WI: Galicia-Volhynia does not fall or decline? Leading to a surviving Kingdom of Ruthenia?

[thezerech]

What if the Kingdom of Ruthenia (Galicia-Volhynia) does not fall but rather, manages to expand or at least survive until the collapse of the Golden Horde a few hundred years later? When they can safely expand into the former Kyivan Rus'.

Perhaps Shvarno manages to hold the Lithuanian throne, and the alliance between him and his brother Lev, aswell as with Hungary manages to defeat Poland (as OTL) capturing Lublin. Maybe this alliance is strong enough to expand its influence all the way to Kyiv and Chernihiv after a few decades?

Lev's two sons and any children of Shvarno (or if he died, Lev's children aswell) eventually manage to keep the realm together. Historically both brothers were allied with both Poland and Hungary. If they both along with their children don't die in battle against the Mongols, than Ruthenia will be stable enough where Poland and Hungary will not invade, as OTL they only invaded because the ruling dynasty was extinguished.

So by, 1400 the Kingdom of Ruthenia has control of Galicia, Volhynia, Moldavia, Kyiv, (possibly) Chernihiv, (possibly) Carpathian-Rus, (possibly) Lithuania, (possibly), Lublin, and 'Black Ruthenia'. I imagine holding Lithuania will be difficult, and in the end only make things harder. However, if they manage to hold it and convert it to Christianity I imagine it being either a separate Duchy or Kingdom to Ruthenia under a relative of the King of Ruthenia. Holding Lublin and the Carpathian-Rus might only make conflict with Poland and Hungary, so perhaps losing those like OTL will make things easier in the long run. As both Poland and Hungary might be needed to defeat the Mongols.

Since the Kingdom's apex and golden age only ended due to the dynastic instability brought on by the extinction of the Rurikid dynasty in the Principality, our POD being a surviving Rurikid dynasty in Ruthenia, the Kingdom should hold together. If this continues, by the year 1400 Ruthenia is the premier power in Eastern Europe, and has united the heartland of the Kyivan Rus'.

Is all of this possible? Am I missing any major factors? What else is likely to occur?

 

[thezerech]

This is a map of the Kingdom.

I imagine by 1350, with the above PODS all the territory covered possibly with the exception of Mukacheve and Lublin will be under the Kingdom's control. Possibly more of Polotsk, possibly Chernihiv and Pereyaslavl aswell, by ~1400. Lithuania will be either an ally or client state under a member of the Rurikid family.

 

[GauchoBadger]

I have kind of a soft spot for Galicia-Volhynia, it'd make me happy to see the kingdom survive.
Also, i heard that a Galician king was once crowned "King of Russia" by a papal legate, would this mean they were an institutionally catholic state? If so, then how would this influence their relations with orthodox russians?

 

[thezerech]

I have kind of a soft spot for Galicia-Volhynia, it'd make me happy to see the kingdom survive.
Also, i heard that a Galician king was once crowned "King of Russia" by a papal legate, would this mean they were an institutionally catholic state? If so, then how would this influence their relations with orthodox russians?

King Danylo was crowned by a papal rep. as "King of Ruthenia". In practice they were Orthodox though technically they accepted the Pope's authority. Similar in some ways to OTLs Ukrainian Greek Catholics. People who recognize the Pope's authority but still practice Orthodoxy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Greek_Catholic_Church).

I imagine in this timeline, they would probably remain recognizing the Catholic Church, though I doubt religious practices would change very much. Considering Hungary and Poland are both Catholic and useful allies against the Mongols I imagine that any Ruthenian King would make sure to continue the Kingdom's recognition of the Pope's authority.

 

[Planet of Hats]

This makes me a happy boy. My inner Ukrainian wants to see this.

I'd actually argue that your POD here isn't going to be a POD within Halych-Volhynia itself, but lying with the Mongols. You'd likely need the Golden Horde to weaken early enough that Danylo and his descendants could successfully break the Tatar Yoke, at least enough to establish their kingdom as a strong western counterpoint to whichever eastern Rus' principality emerges ascendant.

 

[thezerech]

This makes me a happy boy. My inner Ukrainian wants to see this.

I'd actually argue that your POD here isn't going to be a POD within Halych-Volhynia itself, but lying with the Mongols. You'd likely need the Golden Horde to weaken early enough that Danylo and his descendants could successfully break the Tatar Yoke, at least enough to establish their kingdom as a strong western counterpoint to whichever eastern Rus' principality emerges ascendant.

Мені теж, мій друг!

Unfortunately I don't know enough about the Mongols to know any POD that could really weaken them as much as I'd like. I suppose kill a few important leaders in the Khanate to cause civil war maybe?

 

[JackLumber]

Interesting premise, could get a German style Russian duality with Moscow, which would make for a cool timeline

 

[Planet of Hats]

A surviving Halych-Volhynia is also very well-positioned to hold Kyiv.

Probably the long-term effect is that by 2017 in this timeline, "Russia" refers to Ukraine and Belarus, while the area around Moscow is something else.

 

[thezerech]

Interesting premise, could get a German style Russian duality with Moscow, which would make for a cool timeline

Novgorod is certainly in the game as well. The Ruthenian Kingdom and the lack of a a Polish Lithuanian Commonwealth will certainly change central Europe. Though Poland is still obviously around, without Galicia they are already weaker and without the Eastern territories they will not be able exert as much influence in Central Europe. This could have massive repercussions, the question is will Poland focus more on the east or west?

I wouldn't use the duality metaphor though.

 

[thezerech]

A surviving Halych-Volhynia is also very well-positioned to hold Kyiv.

Probably the long-term effect is that by 2017 in this timeline, "Russia" refers to Ukraine and Belarus, while the area around Moscow is something else.

Well, not to get political but the only reason I refer to "Russia" as "Russia" so others don't get confused. I typically still prefer 'Muscovy'.

Ruthenia still refers to Ukraine. I imagine Muscovy would still claim the title of "Russia". They would probably also claim the title "Third Rome". Though Ruthenia might claim it awell, since they also have blood ties to Byzantine Emperors.

 

[JackLumber]

Novgorod is certainly in the game as well. The Ruthenian Kingdom and the lack of a a Polish Lithuanian Commonwealth will certainly change central Europe. Though Poland is still obviously around, without Galicia they are already weaker and without the Eastern territories they will not be able exert as much influence in Central Europe. This could have massive repercussions, the question is will Poland focus more on the east or west?

I wouldn't use the duality metaphor though.

Well continuing on with the German comparisons novgorod is more akin to Bavaria or Saxony significant sure but not quite in the same league as the moscovites or the ruthenians would be.
Poland does have options but I imagine looking east is probably the better option, while in theory France looks like a natural ally Poland is going to have its own rivals to the east, maintaining a good relationship with the Germans would allow both parties to focus on threats from only one front, knowing they have at least one secure border.

 

[thezerech]

Well continuing on with the German comparisons novgorod is be more akin to Bavaria or Saxony significant sure but not quite in the same league as the moscovites or the ruthenians would be.
Poland does have options but I imagine looking east is probably the better option, while in theory France looks like a natural ally Poland is going to have its own rivals to the east, maintaining a good relationship with the Germans would allow both parties to focus on threats from only one front, knowing they have at least one secure border.

When you put it like that it makes some very good sense with the comparison (politically). IIRC Galicia and Bohemia tried to conquer Poland but failed to capture Krakow. Bohemia and eventually Austria are likely allies of any Ruthenian Kingdom. Hungary possibly as well, though that is less likely considering some of their ambitions. However once the Ottomans arrive they'll have their hands full for sure.

 

[HunterX]

With a much weakened Poland and Lithuania, the decline of the Teutonic Order is likely delayed for some time.

 

[JackLumber]

When you put it like that it makes some very good sense with the comparison (politically). IIRC Galicia and Bohemia tried to conquer Poland but failed to capture Krakow. Bohemia and eventually Austria are likely allies of any Ruthenian Kingdom. Hungary possibly as well, though that is less likely considering some of their ambitions. However once the Ottomans arrive they'll have their hands full for sure.

Hungary is likely to be very chummy with the ruthenians once the Turks show up, both have invested interest in keeping the Turks at bay and Ruthenia gives the maygars someone to play the Austrians off of in order to avoid the Austrians completely dominating them.
Assuming we still get a ascending Prussia things start getting really interesting.

 

[JackLumber]

With a much weakened Poland and Lithuania, the decline of the Teutonic Order is likely delayed for some time.

Possibly but they are going to have to secularise eventually and then I'm willing to guess they will look to closely affiliate with the other german States.

 

[thezerech]

Hungary is likely to be very chummy with the Ruthenians once the Turks show up, both have invested interest in keeping the Turks at bay and Ruthenia gives the maygars someone to play the Austrians off of in order to avoid the Austrians completely dominating them.
Assuming we still get a a ascending Prussia things start getting really interesting.

The Teutonic Order might survive in some fashion, moreso than OTL's Prussia. This could be very interesting and lead to a very different 16th century. While my understanding is that Poland-Lithuania was the main cause for the weakening of the Teutonic order, with a both being weaker and not unified the Order might find itself gaining more power. However, if Lithuania is under a Ruthenian Rurikid (either a descendant or relative of Shvarno) than I could see Poland, Lithuania, and Ruthenia all allying together to defeat the Order, though the Order is more useful to the Ruthenians alive and well enough to pressure the Poles and act in some ways as a buffer.

Prussia would be very interesting in this scenario I imagine they still form eventually, but the Teutonic Knights history will be heavily altered.

 

[kasumigenx]

I really see Silesia retaining their claims to Poland and don't ally with Bohemia in this scenario..

 

[thezerech]

I really see Silesia retaining their claims to Poland and don't ally with Bohemia in this scenario..

Well, Bohemia if they ally with Ruthenia as OTL might try an early partition of Poland. As OTL, however ITTL it might be successful.

 

[kasumigenx]

Well, Bohemia if they ally with Ruthenia as OTL might try an early partition of Poland. As OTL, however ITTL it might be successful.

The Wenceslaus' and his contemporary Yuri both plan to both gain the Polish throne..in OTL both the Teutons and Bohemians once planned to partition Poland between them..in otl..perhaps there could be a three way partition of Poland with the Bohemians, Teutons and the Ruthenians getting a piece of Poland..

Jogaila is a descendant of Yuri and Wladyslaw the Elbowhigh's sister via Yuri's daughter, Wladyslaw's sister is married to Yuri..

 

[thezerech]

The Wenceslaus' and his contemporary Yuri both plan to both gain the Polish throne..in OTL both the Teutons and Bohemians once planned to partition Poland between them..in otl..perhaps there could be a three way partition of Poland with the Bohemians, Teutons and the Ruthenians getting a piece of Poland..

Jogaila is a descendant of Yuri and Wladyslaw the Elbowhigh's sister via Yuri's daughter, Wladyslaw's sister is married to Yuri..

We've gone from weakening Poland by depriving it of the Commonwealth to just partitioning it 300 years early.

Hip.


The effects on the reformation and central Europe will be incredible.