WI: neutral Italy in WW2

[GauchoBadger]

Suppose that Mussolini has a stroke or is assassinated somewhere around 1939, before the Battle of France. Italo Balbo or someone else becomes duce, and commits to keeping Italy out of war, noticing the poor performance Italy had in WWI. What are the effects on a neutral Italy in WW2?
Will the Wallies offer territorial concessions (Dalmatia, Corsica, recognition of italian control over Ethiopia, something) to keep Rome sweet?
Without a mediterranean nor north african front, how well off will the Wallies be ITTL? How different will their operations be, and what shall be the political makeup of post-war Europe?
Assuming that the italian fascist regime survives the war, what are the effects on Italy itself?
And what about Greece?
How could relations between fascist Italy and Israel go?

 

[Cryhavoc101]

Firstly Neutrality is the only winning move for Italy

Secondly - there is no reason why Mussolini cannot die in bed like Franco by adopting a wait, waiiiit wait a bit more....nah let's stay out of it approach.

Then say 1942+ start to lean towards the Wallies and eventually allow the basing of Bombers etc

 

[GTStinger]

Neutrality will probably trade Italy western recognition of its positions in East Africa and Albania as well as a long term agreement for favorable use of the Suez. I don't see Italy receiving French territory or a blessing to move further into the Balkans.
Greece and Spain will probably enter into some sort of neutrality pact with Italy. Turkey and or Bulgaria could be involved as well.
The agreement with the U.K. will probably limit imports to 1939 levels for the duration of the conflict to prevent Italy from funneling strategic materials to Germany. But there will always be some degree of smuggling.
Italy will make out well selling to both sides. Germany will probably give technical assistance developing new factories in Italy where they are safe from bombing.
Germany will probably run out of cash around the time their military fortunes start to change.
Italy declares war against the Axis in late 43 early 44. Wallie troops will be landing in Italian ports before the speech is finished. They get some border revisions for the Italian speaking parts of Austria at most.
I see no reason for Italy and Israel not to get along. Mussolini was dismissive of the Nazi genetic superiority claims. He rallied around Italian culture not race or even religion. Italy would probably side against Nasser during the Suez crisis. That could lead to them supporting Israel later.

 

[M79]

Just make Mussolini listen to his nephew and this comes to pass about 1936. Albania and Libya along with Ethiopea are recognized as part of Italy proper and I could see Tunisia or Corsica wrangled out of the deal but not both. Italy serves as the German means to acquire goods and resources from abroad in exchange for technology and hard capital. Ironically this allows Barbarossa to proceed earlier by four to six weeks and German troops might take Moscow in mid November which will disrupt the Soviet railway network and set up for a much bloodied Eastern Front. It is perhaps not enough to force the end of the USSR but it might mean the Iron Curtain is pushed back to the Vistula and Danube rivers or even Dniepr and Neris. The war likely goes into 1946 or even 1947 and becomes much bloodied with whatever last (few?) Nazi redoubts destroyed by atomic fire.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

Just make Mussolini listen to his nephew and this comes to pass about 1936. Albania and Libya along with Ethiopea are recognized as part of Italy proper and I could see Tunisia or Corsica wrangled out of the deal but not both. Italy serves as the German means to acquire goods and resources from abroad in exchange for technology and hard capital. Ironically this allows Barbarossa to proceed earlier by four to six weeks and German troops might take Moscow in mid November which will disrupt the Soviet railway network and set up for a much bloodied Eastern Front. It is perhaps not enough to force the end of the USSR but it might mean the Iron Curtain is pushed back to the Vistula and Danube rivers or even Dniepr and Neris. The war likely goes into 1946 or even 1947 and becomes much bloodied with whatever last (few?) Nazi redoubts destroyed by atomic fire.

I disagree - with out a large war in the Med - this has massive 'mostly positive' repercussions for the British Empire - in particular the Royal navy is not fighting the 'Verdun of the Med' and that 'sea' is now fully open for British shipping effectively freeing up millions of tons of transport capacity every year that would otherwise be lost in the longer journey around Africa.

This in turn allows British ship building to focus more on escorts and warships and less on Merchant ships.

A large number of land units fought in North and West Africa as well as Greece, Crete and the Middle east putting down a number of Axis backed uprisings or fighting Vichy French forces. A lot of this disappears and along with it a staggering amount of equipment not lost (it was about 5 divisions worth of equipment lost in the Greek, Crete and Sonnenbaum campaigns alone)

Also is Japan going to invade FIC and then subsequently invade a far more 'First team' reinforced Malaya? This might possible seriously change, delay or even totally prevent the war with Japan.

Also I was of the understanding that the delay to Barbarossa was the weather not the Balkan and Crete adventures?

 

[kalamona]

Maybe not because of the poor performance - you know, not that simple - but because of the high costs and more importantly, more caution, not believing the war is - almost - over when France was about to collapse. As mentioned above, waiting, wait some more and some more.

For Italy, as a major merchant marine power, robbing both sides blind with "safe" transportation and breaching the blockade could be.. profitable. Exporting italian products mostly to Germany not only could create a hefty profit - again - but also could improve the industry to a great extent.

Of course, they would try to extort the hell out of everyone: territorrial concessions, trade deals, Suez usage preference, whatever, but IMHO there are so many possible outcomes, i see no way to predict the outcome (maybe Corsica, at least they try to go after Savoy, I dont think they get Tunesia and Malta is out of question. Dalmatia depends on what happens with Yugoslavia: in case of german invasion and breakup, they may simply occupy it, etc.)
Im conviced, that they more or less drop the whole greek war nonsense - they pressure the greeks for everything, but no war.

Japan would have a hard time, the men, material and everything used against Italy in this case go against them. Good time to extort... make a deal again with the brits.

Good question, what would happen to the minor axis: IMHO, they would flock to the non-beligerent neutral Italy to counterweight the german influence. Possibly Hungary remain non-beligerent with close ties to Italy, in case of Yugoslavian breakup, they would occupy parts in concert to "protect the inhabitants from the... whatever". Romania because of Bessarabia would most likely still go to war, Bulgaria would have followed Italy (and with the Yugoslavian occupation).
However, the whole Yugoslav question is flexible at least: in this case, the neutral Italy (and co.) are the biggest threat to her, not the germans. So maybe no coup, we could even see an axis Yugoslavia, Germany protecting her - from the Italians.

Germany overall would be better off: at least 2 theatres are off, manpower, material - imported or acquired trough Italy - situation is better, anything could happen.
However, after the US entry to war, things could go... interesting - and again, too many unknown factors.

If the war ends somewhat similar to OTL (bombing campaign, D-Day, Soviet steamroller, german defeat - oh, btw, maybe a Black Sea LL route is possible in this scenario), and Italy as above mentioned, in a "wait, wait, wait some more" mindset, they would declare war when Germany proper is under attack. Or even when Berlin is under siege. Hell, they may wait till Hitler is dead. The Alps are a bad palce to attack anyway, they dont really want any territory from them, why the rush.
Maybe, if Yugoslavia goes axis they attack, but only when the Allies at th egerman border - and near or in Italy.

After the war... hm, good question. First of all, Benny would seem as the statesman of the century (only a few would know, how close they were to go alongside with Adolf... shivering at the tought), still, US would pressure both Benny, the king and well, everyone, to "ease up" at least a little bit. A Franco-style power transfer is for sure, maybe sooner.
Without the war damage and with the, well, profiteering on Germany, the economy and industry would be in a much finer state than OTL. Hell, maybe they would set their agriculture straight during the war.

So... TLDR: they would be much, much more better off.

 

[Galba Otho Vitelius]

This is a complicated question, but in general Italy itself turns out like IOTL Spain, with Umberto II playing a role similar to Juan Carlos. That also means the PCI winds up with about as much electoral support as IOTL Spanish communists.

One the rest of World War II, it mostly helps Germany/ the Axis. This is mainly in less oil and air power being diverted to the Mediterranean, though having the army units they sent into Greece, Italy, and Africa IOTL helps too. They have Rommel available as a corps or infantry commander on the Eastern Front, their lineup very was very good so this doesn't help that much, but it does help a little. Also no American and British bomber bases in southern Italy.

The British, and the Americans in 1942, have a big problem in wanting to do something against the Axis and having no place to attack. Expect even more resources than IOTL to be put into SOE and the bomber offensive, though its hard to believe they could do more than they did IOTL. A return to Norway, something that only Churchill had any interest in, looks more attractive. It has the advantage of directly assisting the USSR, which really is doing all the fighting ITTL. If the Americans and British don't do Norway, they may try to return to France in 1943.

Not having the Mediterranean Front for the British and Americans frees up only two armies at the most (the US 5th and the UK 8th, what became the US 7th and FR 1st were carved out of the former two armies in 1944) and air, so I think the Axis gets more out out it, especially as Hitler liked to use his elite SS units against the British and Americans (and Canadians) so German units diverted to the Med tended to be of high quality. After 1943, the Allied Mediterranean command got the leftovers of what wasn't being used for Overlord and in the Pacific. This is another instance where the Allies still win, but later.

 

[GTStinger]

I think the UK quickly secures the middle east, then they return to Norway simply because they have to do something with their troops in 1942. Norway is logistically and politically preferable to an expeditionary force in Soviet territory.
The French territories, particularly Africa will lean more Free French with Italy neutral.

I don't think Barbarossa will go too much better than OTL. Weather was the main factor in the start date and the Soviets were convinced that the Nazis wouldn't attack while they were still fighting in the Balkans. They thought the German troops near the border were heading south and got caught napping.
ATL the Soviets will recognize the German mobilization as a threat and have a better level of preparedness in the first couple weeks.

 

[thaddeus]

would Great Britain still attack French fleet and colonies with Italy on the sidelines? (as they feared all three fleets combining IOTL) THAT might determine whether Vichy regime able to assert control over the colonial empire.

without Italy, there is at least chance Turkey could join Axis side (not likely but it was impossible with Italy there.)

 

[lukedalton]

Not having the Mediterranean Front for the British and Americans frees up only two armies at the most (the US 5th and the UK 8th, what became the US 7th and FR 1st were carved out of the former two armies in 1944) and air, so I think the Axis gets more out out it, especially as Hitler liked to use his elite SS units against the British and Americans (and Canadians) so German units diverted to the Med tended to be of high quality. After 1943, the Allied Mediterranean command got the leftovers of what wasn't being used for Overlord and in the Pacific. This is another instance where the Allies still win, but later.

The advantage for the UK it's not just the direct use of the army units and air assets, but the fact that now the Mediterrean is free to be used greatly cutting the distance the ships from India and Oceania need to do (saving time, money and sunked ships) and all the ships of the Royal Navy (and all the various army units) can stay in Asia...it will be a very bad time to be a japanese soldier.
Plus better count even Greece, as i doubt an Italy neutral will go for a direct invasion.

 

[M79]

The original date for Barbarossa was 15 May 1941, Paulus and von Runstedt noted the Yugoslav campaign delayed the operation by about five weeks. Logistics and weather are noted but alone are probably not enough to have stopped or stalled the invasion. Five weeks puts the Germans in Moscow if everything goes per OTL but does not guarantee a Nazi victory, rather it makes the winter war in 1941-1942 much more brutal and might delay the end of the war by 6 to 18 months. Should Japan decide to invade the Soviet Far East at that point it could be the end of the USSR though.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

How many times has this one appeared in the past year?

Nuetrality certainly becomes Italy in this era. Perhaps in 1943 or 1944 Italy is seduced into joining the Allies, but its not as likely as neutrality. Nuetrality might include things like denying Germany commercial credit from 1942, which effectively cut the Germans off from trade via Italy. If & when Germany collapses Italy might provide 'peacekeeping' troops at some location inconvenient for the Allies. i.e.: Like the Swedes organizing 'Danish' battalions to take the surrender of the Germans in Copenhagen. Italy had a prewar relationship with Rumania, so perhaps a IEF to take the surrender of the Rumanians before the Red Army arrives?

The Italians could find it lucrative to manufacture war materials for both sides, tho given Germanys finances the Allies would be the favored customer.

Political radicals of all types could be distracted by joining a Black Shirt Legion for the crusade against Bolshivism, or join a Red Shirt legion to fight the Facists in Russia or wherever.

Postwar folks would be inclined to ignore the comic opera aspects of Mussolini and repeat his guiding neutral Italy through the traps of the war.

 

[Ryan]

ATL the Soviets will recognize the German mobilization as a threat and have a better level of preparedness in the first couple weeks.

I've seen it said that that could actually hurt the soviets rather than help them because it simply means that more men and equipment get pocketed and captured/destroyed in the opening weeks of the invasion. although admittedly i'm not sure what the general consensus is regarding that idea.

 

[Admiral Beez]

What happens to the Italian forces in China? http://dutcheastindies.webs.com/shanghai.html

The Japanese won't respect Italy's neutrality anymore than they did Portugal's over Macau and Timor. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portugal_during_World_War_II

With its base in the Red Sea (assuming that territory is still taken per OTL), and sizable naval force (6xBB, 21xCA/CL, 52DD, 106xSSK) and presumably free use of the Suez Canal, Japan could project a lot of power into the Indian Ocean.

So, 1940, Japan begins to threaten the neutral Italians at Shanghai. Italian sends the battleship Cesare, two CAs, four destroyers, two supply/support ships and two troopships to Shanghai to protect its concession there.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Not sure if the Cesare would be the right ship for guarding Shanghai. Beam, draft, fuel requirements, & all that. Another cruiser or two might be better.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

I've seen it said that that could actually hurt the soviets rather than help them because it simply means that more men and equipment get pocketed and captured/destroyed in the opening weeks of the invasion. although admittedly i'm not sure what the general consensus is regarding that idea.

I've never understood the argument that being caught in the camps and barracks is better than alerted & deployed with ammunition distributed, and communications stood up.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Not sure if the Cesare would be the right ship for guarding Shanghai. Beam, draft, fuel requirements, & all that. Another cruiser or two might be better.

I agree, but until the end of 1940 there's no other battleship to send.

On another topic, could a neutral Italy see Aquila or other aircraft carriers entering service? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_aircraft_carrier_Aquila#Genesis

 

[Luminous]

I agree, but until the end of 1940 there's no other battleship to send.

On another topic, could a neutral Italy see Aquila or other aircraft carriers entering service? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_aircraft_carrier_Aquila#Genesis

As it's not a war situation, it seems more likely that the Italians would attempt to make a purpose-built carrier, rather than rush converting an ocean liner. You'd also have no other crazy conversions, etc. (Bolzano). So, yes, you're likely to see a few more mature carriers being put into production, but probably not anytime.

If they act wisely, they'd carefully study their foes to make sure they understand how to take advantage of new strategy.

 

[Admiral Beez]

As it's not a war situation

Without war, do we see Italy further slow down production and conversion of its battleships?

 

[Luminous]

Without war, do we see Italy further slow down production and conversion of its battleships?

Well, nothing would change until the late 1930s, perhaps even the 1940s. WW2 is going on regardless, so they're not cancelling. In the end, they'll simply finish out their current building program while taking note of the events of the war. Impero will be finished, and will give Italy 8 battleships. The Capitani Romani light cruiser/destroyer leaders will be finished out, and they may or may not confiscate and complete the Etna. Material will not be strangled in such a scenario, and they'll finish out current programs.

Do note that Italian shipbuilding was incredibly reactive; they didn't take a proactive stance with new and innovative methods. If there is a Pacific theater, the usage of carriers by the Japanese and the US as their main strike components will be what spurs them to create a few. But, in the end, the Italian navy will linger on with their older battleships and other ships for quite a while after the war.