What if Argentina had invaded the Falklands Islands during WW2?

[Zachariah]

It was 26 September 1941, Nazi Germany consolidated the siege on Stalingrad, America had yet to suffer Pearl Harbor and declare war on the Axis and Britain was suffocated under the pounding of German bombs and at sea losing tens of thousands of vital shipping.

That same day in Buenos Aires an Argentine naval officer, Captain Ernesto Villanueva presented a paper titled “Army and Navy cooperation. Occupation of the Malvinas Islands”, a detailed operation to militarily recover the South Atlantic archipelago occupied by the British.

So reads a piece published in the Ushuaia daily Diario del Fin del Mundo (End of the world journal), in the Memory lane section, credited to Bernardo Veksler, and recalling events of September 1941: “This happened in our region: a plan to recover the Malvinas militarily was presented”

The plan to be considered at the Naval War School assessed the international stage of World War II and the resources it involved.

Captain Villanueva “believed that Great Britain was too occupied in other world theatres as to address the luck of a few small colonial islands” (Juan B. Yofre; Malvinas, the documented history).

The plan was set out in 34 typed pages and its mission was ”to restitute an archipelago that belongs to the country (Argentina), and which its strategic situation is of vital significance for the maritime defense of the nation“.

With this purpose the plan was to land at Uranie Bay, at Berkley Sound, and at Cox Bay establishing ”an operational basis at Port Louis, until the operation could move with certainty on to Port Stanley (Puerto Argentino)“.

The plan discarded the use of the air force and stated: ”taking control of Port Stanley with Army and Navy landing troops, operating in a surprise action, with the early dawn lights, from Uraine Bay, protecting the landing with vessels and aircraft from the Fleet, destroying the defense batteries with air-naval forces operating from Deseado...“

The task force would be made up of ”a battalion of Marines distributed in two battleships, two heavy cruisers, a light cruiser, twelve torpedo boats, a tanker and nine tracking vessels“. To this would be added another 750 members from the Army which would have the main task, ”taking control of Port Stanley“.

Since it was a joint operation, criticism was the responsibility of Lieutenant Colonel Benjamín Rattenbach and it was categorical: the 'coup' in itself did not offer much difficulties. What was really difficult was what came after: keeping the Islands against a reconquest attempt from the British”.

So then, what if Villanueva's plan to invade and conquer the Falklands/Malvinas had been approved by the Argentinian Naval War School and the Argentinian government, and the Argentinians had commenced their operation to invade and occupy the archipelago within the next couple of months, shortly prior to the impending Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor? How would the rest of the world's military powers have responded to the Argentinians' military operation against the British? And how much would it have changed the history of Argentina, and of Latin America, if this military operation had received the green light and gone ahead in Oct/Nov 1941?

 

[Bernard Woolley]

Pretty much discussed here.

 

[GeorgeUK]

Britain strikes back with a vengeance. Argentina's claim is forever tied to Nazi Germany and they are forced to permanently relinquish it.

 

[Zachariah]

Pretty much discussed here.

Not the same POD though- the actual paper which was presented to the Argentinian military command as a serious proposal to invade the Falklands was presented on 26th Sept 1941, and the POD here is that Rattenbach approves it instead of turning it down as he did IOTL (only to go after the Falklands himself some 40 years later), with the Argentinians implementing this specific plan. A year later, in the context of WW2, makes a big difference. And with the surprise attack on Pearl Harbor imminent, and the very real possibility of both military sneak attacks occurring within a fortnight of each other... Could the Argentinians' attack on Port Stanley and the Falklands potentially even have an impact on the effectiveness of the impending Japanese attack against Pearl Harbor? Could the butterflies fly over there that fast?

 

[Redbeard]

Even if Britain was pressed in NA and really couldn't influence much on the European continent there really wasn't many powers that could challenge the British outside the European continent, and Argentina certainly wasn't one of them.

The Argentinians might have some months of feeling "Masters of the South Atlantic" but then a British task force will be ready and Argentina done and for the next many decades labelled as not only an Nazi ally but also a stupid one (the Italians would feel relieved). A likely British might be based on one or two R-class BB, some cruisers and an old CV - like Furious, Eagle or Hermes and would be up against one or two old US built dreadnoughts (at least one of limited serviceability) and three modern cruisers (two Italian built with 6x7,5" each and one British built with 9x6"(triple turreted Arethusas)). By late 1941, early 42 British radar would be advanced enough to give a huge advantage in it self.

And if any of Argentina's neighbours had any claims on Argentinian assets, it would a great opportunity to take them home.

It might even be advantageous for the British if it has Churchill be less focussed on too ambitious plans in the Med.

 

[Asp]

Argentina gets its teeth kicked in. Way to make this mildly more interesting but not any less of a curbstomp: push this operation back to late 1939 when the Graf Spee cruised the South Atlantic and have it find safe harbor in Argentina unlike IOTL. They repair and rearm and then Nazi cruisers and the Argentinian Navy fight the British together. Alternatively push the Graf Spee's last voyage forward if that doesn't work.

 

[Bernard Woolley]

@Zachariah Yes, the POD is different, but a lot of the issues are similar.

 

[Zachariah]

@Zachariah Yes, the POD is different, but a lot of the issues are similar.

True, but unlike that question, the specifics of the Argentian Malvinas Invasion plan are all laid out, along with the composition of the task force entasked with seizing the Falklands from the British. So there's more scope to speculate as to whether or not the Argentinians' invasion of the Falklands Islands would have succeeded, how much their occupation force and defences could have been strengthened after that if they did succeed in taking the Falklands, and whether there'd have been any hope of defending the islands against an attempt by the British to retake them. And the fact that the Argentinian surprise attack would likely have been carried out literally as the Kido Butai were sailing en-route to Pearl Harbor, to carry out their own surprise attack, adds another dimension to the implications and potential impact of the Argentinians' actions. Don't you think?

 

[hzn5pk]

Not the same POD though- the actual paper which was presented to the Argentinian military command as a serious proposal to invade the Falklands was presented on 26th Sept 1941, and the POD here is that Rattenbach approves it instead of turning it down as he did IOTL (only to go after the Falklands himself some 40 years later), with the Argentinians implementing this specific plan. A year later, in the context of WW2, makes a big difference. And with the surprise attack on Pearl Harbor imminent, and the very real possibility of both military sneak attacks occurring within a fortnight of each other... Could the Argentinians' attack on Port Stanley and the Falklands potentially even have an impact on the effectiveness of the impending Japanese attack against Pearl Harbor? Could the butterflies fly over there that fast?

Did the Falkland Islands have a radar station in 1941? Also, I think that the Japanese attack on Pearl two weeks later will go down the same as OTL. It was a lazy Sunday morning for the USA Pac fleet, we were in negotiations with Japan in Washington, the same inexperienced army officer will be in charge of the radar station on Oahu that first detected the Japanese planes and thought they were a flight of American planes coming in ....... Pearl goes down the same.

If anything would change, perhaps the USA would think that the Japanese would attack Wake, Guam, and the Philippines. Those areas were already in the process of beefing up their defenses. What more could be done in two weeks? More fighter planes from Pearl dispersed across the Pacific? Probably not much as Wake was in the process of being reinforced when Pearl went down. Or what if instead of returning to Pearl on Sunday night after the attack, the Enterprise arrives back sooner after its ferry trip to Wake and is caught up in the attack! Scratch one flat top for the USA .... would have continuing butterflies ... same is true for Lexington that was ferrying planes to Midway. So if anything, an American reaction to the Falklands could be more dangerous in that it might place the precious carriers in Pearl at the time of the Japanese attack.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

The US might get involved. The Amphibious Forces Atlantic Fleet were stood up and had some training. A March or April 1942 invasion of the Falklands could be a good exercise to shake them out. Adm King had already become overly concerned about Axis inroads in South America. re: Plan RUBBER; the occupation of the north Brazilian coast. February 1942 could see a combined US/Brit fleet headed south to deal with this emergency.

 

[Coulsdon Eagle]

At the very best for the Argentine, the moment the war with Germany & Japan ends, a task force built around 3-4 carriers with modern battleships & cruisers will turn up, perhaps supported by the first true RN fleet train following experience with the USN in the Pacific. They may not even have to invade - simply blockade the islands and wait for all the sheep to be eaten.

It will just be a matter of time.

 

[Lost Freeway]

Britain strikes back with a vengeance. Argentina's claim is forever tied to Nazi Germany and they are forced to permanently relinquish it.

Would Argentina really care about that though?

 

[wtw]

Argentina becomes one of the first previews of Overlord and the combine US/Canadian/British Empire/Free European/Chilean/Paraguayian/Urugauyian/Brazilian armed forces will make it easier than the fight in North Africa. Present day Argentina is not in the G-20, its size is dramatically reduced. It loses Terra del Fuego most certainly.

 

[CalBear]

Outstanding plan for Buenos Aires to follow.

Line up with the LITERAL personification of Evil on this Earth (no matter what they tried to claim they will be seen as a de facto Reich Ally, especially considering the number of German immigrants in the country) pissing off not just the British and the Commonwealth but, most importantly, the United States. This is the sort of brilliance that Hitler himself made famous.

There was also a rather substantial later migration of Germans, mainly Jews and other opponents of the Hitler regime who had entered Argentina beginning in 1933. They will undoubtedly be turning handsprings at this alignment with the Reich.

As for what happens? Argentina finds itself at war with the entire English Speaking world by early 1942 with a total oil embargo from the U.S. probably its ability to do any international business curtailed since the Japanese are a LONG way off and the USN is not going to play nice after 12/7/41, and Germany is utterly blockaded and the Pound and Dollar zones are now closed to it. At some point in early fall (Southern Hemisphere) the Royal Navy, maybe with some USN amphibious assets, comes over the Horizon with half a dozen carriers and starts regular bombing of the Argentine capital once the FAA wipes out the Argentine navy (which was equipped with a small, but decent, core of "modern" ships, including two Italian designed and constructed CA, in addition to a number that were a few decades late to the breakers, but was no match from the RN). Some FAA pilot get the distinction of being the last person to sink an armored cruiser in combat (the Argentinian navy has an armored cruiser, ARA Pueyrredon, in commission until 1954 IOTL).

The British take back the Falklands, Argentina winds up with an economy even more disrupted than it was IOTL, and a whole bunch of folks get killed for no real purpose.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

So then, what if Villanueva's plan to invade and conquer the Falklands/Malvinas had been approved by the Argentinian Naval War School and the Argentinian government, and the Argentinians had commenced their operation to invade and occupy the archipelago within the next couple of months, shortly prior to the impending Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor? How would the rest of the world's military powers have responded to the Argentinians' military operation against the British? And how much would it have changed the history of Argentina, and of Latin America, if this military operation had received the green light and gone ahead in Oct/Nov 1941?

At some point in the next 6 months - Argentina coughs awkwardly - looks at its feet and mumbles something to the UK along the lines of 'We were just keeping it warm for you' without making eye contact and then makes a hopeful comments about Corned Beef

 

[Cockroach]

The big question is: Why?

This isn't 1982 with Britain at the bottom of it's fall and Argentina run by a tin-pot military dictatorship right on it's last legs. This is Britain tied down by a war but still near it's peak, Argentina under a civilian (if rather corrupt) government exporting an utter heap of produce to the poms...

In short, they're not gonna jump to invading the Falklands just because some naval officer of middling rank and no particular distinction scrawls some plans on the back of a beer mat (okay, mildly exaggerating, but 34 pages, likely in draft form with, say double line spacing, and a lot of space consumed by even a simple order of battle doesn't amount to a serious plan).

To give it a serious prospect of happening you probably need to move the 1943 coup back by about four years and make it explicitly fascist in nature...

 

[juanml82]

The plan was presented in late September, Pearl Harbor was in early December and Britain was Argentina's main export customer. Even if the pro-British president at the time gets brainwashed and decides to nuke the Argentine economy, it simply can't be put into action before the Japanese strike Pearl Harbor. And even if the Navy is convinced that the UK is too busy to react, the USA certainly isn't, so the plan gets shelved.

 

[CalBear]

The big question is: Why?

This isn't 1982 with Britain at the bottom of it's fall and Argentina run by a tin-pot military dictatorship right on it's last legs. This is Britain tied down by a war but still near it's peak, Argentina under a civilian (if rather corrupt) government exporting an utter heap of produce to the poms...

In short, they're not gonna jump to invading the Falklands just because some naval officer of middling rank and no particular distinction scrawls some plans on the back of a beer mat (okay, mildly exaggerating, but 34 pages, likely in draft form with, say double line spacing, and a lot of space consumed by even a simple order of battle doesn't amount to a serious plan).

To give it a serious prospect of happening you probably need to move the 1943 coup back by about four years and make it explicitly fascist in nature...

Sadly, Power Point wasn't a thing yet, so no briefing slides.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Did the Falkland Islands have a radar station in 1941?

Did the islands even have an airfield in 1941?

 

[dcontreras]

Brazil declared war on Germany and sent troops to Italy. Might not they, an obvious ally of the British, also be used to fight on behalf of their ally against Argentina? The Argentines would have to be forced to defend themselves on the South American Continent against Brazil's army and navy, and any Air Force they might have. In addition, the US would no doubt contribute to their ally's cause. Argentina would have bitten way much more than they could chew if they invaded the Falklands during World War II.