What would the post war era look like for a Neutral or Allied Fascist Italy?

As the title says. What would be things be like for Fascist Italy if they’d stayed neutral or at some point joined the allies? What would their position be in the Cold War and new alliances? Would they be roughly in the same boat as Franco or would they be closer to the west and get in on NATO and Coal and Steel community and the EEC? How do you think they’d fair economically? And what would happen to their possessions in Africa?
 
Probably Italy would position itself same way as Franco's Spain during Cold War. And I can't see Italy joining to NATO. Would NATO even allow that? Altough it allowed Salaza'rs Portugal to join.

Definitely fascist Italy is going to last at least until Mussolini's death which probably happens on end of 1950's/early 1960's. But I doubt that fascist system can last very long after him.

Italy probably is able to keep Albania and Dodekanesia and any other conquests in Balkans. No, I can't see Mussolini staing out from Yugoslavia and Greece even if he is neutral. And there is quiet few what Britain can do.

Italy can keep Libya quiet easily.

Keeping Ethiopia is anyway impossible. If fascist system lasts to 1960's/1970's, Ethiopian war is going to be that which eventually cause fall of fascist regime like Angola did for Estado Novo. Italy can anyway keep Eritrea and perhaps Somaliland.
 
Probably Italy would position itself same way as Franco's Spain during Cold War. And I can't see Italy joining to NATO. Would NATO even allow that? Altough it allowed Salaza'rs Portugal to join.

Definitely fascist Italy is going to last at least until Mussolini's death which probably happens on end of 1950's/early 1960's. But I doubt that fascist system can last very long after him.

Italy probably is able to keep Albania and Dodekanesia and any other conquests in Balkans. No, I can't see Mussolini staing out from Yugoslavia and Greece even if he is neutral. And there is quiet few what Britain can do.

Italy can keep Libya quiet easily.

Keeping Ethiopia is anyway impossible. If fascist system lasts to 1960's/1970's, Ethiopian war is going to be that which eventually cause fall of fascist regime like Angola did for Estado Novo. Italy can anyway keep Eritrea and perhaps Somaliland.
Yeah that’s the thing that made me wonder if they’d let Italy in. If they let Salazar in why not Mussolini? Especially if Italy did end up joining the allies

I didn’t think fascism would forever but if things are going well enough I imagine they’d at least last as long as Franco if not longer.

Would Italy have any luck in Yugoslavia if they invaded? Do you think the US would let them keep any European conquests post war? Also I didn’t even know they had those islands lol.

Libya seems like the one they could keep the easiest considering how close it is. And they’d definitely want to keep Libya once oil is found. That oil could be a real boon to them.

Yeah I figured Ethiopia was a lost cause. Especially since everyone condemned them for it. I figured they be coerced into leaving post war. Is there anything they get out of Eritrea and Somalia?
 
Would Italy have any luck in Yugoslavia if they invaded? Do you think the US would let them keep any European conquests post war? Also I didn’t even know they had those islands lol.

I don't know how easy invasion itself would be for Italy but there is not anything what Britain or USA can to do. And they probably don't even do anything. They don't want Italy joining to Axis even as informal ally. And afterwards they are too exhausted to do much anyway and Italy is probably more useful as friend. So they are not going push things anywhere.
 
I don't know how easy invasion itself would be for Italy but there is not anything what Britain or USA can to do. And they probably don't even do anything. They don't want Italy joining to Axis even as informal ally. And afterwards they are too exhausted to do much anyway and Italy is probably more useful as friend. So they are not going push things anywhere.
I’m not sure what kind of military Yugoslavia had and if it could fight the Italians but the Italians themselves don’t have the best record so yeah. And I meant that post war the allies might tell him to leave Yugoslavia if they took it. Exhausted or not I can’t see approving on his invasion of Yugoslavia.
 
I’m not sure what kind of military Yugoslavia had and if it could fight the Italians but the Italians themselves don’t have the best record so yeah. And I meant that post war the allies might tell him to leave Yugoslavia if they took it. Exhausted or not I can’t see approving on his invasion of Yugoslavia.

If then they don't feel Italy and Mussolini being too useful on combat with communism. If Yugsolavia/Serbia goes communist, they might be totally fine with Italian conquests.
 
If then they don't feel Italy and Mussolini being too useful on combat with communism. If Yugsolavia/Serbia goes communist, they might be totally fine with Italian conquests.
That’s true. If the partisans or something like them still forms and achieves infringe then yeah I can see them turning a blind eye.
 

raharris1973

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I find the idea that the world would press Italy hard to get Italy out of Ethiopia, but not Yugoslavia or Greece, in the postwar super strange.
 
I find the idea that the world would press Italy hard to get Italy out of Ethiopia, but not Yugoslavia or Greece, in the postwar super strange.
I guess it depends on the situation. I’m not sure if they would’ve invaded or if they’d succeed if they did. I think there is a possibility that they might look the other way if the main resistance force are communists.
 
I find the idea that the world would press Italy hard to get Italy out of Ethiopia, but not Yugoslavia or Greece, in the postwar super strange.
That depends heavily on the postwar order. If Yugoslavia is Communist the West will care less whether Italy owns Dalmatia and Albania* or not. Greece might be more contentious, but if it’s just minor islands like the Dodecanese I expect them to eventually be sold/given to Greece with the fall of fascism anyway.

*The eventual possibility of an Albanian independence conflict could be nasty, though.
 
Fascist Italy would align itself lightly with the West but seek to create its own like-minded anticommunist bloc likely including Turkey, Greece, and Spain with pretensions of being a "third side", like De Gaulle but to a much greater extent. Yugoslavia is another matter--if you butterfly away the Italo-Greek War, it's entirely an open question whether Germany would invade Yugoslavia (Hitler would see it as a distraction from the preparations to attack the USSR, but Hungary and Bulgaria would want to get it done); if it doesn't and Yugoslavia remains a neutral monarchy, then that might open up a split between Italy and the West if Mussolini still wants to press Italy's claims against Yugoslavia.

Despite Italy's earlier overtures to the Arab World, I think Fascist Italy would, like Spain and Portugal, have become a staunch supporter of Israel, and might back Britain and France during the Suez Crisis, in which case Italy faces similar anti-colonial/Arab nationalist insurgencies as France did, which would extend to Italian East Africa as well. I think it's also near-guaranteed that Italy would develop an independent nuclear program, no matter how Washington felt about it, and also likely that Italy would retain good relations with apartheid South Africa. Finally, as with Franco and Salazar, Mussolini's natural death in the 1960s and succession by Italo Balbo (if his death is butterflied away) would probably spell the beginning of the end of the Fascist regime.
 
Finally, as with Franco and Salazar, Mussolini's natural death in the 1960s and succession by Italo Balbo (if his death is butterflied away) would probably spell the beginning of the end of the Fascist regime.
A part of me thinks that, if they play it smart, instead of the end like Franco and Salazar's Regime, they could turn out like modern-day China or heck Vietnam, in terms of adopting reforms politically and economically to ensure that the party-state stay afloat.
 

Grey Wolf

Gone Fishin'
I certainly don't see Italy conquering Yugoslavia - they might BEAT them, and n the peace would want Dalmatia and probably Montenegro to add to their domains (the royal family was closely linked to that of Montenegro), and maybe Slovenia?
 
Fascist Italy would align itself lightly with the West but seek to create its own like-minded anticommunist bloc likely including Turkey, Greece, and Spain with pretensions of being a "third side", like De Gaulle but to a much greater extent. Yugoslavia is another matter--if you butterfly away the Italo-Greek War, it's entirely an open question whether Germany would invade Yugoslavia (Hitler would see it as a distraction from the preparations to attack the USSR, but Hungary and Bulgaria would want to get it done); if it doesn't and Yugoslavia remains a neutral monarchy, then that might open up a split between Italy and the West if Mussolini still wants to press Italy's claims against Yugoslavia.

Despite Italy's earlier overtures to the Arab World, I think Fascist Italy would, like Spain and Portugal, have become a staunch supporter of Israel, and might back Britain and France during the Suez Crisis, in which case Italy faces similar anti-colonial/Arab nationalist insurgencies as France did, which would extend to Italian East Africa as well. I think it's also near-guaranteed that Italy would develop an independent nuclear program, no matter how Washington felt about it, and also likely that Italy would retain good relations with apartheid South Africa. Finally, as with Franco and Salazar, Mussolini's natural death in the 1960s and succession by Italo Balbo (if his death is butterflied away) would probably spell the beginning of the end of the Fascist regime.
I pretty much agree with what you said but I feel that like @Kingfish Chris said that they could reform like China or Vietnam in order to survive beyond the moose’s death. Would definitely be interesting to see a Cold War with somewhat of a third side. Although the issues of its Africa territories could be interesting if they have large Italian populations. I don’t think they’ll hold Ethiopia for long. But I can see them keeping Libya. Not sure about Eritrea or Somali.
 
Although the issues of its Africa territories could be interesting if they have large Italian populations. I don’t think they’ll hold Ethiopia for long. But I can see them keeping Libya. Not sure about Eritrea or Somali.
They would lose Ethiopia no doubt, although Fascist Italy may attempt to create a friendly regime in the process of losing said colony - Kind of like France creating the State of Vietnam during the Indochina War. The issue is whether this puppet regime can last, given that it would be unpopular by the local population being founded by the Italian occupiers to maintain its control of Ethiopia, all the while maintaining the facade that Italy cares about African independence.
 
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They would lose Ethiopia no doubt, although Italy may attempt to create a Friendly Puppet State in the process of losing said colony - Kind of like France creating the State of Vietnam during the Indochina War. The issue is whether this puppet regime can last, given that it would be unpopular by the local population being founded by the Italian occupiers to maintain its control of Ethiopia, all the while maintaining the facade that Italy cares about African independence.

I could see Italo Balbo pulling out of Ethiopia but having it exist only as a rump state with Greater Somalia along with Tigray areas being under the control of Italian Somalia or Eritrea.

I think those areas stand a good chance of, not settler colonization like Libya, but cultural assimilation. You see this in Eritrea OTL even with the short timespan that Italy had in control of it. If Italy holds on to these areas for several generations you'd probably get to the point where an Independent Somalia and Eritrea in the future would use Italian as the main language of government.
 
That said, with post-war Fascist Italy I can see politics play out as a mix of Francoist Spain, a post-Maoist PRC and the post-Stalinist USSR.

For Francoist Spain, its mostly for aesthetics what with it being a Fascist Regime in the Cold War. For Post-Maoist China, I can see the Fascist Government under Balbo pursuing reform, and Fascist Italy starts looking like China under Deng Xiaoping (Albeit unlike Communism with Deng abandoning much of Maoist doctrine pushing for economic liberalization, and political reform, Fascist ideology, on the other hand, tends to be pragmatic - that and the foundations of Fascist Italy was founded on a compromise between the Fascists and the Monarchy). At the same time, it could resemble the post-Stalinist USSR with various rival party factions and leaders competing racing their way to power to lead the regime when Benny dies. Especially on the case of the Deng Xiaoping-style reform, Fascist Italy could very well survive.

That said I found this with Italo Balbo reforming the Fascist Regime, using Deng Xiaoping Theory as a sort of idea for Balbo's reforms: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deng_Xiaoping_Theory
And rewording it, I made this as a sort of scenario.
I can see it go like this (This is really the first lines of Deng Xiaoping Theory's wikipedia page reworded by me with Balbo and Fascism that I did for fun):
Italo Balbo Thought (Italian:Italo Balbo Pensiero) is the series of political and economic ideologies first developed by Italian Fascist leader Italo Balbo. The theory seeks to reform or adapt Fascism or Classical Fascism to the existing socio-economic conditions of Italy and the world.

Balbo with this idea stressed opening Fascist Italy to the outside world, the implementation of colonial autonomy (two systems, one government), and advocated for Italian Fascism's adoption of political reform and economic liberalization. Italo Balbo Thought has often been referred to as Italian Neo-Fascism due to changing or updating the late Mussolini's old principles and favouring pragmatic policies.
 
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How would the Fascist ideology and movement look like as a whole after WW2? This is in the event of WW2 in the event Italy is in the Allied Powers. That and I could see the rise of Fascist movements with Fascism being legitimized as the ideology that helped beat the Nazis, and the Fascists try to emphasize a difference between "Sane and Moderate" Fascism and the "Insane and Hardcore" Nazism.

For Spain, I could see Francoist Spain maintain its Falangist, Fascist and National-Syndicalist policies, unlike OTL in which Francoist Spain basically "abandoned" Fascism, sidelined the Falangists, and turned to Authoritarian National Conservative. Also I imagine Austria being an Italian buffer, with the Italian-sponsored Austrofascists being brought back to power in Austria.
 
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