Italy could easily keep Libya given its smaller population density, plus the settler population could easily overwhelm the local Libyan population given Italy’s plan of colonization.
What would the post war era look like for a Neutral or Allied Fascist Italy?
- Thread starter ImperialxWarlord
- Start date
Wait. I mixed you up with another person in regards to east Africa. My bad.
Italy would not give up Libya once it hits oil. They’d be willing to do far more to keep it that France did for Algeria. If Portugal can hold onto its colonies till ‘74 I don’t see why Italy can’t. And as I said with such a big difference in population and the fact that most of the population is along the coast it has a very large advantage. Also, didn’t France under de gaulle choose to leave? I doubt Italy would do that. Hell, they already put down rebels successful in the 30’s.
Also in terms of succession, even though Mussolini's desired successor is Balbo, I would imagine there would be rival factions in the PNF who would attempt to succeed and would attempt to contest Balbo's position.
Hence off the top of my head I can think of who would most likely take power:
- Italo Balbo [Mussolini's Choice]
- Ciano Galeazzo
- Dino Grandi
- Achille Starace
- Ettore Muti
- Junio Valerio Borghese
- Alessandro Pavolini
Hence off the top of my head I can think of who would most likely take power:
- Italo Balbo [Mussolini's Choice]
- Ciano Galeazzo
- Dino Grandi
- Achille Starace
- Ettore Muti
- Junio Valerio Borghese
- Alessandro Pavolini
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Probably to project themselves in the Eastern Mediterranean. It’s possible that these islands would be given back to the Greeks, but they’d probably insist on maintaining military bases there. I’m not sure the Greeks would want or allow that.
Libya gaining independence isn’t going to happen if Italy stays out of WW2, although they’re probably going to eventually grant full citizenship rights to the native Libyans. There’s a good chance the country ends up like Israel, although the demographics are much more favourable to the Italians in this scenario. Once they start pumping oil in Libya, they’d keep it indefinitely.
If Italy stays out of WW2 then the butterflies are massive. No North African campaign and thus probably no Torch. No Italian troops to screen the German flank in Fall Blau and the Whermacht would need to find around 150,000 soldiers somewere else to screen the flank of the 6th army at Stalingrand.
I mean the man was basically a Pro-Nazi sympathizer. Plus with the Axis defeat, especially if Italy were in the allies, I can see him lose his reputation and what power he has.
On top of a significant Italian population in Libya, can also see a large portion descending from fleeing Pied-Noirs and Mutamassirun as well as other European migrants (including post-WW2 White émigrés – a large number in the case of the latter manging to avoid their fate in Operation Keelhaul / Repatriation of Cossacks after WW2 with reluctant Western Allies and others turning a blind eye here and there).
The Italians gaining and pumping out the oil in Libya also potentially mitigates if not completely butterflies away the impact of the oil crises on Europe from Suez in 1956 up to the 1979 oil crisis.
Would be fascinating to see what becomes of Albania depending on whether it is supported by Italy or under Italian Protectorate in ATL, especially if ATL Italy uses Albania as a proxy against Yugoslavia. Leading to a situation where an Italian headed Western-leaning yet Anti-Communist Bloc* is pitted against the Yugoslavia headed Non-Aligned Movement during the Cold War. At the same time can see Yugoslavia support Albanian nationalists led by the likes of Koçi Xoxe who (unlike Enver Hoxha) was for Albania being part of Yugoslavia IOTL.
Can also see ATL Italy the target of potential French duplicity with De Gaulle post-Algeria* embarking on foreign policy more favorable to the Arab world during the 1960s (despite Italian ruled Libya being a potential safe haven for Pied-Noirs, etc in ATL), it would be interesting to see whether the ATL equivalent of the Years of Lead still occurs up to analogue of the Mitterrand doctrine.
* - It depends on whether De Gaulle still adopts a more Pro-Arab foreign policy in ATL, especially if ATL Italy plays a valuable role in mitigating the Suez Oil Crisis or even a greater role in the Suez Crisis itself in helping the British, French and Israeli's remove Nasser from power by invading Egypt from the west in Libya (drawing a little bit of inspiration from BiteNibbleChomp's Patton in Korea/MacArthur in the West House TL - at least with regards to Suez).
**- A Western-leaning yet Anti-Communist Bloc that at various points is possibly composed of Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece, Brazil, Argentina, Chile, South Africa, Rhodesia, possibly ROC / Taiwan and a few other countries seeking an alternative to either the Western Bloc or Non-Aligned Movement.
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France was a democracy and Algeria had a fairly large population. IIRC, Algeria had a population of about 10 million with 1 million being European. Libya had a population of 1 million, with 100k being European. In addition to this, Mussolini and Balbo had plans for settling 20k Italians in Libya every year and mainland Italy had a population of 45 million during WW2.
I imagine that Italians would make up the overwhelming majority in coastal cities and native Libyans would move to the interior. There would likely be a problem with terrorism, but it depends on how the Libyans are treated in the long run. I don’t think it’s feasible to keep them as second class citizens indefinitely. That’s just going to breed enmity. But the benefits of having Libyans land and resources would outweigh the downsides.
The French wanted a somewhat independent foreign policy and OTL they originally began working on their nuclear weapon project with West Germany and Italy. I think in this scenario, France would move closer to continental Europe as a way to assert themselves and carve out a position in the world independent of their relationship to American and Britain.
Would the French in ATL go as far as to try co-op a potential Italian founded Bloc into its own, notwithstanding the potential disagreements between the two neigbhouring countries in this scenario?
They could try, but OTL Italy wasn’t significantly weaker economically than France or Britain. For most of the period since WW2 ended, Italy, Britain and France generally clustered together (in that order usually). That’s without the energy resources of Libya. I don’t think it would be easy to take over from a country in the same tier as them.
I either agree with everything you’ve said or think it’s possible. I’m still kinda doubtful on the whole third bloc kind of thing. I think it’s quite possible to see it as sub group of the western bloc though. Although I could see Taiwan as anything other than pro US, they can’t leave the US sphere of influence.
Would be pretty interesting to see what the suez crisis would be like if Italy had joined. Could have some interesting ripple affects to have a third power join in.
A sort of rivalry in the western block between Italy and France sure could be interesting if their shared allies can’t get them to stop.
One thing I disagree with is the Libyan oil making any difference. It was only discovered in the mid 50s iirc. And idk how long before production began in vast quantities. And there could be more there, iirc from what I’ve glimpsed at there’s a lot of unexplored areas where there could be oil but hasn’t been because of good ol gaddafi getting a bunch of sanctions on his ass. So eventually it could be very important but not for awhile even if found a bit earlier.
That’s true. Idk if France would even try to. Especially since this Italy should be much more powerful considering it wouldn’t have had the war go through it plus it would eventually have Libya’s oil.
Also. If Italy joins the allies could it get a UN Security Council seat? Or would that only be if it played a big enough role? Or is it completely too far out there?
I'm really thinking it ends as a sort of mix between Portugal and Spain's regime collapses. Mussolini dies and then theres probably some Angola-like war in East Africa with communist guerillas. The party becomes unpopular and the king is maybe able to restore a democratic government. Italy will probably have already gotten a majority in Libya with there agressive 4th shore settlement and the Dodecanese make a nice naval base. Albania could maybe be autonomous or break away, but still it would be in Italy's sphere. At best you got the med singing Giovinezza for an extra 20 years.
I went over this in detail in another thread, but they almost certainly would get one if they don’t join the war on the side of the Axis.
Im not sure this would happen. It took the Allies landing in Sicily to topple him in 1943. If they do liberalize, it would probably be a gradual process and a large and powerful fascist party would likely continue to exist.
It could be described as more of a Fourth Bloc that is a right-leaning yet anti-communist analogue of the Non-Aligned Movement / NAM, yet otherwise independent or attempts to be as such from the Western Bloc. Similar to how the Non-Aligned Movement in OTL for all its claims of being independent, at times moved closer to the Soviet camp once the movement decided in 1972 to award representation both to the exiled Sihanouk, who lived in Communist China and was allied to Pol Pot's Khmer Rouge, and to the Communist insurgents in South Vietnam (and other instances of NAM ties to the Soviet camp during the Cold War).
Perhaps both the Right-leaning Anti-Communist Bloc (RLAC or RAC?) as well as the Non-Aligned Movement would be considered sub-groups of the Western and Soviet/Eastern Bloc rather than independent Blocs in this scenario?
Another variation would be France and Italy heading a Southern Europe / Mediterranean Europe Bloc of nations (as opposed to Northern Europe).
Though it is doubtful, would have to wonder the likelihood of there being some sort of rapprochement between ATL Italy and Greece during the Cold War.
Brought up Taiwan (or ROC) on the basis of how since 1949 and even after its expulsion from the UN in 1971, it has lost international recognition over the past few years in OTL and maybe an admission to such a Bloc would be able to delay its loss of recognition to some extent in ATL based on its Right-leaning Anti-Communist stance.
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