In September 1847, the Battle for Mexico City was raging. During the attack on Chapultepec Castle, a young American officer was wounded. That officer was Captain Robert E. Lee.

What if Lee had been killed instead of just wounded? What impact would it have had?
 
Assuming minimal butterflies until Johnston gets wounded, he either gets replaced by Beauregard or A.S. Johnston, I think. And given Beauregard’s poor relationship with Davis, probably the latter.
 
Maybe his daughters get married. IRL he managed to chase off their beaus, and kinda get one killed (I think). I am all for the idea of Lee's daughters having a healthy sex and family life.
 
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Assuming minimal butterflies until Johnston gets wounded, he either gets replaced by Beauregard or A.S. Johnston, I think. And given Beauregard’s poor relationship with Davis, probably the latter.

I don't think we can assume that. Below are a few places where Lee's absence could result in the rise of someone else:

1. How does the absence of Lee affect the antebellum promotion structure? Given the small size of the US Army, Lee not being there opens up an opportunity for someone else to rise in his place and gain experience/a position that he would not have had in OTL.

2. Who leads the Marines against John Brown at Harper's Ferry? Lee's actions here helped boost his reputation nationwide, in TTL that boon will go to someone else.

3. Who does Lincoln turn to if not Lee? This all depends on who Scott decides to mentor as a possible successor. If he chooses a competent loyalist (Edwin Sumner? Charles F. Smith?) this could put the Union Army at an advantage early on.

4. Who does Davis turn to instead of Lee? In OTL Davis relied heavily on Lee at the outset of the conflict. TTL's replacement probably gets blamed for the loss of West Virginia like Lee even though there is almost nothing he could do about it and gets sent to build forts. This in turn opens opportunities in and around the First Battle of Bull Run.

Depending on the answers to these questions, the opening salvos of the Civil War could be very different and result in a very different conflict. As a general rule though, I would expect that losing their commander thins out the Confederacy's leadership cadre and has them perform worse. Exactly how worse depends on the ins and outs of the exact scenario.
 
Didn't Lee become Superintendent of West Point? And as far as I Know, he restructured much of the education system there and improved the college, as well as having a decent influence upon many of the pre-Civil War officers?

I figure a loss of his presence/influence at West point may be felt there, if everything still goes as normal.

Assuming minimal butterflies until Johnston gets wounded, he either gets replaced by Beauregard or A.S. Johnston, I think. And given Beauregard’s poor relationship with Davis, probably the latter.

Clearly Bragg is chosen....:p
 
Didn't Lee become Superintendent of West Point? And as far as I Know, he restructured much of the education system there and improved the college, as well as having a decent influence upon many of the pre-Civil War officers?

I figure a loss of his presence/influence at West point may be felt there, if everything still goes as normal.



Clearly Bragg is chosen....:p
He would question his own selection!
 
Assuming minimal butterflies until Johnston gets wounded, he either gets replaced by Beauregard or A.S. Johnston, I think. And given Beauregard’s poor relationship with Davis, probably the latter.
Wasn't ASJ dead by the time JEJ got wounded?
 
This is an interesting POD with many possible butterflies.

Lee's absence does allow someone else to fill the positions he filled in OTL, but Lee did not rise quickly and was so frustrated by that that he considered resignation. With one exception, Lee's posts were not significant and would have little affect on that other person's career. The big exception is becoming Superintendent of West Point, though he was not responsible for the restructuring of the educational system, he was merely tasked with implementing changes already decided on by the Board. Lee did manage a minor change to the demerit system, but compensated by frequently advocating leniency. That does lead to the two major changes that would probably happen without RE Lee. James Whistler probably would have been expelled a year earlier, giving him a minor headstart on his painting career. And RE Lee's nephew Fitzhugh Lee almost certainly would have been expelled.

Whoever replaces Lee as Superintendent of West Point would almost certainly be an engineering officer. The most likely person would be John Barnard, who had previously been Superintendent and succeeded Lee in OTL. Less likely is PGT Beauregard, who succeeded Barnard in OTL and was replaced by Barnard after only a few days because of Louisiana had declared secession.

Leading the Marines at Harper's Ferry against John Brown was a matter of being in the right place at the right time in OTL. Most likely, instead of being Lee's adjutant, JEB Stuart is placed in command. This might also give Marine Lieutenant Israel Greene, who actually led the attack Brown's raiders, more prominence than in OTL. Greene was one of only 16 USMC officers to join the Confederacy, where his service in the Confederate Marine Corps appears to have been uneventful.

OTL's offer to lead an army to RE Lee was made by Winfield Scott, not Lincoln. Like Lee, Joe Johnston, PGT Beauregard, and George Meade had been on Scott's staff in the Mexican War. Scott might favor Johnston as a fellow Virginian, though Joe Johnston was already Quartermaster General. If he had been offered a Union army, Johnston might have accepted, eager for a long coveted combat command. If he had, Johnson probably would have been sent west so as to not fight fellow Virginians, much like George Thomas. I'd expect Johnston to better with the Union than he did with the Confederacy - cautious, but understanding the odds favored him. Beauregard would almost certainly reject the position and go with the Confederacy. Meade would accept, putting one of the Union's best generals in a more important position early on. Charles F. Smith is another possibility, Scott had recommended him, along with both Johnstons and Beauregard, for the Quartermaster position. Smith would also be a net plus for the Union.

Another change would probably be what Lee's family does. In OTL his cousins Samuel Phillips Lee, John Fitzgerald Lee, Roger Jones, John Upshur, and Laurence Williams stayed with the Union as did his sister Anne and her family. From what I have read, RE Lee's immediate family had Unionist leanings, so in this TTL there is a a good chance that Custis Lee, who only resigned his commission 2 weeks after his father in OTL, declares he cannot fight against the country that his father died for and stays in the Union Army. Ironically, this means that Arlington will be confiscated by the Confederate government. Custis' brothers might join the Union as well, or at least sit it out as civilians. RE Lee's nephew, Fitzhugh, still smarting from his expulsion from West Point, would join the Confederacy, though without his uncle's influence, his military career won't advance as quickly. RE Lee's brother Sydney Smith Lee has a good chance of staying with the Union Navy - in OTL he blamed RE Lee for pressuring him to resign his commission.
 
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In September 1847, the Battle for Mexico City was raging. During the attack on Chapultepec Castle, a young American officer was wounded. That officer was Captain Robert E. Lee.

What if Lee had been killed instead of just wounded? What impact would it have had?

I don't see any significant knock-ons before 1861, or really, 1862. Butterflies could affect a lot of things in 14 years, but who knows what? May as well assume no noticeable change from OTL.

However, come 1862, Joe Johnston's wounding is probably butterflied, so he remains in command. The Virginia front stagnates: Johnston doesn't have the boldness to attack with inferior numbers as Lee did, but McClellan has no real clue about how to win.

If Davis decides to replace Johnston, then who with? The CSA started with five leading generals: AS Johnston, Joe Johnston, Lee, Beauregard, and Bragg. Even by the end of the war, they had only elevated two other generals to army command: Pemberton and Hood. AS Johnston is busy in the West, if his death at Shiloh is butterflied. That leaves Beauregard and Bragg, and if AS Johnston is dead, Beauregard is out there instead. So Bragg.

Ugh.

But I still don't see how the stalemate breaks.

(All this overlooks the question of who replaces Lee as a colonel in the US Army in the 1850s. That man, if a Southerner, probably goes south, and would be the next in line in the CSA.)
 
I don't see any significant knock-ons before 1861, or really, 1862. Butterflies could affect a lot of things in 14 years, but who knows what? May as well assume no noticeable change from OTL.

However, come 1862, Joe Johnston's wounding is probably butterflied, so he remains in command. The Virginia front stagnates: Johnston doesn't have the boldness to attack with inferior numbers as Lee did, but McClellan has no real clue about how to win.

In OTL, Johnston was wounded when he attacked McClellan with inferior numbers at the Battle of Seven Pines/Fair Oaks. Johnston wasn't as aggressive as Lee, but more willing to attack than many give him credit for.
 
I would love to see a TL where Johnston is in command in the west while Meade rises to prominence more quickly in the East. Would have been interesting to see how other prominent OTL commanders in the Union like Grant, Halleck, Thomas, Sherman, Sheridan, and Hancock are changed due to this leadership shuffle early on. Would Johnston have been more likely to elevate these officers than commanders OTL? Having a more competent officer at a higher position earlier may have spared generals like Hooker or Burnside their defeats, since both were pretty competent corps commanders. Heck, would the rise of McClellan have been stopped or changed? Maybe he would have entered politics earlier?

OMG so many questions!

I can imagine that Meade taking command of the AotP in 1862 would have been a game changer for the Union.
 
Johnston wasn't as aggressive as Lee, but more willing to attack than many give him credit for.

Johnston could be aggressive - but really, how many attacks did he actually launch?

Whereas Lee could be crazy bold - e.g. the Seven Days and Chancellorsville.

ISTM that to drive back the AotP from Richmond in 1862, Lee's degree of boldness was required. And IMO, Johnston wasn't up to it.
 
Assuming minimal butterflies until Johnston gets wounded, he either gets replaced by Beauregard or A.S. Johnston, I think. And given Beauregard’s poor relationship with Davis, probably the latter.

...no...I think there are some significant changes beginning with the fact that if there's no Lee then Joe Johnston would have been assigned to be the commander of the Virginia Militia and would not have gone to Montgomery in 1861.

This means that Johnston is in Richmond organizing the Virginia Militia when Virginia joins the Confederacy and is not assigned to command in the Valley, which in turn means that Edmund Kirby Smith does not come to the Valley in 1861, and someone else commands there.

Which also means that 1st Manassas could be an entirely different battle and more likely a Confederate defeat if the Army of the Shenandoah doesn't get organized as it did in OTL and doesn't come to the support of the Army of the Potomac (CS) at Manassas Junction.

Also, as Johnston would not have been in the field at the time the list of the Five Full General of the Confederacy would more likely put him first in seniority - removing one of the major issues between him and Davis - which also raises the question of who the fifth man in that list would be.
 
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