WW2 with no USSR

[Ultima Ratio]

So let’s say that the Russian Civil War is won by the whites, or is mostly averted/toned down. What is left in the end is a Russian republic with something like a provisional government. The state is weak and is in turmoil for decades following the war, facing communist insurrections here and there, struggling to industrialize and generally weak economically with rampant corruption. (I’m not expert on the Russia of this period, but I think this might be plausible) Germany is of course still defeated in WW1 and Russia manages to secure the Ukraine and Belarus, but Poland, Finland and the Baltic go free, the Caucasus is in constant turmoil as usual.

Now, how does this affect WW2? Does Hitler still come to power? Will he leave Russia alone? Could he even consider them to be a useful partner (if not ally), at least for trade? Would he still go after Poland and Lebensraum in the East?

 

[Histor32]

communism was the boogey man.
So lets play, the white's win. If they are strong enough to keep Ukraine, then they are pretty much strong enough to do what they please militarily.
that said, Granted Poland is free and Finland if it so chooses. Lithuania well go free in this scenario
So by 21-22 the whites wrap it up. they spend some time consolidating and reforming under a new Tsar and a new Duma or some other form of democratic tradition.

does said Russia still go to war with Poland? will they remain aggressive against an independent Poland, Finland, baltics?

A Free white Russia will be on good terms with the west.

This is a rather massive butterfly.

Lets assume Germany still screws with its currency and still has the financial crises.

If communism is defeated in Russia, it will not bode well for other groups, so if you don't have communism to play off of I think Hitler's Political career is pretty much stifled.

So no, no Hitler. Von Pappen and others might get more voice, and or you might even see the monarchy restored. I am also a firm believer that the Austrians would at some point join Germany in the 30's, Maybe even sooner depending on the climate of things.

I would also think that that while Germany and Poland are going to squabble, it doesn't really have to be a war. Also the Soviet issue helped to bring the Germans and Poles closer to each other.

Another thought would be that Lithuania is going to want Vilno, that could cause issues with Poland.

 

[Ultima Ratio]

Is it so sure that a white victory ensures such a firm grip on the country? Is the scenario I outlined, with a weak and inward-turning Russia not plausible? With a weak coalition government with whites, monarchists, socialists and even Bolsheviks. What I'm really looking for is a Russia that is mostly absent from the power politics of the era. I know that the reds were the boogey men, but even without the USSR, you still have communists in Germany, and irredentism and revanchism are still there. My assumption is that this could influence Hitler's rhetoric.

I think a strong White Russia is a completely, I think they would be even more inclined to work together with the Nazis than the USSR. They have the same claims in Eastern Europe, but there is no ideological difference and no inclination to spread a revolution to Germany. But this is not what I'm really looking for.

 

[thaddeus]

Is it so sure that a white victory ensures such a firm grip on the country? Is the scenario I outlined, with a weak and inward-turning Russia not plausible? With a weak coalition government with whites, monarchists, socialists and even Bolsheviks. What I'm really looking for is a Russia that is mostly absent from the power politics of the era. I know that the reds were the boogey men, but even without the USSR, you still have communists in Germany, and irredentism and revanchism are still there. My assumption is that this could influence Hitler's rhetoric.

maybe easiest way is a Polish victory in their war with Soviets in 1920's but somehow the Communists hang on to power in the aftermath?

 

[Ultima Ratio]

maybe easiest way is a Polish victory in their war with Soviets in 1920's but somehow the Communists hang on to power in the aftermath?

View attachment 337880

That still leaves us with a boogeyman.

 

[DemonicToaster]

The great depression still happens, therefore no way to compete as a crappy war torn country in a fucked up global economy.

No loans due to the great depression and most loans from WWI not being paid like the UK ceasing payment. And probably no one wanting to do what Stalin did in order to pull the USSR into the modern era (rather than the backwards country it was). So Russia will be forced to looking inwards for anything or use up its gold to buy (they also did have debts).

So it will not have the industrial capacity to wage a war like OTL WWII or the capacity to do anything significant.

 

[Ultima Ratio]

The great depression still happens, therefore no way to compete as a crappy war torn country in a fucked up global economy.

No loans due to the great depression and most loans from WWI not being paid like the UK ceasing payment. And probably no one wanting to do what Stalin did in order to pull the USSR into the modern era (rather than the backwards country it was). So Russia will be forced to looking inwards for anything or use up its gold to buy (they also did have debts).

So it will not have the industrial capacity to wage a war like OTL WWII or the capacity to do anything significant.

Sounds good, just what I have in mind. So how would this affect Germany and Hitler?

 

[DemonicToaster]

Sounds good, just what I have in mind. So how would this affect Germany and Hitler?

Well the whole invade Russia is going to be different, since there isn't any communism.

It can have the whole racial part, but without the USSR there isn't a way to point towards jewish Bolshevism. So he losses some supporters there.

In fact he might not get into power.

Japan honestly I have no clue if it would invade Siberia. But mostly anyone who writes a TL with that leads me to assume the Japanese are crazy like OTL in their plans and have no sense of logistics rather than the trope of Japan invade Siberia for lolz.

 

[Ultima Ratio]

Well the whole invade Russia is going to be different, since there isn't any communism.

It can have the whole racial part, but without the USSR there isn't a way to point towards jewish Bolshevism. So he losses some supporters there.

German communists are still a thing, remember the spartacist uprising?

 

[DemonicToaster]

German communists are still a thing, remember the spartacist uprising?

Sure. But there is not pro-Communist massive nation on the map of the world. His support may still exist due to local communists, but without the USSR the whole Jewish Bolshevism part looks weaker.

And without that it will need to focus more on the racial side in order to justify invading Russia for example or the fact they didn't get their spoils of war from WWI.

 

[thorr97]

No Communism in Russia means no compelling threat to inspire unity in any of the former Central Powers as they recover from the Great War.

The ultra-nationalists would still be making their ultra-nationalist speeches but they'd have a lot less to rant about and there'd be a lot less driving people their way. In OTL, such groups gained power by promising both protection and prosperity. In this ATL there's damn little left to be protected from and their prosperity promises would have to compete with similar - or better - promises made by other groups who aren't also weighed down by militarism or any of the more odious aspects the ultra-nationalists dragged along with them.

Thus the ultra-nationalist groups would not fare well in this ATL post-Great War Europe. While various non-ultra-nationalist groups would do better by promising more in the way of great economic times they too would face problems for promising too much and then not being able to deliver. The NSDAP got around that by seizing the wealth of a portion of its own citizens and then redistributing it to the rest. When they'd run through all the wealth of Germany's Jews they then had to look elsewhere to keep those economic good times going. They had the military muscle and the ideological disposition to make all that happen. The non-ultra-nationalist groups who got to power by promising better good economic times than the Nazis or the Fascists wouldn't have that muscle or disposition to "do the hard work" necessary to keep such fundamentally flawed economics going. And thus, after a brief spurt of a recovery, they'd see their economies head back into recession.

That, in turn, might give new life to the ultra-nationalists. Perhaps not the same bunch as in the 1920s post-Great War period but groups similar. Here again though, they'd have no great threat to draw supporters to them.

Thus, without a Communist Russia, Europe would most likely sputter along through the 20s and 30s without anything great or grand or monumental happening. The politics among the former Central Powers would be in near continual churn while the Entente Powers would be slowly recovering from the Great Depression and be thankful they're not in such a mess as Germany or Austria.

 

[Anti-GrammarNazi]

If Hitler manages to get into power at all, the West is not going to tolerate his shit. The only reason the West was willing to go up to the Poland invasion to declare war, was because they wanted a strong Germany to keep the Soviet Union in check.

Without the Red Scare, Hitler piss off the West, they declare war on him or sternly demand him to back off and he either has to go back or get couped.

OTL Nazi Germany is impossible without Red Russia. Another form of Nazi Germany might take its place, without the lust of war, they might be forced to adopt coherent economic policies, which might make their rule longer.

Best case scenario (most likely): Nazism and WW2 are butterflied away.

Middle Case scenario: Nazism rise similar to OTL but Hitler is quickly deposed as the West will be way less tolerant of him.

Worst Case Scenario: Nazism rise but as a "Germany only" state focused only on ruling Germany (as military adventures are impossible here). Nazism becomes one more authoritarian rule among an endless list of authoritarian rules in human history. While far less reaching than OTL it endures longer as there are no foreign armies to force it to go away.

Depending on how competent they are, Nazism in Germany might last as long as Francism in Spain. Bad news for Germany, but good news for the world. Not that they were a lot better by being divided in 4 by the allies though.

 

[riggerrob]

With Russia still weakened, slowly industrializing, but still plagued by Bolshevik insurgencies, Hitler's hatred of the West would still help him rise to power.

Best case: Hitler limits his ambitions to re-uniting Germans in modern-day Germany plus Austria, Sudetenland, Rhineland, Alsace and Lorraine ..... maybe the eastern edge of Belgium.
Swiss tell Hitler to @&$! off.
Hitler's ambitions become problematic when he tries to extend his control into parts of Poland with German-speaking minorities.
Volga Germans are lonely, but beyond Hitler's grasp.

Worst case, Hitler invades France, the Low Countries and Scandinavia as per OTL. WALLIES eventually liberate France, but with much heavier casualties.

 

[Alcsentre Calanice]

First, fascism is butterflied away. There might be some fascists, but the conservatives and reactionaries will not be attracted by fascism without the threat of a communist rebellion supported by the Soviet Union.

Second, no Red Scare in the US, meaning that Socialism might become on the mainstream parties (Socialism means usal reformism and trade-unionism, nothing really radical).

Third, leftist will be more succesful because they will be able to adapt to their local circumstances without being dominated by the Comintern.

Essentially WWII as we know it is butterflied away. I suspect that in this scenario, the Treaty of Versailles is peacefully revised step by step, but Japan will still cause chaos in Asia. But Japan is very unlikely to attack Britain and the US without Germany fighting against at least one of these great powers.

 

[Ultima Ratio]

All fair points, but I think you guys might be a bit overestimating the uniting factor of Red Russia and underestimating the uniting factor of irredentism. The former Central Powers will still want their lands back. Italy will still become fascist and try to have adventures, especially in the Balkans.

Of course we could see a right wing ideology surface that is different from Nazism (I know, the not-nazi-nazis is pretty overplayed on this board), but irredentism is still a huge driving force. And Russia, weak as it may be, could very well benefit from a belligerent Germany and former CPs, selling raw materials and maybe even hope to get bits and pieces here and there, even if they have no strenght to actually carry out military adventures themselves. A Germany that has access to Russian materials could possibly rearm as per OTL.

And without that it will need to focus more on the racial side in order to justify invading Russia for example or the fact they didn't get their spoils of war from WWI.

Does Hitler really need to invade Russia in all scenarios? I know, Lebensraum and all that, but there's all of Greater Poland that he can occupy. IOTL he attacked Russia for various reasons but one very important was that he knew that due to ideological differences, Russia will attack them sooner or later. Here we have a Russia that is timid and mostly happy with being on the sidelines, selling their stuff and maybe even getting German goods in return.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

White Russia, unlike Soviet Union would not be politically isolated-propably still in alliance with France, so far less likely to ally with Hitler. With friendly Russia France would largely ignore Poles and Czechs-IOTL they were only "substitute allies" in absence of Russia. So Russia could vassalize them over time.
Also without "Red Scare" it is possible that Hitler would be overthrowed early ,re-militarisation of Germany is less likely to be tolerated now.
But on the other hand-Russia is military weaker than SU without forced industralisation.

 

[raharris1973]

The only reason the West was willing to go up to the Poland invasion to declare war, was because they wanted a strong Germany to keep the Soviet Union in check.

If there is a White Russia that shows some strength while Germany is still weak, British Imperialism might fear its Russian opposite #, Great Game style. Russia and Britain, even Russia and France, had had some conflicts of interest before communism.

White Russia, unlike Soviet Union would not be politically isolated-propably still in alliance with France, so far less likely to ally with Hitler. With friendly Russia France would largely ignore Poles and Czechs-IOTL they were only "substitute allies" in absence of Russia. So Russia could vassalize them over time.

Interesting point. I was going to note that it would be difficult for France to be successfully allied with *both* Russia *and* Poland. You bring up the prospect of Russian vassalization of Poland and Czechoslovakia. I don't think the Poles would be ready for it, so soon after getting independence, a majority of their nation from Russia. If France and Russia are coupled, Germany and Poland are probably allied. The Czechs, since they were entirely under CP pre-WWI, are more likely to ally with the Russians than Germans.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

I don't think many if any posting here understand the racist foundation of the nazis ideology & what electorial success they had. In Hitler's view Bolsivism was a symptom of Jewish conspiracy and Slavic inferiority. France & the US did not have Communist governments, yet Hitler saw them as contaminated racially, and ruled by the Jewish conspiracy. A non Communist USSR would have been just as great a enemy, corrupt & a pawn of the Jews.

 

[B-29_Bomber]

I don't think many if any posting here understand the racist foundation of the nazis ideology & what electorial success they had. In Hitler's view Bolsivism was a symptom of Jewish conspiracy and Slavic inferiority. France & the US did not have Communist governments, yet Hitler saw them as contaminated racially, and ruled by the Jewish conspiracy. A non Communist USSR would have been just as great a enemy, corrupt & a pawn of the Jews.

Sure, Hitler's going to believe that.

Good for him.

But in order to gain power he has to convince the rest of Germany to go along with that.

 

[JackLumber]

Without the USSR Hitler will miss out on critical support and won't get into power, there is point in discussing the Nazis here