I believe so. I'll see if I can find some stats for the Type-89 to give us a better idea of the possible numbers.
Wagner’s Germany: An Axis Victory TL
- Thread starter CrimsonKing
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According to "Tank Encyclopedia" http://www.tanks-encyclopedia.com/ww2/jap/Type_89_I-Go.php a total of 409 Type-89 of all types were built. The further states that it is believed that at least a dozen of the Type-89s were damaged at Khalkin Go out of a total of 34 tanks and that most of the damaged tanks were repaired.
Wikipedia states that the Type -89 was made with steel plate instead of the usual soft iron plate used on most early Japanese tanks and that the Type-89 was the first massed produce tank to use a diesel engine.
The Type-89 was used in China, the invasion of the Philippines, the Battle of Malaya, and Burma campaign.
I think it would be reasonable to say that ITTL that at least 200 to 250 Type-89s could be converted by August of 1942, which according to an alt-short story I read in "Rising Sun Triumphant" would be the ideal time for Japan to launch an invasion of the USSR.
The type-1 TD would of course be supported by large numbers of light tank and medium tanks
Wikipedia states that the Type -89 was made with steel plate instead of the usual soft iron plate used on most early Japanese tanks and that the Type-89 was the first massed produce tank to use a diesel engine.
The Type-89 was used in China, the invasion of the Philippines, the Battle of Malaya, and Burma campaign.
I think it would be reasonable to say that ITTL that at least 200 to 250 Type-89s could be converted by August of 1942, which according to an alt-short story I read in "Rising Sun Triumphant" would be the ideal time for Japan to launch an invasion of the USSR.
The type-1 TD would of course be supported by large numbers of light tank and medium tanks
Absolutely love your idea of utilizing TD as a cheaper faster alternative to main battle tanks for Japan. Brilliant! I think this is very feasible solution to give the Japanese armored units the real punch they lacked.
I do question how effective they will be though. Germany's armored doctrine was more important then the actual quality or quantity of tanks they possessed, particularly in the early part of the war. Yeah they overwhelmed Poland, but France had more tanks and most people agree better quality tanks on whole then the Wehrmacht. The difference was how the Germans massed and used combined arms in order to create breakthroughs and encirclements. This is the part I question whether Japan could pull off.
I don't see where the Army ever really got the combined arms thing down. The army version of the Stuka, the Ki-51 "Sonia", was ok but I've never read that they used it the way the Germans used the Stuka.
Obergruppenführer Smith
Banned
Without the industry to back combined arms, how are you going to get to that point?
You make some very good points and I agree that the Japanese won't be able to use the art of combined arms the way the Germans did in the first years of the war but the Japanese have been working closer with Wagner's Germany and General Yamashita IOTL visited Germany in Dec. 1940 and studied combined arms tactics from the Germans themselves.
I think Japan's best strategy for this war would be to launch a limited offensive and then dig in deep and fight defensively and this is where the TDs will perform best. The Soviets main concern will be their western and southern fronts, the Japanese only need to hold their lines till the Soviet state collapses.
This may be a lot to expect from the Japanese though, I think they would most likely launch a much more aggressive offense than necessary but Yamashita was a good general, IMO the best the Japanese had and I think he understood better than most Japanese generals of the time, the strength and limits of Japan's army.
Did a bit more research on the type-89 and it seems the Japanese were starting to phase out the type-89 in early 1942 so its possible that with the OTL battles of 1942 (Malaya, Singapore, Philippines) butterflied away, there could be up to 300 and more of the type-89 (Type-1 Ho-Ro TD) available for the invasion of the USSR in the late summer of 1942.
Earlier you mentioned Rising Sun Triumphant, and reading up on the short story in question - Hokushin - I think that the goals there would work for a limited offensive as you suggest, i.e. Japan severing and holding down a coastal segment of the Soviet Far East running from Khabarovsk Krai in the north to Primorsky Krai in the south, with second phase operations aimed at buffering those regions to the west. Also, Soviet Sakhalin, long coveted by Japan.
Some in Japan will probably again complain about how meager the gains are (ridiculous IMO Khabarovsk Krai alone is about half the size of European France), but with the British Empire teetering on the brink of collapse and Myanmar a Japanese satellite, in the short-term securing modest but bountiful gains near Japan would serve sufficiently as a resource base under direct control to increase Japan's soft power (it's amazing how far the Axis can go with actual understanding of soft power) with which to extend influence into South Asia and the Middle East. That could actually net Japan greater gains in the long-term.
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Yes that is the story (Hokushin) I was thinking of and the type of campaign I think would work best for Japan against the Soviet Union.
The implied postwar fragmentation of the Soviet remnant there could also happen here. Wagner and the more reasonable Axis of this TL would know and accept it's impossible to occupy the vast Soviet territory in its entirety, so they'd probably tear away what they can, vassalize what they can vassalize but can't annex, and isolate/render impotent the rest.
The question then becomes what will America think about all this. The 1944 elections will definitely be interesting to see.
Well I think Japan had the technical ability to do everything we've discussed. While their industry wasn't as robust as say France or Italy, they had enough capacity to manage their current needs.
What I think they lacked was time! To practice the doctrines and "get things right" takes time and money (Not to mention the assets). To me that would be their biggest obstacle.
I fully agree with CORTEZ#9 in that limited attack and gains, and then fighting a defensive battle is most likely the best strategy for Japan against the USSR. Japan's objective is to tie down troops and prevent them from being recalled West to fight the Germans.
After the collapse of the USSR Japan will share in the spoils!
Good point about the collaboration between Japan and Germany. I think Japan needs to push as far as it can because you're right about the USSR.
Remember the political and economic center of gravity is West of the Urals, so it wouldn't surprise me if the Soviets withdrew from the Far East to shorten defensive lines and create more available units. That obviously wouldn't be their first choice but they're fighting for their lives.
The way Wagner has build up the German army ITTL and better organization with Germany's allies (and if Turkey joins in), the Soviets are going to be in a really tough position. The USSR won't be able to trade space for time as they did IOTL, they will most likely fight hard for every inch of ground and this will wear em down. The Soviets wont be able to move troops from the east to the west and won't be able to send reinforcements and supplies (at least not in great quantity) to their eastern front either.
All this makes things better for Germany and Japan.
Great update as always. One thing that I see working in the Axis favor soon is that, with the combat ready units being fed into the meat grinder of Stalin's counterattacks, the ones which will replace them will probably be even more quickly trained and ill-equipped than the ones lost. that will likely tilt the balance of losses even further towards the Axis.
Also wondering, where is Manstien in this? I assume he's at the German command position somewhere?
Also wondering, where is Manstien in this? I assume he's at the German command position somewhere?
It is noteworthy to me that the first diesel engine tank to enter large scale production was Japanese, given the overall backwardness associated with Japan's AFVs during the WWII era.
I agree on the overall issue with regard to doctrine being more important than the quality of the tanks in explaining the success of the panzer divisions (arguably their most important equipment advantage was that each tank had a radio making coordination much easier) and the difficulties Japan would have in adopting similar tactics on a short timeframe, however on the French campaign in 1940 I have heard that many of the French tanks which were on paper qualitatively superior were quite unreliable at the time and as a result didn't perform as their specifications would lead one to believe. With regard to economic gains for Japan, I can say the ETL will be sharing some of what is to be gained in European Russia.
I don't disagree here, which is why the tactics the Japanese will have to adopt will aim for slower and more measured advances.
Much appreciated, such a number will be used when the Far East is described, which will be the chapter after next.
Without giving away too many spoilers, I can say that this is the kind of strategy which will be adopted ITTL.
Not that this is an unimportant subject, but here spoilers make it impossible to me to comment further.
The overall Soviet situation is indeed much worse than in OTL and this will be reflected in subsequent events.
Greatly appreciated.
The attrition you bring up will become quite apparent. Manstein will feature prominently in the next chapter.
Here's a new and improved pic of the Type-1 Ho-Ro and I made a mistake about which side the gun was mounted on due to quality of the original picture I used to work with. I learned something interesting, the Type-89 came equipped with a radio which was pretty rare for a tank of the 1930s, most British and French tanks of the same era did not come equipped with radios so the Japanese were a little more forward thinking than they are often given credit for.
The Type-1 would be a little slower than the Type-89 due to the weight of its new gun but IMO would still be a formidable weapon.
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Here's a new and improved pic of the Type-1 Ho-Ro and I made a mistake about which side the gun was mounted on due to quality of the original picture I used to work with. I learned something interesting, the Type-89 came equipped with a radio which was pretty rare for a tank of the 1930s, most British and French tanks of the same era did not come equipped with radios so the Japanese were a little more forward thinking than they are often given credit for.
The Type-1 would be a little slower than the Type-89 due to the weight of its new gun but IMO would still be a formidable weapon.
I like this design but it needs a 30 cal machine gun in front of the commanders hatch.
While those tank destroyers are a good stop-gap solution, I think Japan should still go ahead with the Chi-Nu as a long-term investment. It's the first proper medium tank they ever made after all (the Chi-Ha by all rights should be a light tank), and would be the foundation for all future tank models they make ITTL (it is the Japanese contemporary - if late for a few years - of the Panzer IV).