WI: British defeat at the Great Siege of Gibraltar

[Mort the Reaper]

When France and Spain joined the American Revolutionary War, they weren't in it out of simple altruism. They wanted to make gains at Britain's expense. One of Spain's primary war aims was the recapture of Gibraltar, lost to Great Britain during the War of the Spanish Succession. So in June 1779, Spain and its ally France began a naval blockade of Gibraltar, putting it to siege. This siege would last over three and a half years, and end with the British retaining posession.

What if the Spanish and French had succeeded in capturing Gibraltar? Could Spain have kept it?

 

[unprincipled peter]

If I recall correctly, France/Spain had a chance, but barely missed stopping a resupply fleet. I think it was fairly early in the affair. Had F/S managed the feat, and took possession early by starving B out, this allows them to divert a lot of naval resources elsewhere, or would cause Britain to expend resources to try to retake it, which is going to be a difficult task. If we assume F/S manage to keep Gibraltar, and the rest of the war goes similar (or at least the same result), Spain is going to want to keep it, as it was quite a point of pride. Britain would have to either retake it (which I've surmised they don't), or offer up something major in exchange for it's return.

This is a major embarrassment for the Brits, though. It may cause the gov't to fall. Public sentiment may change. It could harden sentiment to prosecute the war, or cause the public to give up on the war.