WI: Chiang Kai-Shek and the Nationalist Kuomintang were able to win the Chinese Civil War?

[Manlex]

I think this could be an interesting concept, I'd imagine that there's already been some threads revolving around this question but I personally haven't seen any. First off, this COULD have happened, especially if the U.S.A. had been more supportive of the Kuomintang and if they were able to win some key victories against the Communist government, or if the Soviets chose not to be as vigilant in their support. But what would the outcomes be? Would Chiang Kai-Shek lead the Republic of China into democracy? Or return it to despotism? The possibilities are endless. Thoughts?

 

[kernals12]

The best hope for China is the US gives them a bunch of money for these ambitious projects proposed by Sun Yat Sen in 1921. I will note that it seems almost every East Asian country that didn't go communist eventually adopted democracy to some degree (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, South Korea, and indeed Taiwan) ("some degree" being the key term).

 

[Raferty]

They were not going to go democratic under Chiang. Afterwards, perhaps. The Nationalists to win had to avoid doing the major offensive of late 1946 and conserve their manpower in their existing areas and focus on nailing down the areas they already had. Perhaps a promise of some kind of land reform to counter the Communists could help. But really, they needed to avoid wasting their men in offensives, and pulled back from the Northeast before their best units with experience fighting the Japanese could be destroyed in sieges and pockets, as what happened in OTL to the New 1st Army.

If they try to hold a line from Shandong to Shaanxi, they could probably beat back most Communist offensives. Wasting their manpower trying to hold onto the Northeast just would not work. Rather, a consolidated defense would allow the KMT to avoid being simultaenously defeated in detail as they were in the 3 decisive campaigns of late 1948.

 

[UCB79]

You'd also have to find a way to butterfly
away Japan's attacks in 1931 & 1937 IOTL
on China, which given the nature of Japa-
nese politics @ the time is ASB. It is JUST
possible(though not very)Chiang, not facing
war & a threat to his very existence, might
over time have loosened up(after of course
he had wiped out Mao). With a war, no way.

 

[Aphrodite]

There are several Chiang victory scenarios- the Americans providing more aid especially captured Nazi and Japanese weapons for example. Chiang could have been more competent and not lost as many men through attrition. Obtaining some loans to soak up the excess currency would have broken the back of the inflation

Now as to what happens: China follows roughly the path Taiwan does for the next thirty years until Chiang dies. Economically, that means China avoids such disasters as the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural revolution. Chinese living standards would be surpassing Americans about now.

In Foreign policy, the Vietnam and Korean Wars are butterflied away. China will grow immensely powerful and the Soviet Union will collapse much sooner as the burdens of defense skyrocket for them

China would be the only Superpower on Earth unless you butterfly the Nehru disaster in India

 

[trurle]

I think this could be an interesting concept, I'd imagine that there's already been some threads revolving around this question but I personally haven't seen any. First off, this COULD have happened, especially if the U.S.A. had been more supportive of the Kuomintang and if they were able to win some key victories against the Communist government, or if the Soviets chose not to be as vigilant in their support. But what would the outcomes be? Would Chiang Kai-Shek lead the Republic of China into democracy? Or return it to despotism? The possibilities are endless. Thoughts?

Any amount of support below the outright occupation of China was not going to keep Kuomintang in power. As contemporary US officer noted "Kuomintang leaders were covering their asses instead of fighting". The problem was simply what too few men (especially among Chinese elites) have strongly supported Kuomintang ideas - therefore it will become possible to stabilize only after most of Nationalist supporters were concentrated on Taiwan.

Therefore, keeping Kuomintang in power is likely mean permanently split China and proxy war with Soviet Union dwarfing Vietnam and Korea by order of magnitude. The Stalin would shift to support Chinese communists much faster than he did IOTL (in 1946 instead of 1949)

 

[yourworstnightmare]

I think this could be an interesting concept, I'd imagine that there's already been some threads revolving around this question but I personally haven't seen any. First off, this COULD have happened, especially if the U.S.A. had been more supportive of the Kuomintang and if they were able to win some key victories against the Communist government, or if the Soviets chose not to be as vigilant in their support. But what would the outcomes be? Would Chiang Kai-Shek lead the Republic of China into democracy? Or return it to despotism? The possibilities are endless. Thoughts?

Well, Chiang had a very authoritarian streak going on so China would have remained a KMT one-party-state. The interesting thing is of course that I don't see Chiang being able to hold onto Power. The KMT had become very US friendly, while Chiang himself wasn't really. OTL he didn't have much of a choice, but if he win, and try to steer China according to his Third Way principles, he might find himslef sidelined by more US friendly KMT figures that have more interest in privatization and foregin investment, and military ties with the US than Chiang himself had.