What would the post war era look like for a Neutral or Allied Fascist Italy?

[ImperialxWarlord]

I don’t think it’s off topic at all. Germany dominates the EU. It’s the third largest exporter in the world after China and the U.S. Russia is 16th. Getting back to whether they’d act independently or not, let’s look at the 1973 oil crisis. As punishment for the countries that were believed to have supported Israel in the Yom Kippur war, the Arab states lead by Saudi Arabia implemented an oil embargo. By the end, the price of oil had risen by around 300% and plunging most Western countries into a deep recession. Italy in this scenario, is sitting on Libya. Libya has significantly more oil than Nigeria or the U.S. and by far the largest reserves on the African continent. They’re also right in the heart of Europe.

The dominate their fellow members in a political/economic union. And they have a big strong economy. Other then that what influence do they have on the world? The Russian Federation is the inheritor of the Soviet Union and it’s position one the world, albeit reduced. It has massive military and political influence. As well as connections that allows them access to many parts of the world. I see it as off topic because you bring up their smaller economy and them not being in the US’s sphere when obviously they aren’t because they never were. It just didn’t make sense.

I don’t think that just because the Italians are a bigger economy then the Russians that they’ll be outside our sphere or barley in it. As I said I think they’ll be in a similar spot as France: allied and close to us but will do their own thing from time to time.

 

[Lee-Sensei]

The dominate their fellow members in a political/economic union. And they have a big strong economy. Other then that what influence do they have on the world? The Russian Federation is the inheritor of the Soviet Union and it’s position one the world, albeit reduced. It has massive military and political influence. As well as connections that allows them access to many parts of the world. I see it as off topic because you bring up their smaller economy and them not being in the US’s sphere when obviously they aren’t because they never were. It just didn’t make sense.

Most of Western Europe wasn’t in America’s sphere before WW2. And? I just don’t see how you can realistically argue that Russia has more influence in the world than Germany outside of having a UNSC permanent seat.

I don’t think that just because the Italians are a bigger economy then the Russians that they’ll be outside our sphere or barley in it. As I said I think they’ll be in a similar spot as France: allied and close to us but will do their own thing from time to time.

Maybe, but probably not. France is a liberal democracy. As are all of the members of the original members of NATO OTL with the accept ion of Portugal (a centuries old British ally). Spain didn’t join NATO until the well after fall of the Franco dictatorship. In 1982. Italy today has a larger economy than Russia after over a decade of stagnation. This hypothetical country would likely have a much larger population and economy than the one in our world.

Are you going to address my point about the oil crisis?

 

[Wendell]

Most of Western Europe wasn’t in America’s sphere before WW2. And? I just don’t see how you can realistically argue that Russia has more influence in the world than Germany outside of having a UNSC permanent seat.


Maybe, but probably not. France is a liberal democracy. As are all of the members of the original members of NATO OTL with the accept ion of Portugal. Spain didn’t join NATO until the well after fall of the Franco dictatorship. In 1982. Are you going to address my point about the oil crisis?

Spain might be effectively an Italian ally ITTL.

 

[ImperialxWarlord]

Most of Western Europe wasn’t in America’s sphere before WW2. And? I just don’t see how you can realistically argue that Russia has more influence in the world than Germany outside of having a UNSC permanent seat.


Maybe, but probably not. France is a liberal democracy. As are all of the members of the original members of NATO OTL with the accept ion of Portugal (a centuries old British ally). Spain didn’t join NATO until the well after fall of the Franco dictatorship. In 1982. Italy today has a larger economy than Russia after over a decade of stagnation. This hypothetical country would likely have a much larger population and economy than the one in our world.

Are you going to address my point about the oil crisis?

Most of Western Europe already had close ties to the US and wasn’t communist before coming into our sphere of influence. I’m just shocked that anyone would ever say Russia has less influence than Germany. Like it really blows my mind tbh. I’ve never heard anyone say that Russia, a nuclear power and major military player who has greater political reach is less influential than Germany. We’re just going to have to agree to disagree on this one because I just can’t understand this one.

I don’t see why they wouldn’t join NATO if they joined in the war effort and played a big role.

Yeah kinda noticed I forgot that. I think their oil could definitely help out if they want to provide their oil at a cheaper but economical price but I’m not sure if it’ll fix everything. They only have so much oil and so much production. So it could help (and be a great boon for the Italian economy) but I don’t think it’ll be the end all be all solution.

 

[Lee-Sensei]

Most of Western Europe already had close ties to the US and wasn’t communist before coming into our sphere of influence. I’m just shocked that anyone would ever say Russia has less influence than Germany. Like it really blows my mind tbh. I’ve never heard anyone say that Russia, a nuclear power and major military player who has greater political reach is less influential than Germany. We’re just going to have to agree to disagree on this one because I just can’t understand this one.

Did they? America was isolationist for most of the interwar period. Britain decided to move closer to the United States. Especially during WW2, because they were in a war with Germany and by 1945 were deeply in debt. The French economy was in a grim state by the 1945. the Germans had spent years plundering the country. Germany was defeated, divided and had much of their industry and infrastructure destroyed during the war. None of these would apply to Italy in this scenario.

Germany could build a nuclear arsenal if they chose. They’ve had that ability at least since the 1950’s. And as I stated before, economic power>military strength. In 1918, France was the worlds leading military power, but we’d probably both agree that the United States was the strongest country in the world. If Germany wanted to build a first rate army, navy and airforce they have the money, industry and resources to do it.

I don’t see why they wouldn’t join NATO if they joined in the war effort and played a big role.

I don’t see why they would or why they’d be invited. Again, the only dictator that was brought into NATO OTL was Salazar and Portugal had been an ally of the U.K. since the Treaty of Windsor with the Allies being granted rights to build military bases in Portuguese territory.

Yeah kinda noticed I forgot that. I think their oil could definitely help out if they want to provide their oil at a cheaper but economical price but I’m not sure if it’ll fix everything. They only have so much oil and so much production. So it could help (and be a great boon for the Italian economy) but I don’t think it’ll be the end all be all solution.

Fair enough, but it should be pointed out that in the interwar period, the United States was by far the worlds leading oil producer. Part of the reason Japan attacked Pearl Harbor, was because America‘s oil embargo was killing their economy and severely hindering their campaign in Russia. As late as 1950, American fields accounted for around 50% of global oil production and in the early 1920’s it was over 70%. Today, almost 2 thirds of the worlds oil is believed to be in the Middle East.

 

[ImperialxWarlord]

Did they? America was isolationist for most of the interwar period. Britain decided to move closer to the United States. Especially during WW2, because they were in a war with Germany and by 1945 were deeply in debt. The French economy was in a grim state by the 1945. the Germans had spent years plundering the country. Germany was defeated, divided and had much of their industry and infrastructure destroyed during the war. None of these would apply to Italy in this scenario.

Germany could build a nuclear arsenal if they chose. They’ve had that ability at least since the 1950’s. And as I stated before, economic power>military strength. In 1918, France was the worlds leading military power, but we’d probably both agree that the United States was the strongest country in the world. If Germany wanted to build a first rate army, navy and airforce they have the money, industry and resources to do it.


I don’t see why they would or why they’d be invited. Again, the only dictator that was brought into NATO OTL was Salazar and Portugal had been an ally of the U.K. since the Treaty of Windsor with the Allies being granted rights to build military bases in Portuguese territory.


Fair enough, but it should be pointed out that in the interwar period, the United States was by far the worlds leading oil producer. Part of the reason Japan attacked Pearl Harbor, was because America‘s oil embargo was killing their economy and severely hindering their campaign in Russia. As late as 1950, American fields accounted for around 50% of global oil production and in the early 1920’s it was over 70%. Today, almost 2 thirds of the worlds oil is believed to be in the Middle East.

Uh last time I checked they did. We fought with them in WW1, had close business ties, and had relations with them the longest. And while as you said none of the things you mentioned apply to Italy they’re still going to have closer business ties to us as the US becomes every more influential in an every more connected world.

Could doesn’t count for shit if you don’t have it. Russian 4500 nukes and almost five times as many active duty soldiers as Germany has in both active duty and reserve. Economic strength can’t be sneezed at but you need a powerful military to be a true super power.

Because in this scenario they would likely be a major contributor to WW2 and a key ally? And being a part of NATO would allow Italy to be a part of an influential organization. And why wouldn’t the allies allow their fellow ally in? They let one dictatorship in why not the one that fought side by side with them?

I didn’t know it was that high, neat. But I don’t understand what the point of that is, no offense.

 

[Lee-Sensei]

Uh last time I checked they did. We fought with them in WW1, had close business ties, and had relations with them the longest. And while as you said none of the things you mentioned apply to Italy they’re still going to have closer business ties to us as the US becomes every more influential in an every more connected world.

Sure, but that’s true for most countries.

Could doesn’t count for shit if you don’t have it. Russian 4500 nukes and almost five times as many active duty soldiers as Germany has in both active duty and reserve. Economic strength can’t be sneezed at but you need a powerful military to be a true super power.

So would you say that France was more powerful than America until the 1940’s? That doesn’t make any sense. They don’t need it. Germany is a major industrial power that dwarfs Russia today. That’s what matters. China hasn’t fought a big war since Vietnam in the late 1970’s. Most of its influence today comes from its growing industrial strength. That’s what matters the most.

Because in this scenario they would likely be a major contributor to WW2 and a key ally? And being a part of NATO would allow Italy to be a part of an influential organization. And why wouldn’t the allies allow their fellow ally in? They let one dictatorship in why not the one that fought side by side with them?

Because it’s a fascist dictatorship. Salazar is a unique case as I said. He allowed them to establish bases in a Portugal and Portugal had been a close British ally for hundreds of years. It’s much more likely that countries like Spain and Italy would be aligned with the United States, but separate.

I didn’t know it was that high, neat. But I don’t understand what the point of that is, no offense.

It’s about influence, isn’t it? What made America a superpower early on was their economic strength. During the World Wars they used that to build a powerful military, but America became the dominant power in the world decades before WW2. What I think is more likely, is that there would be a Junior bloc of states like Italy and Spain that lean more towards the United States and oppose communism, but operate separately.

 

[ImperialxWarlord]

Sure, but that’s true for most countries.


So would you say that France was more powerful than America until the 1940’s? That doesn’t make any sense. They don’t need it. Germany is a major industrial power that dwarfs Russia today. That’s what matters. China hasn’t fought a big war since Vietnam in the late 1970’s. Most of its influence today comes from its growing industrial strength. That’s what matters the most.


Because it’s a fascist dictatorship. Salazar is a unique case as I said. He allowed them to establish bases in a Portugal and Portugal had been a close British ally for hundreds of years. It’s much more likely that countries like Spain and Italy would be aligned with the United States, but separate.


It’s about influence, isn’t it? What made America a superpower early on was their economic strength. During the World Wars they used that to build a powerful military, but America became the dominant power in the world decades before WW2. What I think is more likely, is that there would be a Junior bloc of states like Italy and Spain that lean more towards the United States and oppose communism, but operate separately.

Not really. How many countries have had such a close relationship with us like France and the UK and the rest of Western Europe who’ve had close relations with us since our foundation? Or at leas the UK eventually had close relations with us.

And yes, I would say that. As far as I’ve ever been told the US was behind the UK and France prior to WW2 in terms of power and influence. After all they both had empires and militaries that were massive and influential on an international level. The US was a growing power but had not yet surpassed them.

So the allies would just sideline a major, two time ally who played a big role in the war because of their ideology? I doubt that, especially since they’d be very powerful post war and would be equally opposed to communism. I just don’t see the logic in it.

Gotcha. I see what you mean about all that. But yeah we just disagree on their being a separate smaller pac between them. I’ve said it before but find it more likely that they’d be NATO members and technically in our bloc but would often do their own thing because not everything they want to do will be pro US.

 

[Lee-Sensei]

Not really. How many countries have had such a close relationship with us like France and the UK and the rest of Western Europe who’ve had close relations with us since our foundation? Or at leas the UK eventually had close relations with us.

I don’t know what to say about this. America was China’s biggest backer for a long time, but China broke away from America in the 1950’s and from the Soviet Union in the 1960’s. That was long before their economy started booming.

And yes, I would say that. As far as I’ve ever been told the US was behind the UK and France prior to WW2 in terms of power and influence. After all they both had empires and militaries that were massive and influential on an international level. The US was a growing power but had not yet surpassed them.

Fair enough. We’ll just have to agree to disagree.

So the allies would just sideline a major, two time ally who played a big role in the war because of their ideology? I doubt that, especially since they’d be very powerful post war and would be equally opposed to communism. I just don’t see the logic in it.

Not sideline. They’d just go their own way. Mussolini only begrudgingly accepted being a junior partner to Hitler after they started losing battles and needed German reinforcements in Africa. In a scenario, where they’re not forced into that position, they probably wouldn’t. There’s also an ideological split. In the interwar period, there were a lot of people that felt that the world was being split into three separate camps; fascism, communism and liberalism. Fascism was discredited, because the principal fascist countries were defeated and associated with atrocities like the holocaust and the Japanese crimes in China and the Pacific. In a scenario, where Italy doesn’t join the Axis, fascism probably won’t be discredited and they’d probably want to put distance between themselves and the Nazis.

Gotcha. I see what you mean about all that. But yeah we just disagree on their being a separate smaller pac between them. I’ve said it before but find it more likely that they’d be NATO members and technically in our bloc but would often do their own thing because not everything they want to do will be pro US.

Maybe.🤷‍♂️