. Even in ISR, there are other options then the E-2D if there was a demand.
 
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These are what I think the Buccaneer squadrons would be 1965-84 ITTL. The differences are:
  1. 800 NAS continues to February 1983 when it is effectively transferred to the RAF to become No. 208 Squadron.
The issue I have with this is that it seems to assume that Eagle just can't be run on any more after the war (retiring the Buccaneers from naval use leaves them without a strike carrier - the F-4K off Eagle probably isn't very capable at all as a strike aircraft I suspect). Technically and militarily, that's absolutely the correct decision, but in political terms it's impossible. Thatcher's government at the time had a fairly shaky popularity base (the economy was having problems, but the Falklands factor compared to the Longest Suicide Note In History gave her a landslide): scrapping the carrier which will be seen by the public as responsible for winning the war and replacing it with something seen to be smaller and cheaper will seriously undermine this. As a result I would expect Eagle to get a refit, and plans to be rapidly drawn up for a pair of replacement CTOL carriers while the MoD tries to find someone to sell off the Harrier carriers off to at a bargain price.
  • Invincible to Australia as originally planned as Sydney.
  • Illustrious to India as Viraat
  • Ark Royal may be modified with more emphasis on helicopter operations and kept on, possibly renamed something like Ocean to free up the name for a new CTOL carrier.

Post war what aircraft could you see the British place on their CTOL carriers they are likely to build .
My choices would be as follows .
Carrier version of the Bae EAP . decent small multirole fighter , was developed into the Typhoon .
F/A18 C ……..Probably fastest to get operational
Rafale real unlikely however it is a fantastic aircraft , suffers from being expensive and very slow to be produced .
The Hawk has shown it can be turned into a carrier trainer so building a single seat radar equipped Hawk 200 series with Amraam capability is not impossible . A slightly larger version of the basic airframe with a non afterburning RB199 , folding wings and improved fuel and weapon stations would be possible . Might end up being a new Scooter .
EAP/Typhoon and Rafale will end up being the same aircraft. At the time of the PoD (and of the UK almost certainly deciding to retain a CTOL carrier capability), the UK, France, Germany, Italy and Spain were all trying to agree to a common aircraft programme. Two things killed it - French insistence on a greater level of leadership, and the fact that the French were the only people who wanted a carrier capability and thus a significantly different aircraft. Here, the UK will almost certainly want their aircraft to be carrier capable too. The UK, France and Germany having the majority of the industrial capability and orders, I think that is likely to swing things so that only one aircraft is developed. If it survives the development hell which killed the Horizon frigate programme, you'll probably see it entering service in the late 1990s and in slightly larger numbers than in OTL.
 
The issue I have with this is that it seems to assume that Eagle just can't be run on any more after the war (retiring the Buccaneers from naval use leaves them without a strike carrier - the F-4K off Eagle probably isn't very capable at all as a strike aircraft I suspect). Technically and militarily, that's absolutely the correct decision, but in political terms it's impossible. Thatcher's government at the time had a fairly shaky popularity base (the economy was having problems, but the Falklands factor compared to the Longest Suicide Note In History gave her a landslide): scrapping the carrier which will be seen by the public as responsible for winning the war and replacing it with something seen to be smaller and cheaper will seriously undermine this. As a result I would expect Eagle to get a refit, and plans to be rapidly drawn up for a pair of replacement CTOL carriers while the MoD tries to find someone to sell off the Harrier carriers off to at a bargain price.
  • Invincible to Australia as originally planned as Sydney.
  • Illustrious to India as Viraat
  • Ark Royal may be modified with more emphasis on helicopter operations and kept on, possibly renamed something like Ocean to free up the name for a new CTOL carrier.
I wrote that before checking the paying off date of Hermes. For some reason I had it in my head that she was paid off at the end of 1982 and not April 1984, which by accident or design was after the 1983 General Election.

ITTL the Thatcher Government could perform the usual trick. That is in the aftermath of the war say that they have reversed the decision to pay off Eagle in 1982 and that it would be retained in service for X number of years. Then a few months after the 1983 General Election announce that circumstances beyond their control have forced them to pay the ship off straight away. E.g. the condition of the ship was worse than previously thought and/or the cost of a SLEP refit was prohibitively expensive.
 
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The issue I have with this is that it seems to assume that Eagle just can't be run on any more after the war (retiring the Buccaneers from naval use leaves them without a strike carrier - the F-4K off Eagle probably isn't very capable at all as a strike aircraft I suspect). Technically and militarily, that's absolutely the correct decision, but in political terms it's impossible. Thatcher's government at the time had a fairly shaky popularity base (the economy was having problems, but the Falklands factor compared to the Longest Suicide Note In History gave her a landslide): scrapping the carrier which will be seen by the public as responsible for winning the war and replacing it with something seen to be smaller and cheaper will seriously undermine this. As a result I would expect Eagle to get a refit, and plans to be rapidly drawn up for a pair of replacement CTOL carriers while the MoD tries to find someone to sell off the Harrier carriers off to at a bargain price.
  • Invincible to Australia as originally planned as Sydney.
  • Illustrious to India as Viraat
  • Ark Royal may be modified with more emphasis on helicopter operations and kept on, possibly renamed something like Ocean to free up the name for a new CTOL carrier.
A bit of additional information about posts 423 and 424.

The reason I showed the RAF Buccaneer squadrons in RAF Germany and the ones in Strike Command separately is that the UK based squadrons were to be used in the maritime strike role. That is effectively doing the same job as the FAA squadrons (when they existed) but from land bases instead of aircraft carriers.

Therefore:
  • No. 12 Squadron, RAF formed in 1969 effectively took the place of 803 NAS which disbanded in 1969
  • No. 208 Squadron, RAF formed in 1974 effectively took the place of 800 NAS which disbanded in 1972
  • No. 216 Squadron, RAF formed in 1980 effectively took the place of 809 NAS which disbanded in 1978
This is why I have had the RAF form 2 Buccaneer squadrons in RAF Germany as OTL, but only have 2 maritime strike squadrons formed in the UK instead of the 3 formed IOTL.
 
The E-2 weighs less then a Buccaneer, so Eagle should be able launch and recover. Will they fit in the hanger or Lift?
 
The E-2 weighs less then a Buccaneer, so Eagle should be able launch and recover. Will they fit in the hanger or Lift?
According to Norman Friedman in British Carrier Aviation the lifts on Eagle were:

54ft x 44ft and 54ft x 33ft

Her hangars were 63ft or 67ft wide depending upon the reference book, but they all say the hangars were 17ft 6in high. (Incidentally the hangars of all British aircraft carriers laid down 1942-45 had hangars that were 17ft 6in high and IIRC when Victorious was rebuilt in the 1950s the height of her hangar was increased from 16ft 0in to 17ft 6in.)

According to notes I made from Jane's All the World's Aircraft 1964-65 the dimensions of an E-2A Hawkeye were:
length 56ft 4in x folded wingspan 29ft 4in x and height 15ft 11in​

Therefore an E-2A was 2ft 4in longer than Eagle's lifts. So no.

However, the Buccaneer, Scimitar, Sea Vixen and F-4K Phantom were all longer than 54ft but had noses that folded and in some cases tails that folded too so that they could fit the lifts. It might be possible to build an E-2K Hawkeye that could fold to fit the lifts.

According An Illustrated Guide to Modern Naval Aviation and Aircraft Carriers, by John Jordan, Salamander Books, 1983 the height of an E-2C Hawkeye was 18ft 4in, which is 2ft 5in taller than the E-2A and 10 inches taller than Eagle's hangars. However, a fictional E-2K Hawkeye might be able to lower its radome to fit inside the hangars.
 
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The E-2 weighs less then a Buccaneer, so Eagle should be able launch and recover. Will they fit in the hanger or Lift?
I posted this earlier in the thread.

Notes
  1. Dimensions are in feet and inches.
  2. JAWA is short for Jane's All The World's Aircraft
  3. Jordan is An Illustrated Guide to Modern Naval Aviation by John Jordan, Salamander Books, 1983
  4. D. Wood is Project Cancelled by Derek Wood, 1986 Edition
  5. Thetford is from British Naval Aircraft Since 1912 by Owen Thetford, 1982 Edition.
  6. The folded wingspan of the SR.177 is in red because it is the wingspan including 2 tip-mounted Firestreak missiles. Furthermore AFAIK the wings on the naval SR.177 didn't fold.
  7. The folded lengths for the F-4K Phantom, Scimitar and both versions of P1154 are in red because they are guesses. I don't know what the folded lengths were. However, they had to be less than 54 feet to fit the lifts of Ark Royal and Eagle.
Naval Aircraft Dimensions in Feet Mk 2.png
 
ITTL the Thatcher Government could perform the usual trick. That is in the aftermath of the war say that they have reversed the decision to pay Eagle in 1982 and that it would be retained in service for X number of years. Then a few months after the 1983 General Election announce that circumstances beyond their control have forced them to pay the ship off straight away. E.g. the condition of the ship was worse than previously thought and/or the cost of a SLEP refit was prohibitively expensive.

This has a high level of plausibility.
 
Depends on politics vs. operational needs :

An E2K folding wing with lowered radome is potentially feasible (see side view on Wikipedia - support appears to be mounted on struts), as long as it does not foul the wings.

Alternatively, find a better aircraft and fit a modern system to it. The Skyraider AEW system was a bit long in the tooth by 1982, the Gannet airframe was a surprisingly good one for a pregnant duck.

COD for mail and beer is surely good for crew morale and efficiency.
 
Depends on politics vs. operational needs :

An E2K folding wing with lowered radome is potentially feasible (see side view on Wikipedia - support appears to be mounted on struts), as long as it does not foul the wings.

Alternatively, find a better aircraft and fit a modern system to it. The Skyraider AEW system was a bit long in the tooth by 1982, the Gannet airframe was a surprisingly good one for a pregnant duck.

COD for mail and beer is surely good for crew morale and efficiency.
Although modifying the Hawkeye (and Greyhound) to fit the lifts of Ark Royal and Eagle may be feasible the result is likely to be another "Spey Phantom." That is the modifications required and the replacement of American components with British components would produce a non-standard aircraft that would cost several times more than the original.

Also ITTL Ark Royal is still paid off in 1978 and Eagle was to go in 1983 before being put forward to 1982. The short remaining length of service and the small number of aircraft required are likely to make HM Treasury veto the E-2K and IMHO on this occasion they would be right.

I think the best that the Treasury would allow would be a SLEP for the AEW and COD Gannets that survived in the early 1970s.
 
This has a high level of plausibility.
IIRC IOTL

The plan before the 1981 Defence Review the plan was to keep all 3 Invincible class in commission at all times and that 44 Sea Harriers would be purchase to maintain 3 operational squadrons (800, 801 and 802 NAS) plus the HQ/trials and training squadron (899 NAS).

The 1981 Defence Review reduced the planned force to 2 Invincible class (with Invincible herself being sold to Australia) and the Sea Harrier purchase was reduced to the 34 aircraft already ordered to maintain 2 operational squadrons (800 and 801 NAS) plus the HQ/trials and training squadron (899 NAS).

(IOTL the third operational Sea Harrier squadron that briefly existed in 1982 was 809 NAS not 802 NAS as originally planned. IIRC the retiring First Sea Lord asked that one of the Sea Harrier squadrons use the number plate of his old FAA squadron.)

After the Falklands War the Government decided to keep Invincible, but only 2 of the 3 ships would be in commission at any one time. The third ship would be in refit/reserve.

Similarly the Sea Harrier force would remain at only 2 operational and one training squadron because a maximum of 2 aircraft carriers would be available at a time. However, in addition to the Sea Harriers ordered after the war as attrition replacements there was also an order to allow the 2 operational squadrons to be increased from 5 to 8 aircraft each. There's a post giving more details earlier in the thread.
 
Edit - This has been replaced by Post 456

This is a timeline of the OTL Phantom FG Mk 1 and F Mk 3 squadrons from March 1965 to March 1984.

767 NAS was the FAA's Phantom training squadron. After its disbandment in August 1972 the aircrew for 892 NAS did their Phantom conversion training at No. 228 Operational Conversion Unit the RAF's Phantom training formation.

Although 899 NAS never operated the Phantom IOTL it was Eagle's Sea Vixen squadron and would probably have been her Phantom squadron if plans for her "Phantomisation" had not been abandoned.

No. 43 Squadron, RAF was formed with the Phantom FG Mk 1 aircraft that would have been used to form Eagle's Phantom squadron.

IOTL the Buccaneers from the disbanded 809 NAS were used to form the short lived No. 216 Squadron in RAF Strike Command. IOTL the original plan was to form a second Phantom FG Mk 1 squadron in the RAF. However, in the end the aircraft were rotated among the existing RAF Phantom units.

No. 74 Squadron, RAF was reformed in October 1984 with ex-US Navy F-4J Phantoms, which were designated Phantom F Mk 3 in RAF service. I have put it in this table for reasons which will become apparent when I post the TTL version of the spreadsheet.

Phantom FG Mk 1 and F Mk 3 Squadrons IOTL Mk 2.png
 
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Edit - This has been replaced by Post 456

This what I think the timeline for the Phantom FG Mk 1 squadrons will be ITTL.

ITTL the RAF does not from a Phantom FG Mk 1 squadron in 1969. The aircraft won't be available because they are needed to form Eagle's Phantom squadron. The RAF could have re-formed No. 43 Squadron on Lightnings ITTL, but it didn't because the money was needed to pay the operating costs of Eagle's Phantom squadron. In common with OTL the original intention was for the RAF to form a Phantom FG Mk 1 squadron with the aircraft that formerly belonged to 892 NAS and also in common with OTL the aircraft were actually rotated among the existing RAF Phantom squadrons.

ITTL 767 NAS is still formed in January 1969 with 5 Phantoms to train the aircrew for 892 NAS. It's establishment is doubled to 10 aircraft in the course of 1971 because it will soon be training aircrew for 2 operational Phantom squadrons instead of one. It disbands in 1978 due to the retirement of Ark Royal and the disbandment of 892 NAS. From then on FAA Phantom aircrew do their conversion training with the RAF at No. 228 OCU. However, 767 NAS reforms in March 1980 as the Sea Harrier HQ, trials and training squadron because 899 NAS didn't disband in 1972 ITTL and was still in existence in 1980.

In Post 23 @fastmongrel wrote that Eagle completed her Phantomisation refit in 1973, but did not give it's start date. However, IOTL Eagle arrived at Portsmouth to pay off on 26th January 1972 so ITTL it's probably the date when she arrives at Devonport or Portsmouth to have her Phantomisation refit.

Meanwhile the 20 Phantom FG Mk 1 aircraft that were used to form No. 43 Squadron, RAF IOTL are ITTL put into storage in 1969-71 when 5 of them are used to double the strength of 767 NAS. Another 12 would be brought out of storage in 1972 to allow 899 NAS to convert from Sea Vixens to Phantoms. IOTL the squadron returned to RNAS Yeovilton on 23rd January 1972 to disband. However, ITTL the squadron arrived at Yeovilton on that date to begin its conversion to Phantoms.

ITTL 899 NAS survives as a Phantom squadron until January 1983 when it disbands. (It might be immediately be re-formed by renumbering 767 NAS, but I have not put that in the timeline below.) The aircraft and personnel of 899 NAS would immediately be transferred to the RAF which uses them to re-form No. 74 Squadron 18 months earlier than OTL. The RAF would not acquire any Phantom F Mk 3 aircraft ITTL.

Phantom FG Mk 1 and F Mk 3 Squadrons ITTL.png
 
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