Axis victory in Europe, defeat in North Africa, and an Asian theater that can go either way.
In Europe, the Germans win, even if they do invade Russia. If it is in such a weak state, it will collapse and the Germans will conquer basically all of European Russia, and probably push down to the Caucasus, take Stalingrad and Baku, and exploit the massive oil fields there. If they do invade Russia, their forces will be a bit stretched but they will have a massive pool of natural resources and slave labor to exploit. If not, they will still have access to plentiful labor and resources in Western Europe and they can focus their full might on Western Europe. It was the Red Army's taking away the vast majority of German manpower that made the Allied invasion of Western Europe possible. The Germans won't take the UK, which will become a fortress with a heavy American presence, but the main action will be in the air and sea. The Germans will be able to focus the bulk of their manpower, including their air force, and will be exploiting the labor and resources of the countries they occupy, while the Allies enforce a tight blockade on Europe. Both sides will be bombing each other until a lot of urban areas in Britain, Germany, and occupied Europe lie in ruins until eventually a cease-fire, though not a permanent peace is signed.
In North Africa, Allied naval superiority means that, as in OTL, the Allies ultimately win the Battle of the Mediterranean, cut the supply line to Axis forces in North Africa, and win the North African Campaign.
In the Pacific, Japan is still massively outclassed by the United States. It will still likely invade China, but where it goes from there is not certain. Of course, with such butterflies, it's possible the Japanese invasion of French Indochina, which led to the US embargo that ultimately resulted in Pearl Harbor, never happens, but even if the US does eventually impose such an embargo, Japan may have other options. If Russia is in such a weak state, if the brief Soviet-Japanese border war that leads to the Japanese defeat at Khalkin Gol never happens, Japan might invade Russia in tandem with Germany to make a go for the natural resources there. Alternatively, it might make a lunge for British and Dutch colonies, which it can take, but if it takes on the US, it's screwed, though if war starts in circumstances other than those like the Pearl Harbor attack, which causes enormous outrage among the American public, and especially if the US fires the first shot, it's strategy of wearing down the US might have effect, and it might come out at the end with a negotiated peace rather than an unconditional surrender/occupation, though it is still defeated.