WI: Attempted assassination of Leonid Brezhnev succeeds

[EmperorBuaya]

In the OTL, the attempted assassination fails with the said assassin got his target wrong (he ended up shooting cosmonauts) and ended up mental asylum until released in 1989.

Going by the title says, what consequences happens if Brezhnev is successfully assassinated? So, what happens to Soviet Union upon his death in 1969, rather than passed away in 1982?

 

[Seandineen]

Koysign and Porgongy formed a due oloiogolphy. Some attempt at andropov style reform.

 

[fasquardon]

Koysign and Porgongy formed a due oloiogolphy. Some attempt at andropov style reform.

No way! We'd probably see reforms more like those instituted in Hungary under Kadar or in Poland under Gomułka.

Andropov, while there are hints that he was personally on the more liberal side, was fairly conservative in his public politics.

Andrei Kirilenko may have a more interesting career in this scenario.

And while the liberals are fairly strong in 1969, Suslov will wield considerable power and Alexander Shelepin could rebuild his power. Also, I expect that Gromyko would eventually get a seat in the Politburo.

fasquardon

 

[Seandineen]

Kadar is a good example.

 

[Kerguelen]

Unless Kosygin is extraordinarily lucky, we'll definitely see Suslov leading the Soviet Union. While Kosygin has Podgorny, Suslov has the orthodox communist bloc behind him, along with Andropov in the KGB. However, he wasn't the guy that would put himself as de jure leader, that position would probably belong to Arvids Pelse, one of his subordinates and an ethnic Latvian who held little actual support without Suslov. Overall, it's hard to say what path the Soviet Union would take under an even more hardliner government led by a troika of Pelse, Suslov, and Andropov. Looking at Suslov's biography, we can find some interesting things, including his opposition to de-Stalinazation and economic reforms, ordering the execution of nationalist Lithuanians, and his (alleged) proposal to trigger a nuclear war between China and America by nuking Hawaii. So with earlier economic crises, more disastrous wars abroad, and a stronger KGB crackdown on dissidents, we can say that the Soviet Union will be in for a rough time.

 

[fasquardon]

Unless Kosygin is extraordinarily lucky, we'll definitely see Suslov leading the Soviet Union. While Kosygin has Podgorny, Suslov has the orthodox communist bloc behind him, along with Andropov in the KGB. However, he wasn't the guy that would put himself as de jure leader, that position would probably belong to Arvids Pelse, one of his subordinates and an ethnic Latvian who held little actual support without Suslov. Overall, it's hard to say what path the Soviet Union would take under an even more hardliner government led by a troika of Pelse, Suslov, and Andropov. Looking at Suslov's biography, we can find some interesting things, including his opposition to de-Stalinazation and economic reforms, ordering the execution of nationalist Lithuanians, and his (alleged) proposal to trigger a nuclear war between China and America by nuking Hawaii. So with earlier economic crises, more disastrous wars abroad, and a stronger KGB crackdown on dissidents, we can say that the Soviet Union will be in for a rough time.

You found a biography of him? Where? The best thing I've found was a CIA analysis of his foreign policy views (see here).

It makes for interesting reading. In short, the CIA thought his high commitment to the Cold War with the US made him more tolerant of deviation by the Chinese and Eastern Europeans. Though 1969 is too late for really interesting impacts (such as Suslov acting to defend the Prague Spring), we could see Soviet relations with China improve a bit faster.

Nuking Hawaii to start a US-China war is nuts. What's the provenance of that story? ('Cuz it sure as heck doesn't fit well with the pro-Chinese picture the CIA paint of him.)

fasquardon

 

[Kerguelen]

Nuking Hawaii to start a US-China war is nuts. What's the provenance of that story? ('Cuz it sure as heck doesn't fit well with the pro-Chinese picture the CIA paint of him.)

It was from a book called Red Star Rouge that claims that Andropov and Suslov worked together to nuke Hawaii and blame China. Personally, I think that it's a load of nonsense, but it does make for some very fun reading if you're interested in Clancy-esque thrillers.

 

[fasquardon]

It was from a book called Red Star Rouge that claims that Andropov and Suslov worked together to nuke Hawaii and blame China. Personally, I think that it's a load of nonsense, but it does make for some very fun reading if you're interested in Clancy-esque thrillers.

Yyyeeeah. It really does sound nuts. And looking up reviews of the source, it looks of low reliability.

Overall, it's hard to say what path the Soviet Union would take under an even more hardliner government led by a troika of Pelse, Suslov, and Andropov.

I have a hard time seeing such a troika forming, given that neither Pelse or Andropov were in the Politburo. While Suslov might be able to make them powerful in the second tier, I don't see how they can get to the first tier before someone ahead of them solidifies their hold on power.

If Suslov wants a hardliner coalition to win power, more likely he'd work with Shelepin again. It's not clear that he'd want that though, "hardliner" isn't really a meaningful term, being invented by Western Kremlinologists who were trying to understand Soviet politics based on foreign biases and incomplete information... What the real Suslov would do would depend on personal conviction, who he got on with better on a personal level and what the client/patron networks of those competing for the top job were.

fasquardon