What if Argentina had invaded the Falklands Islands during WW2?

This is assuming that the engagement is at range. Bad weather can come in, and 12" guns are ruinous when they hit anything less than a battleship. Yes, cruisers could win--but perhaps not, as well. ONE 12" shell has the potential to make a cruiser go BOOM! Unlikely, but something to be aware of--the battleship only need get lucky once.
As Aber pointed out, you're being a little pessimistic here. Remember that Graf Spee's guns were probably more powerful, being a lot newer - and during JW51B a bunch of destroyers stood up to Hipper and Lutzow including taking main armament hits (the Soviet naval authorities in Murmansk didn't believe who they had been fighting until they found the shell base from IIRC one of Hipper's guns and measured it for them). The other point is that bad weather probably favours the RN - they're likely to have radar, which the Argentinean dreadnoughts certainly will not have.
 

Redbeard

Banned
This is assuming that the engagement is at range. Bad weather can come in, and 12" guns are ruinous when they hit anything less than a battleship. Yes, cruisers could win--but perhaps not, as well. ONE 12" shell has the potential to make a cruiser go BOOM! Unlikely, but something to be aware of--the battleship only need get lucky once.

I must say that "The Fireflies of Port Stanley" is my favorite Falklands tale yet. For those who weren't around the board then, here's the link to an amazing tale:
https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/the-fireflies-of-port-stanley.262286/

From a quick search it appears like at least one of the Argentinian Dreadnoughts was in bad shape by WWII, but anyway a single R-class at the scene create an Argentinian "bad hair day".

But most interesting is what radar the RN ships has. The type 273 was introduced in 1941 and was the set with which DoY found Scharnhorst at 45.000 yards in 1943. The Type 271 (March 1941) was similar but intended for cruisers and downwards. The Type 284 was intedended for main battery control and in service from 1940, but at the moment I don't know how fast it "spread" on the various ships. I think 100% blindfire still was a virgin by September 1941 but Type 271/273/284 sets would anyway dramatically improve the situation for the owners. In April 1941 the RN at Matapan used radar to detect targets but traditional night tactics (flares and searchlights) for the actual firing. RN would be dramatically superior to the Argentinian navy in fighting in bad visibility and in clear weather can outrange the BBs.

The Argentinians had spotting aircraft on its three modern cruisers, but a single RN carrier would make the life of an Argentinian spotter lousy and short.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
I don't have any figures but I reckon its a safe bet the permanent resident non British Isles population on the Islands would be countable on the fingers of one hand.
These days that would be false - there's a fair number of Chileans and St. Helenans, and roughly a dozen Argentinians (all by nationality) of whom several % of the population identifies as Chilean or St. Helenan.
I think it's likely there were some Chileans and St. Helenans in WW2 as well.
 
I'm not saying that the battleships mean that Argentina well win by any means, but even an obsolete battleship is something that can not be ignored. "A single RN carrier" is a fine thing to bring along, but the RN was strapped for flat tops at the time.

The RN, if they decide to do this on a shoestring, is taking chances, and they lack the resources--yet--to do it right. Even a shoestring mission will probably win, even without the USA, but could also run into trouble.
 
Zachariah wrote:
So then, what if Villanueva's plan to invade and conquer the Falklands/Malvinas had been approved by the Argentinian Naval War School and the Argentinian government, and the Argentinians had commenced their operation to invade and occupy the archipelago within the next couple of months, shortly prior to the impending Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor? How would the rest of the world's military powers have responded to the Argentinians' military operation against the British? And how much would it have changed the history of Argentina, and of Latin America, if this military operation had received the green light and gone ahead in Oct/Nov 1941?

I wonder if this might be looked at a different way? Take for example the British efforts towards the US:
https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/what-if-argentina-had-invaded-the-falklands-islands-during-ww2.416067/page-2#post-14759476

"What if?" German efforts in South America were designed to increase tensions among the potential "allied" nations? (Note: regard my historical "knowledge" as somewhat lacking as I go on here :) ) Imagine that, for example Graf Spee sails as per OTL but turns and puts into Buenos Aries and turns itself in for 'interment' with the Germany Navy "graciously" granting the ship to the Argentine Navy shortly after. Granted Argentina can neither afford the upkeep, let alone repair of the cruiser but it significantly un-balances the dynamics of the region. Enough "pushes" of various types might encourage tougher rhetoric from the government which will make all parties nervous and selectively leaking this plan to the Allies might in effect push the British to make moves of a misappropriate 'defensive' nature towards Argentina along with US pressure and/or intervention.

A stretch of course but it would cost the Germans a raider-cruiser they were probably going to lose anyway if not directly in battle trying to break out again to shadowing and eventual interception on the high seas. Toss in some "goodwill" shipments of arms and equipment from some of the Axis powers on board 'neutral' ships, (for the good treatment of their interned crew, heck it helps some if you can get some stuff delivered to Brazil as well since they are shown in the above "map" as one of the two 'nominally' Axis supported future states in South America) and tensions are going to be very high AND some attention is going to be drawn that way from both British and American sources.

Enough to be effective? Probably not but any little bit helps.

Thoughts?

Randy
 
Brazil's foreign policy under Vargas was basically taking whatever offer was made -mainly by Germany and USA- to the other and seeing if they have a better one for all of the 30s, long before the war began. I understand both were aware that was what he was doing but the reasons why they were acting didn't change.

Ultimately it is hard to see any likely scenario where Brazil wouldn't go with the USA and eventually join the war along them as they offer more at lower cost than Germany does.
 
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