Alternate Electoral Maps II

[Gentleman Biaggi]

1966 Alabama Gubernatorial Election

Albert Brewer (Democratic) 58.7%
Bull Connor (Alabama First) 41.2%

 

[Tex Arkana]

There was a similar premise on here, somewhere, with the Republicans gaining back the black vote, and Democrats returning to their previous status as the "Southern" Party. This map, I think, is a good visual depiction of such a scenario. I assume Wallace breaks 80% in Alabama?

Yes, Wallace wins Alabama 81-19, but Nixon still wins two counties (Winston and Macon).

 

[Caprice]

I found out about a CNN poll that had the Democrats leading the Republicans by 18% for 2018. I had to map it out (showing the margin of error, as well):

 

[Vianca]

I found out about a CNN poll that had the Democrats leading the Republicans by 18% for 2018. I had to map it out (showing the margin of error, as well):

View attachment 361390

How many seats is that?

 

[Tomislav Addai]

Slovakia without Slovaks: elections:

The top map shows winners by districts: purple in the northwest and northeast is KNS-ČaMH-VK coalition (mostly ethnic Czechs and Rusyns, as well as some Germans). The purple-brown stripe in central Slovakia is SOS- Party of the Inhabitants of Slovakia, led by former Slovak president Rudolf Schuster. Brown is the RIS-SRK - ethnic party of the Romas. Pink is SDĽ - Party of Democratic Left, won in only one district (Detva). Orange is Most-Híd, a liberal Hungarian party. Green is SMK-MKP, a conservative Hungarian party, while dark green in Unification-Movement for 64 Counties in Felvidék. Blue-green district in the south (Veľký Krtíš) was won by Jóbbik-Movement for a Better Felvidék.

All of the maps are done using the RGB model-with 200 points corresponding to 100%.

The SMK/MKP (Party of the Hungarian community), led by József Berényi. A major conservative and moderately nationalist Hungarian party did well in the southern districts, with its bastion in Komárno rural district. Green areas indicate areas of success, red are areas of failure, brown is electoral result around 50%

Most-Híd is led by Béla Bugár, and is more liberal Hungarian party. Its major bastion is Galánta, and did very well in the urban regions of Bratislava, Košice, as well as earning success in Senec, Šaľa and Nitra, while winning among the Hungarians in the eastern districts as well. Support in Zvolen (central Slovakia) comes from Roma votes as well. Red denotes victory, blue are areas with less percentages

Jóbbik-Movement for a Better Felvidék led by Gyula Molnár supports limited irredentism (that is, ethnic Hungarian areas to be joined to Hungary). The party is viewed as nationalistic and extremist by some, and performed best in Veľký Krtíš, while not doing bad in Levice or rural Košice either. Support is green, failure red

The Unification-Movement of 64 Counties in the Felvidék, led by Miklós Farkas aims to unite all of Slovakia with Hungary. It draws its support from ethnic Hungarians outside of the major Hungarian concentration, notably Zlaté Moravce, Banská Śtiavnica and Topoľčany. Success in green, lack of support in red

The MKDA (Hungarian Christian Democratic Alliance) led by Csaba Fehér was founded from the Hungarian wing of former KDH and from the Christian wing in the SMK. Appart from support in the southern rural areas, the MKDA has conviced many ethnic Poles in the north to give them their vote as well. Support in blue

SOS: Party of the Inhabitants of Slovakia, led by Rudolf Schuster, ethnic German and former president of Slovakia. Reaching out to people living in depopulated villages throughout Slovakia, this party aimed at acquiring the non-Hungarian, non-Roma and non-Rusyn votes. It failed to reach the parliament, but gained considerable support (red) from Poles in the north, and some Czechs in the central regions as well.
SDĽ (Party of Democratic Left) led by Ivan Mihalič is a major post-communist left-wing party, which gained limited support (red on blue map) mostly among ethnic Romas and from some Rusyns as well. Biggest electoral success in Detva.

Roma Initiave of Slovakia-Slovak Roma Coalition led by Peter Pollák, with other key figures such as Viktor Horváth, Vojtech Kokeny and Vaclav Kappel did a very systematic effort to mobilize the Roma voters. Their effort bore fruit mainly in the red areas of the Spiš region, in Vranov and Brezno districts, while elsewhere Roma supported left-wing parties. Anyhow, a 9% score was a success, despite the Romas making 16% of the population

KNS-ČaMH-VK is an electoral coalition consisting of three parties: Carpathian National Party led by Peter Medviď, attracting ethnic Rusyns and the Hauerland Germans as well, Czech and Moravian Vote (Jirko Malchárek, Jan Chupek, Stanislav Fort, Rado Ondrejíček) and Your Region of Peter Pčolinský. The Czechs won in a handful of distrcits (blue) in Váh valley bordering the Czech republic; the Rusyns secured the northeast.

Úsvit (Dawn) around Ivan Hopta and Mikuláš Juščík is smaller sized left wing party, which however attacted only a limited number of (mostly Roma) votes in central Slovakia (supposed to be red, some support in the indigo/purple districts)

SDKÚ-DS of Ivan Mikloš and his deputy Zoltan Horváth scored (blue) something in central Bratislava, with some percentages in Piešťany, Dolný Kubín and Poprad. Previously a major pro-European right-wing party, it failed to gain over 2%
SOĽ (literally salt, the abbreviation means Party of Civic Left) is a marginal left wing party with very limited support (red).

This map below shows major blocs: green is support for Hungarian parties, blue is support for Czech, Roma, Rusyn and minority parties (SDKÚ included), red is support for left-wing parties

Finally who came second?
purple: KNS-ČaMH-VK
brown-purple: SOS
brown: RIS-SRK
orange Most-Híd
green: SMK/MKP
dark green: Unification64
green blue-green: Jobbik
blue bluegreen : MKDA
blue: SDKÚ-DS
pink: SDĽ
red-brown: Úsvit

 

[Caprice]

How many seats is that?

436.

 

[Zek Sora]

<snip>

most annoyingly difficult flag to doodle of all time

 

[Temeraire]

436.

I think they meant how many seats do the Dems win in this scenario. Also, wow at Alaska going Dem.

 

[Caprice]

I think they meant how many seats do the Dems win in this scenario. Also, wow at Alaska going Dem.

So do I. But they asked how many seats there were, so that was what I answered.

I did a quick count though. 262 Democrats to 173 Republicans (not counting DC).

 

[Vianca]

As some of you may know, there was recently a special election in Tennessee which swung 46 (!) points to the Democrats. I mapped out what the house elections would look like under that same swing.

The Democrats gain 204 seats on a 48 point margin, with the republicans reduced to just 37 seats. 14 states Trump won have unanimous democratic delegations, as do 17 states Clinton won. Republicans control 1 of the 50 delegations, Oklahoma with every other delegation having a democratic majority.

 

[Zachary VIII]

As some of you may know, there was recently a special election in Tennessee which swung 46 (!) points to the Democrats. I mapped out what the house elections would look like under that same swing.

What were the circumstances of that special election? Did the Republican shoot a puppy?

 

[Vianca]

http://www.tennessean.com/story/new...cant-district-17-state-senate-seat/961431001/

 

[Calthrina950]

Here's another county map that I created. This is of the alternate 2016 presidential election in the "Holland Scenario", the one in which a Democratic incumbent wins a landslide in 2020, in an alternate timeline. In his first election, Holland faces...Mitt Romney. He wins, though obviously it is a closer election. Holland's victory, however, is larger than those of Obama in 2008 or 2012. Based upon this county map, which states would go Republican? Which ones Democratic?

​

Also here, if you cannot see the image: http://fiction.wikia.com/wiki/File:...results_by_county,_2016_(Holland_Version).png.

 

[Tex Arkana]

Here's another county map that I created. This is of the alternate 2016 presidential election in the "Holland Scenario", the one in which a Democratic incumbent wins a landslide in 2020, in an alternate timeline. In his first election, Holland faces...Mitt Romney. He wins, though obviously it is a closer election. Holland's victory, however, is larger than those of Obama in 2008 or 2012. Based upon this county map, which states would go Republican? Which ones Democratic?

​

Also here, if you cannot see the image: http://fiction.wikia.com/wiki/File:...results_by_county,_2016_(Holland_Version).png.

It sort of seems like these results assume that each state is more or less totally independent of neighboring states. for instance, Holland does substantially better than Obama did in Arkansas, but does worse in Mississippi. as for the state results, this would be my guess:

 

[Calthrina950]

It sort of seems like these results assume that each state is more or less totally independent of neighboring states. for instance, Holland does substantially better than Obama did in Arkansas, but does worse in Mississippi. as for the state results, this would be my guess:

This seems reasonably accurate. And when you compare it to the landslide four years later, you can grasp the changes that occur. What, do you think, would be the popular vote margin here?

 

[killertahu22]

This seems reasonably accurate. And when you compare it to the landslide four years later, you can grasp the changes that occur. What, do you think, would be the popular vote margin here?

Big

 

[Calthrina950]

Big

Well, it is that, but what would the percentages look like, roughly? I suspect it would be somewhere in the mid-to-upper fifties, perhaps 55-59%, but I'm not exactly sure. It would definitely be smaller than the reelection, where the percentage was 66%.

 

[killertahu22]

Well, it is that, but what would the percentages look like, roughly? I suspect it would be somewhere in the mid-to-upper fifties, perhaps 55-59%, but I'm not exactly sure. It would definitely be smaller than the reelection, where the percentage was 66%.

I’m not familiar with the universe or the conditions of the election
But I’m assuming the democrat wins upwards of 57% of the vote

What’s the voting coalitions for each party looking like?

 

[Calthrina950]

I’m not familiar with the universe or the conditions of the election
But I’m assuming the democrat wins upwards of 57% of the vote

What’s the voting coalitions for each party looking like?

Well, the Democratic coalition would be a combination of minorities, a substantial segment of poor and working-class whites (a similar proportion to what Bill Clinton got in the 1990s), and socially liberal to moderate suburbanites. The Republican coalition would be a combination of evangelicals, rural voters, the majority (though not the overwhelming majority) of working-class whites, and moderate-to-conservative suburbanites. Republicans would be strongest in the interior Western and Upper Appalachian states; Democrats in the Northeast and West Coast, as well as parts of the Midwest. There would still be a good number of "Blue Dog" Democrats in Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas, Georgia, Tennessee, the Carolinas, Virginia, and Missouri, as you can gather from the map. The Democratic Party would be more like the party of Clinton or Jimmy Carter, ideologically speaking, while the Republicans would have a combination of Reaganite and Nixonian views.

 

[killertahu22]

Well, the Democratic coalition would be a combination of minorities, a substantial segment of poor and working-class whites (a similar proportion to what Bill Clinton got in the 1990s), and socially liberal to moderate suburbanites. The Republican coalition would be a combination of evangelicals, rural voters, the majority (though not the overwhelming majority) of working-class whites, and moderate-to-conservative suburbanites. Republicans would be strongest in the interior Western and Upper Appalachian states; Democrats in the Northeast and West Coast, as well as parts of the Midwest. There would still be a good number of "Blue Dog" Democrats in Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas, Georgia, Tennessee, the Carolinas, Virginia, and Missouri, as you can gather from the map. The Democratic Party would be more like the party of Clinton or Jimmy Carter, ideologically speaking, while the Republicans would have a combination of Reaganite and Nixonian views.

Then damn the last republican must’ve fucked up bad